1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate (November 20, 2021)


    ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
    Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate
    Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady
    Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya
    Joanne Calderwood vs. Taila Santos
    Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez

    ESPN+ 3:00 pm ET
    Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz
    Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy
    Loopy Godinez vs. Loma Lookboonmee
    Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam
    Cody Durden vs. Aori Qileng
    Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Sean Soriano
    Sam Hughes vs. Luana Pinheiro


    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 11-17-21 at 12:32 AM.
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    Nomination(s):
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  2. #2
    Thor4140
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    Let’s be kind to my two boys here. I see nothing Chiesa has that will stop Brady. I also see the Russian-an Brady on a collision course an if that Russian rag dolls Brady it will be the first time anyone accomplishes that. I see Brady shutting Chiesa down. As for Sabatini Lutz. I just can’t get a read. Lutz is solid. Pat has more tools. Lutz looks strong as an ox and has a great low kick like Justin’s who has the best. I don’t see anyone getting hurt by it tho. Lutz has solid boxing but is hittable. He has a great left hook. I don’t like it that Pat has a habit of looping his punches. I see this going three. This looks like a great fight. As for the headliner I am not a fan of Tate’s style. Most likely won’t even watch it.
    Last edited by Thor4140; 11-15-21 at 08:14 PM.
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  3. #3
    Sanity Check
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    Loma Lookboonmee.


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  4. #4
    Thor4140
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    Sabatini weighing 149 yesterday. Pat haas lost three fights 2 against guys who missed weight and one of the guys couldn’t sniff 145 again. The other was a home town split decision against a scummy opponent who Pat said was slimy as fuk. The third lost was legitimate loss as his arm got dislocated even tho he didn’t tap an got his arm free. His old man is worried Tucker comes in heavy. Pat feels disrespected by a few members of the press. There is no comparison on who has fought the better competition. I don’t know if you guys remember but Pat said he wasn’t hurt in his last fight but was confused. I’ll touch more on that later

  5. #5
    Thrilla
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    Michael Chiesa Blames 'Mental Lapse' for Last UFC Loss - The MMA Hour

    Michael Chiesa discusses his last UFC outing against Vicente Luque, his upcoming fight against Sean Brady at UFC Vegas 43, his beard, his commercial with Justin Gaethje, and more on The MMA Hour on Wednesday.



  6. #6
    Brandt Moat
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    Want to bet Sabatini, just worried about his lack of defense when it comes to his stand up. He won't be confused if Lutz hits him. He will wonder why he is in his locker room. Is he capable of getting it to the ground? I hope man! Love the kid and will be putting heart money on him. Going to lay it on Brady bigger if Sabs wins. Good Luck

  7. #7
    Brandt Moat
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    He should have a better tank if it goes late. yea?

  8. #8
    Brandt Moat
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    Pittsburgh Rivers casino had it earlier in week at Sabitini -182. Now it is -150. I personally like the odds going down. It gives me more reason to bet him.

  9. #9
    Brandt Moat
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    I may have wrote that in wrong. Seems unlikely.

  10. #10
    JIBBBY
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    Prelims MMAMANIA -




    155 lbs.: Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

    Things went from bad to worse for Terrance McKinney (11-3) when, just one fight after eating a flying knee from Sean Woodson on “Contender Series,” he fell victim to a 57-second triangle choke from Darrick Minner. “T. Wrecks” returned to form with three knockouts in a combined 1:45, then needed just seven seconds to wipe out Matt Frevola in the Octagon on an eight-day turnaround.
    All 11 of his stoppage wins have come in the first round, nine of them in less than two minutes.
    Fares Ziam (12-3) saw his five-fight win streak come to an end in his UFC debut, a unanimous decision loss to Don Madge. Subsequent efforts proved more fruitful, as he claimed decisions of his own over Jamie Mullarkey and Luigi Vendramini.
    “Smile Killer” stands three inches taller than McKinney and sports a one-inch reach advantage.
    Despite that incredible finish in his UFC debut, McKinney is still more a twitchy bundle of potential than a completed product. Luckily, Ziam figures to be fairly accommodating. The Frenchman just has zero urgency, landing just over two significant strikes per minute, and determined opponents have managed to bully him into the fence for takedowns on multiple occasions. McKinney’s a stronger wrestler than Ziam’s last three foes and figures to find plenty of success following that blueprint.
    There’s a lot that can go wrong, of course. Leaning on his wild stand up could get McKinney sparked, and if his gas tank gives out, Ziam could very easily take over late. Still, I like McKinney to muscle his way inside, drag Ziam to the mat, and dominate for an early finish.
    Prediction: McKinney via first round submission
    Related
    Up Next! Vieira Battles Tate In Las Vegas!

    125 lbs.: Cody Durden vs. Aoriqileng

    A 4-2 professional start gave way to an undefeated (7-0) run for Cody Durden (11-3-1), who answered the call to face Chris Gutierrez on late notice in Aug. 2021. He wound up settling for a draw, then succumbed to a flying triangle from Jimmy Flick four months later.
    He’s knocked out and submitted five professional foes apiece.
    Aoriqileng (18-8) punched his ticket to the Octagon with six consecutive victories, five of them inside the distance. He couldn’t quite overcome Jeff Molina in his promotional debut, but did walk away with a “Fight of the Night” bonus for his trouble.
    He’ll enjoy a two-inch reach advantage.
    I really think Durden is better than that 0-1-1 UFC record would suggest. He’s the only blemish in Gutierrez’s last six fights and was thoroughly in control of the Flick fight before Flick caught him. He remains an excellent wrestler and solid striker, giving him the tools to beat the powerful, but straightforward, Aoriqileng.
    Durden’s likely the best wrestler Aoriqileng has ever faced, and those nasty low kicks of his should allow him to slow down Aoriqileng’s relentless offense. Odds are he won’t need them, as he’ll snag an early takedown, move to the back, and finish it from there.
    Prediction: Durden via first round submission
    Related
    Miesha Tate Fight And COVID Update

    145 lbs.: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Sean Soriano

    A 7-1 run — marred only by a loss to current Lightweight standout Rongzhu — earned Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (19-7) a 2021 Octagon debut. It didn’t quite work out for him, as Joshua Colubao out-classed him on the feet en route to a unanimous decision win.
    He stands one inch shorter than Sean Soriano (14-7) and surrenders two inches of reach.
    An undefeated (8-0) professional start gave way to a 1-5 skid for Soriano, including three losses in the Octagon. He returned to the world’s largest fight promotion on short notice in May 2021, starting strong but ultimately tapping to a d’arce choke from Christos Giagos.
    His professional finishes are split 7/4 between knockouts and submissions.
    Grappling has always been Soriano’s bugbear. It’s accounted for literally all of his professional defeats, and while he showed some much-improved takedown defense against the much larger Giagos, he still surrendered his fifth professional submission loss. While that’s ostensibly bad news against a dedicated wrestler like Nuerdanbieke, it’s offset by the fact that Nuerdanbieke has nothing to offer outside of his takedowns.
    Soriano is leagues above Nuerdanbieke on the feet, and with so little to worry about outside of Nuerdanbieke’s obvious Plan A, he should have plenty of success keeping it there. In the end, he takes apart Nuerdanbieke for a late finish.
    Prediction: Soriano via third round technical knockout
    Related
    Nunes Is ‘100 Percent’ The Female GOAT, Says Tate

    115 lbs.: Luana Pinheiro vs. Sam Hughes

    Luana Pinheiro (9-1) rode a streak of five consecutive first-round finishes into “Contender Series,” where she made it six with a brutal knockout of Stephanie Frausto. The streak stayed intact in her UFC debut, albeit under odd circumstances, as she ate a fight-ending illegal upkick from Randa Markos.
    She’s submitted seven professional opponents and knocked out another two.
    Sam Hughes (5-3) earned a shot at LFA gold in her fifth professional fight, only to succumb to a comeback submission from Vanessa Demopoulos. Though she got back on track by choking out Danielle Hindley, she’s 0-2 in the Octagon after falling to Tecia Torres and Loma Lookboonmee.
    “Sampage” steps in for Jessica Penne on 10 days’ notice.
    Honestly, I respect the hell out of Hughes. That’s because she stepped up on short notice against one of the division’s best veterans in Torres, gave a solid account of herself against a lethal striker in Lookboonmee, and now takes on a top-notch prospect. Unfortunately, I don’t see her success matching her courage. Lookboonmee — an undersized striking specialist — consistently took her to the ground, meaning a veteran judoka like Pinheiro should be able to rag doll her.
    Hughes is definitely the sharper striker of the two, admittedly, and Pinheiro’s power isn’t enough of an equalizer to keep her from getting pieced up on the feet. So long as Pinheiro fights to her strengths, though, expect her to drag Hughes to the canvas and choke her out from there.
    Prediction: Pinheiro via first round submission



    145 lbs.: Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz

    He had to survive a dicey third round, but Pat Sabatini (15-3) claimed victory in his April 2021 UFC debut by beating Tristan Connelly in Jacksonville. Then came Jamall Emmers, whom Sabatini put away with a gnarly heel hook less than two minutes into the first round.
    That win marked his eleventh submission win and twelfth finish overall.
    Though he failed to find a finish in either of his “Contender Series” appearances, Tucker Lutz (12-1) impressed Dana White enough to earn a contract. He made the most of it by turning aside a late surge from Kevin Aguilar in his debut to make it 12 consecutive wins.
    He’ll have a two-inch reach advantage.
    Sabatini is unquestionably one of the best ground artists outside the Featherweight Top 10, and he’s shown the full breadth of his abilities in the Octagon. That said, I don’t like his chances here. Lutz is the sharper striker of the two and figures to be a sufficiently stout wrestler to dictate where the fight takes place.
    I said the same things about Emmers before Sabatini damn-near tore his leg off, but Emmers had that fight won before diving into Sabatini’s wheelhouse unprompted. Lutz is far less prone to self-destruction; he fought Aguilar, a very dangerous customer, just about perfectly. Plus, while Lutz did fade late in that fight, Sabatini had his own struggles against Connelly in the deep waters. Lutz’s clean boxing carries him to a comfortable sprawl-and-brawl win.
    Prediction: Lutz via unanimous decision
    Related
    Up Next! Vieira Battles Tate In Las Vegas!

    155 lbs.: Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy

    Rafa Garcia (12-2) saw his unbeaten record come to an end in his UFC debut, a late-notice clash with Nasrat Haqparast. He looked poised to finish Chris Gruetzemacher in his sophomore effort, but faded down the stretch en route to a unanimous decision defeat.
    “Gifted” has scored seven professional victories by submission.
    Following an undefeated (4-0) amateur career, Natan Levy (6-0) spent the first five fights of his pro career under the LFA banner before stepping up on short notice to meet Shaheen Santana on “Contender Series.” While he secured a contract with a late arm triangle, injury has kept him out of the cage for little more than one year.
    He’ll enjoy two inches of height and four inches of reach on Garcia.
    Before the Gruetzemacher debacle, I’d have picked Garcia in a heartbeat. He’s the more experienced fighter, the naturally larger one, and has shown the gas tank to fight five hard rounds. The way he imploded against Gruetzemacher makes me much more hesitant, though I’m still leaning “Gifted’s” way. Levy simply doesn’t respond well to pressure and has a far less attrition-based style than “Gritz,” which should allow Garcia to grind him down.
    As bad as Garcia looked last time out, he’s still a natural Lightweight fighting a career Featherweight with ostensibly inferior wrestling. In short, he bullies Levy on the feet and racks up top control to finally enter UFC’s win column.
    Prediction: Garcia via unanimous decision
    Related
    Miesha Tate Fight And COVID Update

    115 lbs.: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Lupita Godinez

    After claiming her second victory under the Invicta banner, Loma Lookboonmee (6-2) made the move to the Octagon, where she split a pair of bouts with Aleksandra Albu and Angela Hill. She’s since won two straight, most recently defeating Sam Hughes in May 2021.
    She’ll have a rare one-inch reach advantage over Godinez.
    Lupita Godinez (5-3) rebounded from a debut loss to Jessica Penne by running over Silvana Gomez Juarez, locking up her first pro submission late in the first round. She then stepped up in weight on a one-week turnaround to face Luana Carolina, who survived a rough first round to outstrike Godinez down the stretch.
    “Loopy” steps in for Cheyanne Buys on less than two weeks’ notice.
    I was extremely high on Godinez going into her UFC debut, and she hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations. Incredibly poor game-planning doomed her against Penne, and she looked completely ineffectual against Carolina when her takedowns stopped working. I just don’t trust her to execute against Lookboonmee, who figures to outwork her by a huge margin on the feet.
    Lookboonmee’s not impossible to take down, so Godinez is definitely capable of winning this if she takes the proper approach. Her inability to consistently do so thus far in her career, however, means I can’t pick her. In the end, Lookboonmee’s volume and strong clinch work should carry her to victory.
    Prediction: Lookboonmee via unanimous decision
    Points Awarded:

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  11. #11
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    Want to bet Sabatini, just worried about his lack of defense when it comes to his stand up. He won't be confused if Lutz hits him. He will wonder why he is in his locker room. Is he capable of getting it to the ground? I hope man! Love the kid and will be putting heart money on him. Going to lay it on Brady bigger if Sabs wins. Good Luck
    If u look at his last fight he says he didn’t get hit but he had terrible positioning with his feet an that is why he was confused. I watched it over an over and can’t tell if that uppercut landed. I tend to believe him because it would have taken his head off. His defense is just fine. I never once saw him staggered. He has a chip on his shoulder. I think it is going to be a great fight. Let the line keep dipping.

  12. #12
    Thor4140
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    For what it is worth Brady has freak strength. I know Chiesa has been in with wrestlers but to me this will be the best and strongest one he ever face. I hear Brady is fully recovered from his infection which caused him to be hospitalize. that is what i hear but who knows after a tough long bout. We all know Chiesa has a strong sub game i just don’t see it having any effect with Brady. I don’t like it that Brady and Pat flew out Wed morning to Vegas.
    Last edited by Thor4140; 11-18-21 at 09:59 PM.

  13. #13
    Brandt Moat
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    Is flying out Wed. out of the norm? Thanks for the insight.

  14. #14
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Loma Lookboonmee.



    cool name!

  15. #15
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    Is flying out Wed. out of the norm? Thanks for the insight.

    i would get out there a little earlier. just my opinion. why rush around but i am sure cost factors into a decision like this.

  16. #16
    Thor4140
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    I thought in Pats previous fight he was looping his punches but i was wrong. Lets not forget he almost knocked out Tristan Connelly in the first round and Connelly is a tough tough guy. Looking at Lutz wins man he beat a lot of terrible fighters.

  17. #17
    Unwritten Law
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    Apex had limited tickets for public going for 500 each, pretty cool that they opened for Joe public, if anyone happens to be in Vegas.

  18. #18
    Brandt Moat
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    I'm getn $50 down on Sabatini by Ko,Tko,DQ for +1000. Lutz gets hit a lot stat wise per minute. So, when he is standing he is getting cracked a bit more then normal. Seems like a good flyer bet. Sab may have stayed away from Vegas due to distractions and mindset. Go into town kick some a s s head home. Let's Go Kid !
    Last edited by Brandt Moat; 11-19-21 at 05:44 PM.

  19. #19
    hankcream
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    I’m smelling a dog type fight card
    1 unit Loma +143
    1 unit Sabatini -110
    .5 unit Davey Grant +235
    2 units Chiesa +135
    1 unit Tate -110
    175 pts

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  20. #20
    frankieunits2685
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    McKinney/Ziam is OFF. Someone in McKinneys corner tested positive for covid.

  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    UFC on ESPN+ 56: Vieira vs. Tate Picks:
    Luana Pinheiro Round 1 TKO (Punches)
    Sean Soriano Round 2 TKO (Punches)
    Cody Durden Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
    Lupita Godinez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
    Natan Levy Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
    Pat Sabatini Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
    Adrian Yanez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
    Rani Yahya Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
    Taila Santos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
    Sean Brady Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
    Ketlen Vieira Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Bets:
    Levy (-106) 0.5u to win 0.47u
    Levy Decision (+260) 0.1u

    Brady (-162) 0.62u to win 0.38u
    Brady+Chiesa Ends in Submission (+150) 0.1u
    Brady Submission (+300) 0.1u
    Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 11-20-21 at 03:02 PM.

  23. #23
    dawg58kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Lupita Godinez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
    i put my biggest bet of the year on lookboome dawg , do u like the pad thai?

  24. #24
    dawg58kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Lupita Godinez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
    Quote Originally Posted by dawg58kahn View Post
    i put my biggest bet of the year on lookboome dawg , do u like the pad thai?
    i posted a big bet alert as well to alert everyone

  25. #25
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawg58kahn View Post
    i put my biggest bet of the year on lookboome dawg , do u like the pad thai?
    No bet on me for that one so hopefully you win

  26. #26
    Demonata
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    I hope everyone hits there bets. I'm just watching probably no bets.

  27. #27
    Merlin21
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    Loma was a bad bet, oof... Been thrown around like a rag doll and in the 3rd round still doesn't try to defend the take down

  28. #28
    dawg58kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merlin21 View Post
    Loma was a bad bet, oof... Been thrown around like a rag doll and in the 3rd round still doesn't try to defend the take down
    fuking lady boy pad thai what a fuking whore go fuk urself lomo

  29. #29
    unitedlad
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Bets:
    Levy (-106) 0.5u to win 0.47u
    Levy Decision (+260) 0.1u

    Brady (-162) 0.62u to win 0.38u
    Brady+Chiesa Ends in Submission (+150) 0.1u
    Brady Submission (+300) 0.1u
    Woof Levy really struggled with that TDD in the 3rd. Both are pretty bad fighters tbh, they canít throw at all.

  30. #30
    Thor4140
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    Pat said he thought Lutz looked real stressed when they faced off. take it for what it is worth. Patty is a real nice kid so there is nothing sinister about what he said. I think we are gonna see Pats hands tonight with maybe some high kicks. this is gonna be a good one.

  31. #31
    Merlin21
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawg58kahn View Post
    fuking lady boy pad thai what a fuking whore go fuk urself lomo
    I couldn't put it as elegantly as you dawg but I agree!

  32. #32
    unitedlad
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawg58kahn View Post
    fuking lady boy pad thai what a fuking whore go fuk urself lomo
    Thatís it. Let it all out

  33. #33
    unitedlad
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    I'm getn $50 down on Sabatini by Ko,Tko,DQ for +1000. Lutz gets hit a lot stat wise per minute. So, when he is standing he is getting cracked a bit more then normal. Seems like a good flyer bet. Sab may have stayed away from Vegas due to distractions and mindset. Go into town kick some a s s head home. Let's Go Kid !
    Regardless of how this plays out, this was a great bet. Guaranteed take downs and ground control always has a decent chance of a TKO

  34. #34
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    Pat said he thought Lutz looked real stressed when they faced off. take it for what it is worth. Patty is a real nice kid so there is nothing sinister about what he said. I think we are gonna see Pats hands tonight with maybe some high kicks. this is gonna be a good one.
    Sabatini is a helluva wrestler, his takedowns were impressive. Was he a state champ in high school or did he wrestle in college?
    175 pts

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  35. #35
    KingHawkins
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    Celebration for the forum.
    Biggest bet in months for me, although I foolishly thought -148 was a gift and got the bulk of my action down then. Still a very nice win. Domination. Future legend of Pennsylvania MMA , where he can join Paul Felder and Tim Boetsch in the Hall of Fame.

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