[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane (for interim heavyweight title)
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque
Angela Hill vs. Tecia Torres
Casey Kenney vs. Song Yadong

ESPN2 8:00 pm ET
Rafael Fiziev vs. Bobby Green
Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez
Ed Herman vs. Alonzo Menifield
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Anderson Dos Santos vs. Miles Johns
Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne
Melissa Gatto vs. Victoria Leonardo
Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons

[povis]

I'am bit surprised that Rafael Fiziev is a big favorite yes he's great striker but still very untested when it comes to ground game.

[povis]

I like Casey Kenney, Ciryl Gane by dec. or late finish

[hankcream]

Chiesa vs Luque should be interesting, leaning Chiesa @ + money.

[magpie878]

Based on the fighters' history, if Luque loses, it'll be by decision (July 2013 was last loss by a finish and has been subbed but never KO'd)... and if Chiesa loses, it'll be by stoppage (never lost by decision).

Which means, by UFC logic, that Luque will lose by KO! Or Chiesa will lose by decision!

[Demonata]

Based on the fighters' history, if Luque loses, it'll be by decision (July 2013 was last loss by a finish and has been subbed but never KO'd)... and if Chiesa loses, it'll be by stoppage (never lost by decision).

Which means, by UFC logic, that Luque will lose by KO! Or Chiesa will lose by decision!

Scary trusting judges at all now.

[Brandt Moat]

Yes sir.

Scary trusting judges at all now.

[povis]

Texas judges is even worse

[Thrilla]

[magpie878]

The world seems to be on Chiesa.... a huge public backing always scares me.

[Demonata]

Maybe more than 3 favorites will win on this fight card?

[PaperTrail07]

Ed Herman always finds a way to take my $ lol ..jesus....may happen again

The world seems to be on Chiesa.... a huge public backing always scares me.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Ed Herman always finds a way to take my $ lol ..jesus....may happen again

Short Fuse

[hankcream]

Ed Herman always finds a way to take my $ lol ..jesus....may happen again

f
If Menifield keeps his punches above Herman’s bellybutton he should win inside the distance, if Menifield stupid and hits anywhere near the belt Herman will probably grab his balls & claim low blow and then he’ll have a chance

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -




125 lbs.: Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne

Angola’s Manel Kape (15-6) punched his ticket to the Octagon with three consecutive knockouts under the Rizin banner, including an upset of Kai Asakura to claim the promotion’s Bantamweight title. He’s yet to find similar success in UFC, dropping narrow decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau in his first two appearances.
His 14 professional finishes include nine via (technical) knockout.
Ode Osbourne (9-3) earned both his fourth consecutive first-round finish and a UFC contract by tapping Armando Villareal on “Contender Series,” only to suffer a submission loss to Brian Kelleher in his Octagon debut. A year-long layoff followed, after which “The Jamaican Sensation” needed just 26 seconds to smash Jerome Rivera and enter UFC’s win column.
He’ll have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Kape.
I genuinely think both Kape and Osbourne have considerable potential, and the clash of styles should make for an excellent high-speed slugfest. As good as Osbourne is, however, this comes down to Kape’s willingness to let his hands go. I thought he lost to Pantoja and beat Nicolau, but he was overly passive in both fights and could have seemingly secured easy decisions by simply letting his hands go.
If he’s learned his lesson, he wins this comfortably. For all his promise, Osbourne remains unproven against top-tier opposition, while Kape’s fought killer after killer during his career and held his own against two of UFC’s best Flyweights. Kape’s experience carries him to victory in a fast-paced stand up war.
Prediction: Kape via second round technical knockout
Related
Video: Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 265!

---

135 lbs.: Miles Johns vs. Anderson dos Santos

A rescheduled fight from last month, repackaged for your convenience below ...
Seven months after beating current top prospect Adrian Yanez for the LFA Bantamweight belt, Miles Johns (11-1) used a steady diet of takedowns to beat Richie Santiago on “Contender Series” and earn himself a UFC contract. He’s now 2-1 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, including a bonus-winning knockout of Kevin Natividad in his most recent effort.
“Chapo” is the taller man by two inches, though he gives up that same amount of reach.
The three-fight win streak for Anderson dos Santos (21-8) came to an end upon his Octagon arrival, dropping a decision to Nad Narimani on a two-week turnaround and subsequently fell short against Andre Ewell. He finally made it into the UFC win column 17 months later, choking out the favored Martin Day in Nov. 2020.
“Berinja” has ended 17 professional fights inside the distance, 12 of them by submission.
While I won’t pretend that Johns has wowed me in his three-fight UFC tenure, this definitely looks winnable. Dos Santos’ upright, hook-heavy striking attack leaves him vulnerable to the same piston jab Johns used to neutralize Natividad, and “Chapo’s” rock-solid wrestling ensures that he’ll set the terms of any and all ground engagements.
Dos Santos’ impressive ground attack does pose a legitimate threat, but the aforementioned wrestling discrepancy makes it unlikely that he’ll get a chance to use it. So long as Johns doesn’t play the same passive game that got him stopped by Bautista, he potshots his way to a wide decision win.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
Related
Gane: Everyone Knows ‘Black Beast’ Is ‘Not Well-Rounded’

---

125 lbs.: Victoria Leonardo vs. Melissa Gatto

Despite entering “Contender Series” as a decent-sized underdog against striking standout Chelsea Hackett, Victoria Leonardo (9-3) used an aggressive grappling attack to pound out the Aussie and claim a UFC contract. The next prospect proved a tougher out, as Manon Fiorot stopped her standing in both women’s UFC debut.
“Fury” has scored four professional wins by submission.
After hitting a 2-0-2 stretch, Melissa Gatto (6-0-2) signed on to face future UFC standout Karol Rosa in Cris Cyborg’s promotion. While she surrendered a couple of takedowns in the early going, she wrapped up a triangle kimura in transition to claim a first-round submission victory.
This will be her first fight in nearly three years after withdrawing from three scheduled Octagon debuts.
Melissa Gatto is 25 years old and hasn’t fought since 2018; therefore, odds are that her style advanced into something totally unrecognizable during her time away. For her sake, that better be the case, as Leonardo handily beats the last incarnation of Gatto to enter the cage. Though a capable submission artist, 2018’s Gatto has no answer for Leonardo’s wrestling and seems out-gunned on the feet as well.
I’ve seen more than one young up-and-comer return from a long layoff as a completely new fighter, including other Brazilians in Amanda Lemos and Amanda Ribas. Since I know nothing about what improvements Gatto’s made, however, I can only work with what I’ve seen. In short, Leonardo grinds out a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Leonardo via unanimous decision
Related
Nunes Releases Statement On UFC 265 Withdrawal: ‘Unfortunately S—t Happens’

---

135 lbs.: Jamey Simmons vs. Johnny Munoz Jr.

A rescheduled tussle from April; here’s the breakdown from back then with some slight tweaks ...
Jamey Simmons (7-3) — who’d won five of six coming in — made a three-week turnaround to face Giga Chikadze on short notice in Nov. 2020. Though bold, the move failed to pay off, as Chikadze put him away with a head kick and ground-and-pound late in the first round (watch highlights).
He’s the shorter man by three inches.
After nearly a year on the sidelines, Johnny Munoz Jr. (10-1) stepped up to fight Nate Maness on short notice in Aug. 2020. Though he managed to dominate the opening round on the mat, he ultimately ran out of steam, allowing Maness to turn the tables and walk away with the decision.
His professional finishes are split 6/2 between submissions and (technical) knockouts.
Simmons’ first UFC fight pitted him against a significantly larger and exponentially more seasoned striker. His second pits him against a world-class submission artist with some wrestling chops of his own.
Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail.
To Simmons’ credit, he’s fighting someone closer to his size this time and has a shot if Munoz’s cardio issues flair up again. Unfortunately for him, it’s unlikely this even lasts long enough for that to come up. In the end, Munoz wraps up his neck in the opening round.
Prediction: Munoz via first round submission



155 lbs.: Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev

Bobby Green (27-11-1) entered 2020 in the midst of a major 1-5-1 slump, only to revive his UFC career with three consecutive victories in the span of three months. The good fortune wasn’t to last, dropping a controversial decision to Thiago Moises and seeing a Feb. 2021 clash with Jim Miller evaporate after Green collapsed during weigh-ins.
He stands two inches taller than “Ataman,” though he’ll give up a half-inch of reach.
Rafael Fiziev (9-1) rebounded from his UFC debut loss to Magomed Mustafaev with back-to-back decision wins over Alex White and Marc Diakiese, the latter of which earned “Fight of the Night.” He didn’t need the judges against Renato Moicano, however, stopping the Brazilian with a bonus-winning left hook late in the first round.
Five of his six professional knockout wins have come in the first round.
While the odds at time of writing have Green pegged as a considerable underdog, he definitely has the tools to test the fast-rising Kyrgyzstani, namely durability, wrestling and volume. Only Dustin Poirier has managed to put Green down with strikes in the last decade, meaning he’ll have 15 minutes to try and out-work Fiziev with his mixed offense.
There’s a difference between testing someone and actually beating them, of course. Neither Diakiese nor Moicano could put Fiziev on the mat and Green’s slightly superior output isn’t sufficient to overcome Fiziev’s clear technical edge. He’ll have to work for it, but Fiziev’s kickboxing and takedown defense figure to win him the day.
Prediction: Fiziev via unanimous decision
Related
Video: Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 265!

---

135 lbs.: Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez

Four months after suffering a comeback submission loss to Domingo Pilarte on “Contender Series,” Vince Morales (9-5) found his way to the Octagon, dropping a decision to Song Yadong before upsetting Aiemann Zahabi. That victory failed to kickstart his Octagon run, and “Vandetta” now finds himself in the midst of a two-fight skid.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
Though initially known for his stand up prowess, the grappling of Drako Rodriguez (7-2) carried the day on “Contender Series,” where he choked out Mana Martinez midway through the first round. His subsequent UFC debut pitted him against Aiemann Zahabi, who melted him with a counter right to snap a three-fight win streak.
“The Great Drakolini’” has submitted four professional foes and knocked out two others.
Rodriguez has youth, superior submission skills and a clear roadmap to victory after both of Morales’ most recent foes demonstrated his allergy to low kicks. Morales has a right hand, and I promise you it’s a far closer fight than that reductive analysis would suggest. “Vandetta” legitimately has enough power to undo all of Rodriguez’s good work if he gets the same opportunities Zahabi did, so if that defensive lapse was a chronic habit of Rodriguez’s and not a one-time thing, things could go south for him in a hurry.
The oddsmakers have this one almost dead-even and I’m inclined to agree. I’ve flip-flopped a few times and agonized over this longer than I probably should have, but my gut says Rodriguez. Questionable thought it may be to pick a guy who just got destroyed by a right hand over a guy with a bomb of a right hand, Rodriguez just seems to have more weapons in his arsenal and the means to totally defuse Morales’ with low kicks. While it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Morales just lamp him in the first round, I like Rodriguez to vary up the attack and take a competitive decision.
Prediction: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
Related
Gane: Everyone Knows ‘Black Beast’ Is ‘Not Well-Rounded’

---

205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman

Though it took him two tries to secure a contract on “Contender Series,” Alonzo Menifield (10-2) proved he belonged in the Octagon by starching Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig. Consecutive defeats followed, but he got back on track in March 2021, tapping Fabio Cherant in 71 seconds.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, eight of them in the first round.
Now 40 years old and more than 15 years into his UFC career, Ed Herman (25-14) now finds himself in the midst of his longest win streak since 2012. He was last seen surviving some heavy knees and elbows to submit Mike Rodriguez in Sept. 2020.
“Short Fuse” is the taller man by one inch, but gives up one inch of reach.
At 33 years old, I’m not convinced Menifield has time to fully realize the potential his athleticism grants him. Said athleticism figures to be enough in this match up, however. Even acknowledging Herman’s skill, toughness and veteran guile, he lacks the reach to punish Menifield’s linear striking the way Ovince Saint Preux did or the dynamism that Devin Clark used to great effect.
Herman’s just too slow and weathered at this point to keep up with Menifield on the feet and I don’t trust his takedown skills to carry the day. Unless Menifield obliges him in the clinch — where Herman’s knees and sneaky grappling give him the greatest shot at victory — expect the newly christened “Atomic” to overwhelm him with punches within the first five minutes.
Prediction: Menifield via first round technical knockout
Related
Nunes Releases Statement On UFC 265 Withdrawal: ‘Unfortunately S—t Happens’

---

115 lbs.: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne

Three consecutive UFC wins carried Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6) to a title shot, and though she fell short against both Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha, she retained her contender status with two more victories. She enters the cage this Saturday winless since 2018, however, having dropped four straight.
This marks her first appearance in over 17 months.
Jessica Penne (13-5) went from dropping three straight in the Octagon to sitting out for nearly four years due to United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) and other misfortunes. Undaunted, she returned to action in April 2021 with a split decision over top prospect Lupita Godinez for her first win since 2014.
She has submitted seven professional foes and knocked out two others.
On the one hand, Kowalkiewicz’s four consecutive losses came against very capable fighters like Jessica Andrade, Alexa Grasso and Yan Xiaonan. On the other hand, the way she lost was more than a little worrying; Yan — a notoriously iffy wrestler who got mauled on the mat by Carla Esparza — racked up five takedowns on Kowalkiewicz, which bodes ill against a grappler of this caliber.
While much of Penne’s success against Godinez came about due to “Loopy’s” terrible gameplan, Kowalkiewicz’s decline makes me hesitant to put any faith in the Polish veteran. In the end, Penne leans on a grappling-heavy gameplan to hit takedowns, threaten from back mount and just ruin Kowalkiewicz’s day in general.
Prediction: Penne via unanimous decision

[PaperTrail07]

Agree... Herman is just a tough read....40 years old...should be on the decline...but has the heart of a lion...

f
If Menifield keeps his punches above Herman’s bellybutton he should win inside the distance, if Menifield stupid and hits anywhere near the belt Herman will probably grab his balls & claim low blow and then he’ll have a chance

[hankcream]

Might have to throw a sprinkle on one of these Lewis to win in round props
Rd 1 +1100
Rd 2 +1250
Rd 3 +1600
Rd 4 +2200
Rd 5 +3000

[Brandt Moat]

These are the bets to make. Hope and pray! Leave it out of the judges hands. Rounds 1 & 2 are nice prices. GL

Might have to throw a sprinkle on one of these Lewis to win in round props
Rd 1 +1100
Rd 2 +1250
Rd 3 +1600
Rd 4 +2200
Rd 5 +3000

[JIBBBY]

^^Gotta fade short fuse Herman. Too old now. He's living on borrowed time and just picking up UFC pay checks at this point. He'll get bumped to Bellator if he wants after he loses this fight and probably by KO.

[Thor4140]

I'am bit surprised that Rafael Fiziev is a big favorite yes he's great striker but still very untested when it comes to ground game.

The guys a killer that is why. I just hit him up for two c notes. To me he is must see tv

[Sanity Check]

1 hour TL;DW





LeMartin plays

Kenney -113
Lewis +300

[frankieunits2685]

Should be a fun one tomorrow.

[Thor4140]

Lewis fight will be awful. A guy is going to dance around an most likely make the beast look silly. I couldn’t careless about this fight. The beast is nothing but a pawn and pigeon for Dana dollar. If beast didn’t take this fight we would be seeing Jones an Francis but poor beast has to take anything Dana offers. If the dumb fuk had any brains he would have passed on this fight an took on the winner of Jones and Francis. Parlayed that awful win over Francis into some serious money. Now it looks like he has a great chance to lose to a guy nobody wants to watch fight. Get back in line Beast. And one question why doesn’t anyone go to the body with Lewis? Every time he gets hit in the body he acts like someone shot him.

[JC2008]

Lewis fight will be awful. A guy is going to dance around an most likely make the beast look silly. I couldn’t careless about this fight. The beast is nothing but a pawn and pigeon for Dana dollar. If beast didn’t take this fight we would be seeing Jones an Francis but poor beast has to take anything Dana offers. If the dumb fuk had any brains he would have passed on this fight an took on the winner of Jones and Francis. Parlayed that awful win over Francis into some serious money. Now it looks like he has a great chance to lose to a guy nobody wants to watch fight. Get back in line Beast. And one question why doesn’t anyone go to the body with Lewis? Every time he gets hit in the body he acts like someone shot him.

You mad, bro?

[Thor4140]

You mad, bro?

About what bro

[KingHawkins]

This narrative that everyone seems to be envisioning where Gane hurts and finishes Beast ITD is just not what I see happening. Sure, people can't remember what they had for lunch yesterday, but you'd think they MIGHT remember what it was like when Curtis Blaydes was laying half-dead in the cage making noises like he'd just been shot 9 times (a la 50). Beast sends this (smelly) French hype-train back to the Champs-Elysees via an Air Ambulance

[Hugo de Naranja]

A lot of competitive matchups on this card.

[Brandt Moat]

Frenchies will forever and always leave you penniless when wagering on them. Lewis has a lot less respect for Gane then Francis. He will fight like a raped ape in this one. Close distance and launch some beast shots. I love the odds on Derrick to end it inside 1st or 2nd rd. I changed my mind. I gotta bet these fockin fights. I'm taken Lewis in the 1st or 2nd Rd. and Johns to win.

[frankieunits2685]

Fight day is upon us.

[frankieunits2685]

Frenchies will forever and always leave you penniless when wagering on them. Lewis has a lot less respect for Gane then Francis. He will fight like a raped ape in this one. Close distance and launch some beast shots. I love the odds on Derrick to end it inside 1st or 2nd rd. I changed my mind. I gotta bet these fockin fights. I'm taken Lewis in the 1st or 2nd Rd. and Johns to win.

Care to name a few?

[frankieunits2685]

This narrative that everyone seems to be envisioning where Gane hurts and finishes Beast ITD is just not what I see happening. Sure, people can't remember what they had for lunch yesterday, but you'd think they MIGHT remember what it was like when Curtis Blaydes was laying half-dead in the cage making noises like he'd just been shot 9 times (a la 50). Beast sends this (smelly) French hype-train back to the Champs-Elysees via an Air Ambulance

I believe Gane is much better and smarter than Blaydes. Not to mention Blaydes was beating Lewis until he got caught. I like Gane to win, but you DEFINITELY have to respect Lewis' power, that can put anyone to sleep at anytime. It will be interesting to see how Gane reacts to a fighter who will bite down on the mouthpiece and move forward. Not sure how BlackBeast will hold up outside of round 2/3 if it gets there.

Also worth noting that Lewis is 10-0 in Texas. Anything can happen with that Texas commission.

[PaperTrail07]

agree a RARE one with gane -335 being the biggest fav on the card......advice on this card=avoid parlays GL fellas.....Im torn on a good # of these fights....

A lot of competitive matchups on this card.

[PaperTrail07]

Kenney -120 should be good but will have to trust the judges...
Aldo -115
Osbourne +160

[hankcream]

I’ve lost twice already on this damn Kape character but I put 3.6 units on him early when he was @ -180. Now the idiot misses weight badly. If he loses this one he gone for sure.

[Demonata]

I'm not betting the fights but I'm getting super drunk with the homies tonight. I hope they showing the fights at dave and busters.