[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
Michel Pereira vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Chidi Njokuani vs. Dusko Todorovic
Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter
Tabatha Ricci vs. Polyana Viana
Eryk Anders vs. Junyong Park

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Alen Amedovski vs. Joseph Holmes
Uros Medic vs. Omar Morales
Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
Chase Hooper vs. Felipe Colares
Elise Reed vs. Sam Hughes

[Allure]

Holm is still alive? I'm taking Vieira or whatever her name is.
-210 Holm lol.

[hankcream]

All these women's fights are unbettable for me, 90% of the time they go to decision and then it's basically a coin flip. The sharp thing to do is take the value side but you still might get fukked over by the judges.

Pereira vs Ponzinibbio should be a great fight, I'm leaning the younger crazier mf'er Pereira

[magpie878]

Holm is still alive? I'm taking Vieira or whatever her name is.
-210 Holm lol.

I wouldn't feel great taking Holm, but I'd feel awful hitching my wagon to Vieira.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree----Liking Morales -150 vs Medic....Morales Cardio and ize should be enough IMO.... Thoughts? Think it ends -180 ishhh

I wouldn't feel great taking Holm, but I'd feel awful hitching my wagon to Vieira.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -







135 lbs.: Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales

Jonathan Martinez (15-4) had a rather inauspicious UFC start, as he found himself dominated by Andrew Soukhamthath in Moncton. He now sits at 6-2 in his last eight bouts, one of those losses coming by highly questionable decision against Andre Ewell.
“Dragon” will have a one-inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach on “Vandetta.”
Vince Morales (11-5) likewise initially struggled to find his footing in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, dropping three of his first four UFC bouts. He has since righted the ship with two straight wins, among them a vicious knockout of Louis Smolka in Dec. 2021.
The win marked his sixth professional (technical) knockout and eighth professional finish overall.
It’s worth making clear that Morales’ .500 UFC record undersells his abilities. One of those losses was a garbage decision against Benito Lopez and the other two came against some of the division’s best strikers in Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez. Still, I don’t see this going particularly well for him. That’s because the Gutierrez fight showed a clear blueprint for taking him apart with kicks, which Martinez has the skills to replicate.
Morales has some real power in his right hand and some genuine boxing chops, so it’s not out of the question that he could lamp Martinez the way Davey Grant did if “Dragon” gets too comfortable mixing it up inside. Still, it’s likelier that Martinez plays a conservative game, taking apart Morales’ lead leg and keeping him at a distance for UFC victory No. 7.
Prediction: Martinez via unanimous decision
Related
Coming. Up. Next.


145 lbs.: Chase Hooper vs. Felipe Colares (10-3)

Though Chase Hooper’s (10-2-1) win on Contender Series only earned him a developmental contract, he worked his way to the Octagon proper with a 3-0-1 run on the regional circuit. He now sits at 2-2 in the world’s largest MMA promotion, most recently dropping a decision to Steven Peterson.
His eight professional stoppages include five submissions.
Felipe Colares (10-3) — the former Jungle Fight Featherweight champion — has alternated losses and wins since joining UFC undefeated (7-0). His last two fights have seen him survive early trouble to overpower Luke Sanders and battle Chris Gutierrez to a split decision loss.
He gives up five inches of height and six inches of reach to Hooper.
Enormously limited though he may be, Colares has the right set of skills to knock Hooper’s UFC record back below .500. He’s insanely durable, extremely aggressive and sufficiently skilled on the ground to hold his own in Hooper’s wheelhouse.
That’s assuming they even go there, of course. Colares showed against Sanders that he can do some work on the feet by just marching forward and swinging for the fences, and while the Brazilian is much of a wrestler, Hooper’s shiny 18 percent takedown percentage has me thinking that any grappling exchanges will be on the former’s terms. Seeing as his Brazilian jiu-jitsu is sharp enough to avoid getting caught in a quick-kill submission the way Peter Barrett was, all signs point to Colares tanking his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Colares via unanimous decision
Related
Defiant Holm Will Fight ‘Until The Wheels Fall Off’


115 lbs: Elise Reed vs. Sam Hughes (6-4)

Less than two months after winning the Cage Fury Strawweight title, Elise Reed (5-1) moved up in weight for a short-notice debut against Sijara Eubanks. Though that predictably ended poorly, she got back on track eight months later with a split decision over Contender Series graduate Cory McKenna.
She faces a two-inch height disadvantage and a 1.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Sam Hughes (6-4) opened her UFC career with three consecutive losses to division standouts Tecia Torres, Loma Lookboonmee and Luana Pinhero. She came up big with her back against the wall, though, out-lasting a strong start from Istela Nunes to claim a majority decision victory.
“Sampage” has scored three submissions and a knockout as a professional.
My basic read on this fight is that Reed has many of the same tools that Nunes used to great effect while also lacking some of the issues that let Hughes take over in the latter two rounds. Though she can’t match Nunes’ power, Reed’s footwork should allow her to pick off Hughes’ linear rushes and steer clear of the fence. Plus, Reed’s cardio is nowhere near as suspect as Nunes,’ so she’s unlikely to fade late.
Hughes’ two biggest weapons in this match up are her wrestling and adaptability. The former shouldn’t be an issue so long as Reed stays mobile, and the greater variety of her striking compared to Nunes makes it much more difficult for Hughes to get dialed in in time to retake control. In the end, Reed’s rangy offense should carry her to a narrow win.
Prediction: Reed via unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Joseph Holmes vs. Alen Amedovski

Three months after tapping Shonte Barnes on Contender Series, Joseph Holmes (7-2) stepped up on short notice to face fellow alumnus Jamie Pickett. Though he started strong, “Ugly Man Joe” ultimately faded down the stretch en route to his first loss since his professional debut.
All of his professional victories have come inside the distance, five by submission.
Alen Amedovski’s (8-2) short-notice Octagon debut against Krzysztof Jotko didn’t work out for him, as the Pole’s wrestling prowess condemned Amedovski to a decision loss. Then came John Phillips, who knocked Amedovski cold just 17 seconds into the first round.
He fights for the first time in almost 33 months.
Yes, Holmes fell well short in a very winnable match up with Pickett. Yes, he showed some worrying red flags in the process. No, I’m not going to pick him to lose to a guy who only managed to land eight significant strikes in two UFC appearances. Amedovski doesn’t have the stand up skills to deal with Holmes height, reach and clinch abilities; nor does he have the ground chops to either keep it there or get anything going off of his back.
Amedovski could have improved during his three years away, of course, but the guy willingly slugged it out in the pocket with Phillips, one of the most comically one-note fighters in UFC history. And I’m not sure there’s any fixing that — Holmes strangles him inside the first five minutes.
Prediction: Holmes via first round submission
Related
Coming. Up. Next.


265 lbs.: Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter

Jailton Almeida (15-2) — undefeated since a 5-2 start — flipped the script on Contender Series by dominating wrestling specialist, Nasrudin Nasrudinov, on the mat. “Malhadinho” was similarly dominant in his UFC debut, mauling fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Danilo Marques for a first-round ground-and-pound finish.
His finishes are split 9/6 between submissions and knockouts.
Parker Porter (13-6) had the unenviable task of making his UFC debut against Chris Daukaus, who battered him into submission late in the first round. He’s since put together a three-fight win streak, most recently edging out Alan Baudot in Feb. 2022.
He steps in for Maxim Grishin on one month’s notice.
I’m definitely a fan of Porter’s — we haven’t had many six-foot, bowling ball-type Heavyweight competitors of late, and he fits that bill nicely. I’m also extremely aware that he’s boned here, as there is no size advantage large enough to make up for Almeida’s edge on the mat. The ease with which “Malhadinho” has tossed people around suggests that he’ll get Porter to the mat without too much trouble, and from there it’s just a question of whether the Brazilian decides to pound him out or choke him out.
The only way Porter wins this is if Almeida mismanages his energy. Otherwise, expect another quick wipeout on the ground.
Prediction: Almeida by first round technical knockout
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155 lbs.: Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic

Omar Morales (11-2) went from brutally upsetting Harvey Park on Contender Series to claiming victory in his first two UFC appearances. He then elected to drop to Featherweight, where he went 1-2.
He’ll have a three-inch reach advantage over Uros Medic (7-1) despite being two inches shorter.
“The Doctor” kept his first-round finishing streak alive by thrashing Mikey Gonzalez on the Contender Series, then needed even less time to put away Aalon Cruz in his Octagon debut. His second UFC appearance pitted him against fellow Contender Series alum, Jalin Turner, who put an end to Medic’s unbeaten record via first-round club-and-sub.
Five of his seven wins have come via knockout.
There’s still a lot we don’t know about Medic. Indeed, all we learned in his UFC debut is that he isn’t great off of his back, which is a bit worrying, and that he’ll go down if Turner hits him clean, which is true for virtually the entire Lightweight division. He’s ostensibly got a higher upside than Morales just thanks to his speed and stopping power, so the question is whether he’s far enough along in his development to deal with Morales’ simple-but-effective offense.
A career full of smashing inadequate competition and a UFC victory over a long-time Featherweight aren’t enough to convince me that he’s there yet. Only Giga Chikadze has managed to hurt Morales in the Octagon, so I like him to weather the early storm, then feed Medic a steady diet of one-two combinations and low kicks en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Morales via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Holm is still alive? I'm taking Vieira or whatever her name is.
-210 Holm lol.

Agreed, hard to bet on Holm at this point. She's always been beatable since her claim to fame KO of Rousey.

[JIBBBY]

Dogs have a chance in this event. I could see a bunch barking. Could go with the ITD dog theory on every fight in this event and see what sticks? Tempted..

[hankcream]

Can’t wait to see Ricci vs Viera both these girls are smoking hot. I’d let either one of them put me in a triangle.

2 units Yo Boi Anders +170
3 unit parlay Morales & Njokuani w/ MGM boost +185

[Demonata]

Holly Holm all day!

[Allure]

[JIBBBY]

^ fake but they look good. One good placed hard punch to one of those silicon titties and they could explode!

[Demonata]

^ fake but they look good. One good placed hard punch to one of those silicon titties and they could explode!

I don't like fake .

[Allure]

Obviously fake , but I like them. Natural, yet saggy are just . Joanna also has implants, not sure if I'd want to fight Weili who can pop those puppies wide open.

[Demonata]

Letsss goooooooo

image uploading

[JC2008]

Hooper! What a savage!

[Demonata]

Gooper won. Wow!

[Kermit]

Hooper! What a savage!

I wanted to bet him, I didn't think the fights started until 6 est.

[Kermit]

Need an Almeida finish here.

[Kermit]

Got Holmes ITD next.

[Merlin21]

Got Holmes ITD next.

Easy... Nice hit sir

[Merlin21]

How the penetrate did Park win that?

[Kermit]

How the penetrate did Park win that?

No money on that one, but I thought Anders should have won.

[Kermit]

Got Polyana By submission +350 in the next one.

[JIBBBY]

Hit and miss with this event so far. Had Anders by decision. That stung ..

I thought he did enough against the Asian bald Turtle with his pressure and couple take downs. It was a hug fest though against the cage. I don't call that a robbery but still.

[Merlin21]

Meh... he controlled the octagon, 2 takedowns, some good shots and more control time against the cage.... Guess Anders should of went for TKO instead of trying to "elevate" his game

[Thor4140]

Holm has only lost to the top of the food chain oh and Meisha Tate in a fluke chalked up to inexperience. she should pick this chick apart but the problem is that if she doesn't knock her out with a kick her pillow hands will take it to a decision and like allure say's you have to trust the judges don't screw ya.

[JIBBBY]

Fading Holm at 40 years of age. Can't trust her.

[JIBBBY]

These chick fights are so boring to me.

[Allure]

Lol Holm is 40, didnt know she was that old. Thought she was 35-36ish. She will punch the air as always and if Vieira can get her down she will have control time on her side. Either way both can't be trusted and in that case you simply take the +200 if you have it going either way. I think this goes to the judges, this has split decision written all over it so I'm taking +200 in a coin flip fight. Lets see, not playing anything big.

[Kermit]

Got Chidi ITD

[Kermit]

Got Chidi ITD

Holy Fukk, Walk off elbow.

[JIBBBY]

Got Chidi ITD

Wasn't that prop at like -330 or something? Good call regardless Kermy. Elbow from hell and game over there just like that.

[Kermit]

Wasn't that prop at like -330 or something? Good call regardless Kermy. Elbow from hell and game over there just like that.

No, -108. Chidi was like -250 just to win. Almeida was -220 to finish.

[Kermit]

Got Ponzi +125 and ITD +320