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Newb question: What is your picking process?
I love watching MMA and I might as well try to make some money on it. What have you guys found most profitable when making a pick?
Reviewing fight video? If so how many fights?
Time off?
Which camp they train out of?
Skill set vs skill set? (ie: wrestler vs kick boxer)
Interviews?
Weigh-ins?
Gut feeling?
First time fighting in a big event?
I'm just looking for the best strategy that has worked for everyone in the past.
Thanks!
All of the things you've said are important but mainly a fighters skill set and his past experience is mostly a deciding factor to look into and then weighing them against their opponent. Interviews may help to see what they are doing but all fighters of course will say they are fine and they are training hard. Another thing to look at is to get other people's opinions and their reasoning behind their picks.
I generally go on skill set, wrestlers will make you a bunch of money betting mma, whether you feel like they are the better fighter or not. Also weigh ins have been a good tool for last minute bets. Overweight fighters or fighters that look emaciated are great fades
Your OP highlights a lot of the key things.
Personally, I like to review as much tape as possible on the fighters involved to brush up, and anticipate where the fight will go, and who will have the edge, presumably. Look for strengths / weaknesses, etc. Although this has been getting more difficult lately due in large part to the Zuffa crackdown on the interwebs footage unfortunately. And it can be difficult to get decent footage on some of the lesser known / up n coming fighters too, so that can cause an issue.
Sometimes, it works great. For instance, earlier in the year, Mitrione over Kimbo was probably my favorite line of the year. You had a public hyped Kimbo with admitted arthritis fighting against a guy who was training with Duke Roofus (Pat Barry, etc). And Mitrione was the doggie... it was lovely.
Then there are times where sh*t just goes awry, like the Manhoef vs Robbie Lawler fight. It played out just as anticipated until Lawler landed his one punch ;(
I prefer to cap any fight i'm highly interested in before checking the board such that I don't get a biased view. Then I like to compare with some of the cats that I consider to be pretty sharp bettors. Again, some times it doesn't always work out... see: the recent bout between Mario Miranda and Demian Maia. This doesn't mean I then come to the board pigheaded and stubborn, as often times there will be quite a bit of knowledge dropped that raises good points to consider. Just keep everything in perspective and interpret as objectively as possible -- that's another key -- don't let fandom of a certain fighter or camp cloud your judgment.
GL to you.
Last edited by Educ8d Degener8; 09-15-10 at 01:23 AM.
Watching alot of film and breaking down the styles of each opponent usually works pretty good for me. Also looking out for things like fighters coming off injury's, motivation, and age can play a big factor.
The "new born baby" factor is KEY for me in making decisions!
you hit a lot of em in the first post
watching line movement does help as well
Pick the darkest fighter....just kidding
[quote=Educ8d Degener8;6382391]Your OP highlights a lot of the key things.
Sometimes, it works great. For instance, earlier in the year, Mitrione over Kimbo was probably my favorite line of the year. You had a public hyped Kimbo with admitted arthritis fighting against a guy who was training with Duke Roofus (Pat Barry, etc). And Mitrione was the doggie... it was lovely.
Exactly! I look for a lot of the hyped up fights. Know where the majority of public money is going to go, and then go the other way to find value. I've made a lot of money on Brock Lesnar simply because the majority of people think he's only a WWE fall out. Like his line with Carwin, I believe he wins that fight 75-80% of the time. So I find value when the book has him at -135 to -140. To me it's trying to find that value. Also look at fight history to determine if a fighter has fought anyone with the same frame and style. Where did he struggle or succeed.
Best of luck!!
Last edited by BIGDAY; 09-15-10 at 02:59 PM.
first i look at the names a see if anything jumps out, then look at odds, review records on sherdog trying to see what type of competion they have faced and how they faired, look at displine (karate, bjj, wrestling etc.) then i review a bit of tape...
honestly where i have had most success is betting with wrestlers vs bjj and or pure striker guys....
haha as Lt. Frank Drebin wisely once said... "All I know is never bet on the white guy!"Originally Posted by vassman86
I think picking fights is a combination of a lot of things, rarely do I look at one reason as why a fighter would win.
Just about everything has already been mentioned, but another thing I like to look at is athleticism. I always like to put my money on the guy made of fast-twitch muscles. Jose Aldo & Benson Henderson come to mind immediately. Some guys are just born with gifts that other guys just don't have. Of course, heart comes into play, too.
Skill Set, Weigh Ins and Record.
If you're a fan and have seen most of the fighters fight, you can make decisions off the top of your head on outcomes sometimes. If you hear about a fight and already have an idea of who is going to win check the lines. If the lines are good either make the bet or review the things you listed. Usually if you have a clear winner in your head it's going to be a good play. Also make sure you read up what other people post for the opposite side and see if that changes your mind at all. The best advice is to pick the fighters you feel strongly will win and follow your own judgement.
Just lay everything you have on Lesnar when he fights. The guy is a complete beast. He defeated Carwin after a long absence from an illness, showing tremendous heart in that match! Win or lose, you can rest assured that he always gives his all.
Thanks everyone for all the great tips. So no one uses MMA Math?
Try not to, one example is: Maia beat Sonnen by sub in less than a minute, Marquardt knocked out Maia in less than a minute = Marquardt over Sonnen!
Lol. MMA Math is pretty absurd. The above example illustrates it perfectly.
Aside from the advantage that wrestlers have, I like to look for fights that are likely to be mostly a stand-up battle and then pick the fighter that has the best movement (both head and footwork). As amazing as UFC fighters are, a lot still have limited technical boxing ability IMO. They may all know how to throw a right hook, a jab, etc... but the intricacies of head movement and footwork are often overlooked. Admittedly, this is partly due to the penchant to want to put on an 'exciting' fight and look for the knockout, meaning that fighters forget about their technique and just plant their feet looking for the KO. Frankie Edgar against Penn is an example of were u have a perceived great striker in BJ Penn who ended up being outclassed by Frankie who had superior head movement, footwork and feints. Same can be said of the Sherk vs Edgar fight. As I said there arent many fighters in the UFC that have Edgar's level of boxing IMO, there are fighters that have movement but this isn't necessarily always constructive or efficient movement such as Bisping (see Hendo fight!). The reasoning behind me doing a straddle on Oliveira to beat Escudero by sub/ Escudero win by decision rather than Escudero to win by TKO/KO was due to the fact that Oliveira is fast and knows how to move in and out meaning that it was unlikely that Escudero would catch him clean with a shot. Im looking at a similar situation occuring in the Cerrone vs Varner fight. Cerrone likes to just come forward throwing kicks and straight jabs (yes he has technical striking) however he doesnt have great head movement, footwork and also drops his hands at times. Varner meanwhile has good allround boxing, he'll come at Cerrone from different angles and mix his striking up with takedowns, whilst taking minimal punishment due to his movement.
MMA math doesn't work when you're looking at only common opponents. However, when you're looking at a fighter who has had a number of fights you may be able to find trends in how they fare against opponents of similar skill sets (ie. how they do vs. greco guys, bjj guys, kickboxers etc.) Their history versus certain styles is good to know, but also be aware of their current camp and what areas they are focusing on improving. Fighters are always evolving now.
As most here have said, wrestlers get an advantage because of their positional dominance and the judges love of anyone who controls top position. When a wrestler fights a BJJ guy who feels safe on his back, then this is an easy Wrestler by decision bet. Judges love wrestlers and hate BJJ, so unless you see a fight like that ending before decision... always lean towards wrestlers.
propose to remove the comfortable apartment
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wtf
sometimes i'll have a sudden revelation and rush to place a large wager
like seeing jason miller playing air hockey with bisping on TUF. I remember thinking miller was ridiculously slow and poor to react to the pucks... how is he not going to get boxed up by bisping?
Lol, I noticed this too. Miller was straight up uncoordinated, plus he choked cause there was 10 g's on the line and thats roughly the same as his fight paycheck, while Bisping was just having fun. What a clown.
Didnt Bisping slip off the table tho and crack his head?!
Dude he didn't slip. Bisping is just so jacked when he walks around between fights the table broke after he stood upon it, victorious.
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