[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo
Rafael Fiziev vs. Brad Riddell
Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells
Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill
Maki Pitolo vs. Dusko Todorovic

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Manel Kape
Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis
Cheyanne Buys vs. Mallory Martin
William Knight vs. Alonzo Menifield
Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Claudio Puelles
Philipe Lins vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Mickey Gall vs. Alex Morono
Vince Morales vs. Louis Smolka

[Sanity Check]

Rafael Fiziev vs. Brad Riddell



Either of those guys might be good enough to beat Justin Gaethje / Michael Chandler in a stand up fight.

Underrated scrap for sure.

[magpie878]

I hope Crute's foot (or whatever specific injury) has healed... I like watching him fight.

[Sanity Check]

Jamahal Hill recovered fast from whatever Paul Craig did to his arm.

5 months ago.

[Thor4140]

Rafael Fiziev vs. Brad Riddell


Either of those guys might be good enough to beat Justin Gaethje / Michael Chandler in a stand up fight.

Underrated scrap for sure.

this is one heck of a fight. Toss up in my mind. Riddell is as tough as they come. Fiziev is solid and exciting. Wish it was five rounder. I kinda lean Riddell but wouldn’t bet it with your money Sanity

[Sanity Check]

Riddell is as tough as they come. Fiziev is solid and exciting.

Their kickboxing technique and stand up are in the top 5 of the division.

Maybe top 3.

That's what sets them apart.

[Thor4140]

Their kickboxing technique and stand up are in the top 5 of the division.

Maybe top 3.

That's what sets them apart.

Riddell uses his kick boxing skills about as much as Aldo uses his kick. Rarely for some reason

[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -







205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight

Alonzo Menifield (11-2) built up quite a head of steam with three straight UFC knockout wins, only to drop consecutive bouts to Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux. He has since returned to form by choking out late replacement Fabio Cherant and battering the venerable Ed Herman.
“Atomic” will enjoy two inches of height and three inches of reach on Knight.
A successful UFC debut saw William Knight (10-2) out-last fellow “Contender Series” contestant Aleksa Camur, though he failed to overcome Da Un Jung’s wrestling onslaught his next time out. His third Octagon bout pitted him against the aforementioned Cherant, whom Knight annihilated with a counter hook late in the first round.
“Knightmare” has scored nine knockouts as a professional.
The first time these two were supposed to fight, I picked Knight to wear Menifield down for a late ground-and-pound finish. They’ve both fought twice since then, and my opinion has definitely changed. Knight’s boxing remains remarkably poor, and though Menifield isn’t exactly a sharpshooter, he still has by far the more cohesive and destructive striking attack.
While that’s pretty much always been the case, I don’t see Knight having as much success getting into range as I originally envisioned. Menifield’s still doomed if he willingly engages in the clinch, of course, but he fought quite well on the outside against Herman. I expect him to do the same here, picking at Knight’s lead leg until he’s stationary enough to eat one of Menifield’s monster right hands.
Prediction: Menifield def. Knight via second round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! Font Battles Aldo In Vegas!

155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

Peru’s Claudio Puelles (10-2) hasn’t been the busiest UFC fighter, competing just four times in the last five years, but he’s amassed three victories in that span. The most recent of those saw him net his second Octagon upset by outlasting Contender Series graduate Jordan Leavitt in June 2021.
“El Nino” has scored five submission victories as a professional.
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Chris Gruetzemacher (15-4) struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, as injuries and tough match ups held him to 2-4 over the span of seven years. He came up big with his back against the wall in July 2021, out-lasting Rafa Garcia for a sizable upset win.
He is the shorter of the two by three inches and faces a four-inch reach disadvantage.
I’ll admit that I don’t give him enough credit in general, but Puelles’ UFC record really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Felipe Silva beat him half to death before tapping to a leglock, Marcos Mariano was among the worst UFC signees in recent memory and now sits at .500, and Leavitt was dead weight after the first round. While Gruetzemacher isn’t a world-beater, he’s got solid wrestling and terrific cardio, which is all he really needs to grind Puelles down.
Puelles’ only shot at victory lies in dragging Gruetzemacher to the mat and getting his top game going, but he’s just not a strong enough takedown artist to make that work. Gruetzemacher batters him on the feet for a late finish.
Prediction: Gruetzemacher via third round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Jared Vanderaa

After injury scrapped a planned UFC debut against Joachim Christensen in 2017, Azamat Murzakanov (10-0) took his talents to Brave CF, where he fought Octagon veteran Guto Inocente and Mohammad Fakhreddine in one night to win its Openweight title. This set up a “Contender Series” clash with Matheus Scheffel, whom Murzakanov knocked out in three minutes to secure a UFC contract.
That win marked his seven (technical) knockout finish and eighth stoppage overall.
Though he fell well short against Sergey Spivak in his UFC debut, Jared Vanderaa (12-6) made his way into UFC’s win column with a terrific “Fight of the Night” decision over Justin Tafa. He then faced unbeaten Alexander Romanov, who toppled “The Mountain” with ground-and-pound.
He steps in for Philipe Lins on less than one week’s notice.
This is honestly something of a toss up on the feet. Though Murzakanov has a clear edge in footwork, speed, and one-shot power, Vanderaa has six inches of height, nine inches of reach, and somewhere around 40 pounds on him. “The Mountain” also showed remarkable fluidity and volume for his size against Tafa, meaning Murzakanov can’t necessarily run circles around him.
Unfortunately for Vanderaa, Murzakanov has a stout wrestling attack in his back pocket, and the big man’s takedown defense has consistently failed him on the world stage. While he could theoretically outlast Murzakanov in a pure striking battle, “The Professional’s” ground game looks like a deciding factor that Vanderaa can’t overcome. Murzakanov hands him his third UFC loss via ground-and-pound before the third round.
Prediction: Murzakanov via second round technical knockout
Related
Font ‘In A Weird Spot’ Ahead Of Aldo Fight

170 lbs.: Alex Morono vs. Mickey Gall

Alex Morono (20-7) put a 1-2 (1 NC) skid behind him to win six of his next eight and take home two post-fight bonuses along the way. His current two-fight win streak includes a stoppage of Donald Cerrone and a unanimous decision over David Zawada.
“The Great White” gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Mickey Gall (7-3).
Gall — who had just one prior fight under his belt — started his UFC career strong with three straight wins and an upset of Sage Northcutt. He’s since alternated losses and wins, most recently choking out Jordan Williams in July 2021.
All but one of his professional wins have come by rear-naked choke.
I regularly underestimate Morono, whose predilection for looping punches belies some very solid timing, and my knee-jerk reaction was to pick Gall here. On further consideration, however, the case for Gall falls apart. Morono’s never been submitted as a professional, and while he’s not terribly difficult to take down, nobody’s managed to hold him down for extended periods of time. Even if Gall does manage to find early success, it’s inevitable that Morono will get it back to the feet and take over with raw aggression once Gall’s gas tank starts to empty.
Morono will never be a truly elite fighter, but he’s got the right toolbox to wear down Gall and put the hurt on him. In the end, he snowballs his way to an increasingly one-sided win.
Prediction: Morono via unanimous decision
Related
Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

135 lbs.: Louis Smolka vs. Vince Morales

Louis Smolka’s (17-7) once-promising UFC run came to an end when a stunning upset loss to Brandon Moreno kicked off a four-fight losing streak. Three straight finishes on the regional circuit brought him back to the Octagon, where he’s won three of his last five.
He has scored eight professional knockouts and seven submissions.
Vince Morales (10-5) had Domingo Pilarte in all sorts of trouble on “Contender Series,” but fell victim to a comeback submission midway through the second round. He nonetheless found his way to UFC later that year, and has since amassed a 2-3 record.
“Vandetta” will be the shorter man by two inches.
This is one of those match ups that’s “close” in the sense that each of them have gigantic advantages in different areas, meaning it all boils down to where it takes place. On the feet, Smolka’s all-offense approach leaves him dreadfully vulnerable to Morales’ missile of a right hand. On the ground, Morales is no match for “Da Last Samurai’s” beautifully kinetic submission attack.
While Smolka can turn things around in an instant, I favor Morales to keep it in his wheelhouse. Smolka is a historically poor takedown artist who capitalized on Jose Alberto Quinonez’s own takedown attempt to get it to the ground last time. Morales doesn’t figure to give him that same sort of opportunity. An early knockout wouldn’t surprise me, but considering how difficult it is to put Smolka away on the feet, expect Morales to piece him up for a wide decision.
Prediction: Morales via unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Maki Pitolo vs. Dusko Todorovic

It’s been a rough UFC road for Maki Pitolo (13-8), who earned his way into the world’s largest fight promotion with an impressive body shot finish of Justin Sumter. He currently sits at 1-4 in his last five bouts, most recently tapping to a late anaconda choke from Julian Marquez at UFC 258.
“Coconut Bombz” is the shorter of the two by three inches.
He needed to make his first trip to the judges to do it, but Dusko Todorovic (10-2) secured a UFC contract by beating Teddy Ash on “Contender Series,” then returned to his finishing ways with a ground-and-pound technical knockout of Dequan Townsend in his Octagon debut. He’s lost two fights since to fellow series veterans Punahele Soriano and Gregory Rodrigues, the latter of them in June 2021.
He sports six professional knockout wins and three submissions.
I didn’t expect terribly much out of Todorovic, but I’d be lying if I said Pitolo hadn’t let me down. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s a terrifically entertaining and destructive boxer. When he’s not, well, you’ve seen what happens. He didn’t even impress in his one UFC win, as Charles Byrd dominated the first round before imploding in the second.
While Todorovic isn’t anything to write home about, he’s a decent grinder who can keep Pitolo flat against the fence for 15 minutes without too much issue. Pitolo definitely has the tools to batter him into submission, but I’m long past expecting him to actually utilize them.
Prediction: Todorovic via unanimous decision
Related
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170 lbs.: Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells

Jakes Matthews’ (17-5) move to Welterweight paid immediate dividends, claiming victory in six of his next seven bouts. Then came the red-hot Sean Brady, who caught “The Celtic Kid” in an arm triangle late in the third round.
He stands two inches taller than Jeremiah Wells (9-2-1) at 5’11,” but gives up three inches of reach.
Nearly two years after choking out Marco Smallman for CFFC’s Welterweight championship, Wells stepped into the Octagon to meet former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” winner Warlley Alves. Wells claimed the first round with solid wrestling and raw aggression, then violently knocked Alves out 30 seconds into the second round for his third straight win.
His seven stoppages are split 4/3 between knockouts and submissions.
Even if Matthews failed to become Australia’s new standard-bearer, he still looks to be a level above wells. He’s unquestionably the more skilled of the two on the feet, where his learned kickboxing out-classes Wells’ full-body swings, and Wells ostensibly lacks the overpowering wrestling that Rocco Martin and the aforementioned Brady used to neutralize Matthews.
Between the technical gap and Wells’ unsustainable pace, he needs an early knockout to win this. Seeing as Matthews has never even been visibly hurt on the feet in the Octagon, that doesn’t seem terribly likely. In short, Matthews sprawls-and-brawls his way to an increasingly one-sided victory.
Prediction: Matthews via unanimous decision
Related
Aldo Eyes Dillashaw On Yan-Sterling Undercard

125 lbs.: Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Manel Kape (16-6) didn’t exactly hit the ground running in the Octagon, suffering controversial decision losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau. The writing seemed to be on the wall when he missed weight in his third bout, but a beautiful flying knee finally got “Prodigio” into UFC’s win column.
All but one of his professioanl victories have come inside the distance, 10 of them by form of knockout.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov’s (14-5) championship run in Fight Nights Global earned him a spot in UFC’s deep end, where he fell to Raulian Paiva and Amir Albazi in successive efforts. His persistence ultimately paid off in July 2021, choking out Jerome Rivera in impressive fashion.
He gives up one inch of height and two inches of reach to Kape.
His Octagon record may not be particularly pretty, but Zhumagulov is more than capable of ruining Kape’s day if “Prodigio” hasn’t fixed the volume issues that have plagued him thus far. “Zhako” is utterly relentless and puts together the sorts of eye-catching flurries that could sway a judge on the fence.
If Kape does have his head on straight, it’s a different story. He’s by far the heavier hitter of the two, is the more diverse striker and has a decent amount of height and reach to work with. Plus, one has to imagine that he’s twice bitten, thrice shy at this point. In the end, quick, long-range combinations should keep him out of Zhumagulov’s reach and carry him to victory.
Prediction: Kape via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Font Battles Aldo In Vegas!

115 lbs.: Mallory Martin vs. Cheyanne Buys

A 1-2 professional start gave way to five straight wins for Mallory Martin (7-4), among them a “Contender Series” victory over Micol de Segni in 2019. Things haven’t gone quite as smoothly in the Octagon, as she sandwiched a comeback finish of Hannah Cifers between submission losses to Virna Jandiroba and Polyana Viana.
She has knocked out and submitted two professional foes apiece.
Cheyanne Buys (6-2) dominated Hilarie Rose on “Contender Series” to earn herself a UFC contract and her fourth straight win, only for Montserrat Ruiz to halt her momentum in its tracks in her promotional debut. She got back on track in a big way, however, flattening Gloria de Paula with a “Performance of the Night”-winning head kick four months later.
She steps in for the aforementioned Ruiz on around three weeks’ notice.
Buys’ wrestling failed her spectacularly against Ruiz, and while the striking-savvy de Paula had no inclination to test it again, Martin certainly has the skills and drive to do so. That win over Cifers showcased what Martin can do when she’s not pitted against elite ground artists.
That fight also showcased her serious defensive issues, and Buys is well-equipped to exploit them even more than Cifers did. Plus, Buys did well in the grappling on “Contender Series,” so I’m willing to chalk up the Ruiz debacle to “Conejo’s” bizarrely unique approach. So long as her recent run-in with COVID hasn’t sapped her strength, expect Buys to tear apart Martin on the feet for a dominant victory.
Prediction: Buys via first round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

Main event MMAMANIA - a few more write ups..

Lightweight: Clay Guida vs. Leonardo Santos

Best Win for Guida? Anthony Pettis For Santos? Kevin Lee
Current Streak: Both athletes came up short last time out
X-Factor: Both fighters have been fighting for nearly 20 years!
How these two match up: These two veterans are almost guaranteed to put on a frenetic, entertaining scrap.
At 39 years of age, Guida is still putting on solid performances. In recent years, he’s learned to sit down a bit more on his punches, resulting in more frequent knockdowns. While his wrestling remains his strongest asset, Guida has committed to his calf kicking more as well.
Santos is one of the more interesting “what ifs” of recent years. The Brazilian went undefeated from 2013 to 2020, picking up some big wins in the process on the strength of his jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to fight all that often, and the 41 year old’s winning streak was violently snapped last time out.
Though Guida is the man with 34 more professional fights on his record, Santos is the one that seems to be slowing down as of late. He’s fatiguing earlier and earlier in bouts, whereas Guida just took a top prospect in Mark Madsen to the brink in a 15-minute war.
The risk of Santos landing big early on is definitely there, but otherwise, “The Carpenter” seems primed to grind out another hard-fought win via takedowns and volume punching.
Prediction: Guida via decision
Related
Aldo Eyes Dillashaw On Yan-Sterling Undercard

---

Lightweight: Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill

Best Win for Crute? Paul Craig For Hill? Ovince Saint Preux
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: These two Light Heavyweights are both offense-first fighters
How these two match up: This should be a whole lot of fun, and a finish on either side seems likely.
At 25 years of age, Crute is one of Light Heavyweight’s best young talents. The jiu-jitsu black belt has already squared off with some really tough opposition, and he’s very well-rounded for his age and experience. Outside of Robert Whittaker, he’s likely Australia’s best shot at a UFC champion.
Hill has proven himself quite talented in a short time too. “Sweet Dreams” is a striker first and foremost, having finished half of his victories by knockout. Long and rangy for the division, Hill looks to pepper his foes with straights before really committing to his power shots.
I don’t want to write off Hill completely. He’s got a solid edge in range, and he puts together smart combinations nicely. At the same time, Crute is just a much more varied threat. He absolutely has the kickboxing and power to compete with Hill, but his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are far ahead.
Crute might not need to wrestle at all to win this fight. That’s a problem in itself for Hill, who risks giving up his hips if he gets too comfortable slugging. Most likely, Crute exchanges with Hill just enough to time a takedown, at which point “The Brute” is in control.
Prediction: Crute via submission
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 44 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 44 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

---

Middleweight: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis

Best Win for Allen? Kevin Holland For Curtis? Phil Hawes
Current Streak: Allen has won two in a row, while Curtis recently won his UFC debut to extend his win streak to six
X-Factor: Curtis is a career Welterweight.
How these two match up: One way or another, this is going to be violent.
Allen is a damn good Middleweight. The “Contenders Series” product has won five of six inside the Octagon, relying mostly on his excellent grappling to pick up finishes. However, under the tutelage of Henri Hooft, Allen is developing into a pretty nasty kickboxer too! It certainly helps that “All In” is tough as nails.
Curtis was the feel good story of last month! After years and years of hard fights for various promotions around the world, “Action Man” took a risky, short-notice fight to gain a position on the roster ... and he won! Curtis is a slick kickboxer with real knockout power, but he’s also fought at 170 pounds more often than not.
This feels like a fight where Curtis has to win via knockout, otherwise he’s outmatched. The same could be said about the Hawes match up, but Allen is a level above in terms of durability and experience compared to “Megatron.” Curtis hopefully earned himself a nice paycheck and some credit from the big bosses for accepting another short-notice replacement at 185 pounds, but it’s hard to see that one going well for him.
At some point, Allen decides to shoot, finds top position, and starts dropping hammers.
Prediction: Allen via submission

[Sanity Check]

bellator 272, dec 3rd

[Hugo de Naranja]

Busy today so no picks or bets. Will be back with those for next week. Is anyone else going to the event?

[JIBBBY]

Jake Mathews fight called off. I was really looking forward to seeing that fight also.

[hankcream]

[QUOTE=JIBBBY;30674837]Jake Mathews fight called off. I was really looking forward to seeing that fight also. [/QUOTE

That sucks

[Snowball]

small bets parlayed with the Bills MNF

Gruetzemacher +110
Todorovic -170
Gall +200
Santos -210

[kcchiefs]

Feels like most Favorites will hit. Liking Aldo for main though.

[JIBBBY]

Going with Aldo also.

[hankcream]

5.5 units Kape -275
1 unit Martin/ Buys-Vilsmas under 2.5 +225
2 units Pulles -108
1 unit Hill + 154
1 unit Pitolo + 148
.5 unit Curtis +280
1 unit Riddle -105

[Thrilla]

Martin +160

[Thrilla]

Going with Aldo also.

Who has the stamina edge here? 5 rounder

[hankcream]

DC a little biased, I agree with the judges Knight was the dominant fighter

[Merlin21]

I see Weeks winning the fight in 2 rounds but live has Weeks as +225.... What am I missing? Takedowns, good strikes

[Merlin21]

Well.... Guess I did miss it

[Thrilla]

Rigged shit sport

[Thrilla]

Gall +210

[Merlin21]

5.5 units Kape -275
1 unit Martin/ Buys-Vilsmas under 2.5 +225
2 units Pulles -108
1 unit Hill + 154
1 unit Pitolo + 148
.5 unit Curtis +280
1 unit Riddle -105

Nice hit!

[JIBBBY]

Gall +210

Going with Mickey Gall also. He has evolved in the sport. Hard to bet against him now as he climbs the UFC latter.

[JIBBBY]

Who has the stamina edge here? 5 rounder

IDK? Aldo I think has more fire power. Looking for him to finish and not go 5 rounds.

[hankcream]

Who has the stamina edge here? 5 rounder

I’d have to say Font, Aldo didn’t have much after the 3rd twice against Max & against Yan

[Thrilla]

Going with Mickey Gall also. He has evolved in the sport. Hard to bet against him now as he climbs the UFC latter.

He's pathetic..Overextending with jabs. Should just land a fukking body kick to the ribs. It's right there.

Can't shoot Morono's waist too low to the ground.

[Merlin21]

86% of his wins by sub.... Stands up and trades punches the whole fight 😐

[JIBBBY]

Mickey you SOB!! Appears you need to evolve more. Came up a little short.

[Thrilla]

Mickey you SOB!! Appears you need to evolve more. Came up a little short.

Still not a bad bet after the fact. Morono didn't do too much to justify the odds. They fight tomorrow.. I'm must bet Gall again, the odds will be better.

[Thrilla]

Action Man the greatest hero of them all!

[hankcream]

Wow Curtis is no joke.
..5 unit Santo ITD + 220