[ddream1]

UFC 115 PREVIEW: Liddell Vs. Franklin
Main Card:

Liddell vs. Franklin (-115) 0.50*unit

A couple of UFC veterans and former champions square off to headline Saturday’s UFC 115 main card. In what should be a very exciting battle of stand up exchanges I look to Rich Franklin’s movement to be the deciding factor in route to a tough 3 round decision.
If there was anyone on the UFC roster that needs a win badly its newly inducted UFC Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell, loser of 4 of 5 Chuck is desperately trying to prove to all and most importantly UFC president Dana White that he is still relevant and competitive at 40 years old. With what is clearly a less mobile Liddell at this age we are also seeing decreased hand speed and power. Liddell for years was able to defend takedowns, keep his distance and attack with bad intentions. These days the one dimensional Liddell is getting tuned up as fighters are able to close the distance and strike first and hard.

Franklin is a very tactical striker who I believe is a natural fit at light heavy weight. I really see no advantage in this fight for Liddell in size or skills. Every where this fit can go Franklin is savvy enough to make the adjustments. Franklin’s key is moving in and out hitting with jab like precision and utilizing inner leg kicks. Soon or later Franklin will take the fight over with ring control and pace. Franklin will not need to hit with power but will need to commit to making this a three round affair. With a patient approach blended with a diverse striking game I can see Liddell opening up pushing forward and being a step behind.

Bottom line is we all know Liddell’s right hand is still very dangerous and with Franklin sporting a southpaw stance he will have plenty of chances to finish this fight. Franklin is good enough to stay at bay and work a game plan with plenty of striking to keep Liddell flat footed and loaded up for his one big bomb that will just not come.

TAKE Rich Franklin -115 0.50*unit

Cro Cop vs. Barry (-170) 0.25*units

At onetime the most feared striker in MMA Cro Cop was beyond legend until the UFC knocked on his door and tamed the animal exposing his game, heart and age with what has to be the a very disappointing signing. Saturday evening the Croatian will get a chance to redeem his legend and most importantly his “pride” against a very young, fast and explosive kick boxer. Pat Barry is a bull of fire with overwhelming power. His strikes have thunderous impact that just break down fighters. Back in the day one could say Cro Cop did as well. The key in this fight will be if Cro Cop is ready to strike hard and fast with forward movement to cut Barry’s power. If he can do this with confidence Barry might find himself surprisingly on the ground where I suspect Mirko will take this fight. Once on the ground Barry will be exposed once again and in to deep. However I don’t believe Mirko is willing to commit fully and I do believe Barry’s power and speed will back him up creating an old school kick boxing match where we will see the young talent prevail over the experience.

Bottom line is Barry has a very loose striking game that attacks at a level that Cro Cop just isn’t on anymore. This will be hard fought early but sooner or later Cro Cop drops.

TAKE Pat Berry -170 0.25*units


Ddream11
Condit vs. MacDonald (-140) 0.25*units

Great fight with a couple young fighters who match up well for what should be a fight to the very end. MacDonald is a very good young fighter with a skill set that Condit just cannot deal with. Condit is coming off a serious staph infection and will be thrown in with a fighter who can strike just as well but can close the distance in a hurry and mount Condit and his poor takedown defence at will. On the ground MacDonald’s suffocating top game is strong and fierce. Condit’s pass fights have indicated no ability to control his opponents from his back and have also showed a lack of offence to make his opponents fearful.

Bottom line is Condit will want no part of the ground and will want to use his reach and aggression to keep it standing punishing every move and shoot MacDonald makes. Unless Condit coming off injury was able to be an effective takedown defender I really see MacDonald just bullying is way in and taking over.

TAKE Rory MacDonlad -140 0.25*
**prop opinion> “goes the distance”

Thiago vs. Kampmann +190 0.25*

Thiago has been very surprising in the UFC with his striking power. A BJJ expert on paper most would think we would see a more pronounced ground game. However Thiago seems to be very comfortable staying in the pocket and hitting homeruns. I have been impressed but I have also seen many holes with his very open and sometimes sloppy striking. I feel there is great value to be on Kampmann as his stock has dropped recently with the Daley lost but I’m not willing to compare Daley’s striking to Thiago’s.

Kampmann’s very tight and fast striking that explodes up the middle might just be able to take away all of his opponents stand up and take this fight to a TKO. There his great value in this play and I see no reason to think this fight isn’t a pick’em.

TAKE Martin Kampmann +190 0.25*

Yves vs. Rothwell (-155) 1.50*units

Let’s get straight to the bottom line here.
Bottom line is Yves is tough, rough and hard hitting. Rothwell is rough, tough and hard hitting. Yves skill set and cardio is on the decline and Rothwell is always improving and prepared. I see this going in the direction that Rothwell and new found trainer Hume clogging up Yves with the clinch and grinding him down to an eventual take down and ground TKO win. Yves simply is one dimensional and only has one chance at winning. If Rothwell is able to weather the early assault he should be free and clear to a win.

TAKE Ben Rothwell -155 1.50*

Goodluck all!!

[illmatick]

good luck dream, really solid write-ups

I disagree with a few of them but I have a feeling a lot of these fights are going to be a lot closer than the both of us expected

[Straight Cash]

Yvel/Rothwell has me really thrown for a loop...

[ddream1]

thx guys!! yves will set fireworks i hope roth can stick around until they fizzle
illmat always respect your work sir, i really like this card i think the match ups are solid.

[dooman14]

i'm betting on franklin i hope he wins gl to all those beting

[ddream1]

liddel looked bettter than franklin but still looked really slow, and his chin is glass now. please please retire liddell, please.

only regret was not wagering more on kamp, lets face it he was a top contender before that daley fight. he has big skills and he is a natural middle weight, we got great odds, anyways this should've been a half unit bet at best. my stats had this a pick'em, and with those odds i bet way to low

[Chairib]

liddel looked bettter than franklin but still looked really slow, and his chin is glass now. please please retire liddell, please.

only regret was not wagering more on kamp, lets face it he was a top contender before that daley fight. he has big skills and he is a natural middle weight, we got great odds, anyways this should've been a half unit bet at best. my stats had this a pick'em, and with those odds i bet way to low

I'm curious but what kind of stats did you use to determine that the Kampmann fight as a pick'em?

I know it's a little late but kudos on a nice write up.

[ddream1]

i use something very similar to fightmetric.com for stats(prior) and i point rate each fight to determine a self power rating that helps me set a line i feel is true, after running my power rating, and last recent fight history plus past fight history against similar opponent i apply it to each other using x's and o's. if i have 3 or more of either i then compare my line with books to see if there is value. then i just use some general knowledge, instincts, gut to get a feel as the above is just a foundation.
if the lines are different by as many as the kamp fight it should've garned more but my "gut" told me to just becare of those hay makers thiago throws so i backed off.

[Chairib]

Thanks dream