1. #1
    KCJMAC
    MMA
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    Blog Post: My MMA Wagers - Room for improvement

    I haven't been wagering seriously on MMA for very long, but I enjoy it and I am constantly looking for ways to improve. So I thought I would write down what I am doing and what I could do to improve. And I decided to share the steps that I'm using in case anyone else is interested, and to see if anyone wants to compare notes or has any feedback.

    This is what I do today, along with some things I think I should be doing:

    1) Analysis
    a) The fighters
    i) Records
    ii) Finishes
    iii) Camps
    iv) Rankings
    v) Common opponents
    vi) Styles
    b) The fight
    i) Matchup
    ii) Ways to win
    iii) Other factors (e.g. ring rust, difficult weight cut, etc.)
    c) The lines (money, parlay, prop)
    i) Available now
    ii) Likelihood of movement, direction, and amount (not yet fully implemented)
    2) Wagering
    a) Vig (not yet fully implemented)
    b) Kelly Criterion (not yet implemented)
    3) Gathering and documenting results
    4) Incorporating additional information into analysis (not yet fully implemented)



    Realistically, I think I'm doing a couple of things well in the process, but I have several more things I can improve significantly on. For example, I seem to be better than expected at analyzing fights and predicting outcomes. However I need to improve a lot more in the following areas:
    • Determining likelihood of line movement, direction, and amount - I do this a bit now, but I am not formally tracking it and my analysis is pretty rudimentary. This is probably the weakest part of my current process, since it doesn't seem very intuitive to me and I'm not very experienced at it.
    • Formally factoring vig into betting decisions - I calculate the vig and my expectation now, and if the vig is less than 6% and my expectation is greater than 15%, I typically make the bet. I think I should probably be subtracting the vig from my expectation and then ranking potential wagers by that number to determine my bets. Not sure if this is how others do this.
    • Using Kelly Criterion - I've read about it and I understand it, but I haven't started using it to size my bets yet. I'm not in any danger of burning through my bankroll, so I'll probably start using Kelly (.5) once I have a losing event.
    • Incorporating additional information post-fight - I need to be more diligent about doing this. I think about the fight outcomes in relationship to my analysis and wagers, but I should be documenting my thoughts. I probably should also consider coming up with post-fight estimates of winning for each fight I bet. For example, the best line I could get on Jon Fitch at UFC 117 was -120, or a 55% chance of beating Thiago Alves. I estimated his chances of winning as at least 66%, and bet accordingly. After watching Fitch win the fight in dominant fashion, I would re-estimate his chances of winning the fight as higher, maybe 75%.
    Does anyone else do anything similar or significantly different? Am I leaving out important steps? I would be interested in discussing either way, and am open to criticism.

  2. #2
    lasker
    lasker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-10
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    Very good post, KCJMAC. I cap more or less the same way, although I do try to implement Kelly criterion as best I can. I feel I had a good read for the Fitch fight (I had 70% as a conservative estimate) and ended up betting the most on that one, plus I also included it in some successful parlays. I'm not considering line movement, however, and it's really something I ought to do more of. I want to have a better sense which way the line is going to move and then bet on my preferred fighter at the optimal (or near-optimal) price.

    I also like to look at are interviews, whether video or transcribed. It's not the deciding factor, but I feel that knowing more about a fighter's character, intelligence, and work ethic can sometimes influence my decision.

    Another thing to watch out for: when one fighter is coming off of a spectacular victory (or more than one), they tend to be a bit overvalued. There are plenty of examples, but the best one I can think of is Houston Alexander after his quick KO's of Jardine and Sakara. He then came into his fight against Thiago Silva as the favorite, and I immediately capitalized on what I knew was an erroneous line.

    I really feel that MMA is easier to make money on than most other sports. But, as always, it requires some diligent research.

  3. #3
    Straight Cash
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    Join Date: 11-20-09
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    I really feel that MMA is easier to make money on than most other sports. But, as always, it requires some diligent research.

    I completely agree with this...

  4. #4
    illmatick
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    WEC and UFC are becoming a lot less easier imo, lines are considerably sharper than they were just 2 years ago, fights are lot more competitive now.. seems like just yesterday I could pick off 4 or 5 openers and have them all close at least 40 cents my way, now I'm lucky if i can consistently find more than 2 per card

    Just look at a guy like brainiac who killed it for years by selectively betting chalk, all of a sudden he goes bust in a 6 month period

    I think the most value in the next year or so is going to be found in the +150 to +240 range
    Last edited by illmatick; 08-12-10 at 11:42 PM.

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