[koscheckbaby]

I do agree. Usually those big favorites aren't worth the parlay at all. They are the ones that usually risk it too. But I kind of laugh at the notion of Manny doing anything to Jose Aldo.

[lasker]

Nobody is throwing Aldo into parlays. I think Manny is getting a little too much credit for the MTB win. Brown looked like his dog had just died. Aldo completely tooled Faber and MTB. Manny had a close fight with Leonard Garcia and was KTFO by Rob Emerson. Don't be scared. Throw Aldo into parlays. LoL

I agree, Aldo will handle his business. As will MTB.

[Shagdogy]

WEC 51 results....

Started the night out 5-0 overall. So promising! Finished 5-3. Lost my parlay because George Roop DESTROYED it. Lost both bets on Varner.

Total Earnings: 0.1 Units!!!!!!! hahaha! Another positive night...

[Vaughany]

Varner screwed us both!

[Shagdogy]

Cerrone's wrestling was greatly improved. Good for him I guess. Think maybe Varner took his wrestling advantage for granted.

[Shagdogy]

Strikeforce: Noons v. Diaz II

Only putting a little bit on here just for fun. Going right along with all the rest of you guys. Not much debate going on around here for these fights... let's see what happens.

Thompson over Cavalcante
Diaz v. Noons over 2.5 rounds
Kaufman over Coenen
Parlay - 1 unit to win 3

Still thinking I may take Thompson by decision and Noons to win. But for now, probably just gonna chill with this little parlay and see what happens.

[Shagdogy]

Added...

Noons over Sanchez, 1 unit to win 2.1

[Shagdogy]

Added Galvao, 1 unit to win 2, and Thompson, 2.8 to win 2. Lost on the Galvao bet, and STOLE the Thompson one. At least he knows there's no way he won 30-27! What a joke! Thanks to the hometown judges. I'll take the money, but I personally thought JZ won that fight. I can see giving him rounds 1 and 2, but no way he won round 3. I personally would give 1 and 3 to JZ and 2 to Thomson. But hey, I'll take it!

[Shagdogy]

UFC 120 plays are in...

Bisping by decision, 2 units to win 2.4 @ +120
Holst over Sass, 1 unit to win 1.55 @ +155
Hathaway by decision, 1 unit to win 1.65 @ +165
Brown over Kongo, 1 unit to win 1.7 @ +170
Bisping to win in the 3rd, .46 units to win 5 @ +1080

Bisping/Akiyama start round 2
Hardy over Condit
Parlay, 2 units to win 1.8

[rocky mattioli]

been watching as much video of gustafsson as i can....and i have to say,i`m impressed...he has excellent hands....decent kicks...and he`s not shabby on the ground...

granted,he doesn`t match-up well on the ground vs a wrestler of phil davis` caliber....but he has some grappling experience....

diabate`s getting long in the tooth...and aside from several subs vs mediocre(at best) talent,he looks very weak on the ground....

looking hard at gustafsson at roughly even odds...

strangely enough,5 dimes pulled the line...wtf?....

2010-10-16 UFC 120 against Diabate Cyrille
2010-04-10 UFC 112 'Invinsible' Loss (submission) against Davis Phil
2009-11-14 UFC 105 Win by KO against Hamman Jared
2009-05-30 Superior Challenge 3 'Untamed' Win (RSC) against Shemarov Vladimir
2008-11-08 The Zone FC 3 'Shockwave' Win (RSC) against Quetglas Pedro
2008-09-13 Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki Win (judges decision) against Kulak Krzysztof
2008-05-10 The Zone FC 2 'Showdown' Win (RSC) against Minonzio Matteo
2008-03-13 FiteSelektor Win (TKO) against Müller Florian
2008-02-09 The Zone Fighting Championship 1 Win (RSC) against Fadami Farbod
2007-12-15 Finn Fight Win (TKO) against Haydari Mikael
2007-11-17 Shooto Chicago Collision 4 Win (submission) against Heikola Saku
2007-09-22 FighterGalla 5 'Ready for War' Win by KO against Ryom Jesper
2007-06-09 SSL07 - Gladius Adrenaline 2 Win (RSC) against Zachrison Jan
2007-04-14 SSL07 - Gladius Adrenaline 1 Win (RSC) against Sazesh Sharyar
2007-03-18 SSL07 - Kaisho Battle Win (judges decision) against Nilsson Mats
2007-02-17 SSL07 - Shoot Challenge 1 Win (RSC) against Hansson Anders
-----------------------------------------
Submission Wrestling:

2009-02-14 Fight Night Nacka 7 Win (submission) against Lee-Klockare Christopher
2006-12-16 Neoblood 15 Win (points) against Forsman Michael

More:

1st place, Grapplers Paradise (2008), -98,9 kg
----------------------------


1st place, KP Cup Boxing tournament (2009), superheavyweight
1st place, Tensta Box Open (2009), superheavyweight, 5-0 againt David Loy from RBK Vantör
Nominated to Best Boxer at Tensta Box Open 2009


News:

2010-03-21 The Mauler awarded two prices at Swedish Martial Arts Awards 2010
2010-01-06 Alexander Gustafsson ranked no 1 in Europe
2009-11-15 Documentary with Alexander Gustafsson
2009-07-27 Alexander Gustafsson and Michal Mankiewicz fight at Hell Cage Championship 4 in Prague
2009-06-26 The Mauler and Dragan Tesanovic on Sherdog’s list of the top ten Euro prospects *updated*
2009-04-30 Alexander Gustafsson fights at Superior Challenge 'Untamed' in Stockholm Sweden
2009-04-02 Gustafsson vs. Andriuskevicus on Sherdog's tussles worth watching list
2009-03-01 Alexander Gustafsson winner at Tensta Box Open in Sweden
2009-02-23 Alexander Gustafsson has a new boxing fight coming up in Sweden
2009-02-16 Two wins and two losses at Fight Night Nacka
2009-02-14 Stockholm Shoot at Fight Night Nacka
2008-11-24 Alexander 'The Mauler' has accepted to fight at The Zone 4 in Sweden
2008-11-17 Alexander Gustafsson fights in Russia *updated*
2008-10-20 Alexander Gustafssons's opponent at The Zone FC 3 is announced
2008-09-22 Alexander 'The Mauler' Gustafsson winner at Grapplers Paradise in Sweden
2008-09-15 Alexander 'The Mauler' Gustavsson winner at KSW Extra in Poland
2008-08-20 Alexander 'The Mauler' Gustafsson has accepted to fight at The Zone FC 3 in Gothenburg Sweden
2008-04-11 Alexander Gustafsson's opponent at The Zone FC is announced
2008-03-13 Alexander Gustafsson winner at FiteSelektor in Dubai
2008-02-17 Alexander Gusfavsson at FightSelector
2008-01-03 Alexander Gustavsson has accepted to fight at The Zone Fighting Championship
2007-12-17 Alexander Gustavsson and Markus Niskanen winners at FinnFight
2007-12-07 New opponent for Alexander Gustavsson at FinnFight
2007-11-18 The results from Shooto Chicago Collision 4 in Finland are up
2007-11-07 Nicholas Musoke joins the other fighters from Shooters MMA at Shooto Chicago Collision 4 in Finland
2007-10-31 Fighters from Shooters MMA Fight Team compete at Angered Centrum Box Cup in Sweden
2007-10-29 Alexander Gustavsson fights at Shooto Chicago Collision 4 in Finland


for 23,the guy`s been around the block...being at the alliance camp has to help...

i know diabate has experience...but this kid matches up pretty well,imo...

am i way out in left field on this one?...

[Shagdogy]

The only thing that I really like about Diabate is his chin and toughness. This guy is real hard to finish. See his last fight with Luiz Cane as an example. He took a pounding at first, weathered it, and came back to take the TKO victory. Diabate will not be put away easily by anyone. Gustavsson has more growing to come compared to Diabate, so maybe he has progressed more since his last fight. He won't put Diabate away with one punch. I think he will be able to tag him and hurt him, but he will have to attack relentlessly to finish Diabate, but then he risks being careless and getting subbed. Tough fight to call, but i don't like Gustavsson as the favorite. Evens would be a fair line IMO, but I wouldn't take either unless I got a good deal on them.

I don't think you're way out in left field. Gustavsson can definitely take it, that's why he's favored. I do think it will be a tough fight for him though. Not an easy win.

[rocky mattioli]

yeah...he`s -130 at brobury...i thought he opened the dog at 5 dimes...maybe i`m wrong....

surprised at the-130......also a bit baffled that 5 dimes pulled the line....

very odd...

[Shagdogy]

Gustavsson has more growing to come compared to Diabate, so maybe he has progressed more since his last fight. He won't put Diabate away with one punch. I think he will be able to tag him and hurt him, but he will have to attack relentlessly to finish Diabate,.

Looks like Gustafsson definitely did some growing since his last fight. He dominated, dropped Ciabate a few times, and finished with that relentless attack. Looked good. If only Hardy didn't get whooped up by Condit. Ugh.

UFC 120 Results: -2 units

A Hardy win would have put me up 2 units. I also lost a 7-way parlay I took a while back on Hardy. 3 units to win 10. Damn that Hardy.

[Shagdogy]

UFC 121 so far...

Lesnar/Velasquez over 2.5 rounds @ +120, 1.5 units to win 1.8
Velasquez by decision @ +881, .5 units to win 4.4
Schaub by TKO/KO over Gonzaga @ +177, 1.5 units to win 2.6
Camozzi over Yang @ -105, 1 unit to win .95

Kampmann/Shields to decision @ -160
Ortiz/Hamill to decision @ -175
Cote over Lawlor @ -170
Parlay, 1 unit to win 3

Still considering a play on Ortiz to win, Thiago to win, and maybe hedging with Gonzaga by TKO/KO. Will probably use Schaub/Gonzaga to NOT go the distance in a few football parlays this weekend. Good luck.

[Shagdogy]

Schaub by TKO/KO is now up to +237 on 5dimes. IMO, this fight will end by TKO one way or another, and it's not better than 50/50 as to who falls down first. at +237, Schaub by TKO/KO is one of the best true value plays I've seen in a long time in MMA. I got impatient and took him at +177 by TKO but I may add more at these odds.

also added the following parlay...

Lesnar/Schaub inside distance/Kampmann-shields to start rd. 2/Ortiz-Hamill start rd. 2 - .8 units to win 4.3

Good luck all!

[Vaughany]

Schaub by TKO/KO is now up to +237 on 5dimes. IMO, this fight will end by TKO one way or another, and it's not better than 50/50 as to who falls down first. at +237, Schaub by TKO/KO is one of the best true value plays I've seen in a long time in MMA. I got impatient and took him at +177 by TKO but I may add more at these odds.

also added the following parlay...

Lesnar/Schaub inside distance/Kampmann-shields to start rd. 2/Ortiz-Hamill start rd. 2 - .8 units to win 4.3

Good luck all!

Good luck tonight bro, looks like we've got similar plays across the board again! I've just taken Schaub to get TKO/KO of the night at +700 (skybet) in the end as I feel if he does manage to get a KO it will be spectacular enough to be deserving of KO of the Night. Bit annoyed as I could of got it at +1000 if I'd of waited a bit longer for Paddypowers offer. On the positive side Ive got Velasquez/Lesnar over 2.5 rnds at +151 on pinnacle which I'm happy with as I was considering the play wen it was at +121 earlier in the week.

[Shagdogy]

Nice work getting Lesnar/Velasquez up at +151 on the prop. It hasn't changed much on 5dimes last I checked. The biggest risk to your Schaub bet IMO is if the main event ends in KO. If it does, then Dana has a tendency to give the bonus to the marquee fighters. Especially if it's a Cain KO, I think he'll get it. I hope you're right though! It's money for both of us.

One fight that hasn't gotten much attention around here that I can't seem to get away from as it comes closer is the Thiago/Sanchez fight. The more I think about this fight the more I like Thiago, especially with the very little juice at -115. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else, but I can't get away from the thoughts of this fight going similar to Diego's last fight with Hathaway. A lot of failed takedown attempts and a lot of punches to the face on the feet. Also, Diego has much less of an advantage in this fight if it does go to the ground than he would have had against Hathaway. I think Thiago's got all the ways to win this fight unless Diego can pin him for 3 rounds. The crisp striking will be the difference though IMO. Considering this strongly right now.

[Vaughany]

Nice work getting Lesnar/Velasquez up at +151 on the prop. It hasn't changed much on 5dimes last I checked. The biggest risk to your Schaub bet IMO is if the main event ends in KO. If it does, then Dana has a tendency to give the bonus to the marquee fighters. Especially if it's a Cain KO, I think he'll get it. I hope you're right though! It's money for both of us.

One fight that hasn't gotten much attention around here that I can't seem to get away from as it comes closer is the Thiago/Sanchez fight. The more I think about this fight the more I like Thiago, especially with the very little juice at -115. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else, but I can't get away from the thoughts of this fight going similar to Diego's last fight with Hathaway. A lot of failed takedown attempts and a lot of punches to the face on the feet. Also, Diego has much less of an advantage in this fight if it does go to the ground than he would have had against Hathaway. I think Thiago's got all the ways to win this fight unless Diego can pin him for 3 rounds. The crisp striking will be the difference though IMO. Considering this strongly right now.

I agree, I think Thiago should take this but cant rule out a Sanchez decision. A lot is being made of him training back at Jackson's but Thiago has also revamped his training camp a bit, trained at Alliance with Vera, Davis and co. which can only help improve him. Also, the fact that Sanchez has already said he's going back to lightweight after this fight makes me think he might not be totally prepared for this fight. Also mentioned in an interview that he had some injuries at the beginning of his camp but that the second part of his camp was excellent. If I had to pick I'd defo go for Thiago, but I'm more comfortable sticking with the fight going the distance at evens.

Ur right, Cain or Brock will defo get KO of the Night if one does finish the other. However, I cant envisage a one punch KO from either guy tho because they are so tough and resilient. If there is a finish I think it will be Brock through GnP after eventually getting Cain down which shouldnt be worthy of a "KO of the NIght" in comparison to somebody like Schaub whom if he was to KO/TKO Gonzaga it would more than likely be through a standing strike rather than accumulative GnP.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah, I agree. I don't think you have to worry about a Brock TKO getting the honors, but MAYBE Cain. Not too worried though.

I wish I could get Sanchez/Thiago to decision at evens. That's a great value. The line is currently at -175 and I don't feel like laying that much. Just gonna stick with what I've got for now. Maybe Sanchez's name will bring in some late money, but that's probably just wishful thinking.

[Eccocide]

GK toight Shaggy. We have some overlapping picks. Lets hope for a good night!

[Shagdogy]

UFC 121 Results

Well... it's official. I got STOMPED tonight. Took a beating in NCAA FB today too. Not a great day for me at all. As soon as I saw Gonzaga get saved by the bell at the end of Rd. 1 I had a feeling this wasn't my night.

Total - -3.5 units

At least I enjoyed the main event. It's fresh in my mind and I've only watched it live, but my initial reaction was that while Velasquez won, he didn't actually look as good as I expected him too. For example, in the stand-up exchanges, he stood right in front of Lesnar and was not circling and avoiding the strikes well. Lesnar's big ham-fists connected a few times and there was no need for Cain to stand in front of him. His wrestling, cardio, and composure were all great, but I come away from this fight thinking that Cain has better performances left in him, and that Brock did NOT look good at all.

I also noticed that Brock was flushed and bright red just a minute in to the fight. And the way that he came out so hard right off the bat wit the takedown attempt and flying knees, it was like he knew he needed to win right away or it wasn't going to go well (which it didn't). I wonder why he seemed to have so little confidence in his cardio. It was like Lesnar had a Carwin-style "adrenaline dump."

And finally... Brock has one HUGE problem that he needs to address in order to get back to the top. He HATES getting hit in the face, and you can see it as clear as day. He wilts under the pressure of flying fists, even if he's not rocked. He HAS to be able to fight through flurries like that and still find a way to dictate the fight and make it happen on his terms. I don't know how you teach it, but Brock badly needs to get better about taking punches.

[Shagdogy]

Hey everyone... I took a bit of a layoff from posting and everything here because I've been getting carried away in football for a while now. With the NFL season winding down and the new year coming, I've decided to start posting my plays again. I want to have a running record out there from day one for all of 2011, so it starts tonight.

I want to be clear that by posting my picks here I'm not trying to take anything away from the established vets here (ecco, vaughany, lasker etc.) I readily admit that these guys' posted plays have out-earned mine, and I'm not claiming to know any more than anyone else. Just want to keep this running record, so here goes...

UFC 125, 1/1/11
Kim (-125) over Diaz, 4 units to win 3.2
Maynard (-140) over Edgar, 3 units to win 2.14
Tavares (-220) over Baroni, 3 units to win 1.36
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145), 2 units to win 2.9
Leben/Stann over 2.5 rounds (+110), 2 units to win 2.2

Vera/Silva does NOT go the distance (-140), 2 units to win 1.43
STRADDLE
Vera wins by decision (+375), 1.3 units to win 5

That's it for my posted plays... Good luck everyone! Looking forward to this card. I have a few more longshot parlays, and a couple of flyers on FOTN props (Gomi/Guida and Leben/Stann). As I've said on Ecco's thread, Kim is my big hope here more than any. I'm still considering a Kim by decision play to add to this depending on how confident I feel going in to that fight. Enjoy the fights!

[Vaughany]

Good 2 see u back bro, thought it had been a while since I'd seen u post! Great picks as well, pretty much in same boat. GL tonight

[lasker]

Good luck, I like most of your plays! Just curious if these are bets you placed a few days ago? Those prop odds are no longer available as far as I know, at least not on 5dimes.

[Shagdogy]

Just curious if these are bets you placed a few days ago? Those prop odds are no longer available as far as I know, at least not on 5dimes.

I got the Gomi/Guida prop the morning after it opened. Missed it at +165. Didn't you get that line? I got the Leben/Stann over 2.5 on BetUS this morning. The Vera/Silva props I took earlier this week, at least 2-3 days ago.

[Shagdogy]

Well... there it is boys, a BRUTAL start to 2011. Watching the fights I just felt like I couldn't have been more wrong about everything. Bad night. Back to the drawing board...

UFC 125 Results: -3.74 units

MMA YTD: -3.74 units

I must say I was VERY surprised by Silva's performance. His game-plan obviously worked, but I never expected it out of him. I was literally screaming at the TV when he's showboating and spanking Vera at the end and showing no urgency to finish. I thought a guy like that was prideful about his finishing ability, but apparently not. Not happy about that one.

The night wasn't a complete bust after all. I won a few undercard fights that I didn't post here for moderate gains... -2.75 units overall. A little better than here, but not the start to 2011 I was hoping for.

*** Edit *** The night wasn't as bad a bust as I thought. BetUS cancelled the Maynard bet. I thought I'd lose on the draw. Puts 2 units back in my pocket. Just about broke even on all picks. Final posted results above are now correct.

[

[Shagdogy]

Fight Night 23, 1/22/11
Hominick (-230) over Roop, 4 units to win 1.74
Mitrione (-235) over Hague, 3 units to win 1.28
Barry (-195) over Beltran, 2 units to win 1.02
Guillard (+200) over Dunham, 1.33 units to win 2.66
Wiman (+142) over Miller, 0.66 units to win 0.87

Parlay: Brenneman/Guymon/Miller, 1 unit to win 4.01

Good luck everyone! Like a lot of you guys I didn't see a ton of value in the straight plays (which I promised myself I'd focus on for a while). Unfortunately my self control was lacking and I'm paying the juice tonight. Hopefully it works out. Enjoy the fights!

[Vaughany]

GL tonight dude, at least u've shown more self control then I have, the offer of prop-bets on all undercard fights for the first time ever was too much for me to resist! Im pretty sure the next few events will be less sporadic!

[Shagdogy]

Yeah... i banned myself from props for a little while. After about a full years worth of record keeping I found that I might be best suited to just focus on straight up plays, so I'm gonna roll with that for a while. I'm not thrilled that I have 3 heavy favorites, but I like each one of them on their own... we'll see.

[Shagdogy]

That was more like it! A nice little evening... all the favorites panned out like I was hoping. Mitrione was impressive. That guy has knockout power and deceptive quickness and cardio for a big guy. The results...

Fight Night 23 Results: +6.57 units

MMA YTD: +2.83 units

[Vaughany]

Nice one 5 out of 5

[Eccocide]

Good work Shag.

[lasker]

Great picks!

[Shagdogy]

Nice one 5 out of 5

Good work Shag.

Great picks!

Thanks guys... I think i'm finding my stride in the straight play category. It's weird to be paying the juice on favorites from time to time, but picking winners is the only place where I'm especially consistent (61% since march last year), so I'm learning to be okay with it. Right now this is clearly my strength. I'd still like to improve in prop plays, parlays etc., but for now at least I have one strong suit.

[Shagdogy]

UFC 126

Silva (-220) over Belfort, 3 units to win 1.36

Like I said, I'm sticking with just picking winners for a while. I like Silva a lot in this spot. Coming off of a relatively embarrassing performance I think he will be out to prove something, especially with all the talk of how Belfort can actually beat him at his own game... striking. Belfort's tendency to chase with his punches sets him up poorly for Silva from a style stand-point. I see Silva gradually becoming more and more comfortable with the range and timing and ultimately beating Belfort up with counter strikes and eventually putting him away. I'm looking for a pretty dominant performance out of Silva here.

The rest of this card is proving difficult for me to play on now that I'm trying to keep myself to picking winners for a while. I love Ellenberger and think that Rocha just has absolutely nothing for him. His takedowns are not good enough to get Ellenberger on his back, and his guard from bottom is not at all dangerous from what I've seen of him. This fight screams Ellenberger domination to me, but -350 is a hefty price for me to want to play. I also like Bones to beat Bader, but not for the price. I'm rolling with Silva for now and may add more as time goes on.