Final plays are in... UFC 126, 2/5/11
Silva (-220) over Belfort, 3 units to win 1.36
Ellenberger (-270) over Rocha, 4 units to win 1.48
Jones (-290) over Bader, 2 units to win 0.69
Franklin (-140) over Griffin, 1.5 units to win 1.07
Banuelos (+305) over Torres, 0.75 units to win 2.29
Omigawa (+285) over Mendes, 0.75 units to win 2.14
A hefty price on the favorites here, but I'm trying to be honest with myself and just take what I like for winners. I'm least happy with the play on Franklin as a favorite, but I had to take him for a little bit because I just don't believe that Griffin has what it takes on the feet and if Franklin fights smart, he should be patient, keep the distance, and win this one standing with points. If Griffin doesn't brawl, but comes out with a clinch and bully strategy I think he'll do much better. My bet here is on Franklin being the more likely one to follow a smart game plan. Griffin's layoff will have him so antsy to fight that I won't be surprised at all if he just comes out firing crazy.
Biggest play on Ellenberger... heavy juice, but as I said before I don't trust Rocha to have anything for him. He prefers to work from top game and I can't see Ellenberger letting it get there. Rocha's bottom game is not a big threat from what I've seen. Ellenberger has all the cards here. If he is winning standing, then I believe he can keep it there. And if this fight must go to the ground, I don't believe Rocha has the takedowns to end up on top where he is best and will probably end up on his back playing guard instead. As long as Ellenberger is careful with his legs and keeps a good base and spreads those limbs out away from Rocha's grasp to suck them in for leg-locks/heel-hooks etc., he should be able to avoid the sub from the top.
Finally... Banuelos. I wouldn't call this play a flyer because of Banuelos' strength and wrestling advantage. I know that Torres is dangerous off of his back, but we have seen him spend long periods on his back before without getting the sub. It will be a very tricky fight for Banuelos but I think if he employs GSP's combo strategy of takedowns and defense he may be able to avoid the sub just long enough to eek out the decision. I do expect a number of close calls along the way however, if not a Torres sub, but for +305 I liked it.
Good luck everyone! Let's all have another positive night! Should be some great fights too... I'm pretty excited.