1. 10-08-10 04:21 PM #1
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    Fissics MMA +3.5 Thread

    I have been doing pretty well with underdog +3.5 picks so I have decided to start posting and keeping track of them.

    BOL to anyone that tails, or fades

    Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II
    5* KJ Noons +3.5 (+158)
    3* Gesias "JZ"Cavalcante +3.5 (-183)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 10-09-10 08:45 AM #2
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    Thinking about adding 1* Marloes Coenen +3.5 (+155)

    Any thoughts?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 10-09-10 09:59 AM #3
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    I personally think Coenen is the best dog on the card.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 10-09-10 10:00 AM #4
    Eccocide
    2010 MMA Results: +69.3225 units
    Eccocide's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 2,126
    Betpoints: 1256

    I've went back and forth on the Kaufman/Coenen fight and can't come to a conclusion so I cant comment on a winner. But I'll say this about +3.5 for this fight. Its a 5 round championship fight so +3.5 isn't as solid as it looks IMO.

    You are basically looking at 3 major scoring options of 50-45, 49-46 and 48-47.

    If 1 judge scores it 49-46 or 4 rounds to 1 for Kaufman, you are in a tough hole to dig out of with +3.5, whereas in a 3 round fight, the person can lose on all 3 judges scorecards 29-28 and you still win. I just think theres too much variance in a 5-round fight for +3.5 to be worth it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 10-09-10 10:24 AM #5
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    After re-watching some of their fights, I think Coenen fighting at 135 would make this a pretty live bet. She would have to pick up 2 rounds for the +3.5 to cover, and I think she should be able to pull it off with her explosiveness.

    I went ahead and placed one unit on it. Thanks for the input guys.

    Added:
    Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II
    1* Marloes Coenen +3.5 (+155)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 10-09-10 10:32 AM #6
    lasker
    lasker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-10
    Posts: 1,683
    Betpoints: 114

    Personally I think there's more value in Coenen straight up at +250. I think if she wins any round, it's by winning the fight via submission. Otherwise I think Kaufman will win the rounds with her superior striking. Just my two cents... good luck!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 10-09-10 10:34 AM #7
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Quote Originally Posted by lasker View Post
    Personally I think there's more value in Coenen straight up at +250. I think if she wins any round, it's by winning the fight via submission. Otherwise I think Kaufman will win the rounds with her superior striking. Just my two cents... good luck!
    Yee I would only do Coenen straight up at +250 as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 10-09-10 10:38 AM #8
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    I think she will be able to gain top control a few times which would help her get some points. Unfortunately sub attempts don't seem to be worth much, but who knows what crazy crap judges will pull tonight.

    I do understand that I lose value not taking the straight up ML, but +155 with a bit of extra security aint too bad.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 10-11-10 10:25 AM #9
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    Well, not a great start.

    1-2

    -8.94u
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 10-16-10 03:21 PM #10
    Fissics
    Fissics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 381
    Betpoints: 1

    UFC 120 Bisping vs Akiyama
    5* Yoshihiro Akiyama +3½ (-130)
    5* Carlos Condit +3½ (-155)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Boxing, MMA & UFC Betting | Next Thread »