1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
    THE_LOCKSMITH's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-25-08
    Posts: 7,226
    Betpoints: 3955

    UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Yadong (September 17, 2022)



    ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
    Cory Sandhagen vs. Song Yadong
    Chidi Njokuani vs. Gregory Rodrigues
    Andre Fili vs. Bill Algeo
    Alen Amedovski vs. Joe Pyfer
    Tanner Boser vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
    Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Anthony Hernandez

    ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
    Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
    Aspen Ladd vs. Sara McMann
    Louis Cosce vs. Trevin Giles
    Denise Gomes vs. Loma Lookboonmee
    Trey Ogden vs. Daniel Zellhuber
    Mariya Agapova vs. Gillian Robertson
    Javid Basharat vs. Tony Gravely
    Nikolas Motta vs. Cameron VanCamp



    Points Awarded:

    JIBBBY gave THE_LOCKSMITH 12 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 76,393
    Betpoints: 5012

    Prelim write ups -




    115 lbs.: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Denise Gomes

    Loma Lookboonmee (6-3) bounced back from a decision loss to Angela Hill with consecutive victories over Jinh Yu Frey and Sam Hughes. Her fifth UFC bout initially pitted her against Cheyanne Vlismas, but late replacement Lupita Godinez stepped in and out-wrestled Lookboonmee for a unanimous decision win.
    She gives up one inch each of height and reach to Denise Gomes (6-1).
    More than three years after an unsuccessful professional debut, Gomes returned to the cage and racked up four knockouts in her first five wins. She couldn’t put away Contender Series foe, Rayanne Amanda, inside the distance, but still impressed enough to punch her ticket to the Octagon.
    She replaces Diana Belbita on less than two weeks’ notice.
    This will be a test of Lookboonmee’s ability to execute under pressure. She’s the superior overall striking technician, especially when it comes to defense, and her top game is sufficient to let her control entire rounds if she can find her usual trips away from the fence. The counterpoint is Gomes’ raw aggression and power, which combine with an impressive gas tank to let her pressure from bell to bell.
    If Lookboonmee gets caught up in a slugfest, Gomes will land the more damaging and eye-catching strikes. If she gets lazy in the clinch, Gomes will tear up her body with knees. That said, Lookboonmee’s craft and versatility should be sufficient to land quality counters, disrupt Gomes’ offense with takedowns, and ultimately walk away with the win.
    Prediction: Lookboonmee via unanimous decision
    155 lbs.: Trey Ogden vs. Daniel Zellhuber

    Trey Ogden (15-5) claimed both the Fury FC Lightweight title and a UFC contract by choking out J.J. Okanovich on Lookin’ For a Fight. This set up a UFC debut against Jordan Leavitt, who out-worked the Glory MMA product to earn a split decision victory.
    He’s ended 11 professional fights inside the distance, 11 of them by submission.
    Less than six years after debuting at age 17, Daniel Zellhuber (12-0) claimed a spot on Contender Series opposite Lucas Almieda. Though he had to weather some early damage, he took over down the stretch to secure a unanimous decision and spot in the Octagon.
    He’ll have two inches of height and nearly half a foot of reach on Ogden.
    There have been weirder UFC debuts, more one-sided UFC debuts, and more disappointing UFC debuts, but Ogden’s fight with Leavitt still sticks out in my mind. It was downright surreal to watch him stand there and let Leavitt kick him in the legs more than 50 times without so much as an attempted counter. While Zellhuber obviously isn’t the grappling threat “The Monkey King” is, it sure looks like Ogden will have a hell of a time trying to get through Zellhuber’s quick feet and crushing kicks.
    As long as they’re on their feet, Zellhuber is going to run circles around Ogden, tearing up his legs and midsection as he goes. Ogden needs to score regular takedowns to win, and between Zellhuber’s length, footwork, cardio and defensive grappling skill, that’s going to be difficult from the get-go and get harder as the fight progresses. In the end, Zellhuber hobbles him with low kicks and puts him away late.
    Prediction: Zellhuber via third round technical knockout
    Related
    Up Next! Sandhagen Vs. Yadong In Vegas!

    125 lbs.: Mariya Agapova (10-3) vs. Gillian Robertson (10-7)

    A meteoric UFC rise gave way to an equally dramatic fall when Mariya Agapova (10-3) suffered one of the biggest numerical upsets in UFC history at the hands of Shana Dobson. She got back on track by choking out Sabina Mazo one year later, but couldn’t do the same to Maryna Moroz in March 2022.
    She boasts a one-inch height advantage and 5.5-inch reach advantage over “The Savage.”
    An unimpressive The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 run didn’t stop Robertson from putting together a 6-2 UFC start, five of those via stoppage. She’s since lost three of four, including a decision defeat to J.J. Aldrich in March 2022.
    Seven of her eight professional stoppages have come via submission.
    It’s become clear that Robertson’s one-note grappling attack just doesn’t hold up at higher levels. Struggling with powerhouses like Taila Santos and Miranda Maverick is one thing, but she really should have been able to find more wrestling success against Aldrich. The lack of development in her stand up and her weird reticence to consistently shoot takedowns seem destined to keep her from ever being a true contender.
    She should have enough to get past Agapova, though. The latter’s loss to Moroz showed that the grappling issues that cost her on Contender Series and against Dobson have yet to be addressed, so while she’ll have little issue battering Robertson on the feet, keeping it there will be a problem. In short, Robertson lands her signature rear-naked choke sometime in the second.
    Prediction: Robertson via second round submission
    135 lbs.: Tony Gravely vs. Javid Basharat

    Contender Series graduate, Tony Gravely (23-7), opened his UFC career 2-2, wins over Geraldo de Freitas and Anthony Birchak sandwiched between stoppage losses to Brett Johns and Nathan Maness. He enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a two-fight win streak that saw him crush Johnny Muniz Jr. in 68 seconds last time out.
    He is the shorter man by four inches.
    Javid Basharat (12-0) successfully pleaded his case for a UFC contract with a dominant finish of Oron Kahlon on Contender Series in Oct. 2021. His Octagon debut 4.5 months later pitted him against Trevin Jones, whom Basharat out-worked in entertaining fashion for his first decision victory.
    His 11 professional finishes are split 6/5 between submissions and knockouts.
    While Basharat is unquestionably a top-notch prospect, this seems like too much, too soon. Between his excellent wrestling pedigree and powerful hands, Gravely is one of the more underrated Bantamweights, one with much more experience against UFC-caliber competition. He’s without question the strongest takedown artist Basharat has ever faced, and Jones’ moments of success on the front foot suggest that Gravely will also be able to get his hands on Basharat.
    If “The Snow Leopard” can make his usual movement-heavy, pot-shotting style work against someone of Gravely’s caliber, he’s ready to be fast-tracked into contention. As of now, though, I like Gravely’s wrestling to shut down Basharat’s flow and secure a decision win.
    Prediction: Gravely via unanimous decision
    155 lbs.: Nikolas Motta vs. Cameron VanCamp

    Nikolas Motta (12-4) followed his CFFC-title-winning decision over Juan Gonzalez by overpowering Joseph Lowry on Contender Series. Various misfortunes delayed his UFC debut until Feb. 2022, suffering a knockout loss to Jim Miller inside the APEX.
    He faces a five-inch height disadvantage and a four-inch reach disadvantage.
    A 7-1 (1 NC) run marred only by a loss to UFC and Strikeforce veteran Bobby Voelker carried Cameron VanCamp (15-6-1) to the Octagon in 2021. After a planned debut against Motta fell through, VanCamp took on Andre Fialho, who slept him with a left hook midway through the first round.
    Nine of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
    The question here is where Motta’s head is at. His counter-bully style demands a lot of confidence and mindfulness, and if he’s rattled by that knockout loss to Miller or the fact that Miller was winning the stand up even before the finish, he could have a lot of issues with VanCamp’s wonky stand up.
    Seeing as Motta’s been knocked out before, though, I think he knows how to bounce back. That’s not great news for VanCamp, especially since Motta is sharp enough and hits hard enough to exploit the same defensive liabilities that Fialho did. Assuming he’s firing on at least most of his cylinders, Motta chins VanCamp with a counter in the first few minutes.
    Prediction: Motta via first round technical knockout



    185 lbs.: Anthony Hernandez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

    Anthony Hernandez (9-2) breathed new life into his ailing UFC career with a massive upset of Rodolfo Vieira in Feb. 2021. Though injury and other issues kept him out of action for the next 14 months, “Fluffy” made up for lost time with a unanimous decision win over Josh Fremd.
    He has scored seven stoppage wins as a professional, six of them via submission.
    Marc-Andre Barriault (14-5) initially struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, losing three straight and seeing a knockout of Oskar Piechota overturned because of a failed drug test. “Powerbar” has since won three of four, including finishes of Abu Azaitar and Jordan Wright.
    He stands one inch taller than Hernandez, but gives up an inch of reach.
    Barriault’s key weapon is attrition — he leans on his power, aggression and durability to fill the technical gaps in his game and take over down the stretch. There are plenty of fighters who that approach works on, but Hernandez isn’t one of them. “Fluffy” is every bit as persistent and well-conditioned with the added bonus of a relentless wrestling game the likes of which Barriault has repeatedly struggled against.
    That grappling onslaught is his key to victory. If Barriault has a striking advantage, it’s not significant enough to offset the fact that Hernandez will constantly disrupt it with takedown attempts. Barriault can’t wear down Hernandez when the latter always has an out, though that won’t matter much when Hernandez finds his neck in an early scramble.
    Prediction: Hernandez via first round submission
    Related
    Up Next! Sandhagen Vs. Yadong In Vegas!

    145 lbs.: Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini

    A triumphant, bonus-winning submission of Mirsad Bektic earned Damon Jackson (21-4-1) his first UFC victory, though the heavy hands of Ilia Topuria sent him right back into the loss column. Undaunted, “The Leech” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of three straight wins, among them an arm triangle finish of Contender Series veteran, Kamuela Kirk.
    His 18 professional stoppage wins include 15 by submission.
    After losing his CFFC title because of a freak arm injury, Pat Sabatini (17-3) reclaimed it two fights later with an armbar finish of Jesse Stirn. He’s since amassed four wins in the Octagon and walked away with a performance bonus for his heel hook finish of Jamall Emmers.
    He is the shorter man by three inches and faces a one-inch reach disadvantage.
    This fight will be entirely determined by which of these two can consistently take down the other. Both possess suffocating top game and top-notch submission defense, so whoever ends up on his back is probably going to stay there for quite some time. Plus, they’ve each easily dominated fellow wrestlers in recent efforts, so it’s difficult to determine whose grappling will come up short.
    With acknowledgement that I regularly underestimate the both of them, I’m giving Sabatini the nod. His routs of Tucker Lutz and T.J. Laramie stand out as the strongest grappling performances on either man’s resume outside of Jackson’s guillotine finish of Bektic, and “The Leech” was losing practically every second of that fight beforehand. In the end, Sabatini fails to find the finish, but still maintains control for the full 15 minutes.
    Prediction: Sabatini via unanimous decision
    170 lbs.: Trevin Giles vs. Louis Cosce

    Trevin Giles (14-4) claimed stoppage wins in his first two UFC appearances, then stepped away from the sport for 1.5 years to go through police training, He sits at 3-4 since his return, all of those losses inside the distance.
    He’ll enjoy three inches of height and reach on Louis Cosce (7-1).
    A 62-second knockout of Victor Reyna earned Cosce a UFC contract and his seventh first-round finish in seven fights. He looked poised to score another in his UFC debut against Sasha Palatnikov, only to fade down the stretch and fall in the third round of UFC 255’s “Fight of the Night.”
    This marks his appearance in nearly 22 months.
    It’s bizarre how badly Giles has deteriorated since his time at the police academy. Indeed, you can’t even see a glimmer of the fearsome boxing he used to dissect Antonio Braga Neto anymore. Heck, there’s an argument to be made that he should be 1-6 in his last seven, as both James Krause and Roman Dolidze had legitimate arguments for beating him.
    On the other hand, Cosce lost to Sasha Palatnikov of all people.
    I’ve flip-flopped on this one, thanks in no small part to the fact that Cosce hasn’t fought in almost two years, but I just can’t trust Giles. Between his severe technical decline, poor in-cage decision-making and recent lack of durability, I say Cosce blitzes him out in the first couple minutes, though he’s admittedly toast if it goes past the first round.
    Prediction: Cosce via first round technical knockout
    Related
    ‘Ninja’ Bounced From UFC Vegas 60

    135 lbs.: Aspen Ladd vs. Sara McMann

    Aspen Ladd (9-3) followed a dominant Invicta run with three consecutive Octagon victories and a pair of post-fight bonuses. She now finds herself in a 1-3 hole, including consecutive losses to Norma Dumont and Raquel Pennington.
    She has scored six (technical) knockout finishes and a submission win since turning professional.
    Sara McMann (13-6) put a 1-3 skid behind her to win three straight, only to suffer consecutive submission losses. She enters the cage this Saturday at 2-1 in her last three, most recently upsetting Karol Rosa in March 2022.
    At 41, she is 14 years older than Ladd.
    The narrative here looks the same as all of McMann’s other fights: her terrific wrestling and crushing top game give her the means to control things from bell to bell, but she’ll fold at the slightest bit of adversity. If Ladd gets on top at any point, she’ll almost assuredly find the finish, as her ground-and-pound is more than sufficient to make McMann wilt.
    That’s a big “if,” though.
    For all that I rag on McMann’s inability to get out of bad spots, Ladd looked completely lost against Dumont and Pennington. She seems unable to muster up the confidence that carried her to early UFC success, and if Pennington could physically bully her, McMann certainly can. In short, McMann grinds her way to an uninspiring victory, but don’t be at all surprised if she flubs something, ends up on her back, and gets blasted into oblivion.
    Prediction: McMann via unanimous decision
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/17/2022


  3. #3
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 21,309
    Betpoints: 757

    outside of Jackson’s guillotine finish of Bektic, and “The Leech” was losing practically every second of that fight beforehand.

    Let me make this perfectly clear. Sabatini will not gas like Bektic

  4. #4
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,428
    Betpoints: 578

    Big on Chidi....
    Points Awarded:

    JAKEPEAVY21 gave PaperTrail07 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    magpie878
    magpie878's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-04-18
    Posts: 1,377
    Betpoints: 6234

    Sabatini should win handily. He's ridiculously good, though not usually a finisher.

    Robertson should win too, probably by sub. She can certainly crap the bed, but this looks like one she should win.

  6. #6
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,428
    Betpoints: 578

    I like Agapova here----maybe Ill pass on this one....
    Quote Originally Posted by magpie878 View Post
    Sabatini should win handily. He's ridiculously good, though not usually a finisher.

    Robertson should win too, probably by sub. She can certainly crap the bed, but this looks like one she should win.

  7. #7
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,428
    Betpoints: 578

    I also think Pyfer ITD is a bet...they are basically setting Amedovski up on a golf tee for him...

  8. #8
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 26,689
    Betpoints: 42428

    Liking Sandhagen at first glance...he has fought better competition overall(although Yadong has fought a few big names) and also not that keen on backing Alpha Male fighters.
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave JAKEPEAVY21 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/21/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/17/2022


  9. #9
    JC2008
    JC2008's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-08
    Posts: 2,077
    Betpoints: 12

    - Worst thread discussion for any UFC event I've ever seen on this forum.

  10. #10
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 21,309
    Betpoints: 757

    This was Pats worst performance of his career and its getting old that his family keeps getting shunned getting tickets (last two fights) and we get to see his opponent have ten people with his family get tickets. I talk to him after the lost and he just wanted to get home with his family. Something just isn't right. Kudos to Jackson and his fence grabbing. He hit Pat with a kick that most of us knew was Jackson big weapon (his right kick) but his coaches didn't. It is what it is.

  11. #11
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 26,689
    Betpoints: 42428

    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    This was Pats worst performance of his career and its getting old that his family keeps getting shunned getting tickets (last two fights) and we get to see his opponent have ten people with his family get tickets. I talk to him after the lost and he just wanted to get home with his family. Something just isn't right. Kudos to Jackson and his fence grabbing. He hit Pat with a kick that most of us knew was Jackson big weapon (his right kick) but his coaches didn't. It is what it is.
    He got starched, quit making excuses.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/21/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/17/2022


  12. #12
    magpie878
    magpie878's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-04-18
    Posts: 1,377
    Betpoints: 6234

    I really wanted to go big on Robertson's sub prop... I went small. And sadly, went bigger on Sabatini's ML. Ugh.
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave magpie878 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  13. #13
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 21,309
    Betpoints: 757

    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    He got starched, quit making excuses.
    hey dik wipe i hate to break it to you but Jackson blatantly grab the fence when pat was wiggling out from the mount. A clear cheat. You wont of course look at the film and just spout nonsense. Another thing let Jackson get his glory he beat a shell of a kid who shouldnt have fought that night. That i will keep to my self

Top