Nice to see someone here do a little research before he posts.
Everyone knew the ref stopped that fight with Kos way too early, it's why they had a rematch set up for UFC 109. But Kos got hurt during training so they had Swick step in for him as a replacement.
That being said, Paulo's stand up striking however raw it still maybe is very powerful. It's really the one area where he's got a clear advantage on Martin. Both Daley and Marquardt showed how to beat Martin, over whelm him with strikes at the beginning and don't give him any room to recover. I think Thiago's best shot to win this fight is going to be with strikes in the first round.
If Martin wins this fight, it's going to be by getting the fight into the later rounds. Thiago's cardio is still very very questionable. You watch his fights and it's really evident how different of guy he is in the second and third rounds. And if you can get Thiago up against the cage during the later rounds, getting the takedown is a lot easier. Thiago's grappling is good but it's more geared towards sports BJJ not MMA. His top game is strong but it more about getting position than anything else. He's a very strong guy but if he gets into bad position on the ground, he'll just try to muscle his way out instead of trying to use proper technique.