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UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak (November 19, 2022)
ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac
Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Chase Sherman
Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov
Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jennifer Maia vs. Maryna Moroz
Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
Kevin Natividad vs. Ricky Turcios
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Maria Oliveira
Fernie Garcia vs. Brady Hiestand
Tereza Bleda vs. Natalia Silva
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What the hell is going on at BetOnline? I want to bet on Lewis but these lines don’t make sense:
Lewis ML +185
Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ +180
Lewis inside the distance + 175
Prelim write ups!
135 lbs.: Ricky Turcios vs. Kevin Natividad
Relentless aggression carried Ricky Turcios (11-3) all the way through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 house, resulting in a Finale victory over teammate, Brady Hiestand. He entered his UFC debut as a significant favorite over Aiemann Zahabi, only to turn in one of the most bizarrely uninspiring performances en route to a decision loss.
He boasts a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage.
Kevin Natividad (9-2) rode a five-fight win streak into his UFC debut, which saw him suffer a glove-grab-assisted knockout loss to Miles Johns. His next fight was even quicker, as Danaa Batgerel put him away just 50 seconds into the first round.
He fights for the first time in nearly 19 months.
Zahabi showed off a fairly simple blueprint for beating Turcios: stay mobile, pick away at him, and exploit the fact that he doesn’t have a jab or any other means to reliably close the distance. Unfortunately for Natividad, I’m not sure he’s built to execute that plan. He’s made his living as an aggressive power-puncher, which plays right into Turcios’ chaos-loving hands.
For all his faults, Turcios’ durability and cardio make him well-equipped to come out on top in the sort of slugfests Natividad prefers. Plus, while Natividad is a capable grappler, Turcios is remarkably difficult to hold down. Turcios outlasts Natividad to an entertaining decision win.
Prediction: Turcios via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Lewis Battles Spivac In Vegas!
115 lbs.: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Maria Oliveira
Unfazed by a UFC debut loss to J.J. Aldrich — her third defeat in four fights — Vanessa Demopoulos (8-4) survived an early knockdown to submit Silvana Gomez Juarez midway through the first round. Next came Jinh Yu Frey, whom Demopoulos narrowly out-worked to claim a split decision victory.
She stands four inches shorter than Maria Oliveira (13-5) and gives up seven inches of reach.
Three years after falling to Marina Rodriguez on Contender Series, Oliveira started her UFC career with a defeat at the hands of Tabatha Ricci. Her sophomore effort pitted her against Gloria De Paula, whom “Spider Girl” battled to a controversial split decision win.
She’s knocked out seven opponents as a professional.
Skilled as she is on the mat, Demopoulos isn’t hugely difficult to work around. She’s a very poor wrestler and extremely straightforward with her striking, which consists largely of her remarkably sharp right hand. Luckily for her, she’ll have no shortage of opportunities to generate scrambles against Oliveira, a limited slugger who just loves rushing in straight lines. With Oliveira’s fondness for flying knees and tendency to march forward with no regard for protecting her hips, it seems inevitable that Demopooulos will eventually get it to the mat.
Oliveira could just bludgeon her into oblivion, of course, especially if Demopoulos is as reticent to wrestle as she was in past efforts. That nice double-leg Demopoulos landed against Frey gives me some hope, though, and durability has never been an issue for her. She’ll catch Oliveira at some point.
Prediction: Demopoulos via second round submission
Related
‘It’s Been Nice Being A Retired Stripper’
135 lbs.: Fernie Garcia vs. Brady Hiestand
Fernie Garcia (10-2) quite literally punched his UFC ticket with a brutal knockout of Joshua Weems on Contender Series that extended his win streak to five. He wasn’t quite so effective against Journey Newson, who handed Garcia his first loss in three years via unanimous decision.
He’ll enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.
Brady Hiestand (5-2) worked his way into TUF 29 finals by toppling veterans Josh Rettinghouse and Vince Murdock. He squared off with teammate Ricky Turcios in both men’s Octagon debuts, ultimately emerging on the wrong end of a split decision defeat.
This marks his first appearance in almost 14 months.
Garcia’s struggles with Newson don’t paint a pretty picture of his chances here. He seemed progressively more befuddled by Newson’s rudimentary striking offense and had few answers for his wrestling. Hiestand is a quality takedown artist in his own right, and even if you give Garcia’s combination punching the edge on the feet, wrestling is a hell of an equalizer.
The biggest concern here is Hiestand’s cardio, which has betrayed him in the past, but I’m optimistic that he learned something from the Turcios fight. It’s not a massive deal if he didn’t, either, since Garcia lacks the power for a late rally. Hiestand overwhelms him on the mat for his first Octagon victory.
Prediction: Hiestand via unanimous decision
Related
‘Black Beast’ Battles ‘Polar Bear’ On Nov. 19
125 lbs.: Natalia Silva vs. Tereza Bleda
Natalia Silva (13-5-1) signed with UFC as the Jungle Fight champion, only to spend the next 2.5 years on the sidelines. She made up for lost time in her June 2022 debut, a clinical dissection of Contender Series grad Jasmine Jasudavicius in Austin.
Her 10 professional stoppage wins include seven by submission.
The 20-year-old Tereza Bleda (6-0) was perfect (6-0) as an amateur before cutting a swath through the Oktagon promotion in her native Czech Republic. Her efforts earned her a Contender Series berth, which she made the most of by dominating Nayara Maia to secure a UFC contract.
She’ll have five inches of height and six inches of reach on Silva.
Bleda is an enormously promising young woman who’s improving at a startling rate, but she’s getting thrown right into the fire here. Silva seems custom-built to exploit the flat-footedness, shaky defense, and vulnerability to kicks that make up Bleda’s key weaknesses. As suffocating as Bleda’s grappling can be, she needs to overcome Silva’s superior footwork and rapid-fire strikes to use it, and I’m not convinced she’s developed enough to pull it off.
To be clear, Bleda’s high-speed evolution could easily have patched enough holes in her game to give her the win here. After seeing Silva take apart a similar sort of fighter in Jasudavicius, however, it seems much likelier that Silva takes her apart with kicks and rapid-fire punching flurries for either a wide decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Silva via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Successful knockouts of Joao Camilo and Carlos Mota saw Charles Johnson (11-3) retain his LFA title and earn a UFC debut against blue-chip prospect, Muhammad Mokaev. Though he proved more adept that most at staying on his feet, Mokaev’s relentless takedown attack nonetheless snapped “InnerG’s” four-fight win streak.
He’s knocked out and submitted four professional foes apiece.
After beating Tyson Nam for the Fight Nights Global Flyweight title, Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-7) defended it with narrow victories over Tagir Ulanbekov and Ali Bagautinov. He now finds himself 1-4 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, including a bogus split decision loss to Jeff Molina last time out.
He stands five inches shorter than Johnson and gives up four inches of reach.
You really do have to feel for Zhumagulov. He should be 3-2 in his last five, those two defeats coming to top contenders in Amir Albazi and Manel Kape, but wonky judging has left him on the chopping block. He’s not getting any favors here, either, as Johnson’s length, wrestling skill and incredible cardio make him a serious threat.
Zhumagulov’s saving grace is that while Johnson is hard to take and keep down, he’s not too difficult to grind against the fence. “InnerG” also thrives more in five-rounders than three-rounders, so it wouldn’t be too wild to see Zhumagulov grind him out. Still, Johnson’s physical advantages should be enough to carry him to a competitive victory.
Prediction: Johnson via unanimous decision
Related
‘Black Beast’ Battles ‘Polar Bear’ On Nov. 19
125 lbs.: Jennifer Maia vs. Maryna Moroz
An upset submission of Joanne Wood allowed Jennifer Maia (19-9-1) to jump the queue and challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the Flyweight title, resulting in a unanimous decision defeat. She bounced back with a decision of Jessica Eye, but sits at 0-2 in 2022 courtesy of Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot.
She gives up three inches of height and reach to Maryna Moroz (11-3).
After bumping her UFC record to 5-3 with upset decisions over Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva, Moroz withdrew from four consecutive fights. The nearly two-year layoff ended in March 2022 when she choked out Mariya Agapova with a bonus-winning arm triangle.
That victory marked her sixth by submission and seventh inside the distance overall.
At the risk of sounding reductive, this is the third time in a row that Maia has had to face a taller, rangier volume striker and she didn’t do all that great the first two times. Moroz showcased her ability to deal with a persistent aggressor when she beat Silva, and though Maia’s wrestling presents a danger that “Sheetara” lacked, that’s not enough to offset Moroz’s physical and stylistic advantages.
Moroz’s willingness to mix it up inside could work in Maia’s favor, but odds are that Moroz out-moves and out-works her to a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Moroz via unanimous decision
Related
‘He’s A Gatekeeper’
135 lbs.: Vince Morales vs. Miles Johns
Vince Morales (11-6) finally put together his first multi-fight win streak in the Octagon by dispatching Drako Rodriguez and Louis Smolka in quick succession. “Vandetta” then took on Jonathan Martinez, who out-landed and out-wrestled Morales to hand him his fourth Octagon defeat.
Six of his 10 professional victories have come by knockout.
Miles Johns (12-2) rebounded from his first-ever loss to Mario Bautista by scoring two consecutive bonus-winning one-punch knockouts. The fun wasn’t to last, as he got clubbed-and-subbed by John Castaneda his next time out.
He steps in for Jose Johnson on less than two weeks’ notice.
You can never be certain which Johns will enter the cage. At his best, he blends his wrestling and power-punching into a delightfully fluid and effective offense. At his worst, he seemingly forgets how to shoot a takedown and ends up torn apart by more technically savvy strikers. He’ll need to be on the ball here, as Morales packs some murderous power in his right hand.
Even with that caveat, I’m leaning towards Johns. Morales’ boxing-heavy approach should give Johns plenty of opportunities to get to his preferred distance and get his wrestling going. There’s a real chance that Morales plunks him as they trade, but with only one knockout finish in nearly five years, I’m not sure I trust him to land that missile on the target. Johns grinds him out over the full 15.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
Main card -
Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree Jr. For Nzechukwu? Karl Roberson
Current Streak: Cutelaba lost his last two, whereas Nzechukwu rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Cutelaba is chaos
How these two match up: This is a certified BANGFEST!
Cutelaba has no idea how to pace himself or fight strategically. A talented wrestler with power in his hands, Cutelaba is balls-to-the-walls at all times, destined to come back with his shield or on it each and every time. There have been moments throughout his career where he’ll show a bit of craft or more measured aggression, but it fails to last long.
It’s beyond time to accept that the “Hulk” we see is the “Hulk” we get.
Nigeria’s Nzechukwu is quite the physical talent. His technical skills leave something to be desired all around, but hitting hard and being durable is more than enough to find good success in a weak division.
Flaw fighters make for interesting match ups. On one hand, Cutelaba is the far, far more experienced wrestler. He should be able to take down Nzechukwu without much difficulty, and he’s immediately overwhelmed opponents of Nzechukwu’s experience level without issue in the past. Given a bit of control time, Cutelaba can absolutely mangle opponents from top position.
Fortunately for Nzechukwu, this is Cutelaba we’re talking about. There’s also every chance he brawls wild or gasses out quickly from having to wrestle for too long. In such a situation, Nzechukwu is the far more consistent fighter down the stretch, likely to turn up the heat on a tired foe.
I have backed Cutelaba too many times in this column and been burned for it. The 28-year-old has so much experience and potential, but that matters little if he never actually makes any changes inside the Octagon.
Expect his defense to fail him once again.
Prediction: Nzechukwu via knockout
Related
Up Next! Lewis Battles Spivac In Vegas!
Heavyweight: Chase Sherman vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Best Win for Sherman? Damian Grabowski For Cortes-Acosta? Jared Vanderaa
Current Streak: Sherman won his last bout, whereas Cortes-Acosta is looking his second UFC win at 7-0
X-Factor: This is a short-notice booking after Sherman’s scheduled bout vs. Josh Parisian dissolved
How these two match up: Bare Knuckle boxer vs. professional boxer collide in mixed martial arts (MMA) gloves!
Sherman is about as tough as they come. He doesn’t necessarily have the technical kickboxing chops to climb the ladder, but he can always be counted upon to brawl with the middle of the division. Conversely, Cortes-Acosta is a new face among the big men inside the Octagon. The Contenders Series product boasts an undefeated record filled with knockouts, but he’s yet to really be tested.
Similar to the fight above, this one comes down to conditioning versus defense. Sherman is well-accustomed to fighting hard for three rounds, and he manages a more high-volume pace than most Heavyweight hitters. However, he’s also criminally easy to punch in the face, and Cortes-Acosta has the fluidity to make him pay for his attempts to push the pace.
Could the short-notice make the difference? It very well might, but that requires Sherman to make it to the second round without getting stopped or badly wounded in the process.
I’ll err on the side of early violence.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via knockout
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Predictions! UFC Vegas 65 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2
Welterweight: Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov
Best Win for Fialho? Miguel Baeza For Salikhov? Francisco Trinaldo
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Can Fialho rebound from getting styled on by Jake Matthews?
How these two match up: Strikers collide!
Fialho started his UFC career strong, giving Michel Pereira all he could handle on short-notice before picking up consecutive knockout wins. Then, Matthews unexpectedly picked him apart, perhaps punishing the Brazilian’s attempts to fight so frequently. He’s taken a few months off since, but this match up will still be his fifth in 2022.
Salikhov is a very fun kickboxer who’s generally difficult to take down. At 38 years of age, “The King of Kung Fu” probably doesn’t have a title run left him in, but the spinning strike expert is very clearly still one of Welterweight’s better strikers.
I don’t think either man really has to worry about the takedown in this one. Really, it’s all about whether Salikhov can manage distance and work his long range strikes, or if Fialho is able to find the pocket and extend exchanges. Fialho hasn’t quite proven himself an expert in cutting the cage, but he did manage to track down Pereira well enough, which is a good sign.
Still, I cannot help but feel like getting sparked by Jake Matthews is a bad sign opposite a veteran kickboxer. Salikhov is crafty and powerful, and between the two men, he still seems more durable even as he approaches his forties.
Prediction: Salikhokv via knockout
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Welterweight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
Best Win for Maddalena? Ramazan Emeev For Roberts? Ramazan Emeev!
Current Streak: Maddalena is 2-0 inside the Octagon, whereas Roberts lost his last bout
X-Factor: Roberts has much more UFC experience
How these two match up: A very talented prospect takes on an established action fighter.
Maddalena has huge potential. The Contenders Series product has quickly proven himself a cut above the rest thanks to his diligent boxing and sharp body work. Thus far, his takedown defense and grappling have looked quite up to par as well. England’s Roberts has been on the UFC roster since 2015. He hasn’t necessarily been the most active or consistent in that time, but “Hot Chocolate” has proven himself a very real threat both with his knockout power and ability to throw up sudden submissions from bottom position.
This match up really favors Maddalena. He’s the slicker and more consistent striker, and Roberts doesn’t appear to be strong enough wrestler to drag him down. Unless Roberts does something really dramatic, the minute-to-minute exchanges really seem to favor Maddalena, who also hits more than hard enough to shake up “Hot Chocolate.”
Barring a huge connection from Roberts, Maddalena moves to 3-0 in UFC.
Prediction: Maddalena via knockout
Lewis gets knocked out again. Could be his last fight in the UFC.
Hard to trust the black beast these days. I'm leaning Spivac as well.
Went to Mountaineer last night. They didn't have any odds on the Vieira/Brundage fight. I think Vieira is juicy @ (-180). Was going heavy on it 900 to win 500. Other then pulling another rabbit out of a hat, Cody gets worked. I did get in on a 3 leg parlay with (Turcious,Cutelaba,Zumagulov). Some good match-ups. GL
My other 2 sources (Barstool & Rivers) to get a bet in do not have lines on the fight. I have been eyeing it since I seen it scheduled. Not that late of an add on fight to not have odds on it. I won't drive to the state line if it comes out tomorrow anyhow. Might end up saving me a K!
Vieira pulled out 5 days ago. Never heard anything. Undisclosed reasons is his excuse.
Two many chick fights on this card which I hate and I also see most of these early fights going to decision. Could get boring in the prelims especially..
I think I'm all in on Spivac ITD in the main though. Beasty is gonna get dumped on his back in this fight and pounded out at some point I believe. The Polar Bear is a strong dude!
You're gonna lay 2-to-1 on someone who doesn't move his feet and stands in front of his opponents? I agree Spivak probably wins but it's not something I'd be going crazy on. Lewis also seems to get up well from takedowns and is undefeated in the APEX. Spivak round 2 maybe? Don't forget the APEX has a smaller cage as well.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Last edited by JC2008; 11-19-22 at 11:46 AM.
Spivak is gonna grab Black Beast and smash him to the ground. Spivak isn't gonna stand and trade with beasty. Should be an easy win and finish for Spivak. Black beast is on the decline now also, getting old. Lost the eye of the tiger..
I agree with that part. What else are you doing on this card Jibbby?
Just mainly playing the dogs on this card. Nothing really stands out for me other then Spavik in the main.
That's all I got in this event. Betting small for the most part.
Yeah it's not the most exciting card after the PPV last weekend.
Rumours going around Twitter that Lewis was taken to the hospital but still wants to fight? I don't know if this is factual or not. Just passing on the message.
- Guess it was true.
Shit.
What a joke. Covid and Lewis out. Covid saved Black Beast.. lol..
Curious though, how does this happen just a few hours before the fight? Don't you test earlier? Something fishy here. I think Black Beast wanted out and claimed Covid and illness or some shit.
Like I said Black Beast seems way to loving and nice these days. I think he's lost the eye of the tiger. This is MMA and you need to come in mildly pissed off, angry and wanting to win in this sport. I don't see that with Beasty anymore.
Well this event just got even more shitty.
Glad it wasn't PPV.. I'm actually up in this event even betting small. Hope it continues. Hitting Decision prop wins at plus odds. It's adding up!
They said it was non-Covid related, Jibbby.
What ever. That makes it even more suspect then. I heard it wrong.
So did Derrick Lewis get an upset stomach and butterfly's then right before fight time?
I feel bad for Spivak as this happened right before fight time. That sucks for him!
I don't think Derrick Lewis cut weight either. These guys are talking out of their asses on the panel claiming as that could be the culprit.
What ever. That makes it even more suspect then. I heard it wrong.
So did Derrick Lewis get an upset stomach and butterfly's then right before fight time?
I feel bad for Spivak as this happened right before fight time. That sucks for him!
I'm not sure. Good thing there's a shitload of other sports on.
......
Rumble Johnson died at 38 years of age. WOW!! Wonder what killed him?
That's crazy..
Zhumagulov got fooked again!! Killed my 3 leg parlay. The one judge in the Turcious fight had it for the other guy? WTF man.
Good. You're terrible at betting and postingZhumagulov got fooked again!! Killed my 3 leg parlay. The one judge in the Turcious fight had it for the other guy? WTF man.
Ya musta missed the thread. I stuck up for ya.
Terrible? I have been hitting some nice bets lately. But, if you say so.
Googled it.. He had disease!
Anthony "Rumble" Johnson, who went 13-6 in the UFC from 2007 through 2017 and compiled a 23-6 overall MMA record, died Sunday at age 38. The cause of death was organ failure due to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, which is a rare disorder of the immune system.
I don't know about that decision? I had Gulov by decision myself and lost. I guess he never wins these spit decisions in the UFC. I'll remember that.Zhumagulov got fooked again!! Killed my 3 leg parlay. The one judge in the Turcious fight had it for the other guy? WTF man.
I did miss the thread and that was new news to me right now. I wasn't paying attention I guess.Ya musta missed the thread. I stuck up for ya.
Your not my wife are ya? If not-go over there in the corner and fook your self pal!
Damn Roberts got steam rolled in that fight. Clinic, man against boy in that one. That white boy is bad ass.. JDM no joke!
We all knew that from his Contender Series fight and when he murdered Pete Rodriguez and beat Emeev hahahaa.Damn Roberts got steam rolled in that fight. Clinic, man against boy in that one. That white boy is bad ass.. JDM no joke!
hankcream gave THE_LOCKSMITH 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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