1. #1
    BIGDAY
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    Almeida / Hughes

    Just wondering what people's thoughts were on this fight? Fight scares me a bit, as initially I thought Almeida as I found him at -170. Found Hughes at +155. Hughes has quietly won a couple fights, granted Serra and Gracie are questionable competition, but what does he have left? Is the value in Hughes at +155? He does fight safe and I believe he has undervalued BJJ. I think my bet will be that the fight goes to a dec when that line comes out.

    Other thoughts?

  2. #2
    BIGDAY
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    Also figured this fight could use a separate thread as the line movement has been wild!
    Let's keep an eye on this one...

  3. #3
    lasker
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    I think there should be value on a hughes by decision prop; that's the only way he wins this fight.

  4. #4
    BIGDAY
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    Fight goes all 3 rounds is -190. I'll throw a unit on that I think.

  5. #5
    Vaughany
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    Big play on it going to decision for me.

  6. #6
    JuicedUp
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    I like almeida but it seems everyone is on almeida. That scares me a little.

  7. #7
    illmatick
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    can't believe I missed the opener on almeida

  8. #8
    Straight Cash
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    Hughes might be a decent play as a dog, a small play.

  9. #9
    Ryangene
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    Very tough fight to pick a winner. If anything i'll throw a small play on Hughes. Good fight to watch is the main thing!

  10. #10
    Kaladarus
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Big play on it going to decision for me.
    this might be the best play easily

  11. #11
    36mafia
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    like hughes as a dog here
    will be the best wrestler almeida has faced, has an underrated ground game, and already beat him at adcc about a year ago
    both have shit standup so i wouldnt doubt this would go to a dec either

  12. #12
    brooks85
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    that ADCC match was 10 years ago

  13. #13
    brooks85
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    here is the hughes vs horn in the quarterfinals(hughes match after almeida), the choreographed match that got them banned from adcc

    Last edited by brooks85; 07-15-10 at 02:55 PM.

  14. #14
    Mr.Kitty
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    Hard fight to predict, Hughes last fight was ridiculous, him and Renzo both looked old(or/and ringrusty), and Renzo gased completely . Hughes will decide where this fight goes, he is without a doubt the better wrestler with good ground and pound and underrated BJJ.

    I think Almeida will look better then his last fight when he was new to welterweight with the weight cutting and all. His stand-up looked improved and hes one of the bigger guys in this division now. I favor Almeida right now, he wants revenge for Renzo. But i dont think im gonna bet this fight cuz its hard to tell how good these fighters are right now. How motivated are Hughes and how good are Almeida at welterweight.

  15. #15
    brooks85
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    im on the same page as juicedup, months ago when I saw this matchup announced I figured the minority would be on almeida and I would get myself a nice dog number. With the line flipping on almeida/hughes, usually I stick with the opening favorite in these situations. So as an almeida backer, this flip on the line is the last thing I wanted to see. I already have some money on almeida so im going to take hughes by decision and just stay away from this one, which is unfortunate because I have been waiting months for this one but I can't ignore that all the money likes almeida.

  16. #16
    36mafia
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    Quote Originally Posted by brooks85 View Post
    that ADCC match was 10 years ago

    haha i love my sources

  17. #17
    vassman86
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    Too bad Almeida isn't still a ML underdog. That'd be great value.

  18. #18
    BIGDAY
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    Hate to say it but Hughes impressed me with that crafty sub... I had a larger bet on the fight going the distance but did have a small play on Hughes +165. Interested to see who he draws next~

  19. #19
    stefan084
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    i don't know how crafty that sub was,more like brute strength. he really shouldn't have been able to submit him from that spot but he's freakishly strong. also i'm not sure almeida fully knew what was going on at that point

  20. #20
    KCJMAC
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    Pretty good breakdown of the submission here if anyone is interested:

    http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/8/9/...op-matt-hughes

    There was more technique involved than I originally thought.

  21. #21
    Kaladarus
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    Added embarrassment to submit gracie's student. He tried to do the same thing to Royce, but he wouldn't tap. Kind of a funny way to finish the fight though. Not many expected Hughes to win by submission.

  22. #22
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    i don't know, i though a BJJ master like Almeida should have had some answer for that choke, looked like he just stood there and took it

  23. #23
    BIGDAY
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    I guess that's what I mean, I've never really seen that sub before. I agree, one would have to have pretty good stregth to finish a guy in that. Almeida should have had some counter to that, one would think.

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