1. #1
    JIBBBY
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    UFC FIGHT NIGHT Dern vs Yan (Sat Oct 1)


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    JIBBBY
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    Prelim write ups -








    155 lbs.: Joaquim Silva vs. Jesse Ronson

    Joaquim Silva (11-3) followed his quarterfinal run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil 4 with wins in his first three Octagon appearances. He’s 1-3 since, though he did walk away with “Fight of the Night” for his knockout of Jared Gordon.
    He fights for the first time in 15.5 months.
    Six years after three consecutive split decision losses bounced him from the Octagon, Jesse Ronson (21-11) returned to UFC with a club-and-sub upset of Nicolas Dalby. A failed drug test saw the result overturned and Ronson placed on the sidelines for nearly two years, after which he suffered a submission loss to Rafa Garcia.
    He’s scored nine knockouts and eight submissions as a professional.
    Takedown defense was the bugbear that cost Ronson during his first UFC stint, and the Garcia fight showed that the issue is here to stay. Luckily for him, Silva’s nickname is a bit of a red herring. That’s because he’s almost a pure brawler, attempting just two takedowns in seven UFC appearances. That’s good news for the bigger, more durable Ronson, who hasn’t been stopped with strikes in over a decade.
    Silva has a shot if those last two knockout losses convinced him to focus on improving his ground game, but just based on what he’s done so far in the Octagon, odds are he’s going to slug it out. If that happens, Ronson’s going to blast him out within the first half of the fight.
    Prediction: Ronson via first round technical knockout
    Related
    Up Next! Dern Vs. Yan In Vegas!


    205 lbs.: Maxim Grishin vs. Philipe Lins

    Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) followed an unbeaten Professional Fighters League (PFL) run with a short-notice UFC debut against Marcin Tybura, who outgrappled the Russian veteran to a decision win. Grishin then returned to 205, where he’s beaten Gadzhimurad Antigulov and William Knight while losing a narrow decision to Dustin Jacoby.
    He faces a two-inch reach disadvantage despite being the taller of the two by an inch.
    Philipe Lins’ (15-5) UFC start wasn’t the triumph he’d have liked, as he dropped a decision to Andre Arlovski in his debut before suffering a violent knockout loss to Tanner Boser. Two years and six fight cancelations followed, after which he finally made it into the UFC win column by beating Marcin Prachnio in April 2022.
    His 12 professional finishes include eight by knockout.
    This is honestly a sneaky good match up between adept strikers who’ve yet to really make their marks in the Octagon. While I’m still not convinced that Light Heavyweight is Lins’ best weight class, he looked sharp against Prachnio after a rough start, and Grishin could very easily be 3-0 since losing to Tybura at 265 pounds.
    It’s a coin flip, but I think I favor Grishin. Lins’ speed advantage is offset by a historically shaky chin and, despite taking over as the fight progressed, he still ate a lot of shots from the very limited Prachnio along the way. Grishin’s only stoppage loss in the last decade came to Magomed Ankalaev, so if they mix it up on the feet like I expect them to, it’ll be “Monstro” hitting the deck first.
    Prediction: Grishin via first round technical knockout
    Related
    Yahya Bounced From Garbrandt Fight (Again)


    265 lbs.: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Ilir Latifi

    Aleksei Oleinik (60-16-1) started his UFC career 6-2 before hitting a two-fight skid, but picked right back up where he stopped with wins over Maurice Greene and Fabricio Werdum. Three consecutive losses followed, though “The BkofAma Constrictor” managed to right the ship in April 2022 by submitting Jared Vanderaa.
    His 55 stoppage wins include 47 by submission.
    Consecutive decision losses to Corey Anderson and Volkan Oezdemir sent Latifi Ilir Latifi (15-8) to 265 pounds, where he dropped a decision to Derrick Lewis. Then came 16 months on the sidelines, followed by a split decision over Tanner Boser.
    This marks the first fight for “The Sledgehammer” in nearly 16 months.
    Speaking as a fan of Oleinik’s, this has the potential to be a very, very stupid fight. His moments of grappling brilliance are regularly offset by bizarrely sloppy striking and wrestling, and Latifi has completely transformed from periodically entertaining knockout puncher to wet blanket. Honestly, though, that might work in Latifi’s favor. His complete disinterest in advancing position sorely limits Oleinik’s opportunities to snatch up some esoteric submission in transition, so the easy-to-take-down Oleinik doesn’t have a ton of options to stop Latifi from just smothering him in guard.
    I’d also mention Latifi’s ability to potentially crack Oleinik’s oft-shattered chin, but the former threw 12 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Derrick Lewis, so I’m not expecting much offense from him. Expect a criminally dull lay-and-pray-session by Latifi.
    Prediction: Latifi def. Oleinik via unanimous decision
    Related
    Yahya Bounced From Garbrandt Fight (Again)


    115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci

    Four years almost to the day after a hugely questionable decision loss to Danielle Taylor, Jessica Penne (14-6) announced her return to the Octagon with consecutive wins over Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Then came fellow former Invicta titlist Emily Ducote, who out-struck Penne to hand her her fourth UFC defeat.
    Eight of her 10 pro finishes have come by submission.
    Though an admirably bold move, the short-notice UFC debut for Tabatha Ricci (7-1) against Manon Fiorot saw her battered into submission midway through the second round. Returning to her proper weight class proved fruitful, entering the cage this Saturday having won two straight.
    She gives up four inches of height and five inches of reach to Penne.
    Something of a mirror match here between grappling specialists who do their best work on the inside, pitting the youth and judo prowess of Ricci against the experience and wrestling of Penne. Based on their recent efforts, I’m leaning towards Penne; she’s the more adept of the two at transitioning into dominant positions from the clinch and those height and reach advantages should serve her well in any point-blank dustups.
    Ricci looks to be improving fight to fight and it wouldn’t be too outlandish to see her grind Penne out from guard the way as she did Polyana Viana, but her willingness to go into Penne’s wheelhouse and the latter’s effectiveness there have me thinking that veteran savvy wins the day. Good clinch strikes and long stretches of back control earn Penne the decision.
    Prediction: Penne via unanimous decision


    135 lbs.: Randy Costa (6-3) vs. Guido Cannetti (9-6)

    “The Zohan” rebounded from his first-ever loss to Brandon Davis by smashing Boston Salmon and Journey Newson in under three minutes combined and earning himself a Performance of the Night bonus along the way. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive stoppage losses. All of his pro victories have come by knockout within 2:30.
    Now eight years removed from his stint on the first-ever TUF: Latin America, Cannetti struggled to a 2-5 UFC start. His most recent effort proved his most impressive, however, as he crushed Kris Moutinho in just over two minutes. He gives up three inches of height and five inches of reach to Costa.
    There’s been a trend lately of fighters who, after losing due to cardio problems, become so utterly terrified of gassing out that they barely throw strikes. It happened to Yohan Lainesse, it happened to Louis Cosce, and it looks like it happened to Costa against Tony Kelley. Costa threw just 37 significant strikes in the first round of that fight compared to over 100 against Adrian Yanez, and while that latter pace probably wasn’t sustainable, he overcompensated so much that he lost what made him effective in the first place.
    Still, even a fraction of a fraction of Costa’s abilities should be sufficient to win him this fight. He’s taller, more durable, younger, more technically sound with his strikes, and a hell of a lot more powerful. If he doesn’t chin Cannetti in the first few minutes, he might be broken for good.
    Prediction: Costa by first-round knockout

    185 lbs.: Brendan Allen (19-5) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (24-5)

    “All In” followed up his successful Contender Series appearance with three consecutive UFC victories before running afoul of Sean Strickland. Undeterred, he’s since won four of five, including a narrow decision over Jacob Malkoun in June 2022. His pro finishes are split 10/5 between submissions and knockouts.
    Poland’s Jotko saw a 6-1 UFC start give way to three straight defeats, two of them via knockout. He now sits at 5-1 in his last six with notable wins over Eryk Anders and Gerald Meerschaert. He stands an inch shorter than Allen but will have a two-inch reach advantage.
    Jotko’s role in the Middleweight division is to test your wrestling. His striking, takedown offense, and takedown defense let him outstrike grappling specialists and outwrestles strikers who haven’t properly rounded out their games. That’s fine and dandy against one-dimensional fighters, but not a fellow all-rounder like Allen, who’s also by far the better finisher.
    That looks like the difference here. With a wrestling deadlock likely, Allen’s higher-volume striking attack figures to catch the judges’ eyes than Jotko’s robotic, powerless kickboxing. Don’t expect a barnburner, but do expect Allen to outwork him to a decision win.
    Prediction: Allen by unanimous decision

    140 lbs.: Julija Stoliarenko (10-6-1) vs. Chelsea Chandler (4-1)


    After a one-and-done first UFC stint saw her lose a split decision to Leah Letson, Stoliarenko amassed five wins on the regional circuit to return to the promotion in 2020. Though she lost the first three bouts of her second stint, she came up big in July 2022 with a bonus-winning 42-second armbar of Jessica-Rose Clark. She steps in for Leah Letson on less than two months’ notice.
    Chandler, a Cesar Gracie product, fell short in her 2018 pro debut under the Invicta banner. She’s unbeaten since, most recently ending a nearly two-year layoff with a decision over Courtney King. She is the taller woman by an inch.
    In terms of action potential, Chandler is the most exciting addition to the women’s Bantamweight roster in a long time, a genuine knockout puncher with a quality ground game to back it up. She’s not going to smash Amanda Nunes or anything, but she’s a ton of fun to watch and I hope she does well.
    Maybe it’s that hope talking, but I really like her chances here. While she’s still green enough to get caught in Stoliarenko’s mousetrap of an armbar, she’s by far the more destructive of the two on the feet and Stoliarenko isn’t exactly a defensive wizard. Since Chandler is also ostensibly the stronger wrestler, it really comes down to whether she has the composure to brutalize Stoliarenko with body and head strikes without instinctively going for takedowns. I’ll be an optimist and say yes.
    Prediction: Chandler by first-round TKO

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    JIBBBY
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    Main card X factor Predictions -


    Bantamweight: Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones

    Best Win for Barcelos? Said Nurmagomedov For Jones? Timur Valiev (this column refuses to recognize wins overturned for marijuana)
    Current Streak: Both have lost two in a row
    X-Factor: Barcelos age (35) may be catching up with him
    How these two match up: Recent results be damned, this is an awesome fight.
    Barcelos likely ended up in UFC too late to make the most of his talent, but the Brazilian has shown something special nevertheless. The Brazilian has powerful, patient Muay Thai, unusually excellent chain wrestling, and a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, all of which pairs well with his experience.
    Jones, meanwhile, has one true standout feature: power. “5 Star” is solid everywhere, but tends to win fights as a counter puncher, waiting for that perfect moment to absolutely shut off the lights.
    What’s interesting here is that both fighters conflict with the current Bantamweight meta: throwing a ton of strikes. Neither man could be considered high-volume by any stretch of the imagination, which has ended up costing them potential wins against more active opponents when the finish doesn’t materialize. Against each other, this will likely be a pure battle of strike quality. Whichever man lands the more impactful blows will be the victor, regardless of the strike count.
    I like Barcelos here. Jones’ excellent counter punching is less likely to find a way through the defenses of a composed kickboxer like Barcelos, whose style will give him fewer openings than a volume puncher anyway. Plus, if the Brazilian does decide to take this bout to the canvas, I’m not sure Jones will be able to deny him.
    Prediction: Barcelos via decision
    Related
    Fans Savage GARBAGE New UFC Vegas 61 Poster


    Featherweight: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis

    Best Win for Yusuf? Andre Fili For Shainis? Cody Pfister
    Current Streak: Yusuff returned to the win column last time out, whereas Shainis has won five straight ahead of his UFC debut
    X-Factor: Short notice for Shainis
    How these two match up: Pitting the No. 11-ranked Featherweight vs. a newcomer will produce a predictable win or a truly shocking result.
    Yusuff is a huge Featherweight, and physical gifts come with that size. “Super” hits damn hard and can take a shot very well. In addition to that physicality, Yusuff has developed a technical and patient kickboxing style, and he’s very willing to surprise his foe with a sudden double leg takedown too.
    Massachusetts's Shainis is a six-year pro who has fought almost exclusively for Cage Titans and Bellator. “Shameless” is a striker first and foremost, an aggressive finisher with solid boxing form.
    This just reads like way too much of a step up for Shainis. He’s earned his shot at the UFC, but he doesn’t really look like the type of exceptional signing who could immediately break into the Top 15 — some random “Contender Series” alum would’ve been much more reasonable. Instead, he has to take on the battle-tested Yusuff, and he’s doing it on a shortened camp.
    That’s just not a recipe for success. Most likely, Shainis’ aggression walks him into a huge shot, and Yusuff picks up his first finish since 2019.
    Prediction: Yusuff via knockout
    Related
    Predictions! UFC Vegas 61 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

    Predictions! UFC Vegas 61 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2


    Bantamweight: John Castenada vs. Daniel Santos

    Best Win for Castenada? Miles John For Santos? Nizambek Zhunusov
    Current Streak: Castenada has won two straight, whereas Santos lost his UFC debut last time out
    X-Factor: Castenada is more experienced against tougher opposition
    How these two match up: Bantamweight fights rarely fail to deliver.
    Castenada didn’t debut with a ton of hype behind him, and he came up short in his first UFC fight. Since then, however, “Sexi Mexi” has exceeded expectations, picking up a quality pair of wins via finish to prove his talent on the feet and the canvas. Conversely, Santos has yet to show his best inside the Octagon. The Brazilian has a gnarly spin kick and some quality jiu-jitsu, but neither prevented Julio Arce from absolutely boxing him up in his UFC debut.
    Santos picked up some decent wins on the regional scene, but even considering those performances, it’s hard to be too confident after his debut. Arce utterly controlled him with the jab, and Santos simply seemed lost.
    Seeing as the wrestling may well cancel out here, Castenada is the better and more powerful kickboxer. In short, it’s hard not to see his win streak extending to three this weekend.
    Prediction: Castenada via decision
    Related
    Up Next! Dern Vs. Yan In Vegas!


    Lightweight: Mike Davis vs. Slava Borschev

    Best Win for Davis? Mason Jones For Borschev? Dakota Bush
    Current Streak: Davis has won two in a row, whereas Borschev came up short last time out
    X-Factor: Davis hasn’t fought since January 2021
    How these two match up: This reads like an absolute BANGER!
    Davis is a tremendous athlete with clear potential to do something special at 155 lbs. “Beast Boy” won a spot on the Tiger Muay Thai roster at their tryouts 2019, an accomplishment that puts him on a list with people like Petr Yan and Alexander Volkanovski. Inside the cage, Davis has shown technical kickboxing paired with brutal punching pair.
    Borschev is a highly accomplished Russian kickboxer who only recently transitioned to MMA in 2019. “Slava Claus” is still working to fully strengthen his wrestling and grappling at Team Alpha Male, but his striking is absolutely ferocious.
    Some admitted bias aside, I like this style match up for Slava. Davis is a decent enough wrestler, but that’s not really his style — it’ll exhaust him if he tries to copy Marc Diakiese’s game plan. More likely, this ends up a kickboxing match, which is precisely the type of fight Borschev is chasing.
    Of course, that doesn’t mean its a layup for the Russian. MMA isn’t kickboxing, and anything can happen when dealing with an athlete like Davis wrapped in mere four once gloves. However, knowing firsthand just how sharp of a kickboxer Borschev is, it’s hard to bet against a breakout performance in what’s likely to be an all-out war.
    Prediction: Borschev via decision

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  5. #5
    JIBBBY
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    Did LockSmith die or something? He fell asleep making this thread. I guess I have to take over..

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    Brandt Moat
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    Thanks Jib! Thought we all gave up in here? This card is a weird one. Some real ham and eggers. Could be some good fights. Never judge a card by how old it is? This one-maybe judge a bit. Can't wait for Dern fight. If I was going to the PA line, I would wager a couple hundy on Yan. McKenzie has improved her stand up, but Xiaonan can really move and exit on angles. Her punching can win her the fight. Can she avoid Dern's take downs? Yan gets up after getting taken down pretty good. This one stays upright more then Mckenzie's fine azz wants. (my mind wondered on me lol) My girl gets her azz beat in all the wrong ways... by another chick. Get that plus money +180.

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    JIBBBY
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    No problem Moat^ I'll probably always make the threads if LockSmith is gone because I like referencing back to the write up posts when capping and placing bets Saturday morning after seeing the weigh ins.

    Also doesn't hurt to see the predictions and feels from some of the other posters in these UFC event threads also.

  8. #8
    Brandt Moat
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    Latifi, Allen and Silva in a 3 leg parlay +435. Not high on Latifi. Ollie has just hit the wall. Silva straight takes Ronson to school. Silva will be put on a straight bet for a 1/2 unit @-150. Allen is the wild card in this 3 legger. I feel Allen has faced a bit better competition while in the UFC. If all else fails grab Jotko's ear and try to smother him.GL

  9. #9
    stevex
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    Bet chalk with UFC/MMA. Canít go wrong.

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    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Dern inside the distance or via submission

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    magpie878
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    Thanks Jib! Thought we all gave up in here? This card is a weird one. Some real ham and eggers. Could be some good fights. Never judge a card by how old it is? This one-maybe judge a bit. Can't wait for Dern fight. If I was going to the PA line, I would wager a couple hundy on Yan. McKenzie has improved her stand up, but Xiaonan can really move and exit on angles. Her punching can win her the fight. Can she avoid Dern's take downs? Yan gets up after getting taken down pretty good. This one stays upright more then Mckenzie's fine azz wants. (my mind wondered on me lol) My girl gets her azz beat in all the wrong ways... by another chick. Get that plus money +180.
    Dern's no lock, but Yan most definitely isn't good once it hits the ground. And Dern isn't good getting takedowns, she'll need to really find a way. No idea who wins, but I'll probably try Dern by sub cheap.

  12. #12
    Merlin21
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    Lol wtf really Costa? Oufa

  13. #13
    Brandt Moat
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    Costa didn't want to fight. Pull his contract.

    Quote Originally Posted by Merlin21 View Post
    Lol wtf really Costa? Oufa
    Points Awarded:

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    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    Dern inside the distance or via submission
    I'm fading Dern. Yan by KO. She's to busy playing with her kid and smiling around town. I sense she's soft and a bit fat now. No Asian fade on this one!
    Points Awarded:

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    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm fading Dern. Yan by KO. She's to busy playing with her kid and smiling around town. I sense she's soft and a bit fat now. No Asian fade on this one!
    Wow. I considered the decision but never even considered the KO. I like this even more now that I saw a Betway Boost on Dern by sub at Betway. What ya doing for this next one?

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    Brandt Moat
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    Didn't make it to the PA line. All my air bets will hit!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    Latifi, Allen and Silva in a 3 leg parlay +435. Not high on Latifi. Ollie has just hit the wall. Silva straight takes Ronson to school. Silva will be put on a straight bet for a 1/2 unit @-150. Allen is the wild card in this 3 legger. I feel Allen has faced a bit better competition while in the UFC. If all else fails grab Jotko's ear and try to smother him.GL

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    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC2008 View Post
    Wow. I considered the decision but never even considered the KO. I like this even more now that I saw a Betway Boost on Dern by sub at Betway. What ya doing for this next one?
    Yan has power.. I'm think Dern gets caught then dropped.

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    I like Latifi in this next one big time. Latifi has a big neck and is hard to take down and hard to choke out. Ole is old as shit now. Probably get dropped.

  19. #19
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I like Latifi in this next one big time. Latifi has a big neck and is hard to take down and hard to choke out. Ole is old as shit now. Probably get dropped.
    Latifi decision +300 hits!

  20. #20
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC2008 View Post
    Latifi decision +300 hits!
    Nice.. I just loaded up on for the straight win JC.

    I needed that.. Dec was the call I just didn't trust Ole's chin.

  21. #21
    Allure
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Yan has power.. I'm think Dern gets caught then dropped.
    Ok I'll bite and fade Dern. Never liked that girl due to the language BS.

  22. #22
    Kermit
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    I'll take a chance on the dog at +1700 ITD.

  23. #23
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Nice.. I just loaded up on for the straight win JC.

    I needed that.. Dec was the call I just didn't trust Ole's chin.
    - Me neither. I hedged with Latifi r1, 2, and 3, and also had AO in parlays so I tried to hedge either way. A rare night you can mix UFC/Bellator parlays.

  24. #24
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    I'll take a chance on the dog at +1700 ITD.
    That was $10 down the toilet.

  25. #25
    JIBBBY
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    That was a steam roll. Always bet on Black! Odds were crazy on the straight though. Props or nothing with that fight. RND 1 finish or bust. No one picked submission.

    Dom talking like that choke was the call. Lol.

  26. #26
    magpie878
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    I keep reading about Yan's power. Yet all six of her UFC wins are by decision.

    One of her two losses is by TKO. Other by decision.

  27. #27
    JC2008
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    - Dom needs to not be commentating with his shit, sick voice lol.

  28. #28
    JIBBBY
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    Can the ageless Trinaldo wonder win? All I know is he is impossible to finish. That veteran of the UFC knows how to survive even in a loss.

    Brown by decision for me.

  29. #29
    magpie878
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    If Brown was smart enough to follow up, might have gotten a TKO.

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Can the ageless Trinaldo wonder win? All I know is he is impossible to finish. That veteran of the UFC knows how to survive even in a loss.

    Brown by decision for me.
    +125 cash it.. Rolling here and liking this event. Need Yan to win now and finish strong.

  31. #31
    JIBBBY
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    Had Yan straight and by KO. That works though. This event was a win next.

    Needed this.. Must win these UFC events every Saturday!

  32. #32
    Brandt Moat
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    Must be outta my slump. Won all my air bets...Had that card figured out. Might be jumping back on board.

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