1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov (June 26, 2021)



    ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
    Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
    Tanner Boser vs. Ovince Saint Preux
    Danilo Marques vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
    Andre Fili vs. Daniel Pineda
    Nicolas Dalby vs. Tim Means
    Jai Herbert vs. Renato Moicano

    ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
    Raoni Barcelos vs. Timur Valiev
    Michel Prazeres vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
    Marcin Prachnio vs. Ike Villanueva
    Julia Avila vs. Julija Stoliarenko
    Justin Jaynes vs. Charles Rosa
    Damir Hadzovic vs. Yancy Medeiros
    Warlley Alves vs. Jeremiah Wells



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  2. #2
    PaperTrail07
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    Valiev seems like Value at a glance

  3. #3
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Valiev seems like Value at a glance
    Just my opinion but I think Raoni Barcelos is a technical machine similar to Damir Ismagulov, the problem is they are both somewhat boring - just winning by dominant decisions. Barcelos dominated Khabib's cousin or brother Said, but most people forgot about it because it wasn't a spectacular finish I don't think Valiev is in the same league as this guy. I'm hoping it goes under -200 & I' might throw $500 on Barcelos - I think he has a 90% chance of winning the fight.
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  4. #4
    praisebuddha
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Just my opinion but I think Raoni Barcelos is a technical machine similar to Damir Ismagulov, the problem is they are both somewhat boring - just winning by dominant decisions. Barcelos dominated Khabib's cousin or brother Said, but most people forgot about it because it wasn't a spectacular finish I don't think Valiev is in the same league as this guy. I'm hoping it goes under -200 & I' might throw $500 on Barcelos - I think he has a 90% chance of winning the fight.
    If you think Barcelos has a 90% chance of winning this should be an easy max bet for you as the current odds (-225) suggest a 69% chance of winning.
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  5. #5
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by praisebuddha View Post
    If you think Barcelos has a 90% chance of winning this should be an easy max bet for you as the current odds (-225) suggest a 69% chance of winning.
    That's what I think, but I've been wrong too many times- I thought Chandler had a 70% chance of knocking out Olivera and max bet that one
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  6. #6
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Just my opinion but I think Raoni Barcelos is a technical machine similar to Damir Ismagulov, the problem is they are both somewhat boring - just winning by dominant decisions. Barcelos dominated Khabib's cousin or brother Said, but most people forgot about it because it wasn't a spectacular finish I don't think Valiev is in the same league as this guy. I'm hoping it goes under -200 & I' might throw $500 on Barcelos - I think he has a 90% chance of winning the fight.
    I'm pretty sure it's his cousin.
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  7. #7
    PaperTrail07
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    IMO Valiev is top top and that # is too high.....Barcelos is VERY skilled-no doubt about it ....but over 2:1 on a guy like Valiev is crazy IMO.......

  8. #8
    PaperTrail07
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    Marques over Zzechukwu also looks very appealing....simple gameplan at +$.... SHIP IT

  9. #9
    magpie878
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    I hope Volkov smashes Gane. Not putting much on it, but just personal feelings.

  10. #10
    Brandt Moat
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    I am not buying in to the Gane hype. I have been picking the dogs in the last 2 cards with some success. Took the Jew Bear and Moreno. Took Negumereanu against a local fighter Camur. Gane is more hype then talent. Gane might be exposed in this match. GL

  11. #11
    Brandt Moat
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    Any chance Rakhmonov is being rushed. Prazeres is no easy task. His age is a factor. Prazeres has a huge edge in experience. This one intrigues me. Let me know what ya think.

  12. #12
    Unwritten Law
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    Volkov is a live dog here.
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  13. #13
    Brandt Moat
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    Felt the same about the # on the Camur fight last week. Camur is Stipe's team mate. I am from the area. I know Camur is very green. When i seen the +$ with his opponent, I couldn't resist. Love the Dogs getn double paper. GL
    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    IMO Valiev is top top and that # is too high.....Barcelos is VERY skilled-no doubt about it ....but over 2:1 on a guy like Valiev is crazy IMO.......
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  14. #14
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandt Moat View Post
    Any chance Rakhmonov is being rushed. Prazeres is no easy task. His age is a factor. Prazeres has a huge edge in experience. This one intrigues me. Let me know what ya think.
    I think Matt "Terror" Serra and Michel "Tractor" Prazeres are the all time shortest UFC welterweights towering over their competition at 5'6.

    Prazeres opponent is 6'1.

    Prazeres being the 2nd degree BJJ black belt has better grappling cred on paper.

    Prazeres' opponent subbed Alex Oliveira in his last fight, clearly no slouch on the ground.

    Size and weight matter more in contests of wrestling and grappling than they do in contests of kickboxing. For the same reasons a VW bug wouldn't be expected to have many advantages over an 18 wheeler in a tractor pull.

    Prazeres defies the laws of physics in that regard outwrestling and outgrappling many men both bigger and heavier.

    I haven't watched any tape, done any research or looked into the match up. Offhand Prazeres opponent should be the favorite, off him being younger, hungrier, having a size and weight advantage in what could easily turn into a ground war.

  15. #15
    JIBBBY
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    Prelim write ups..




    205 lbs.: Marcin Prachnio vs. Ike Villanueva

    After assembling an eight-fight win streak, Poland’s Marcin Prachnio (14-5) had what you’d call a rough Octagon start, suffering three consecutive first-round knockout losses. He came up big with his back against the wall, however, defeating Khalil Rountree in Jan. 2021 to keep his UFC run alive.
    He stands two inches taller than Ike Villanueva (18-11) at 6’3.”
    “Hurricane” blew into UFC on the heels of four consecutive first-round knockouts and a reign as Fury FC Light Heavyweight Champion. Though he fell short against Chase Sherman and Jordan Wright, he finally entered the Octagon win column by stopping Vinicius Moreira.
    He has scored 15 professional victories by form of knockout.
    Not to diminish their accomplishments, but I don’t put a lot of stock in either man’s recent success. Rountree borked his weight cut and was completely gassed halfway through the second, while Moreira was one of the worst strikers in the modern UFC era. While I have zero faith in either man’s ability to execute, I have to grudgingly lean towards Villanueva.
    While they’ve combined for five knockout losses in the Octagon, Sherman was a Heavyweight and Wright finished him via cut. Prachnio essentially got knocked cold three times and was inches away from a fourth against a spent Rountree. I trust Villanueva to stand firm in a slugfest a lot more than I do Prachnio, so expect him to deck the Pole sometime in the first.
    Prediction: Villanueva via first round technical knockout
    Related
    Up Next! Gane Battles ‘Drago’ In Las Vegas!

    135 lbs.: Julia Avila vs. Julija Stoliarenko

    These two were supposed to fight in March before Julija Stoliarenko (9-4-1) botched her weight cut (details here), so here’s the original write up ...
    Julia Avila (8-2) smashed her way into Bantamweight contention with dominant UFC victories over Pannie Kianzad and Gina Mazany, stopping the latter in just 22 seconds. Then came Sijara Eubanks, who used an aggressive wrestling attack to neutralize Avila and pull off the upset.
    “Raging Panda” has knocked out four professional opponents and submitted one other.
    Stoliarenko returned to the regional circuit after falling to Leah Letson on the TUF 28 Finale, winning four straight before taking a split decision in her Invicta debut. She returned to the Octagon in August 2020, dropping a unanimous decision to contender Yana Kunitskaya.
    All nine of her professional stoppage wins have come by armbar.
    Even if the Eubanks debacle tempered my expectations, I’m still high on Avila, who remains one of the more entertaining and destructive fighters in the division. She should be way too much for Stoliarenko, at least; the Lithuanian is badly outgunned on the feet and lacks the wrestling to drag Avila to the mat, making her submission skills a non-factor.
    To her credit, Stoliarenko is likely durable enough to withstand Avila’s power and her various armbar transitions could play a factor should Avila get overeager and leave herself open to a guard pull. Still, expect “Raging Panda” to overpower her in a standup war, avoiding Stoliarenko’s signature technique in the process.
    Prediction: Avila via unanimous decision
    Related
    Gane vs. Volkov Expected To Headline UFC’s June 26 Event

    145 lbs.: Charles Rosa vs. Justin Jaynes

    Charles Rosa (13-5) has alternated losses and wins since his 2014 Octagon debut against Dennis Siver. “Boston Strong’s” current 2-2 stretch has seen him upset Manny Bermudez and Charles Rosa while falling to Bryce Mitchell and Darrick Minner.
    All but two of his wins have come inside the distance, eight via submission.
    Justin Jaynes (16-7) stepped up on short notice to meet Frank Camacho at UFC APEX, stopping the durable veteran just 41 seconds into the first round. He’s yet to recapture that form and now enters the cage this Saturday having suffered three consecutive stoppage defeats.
    “Guitar Hero” gives up two inches of height and 1.5 inches of reach to Rosa.
    I think it well-established by this point that Rosa can’t handle strong wrestlers. Outside of tapping Bermudez, which was admittedly a hell of an achievement, his jiu-jitsu has struggled to save him off of his back. Luckily for him, Jaynes is usually more interested in taking people’s heads off than taking them to the mat, and Rosa’s brick slab of a chin should prove its value here.
    Rosa holds notable advantages in striking technique and cardio; as long as he can survive the early rush, which his durability suggests he can, he’ll find more and more success as the fight progresses. Plus, he’s coming off a loss, so history says he’s due for a dub. Rosa survives some early trouble to take over the striking as the fight progresses.
    Prediction: Rosa via unanimous decision
    Related
    Gane Accepts Callout From ‘Dangerous’ Lewis

    155 lbs.: Yancy Medeiros vs. Damir Hadzovic

    Wrote this up when they first got the call to fight, so I figured I might as well use it again ...
    A move from Lightweight to Welterweight paid immediate dividends for Yancy Medeiros (15-7), who scored three consecutive finishes and a “Fight of the Night” bonus for his war with Alex Oliveira. He has since struggled to recapture that form, dropping three straight to Donald Cerrone, Gregor Gillespie and Lando Vannata.
    His 12 professional finishes include eight by form of knockout.
    Damir Hadzovic (13-6) put a UFC debut loss to Mairbek Taisumov behind him to win three of his next four, including a bonus-winning comeback knockout of Marcin Held. Later efforts proved less successful, as he dropped a decision to Christos Giagos before tapping to a rear naked choke from Renato Moicano.
    “The Bosnian Bomber” gives up nearly half a foot of reach to Medeiros.
    I’ve been hard on Medeiros in the past, but it’s worth remembering that he’s only lost to very capable fighters in the Octagon. Indeed, he’s still got power and remains tough as nails. Hadzovic doesn’t figure to test his wrestling the way Gillespie did and lacks the technical flair that Cerrone and Vannata used to overwhelm the Hawaiian. He’ll give Medeiros a straight fire fight, which Medeiros presumably still has the tools to win.
    Even if Medeiros never panned out, he’s at least capable of dealing with a mid-tier bruiser like Hadzovic. In the end, expect him to overwhelm the Bosnian down the stretch for either a late finish or unanimous decision.
    Prediction: Medeiros via unanimous decision



    135 lbs.: Raoni Barcelos vs. Timur Valiev

    Assorted misfortunes have held Raoni Barcelos (16-1) to just five fights since the end of 2016, though he’s yet to taste defeat in that span. His last two efforts have seen him out-last rising prospect Said Nurmagomedov and war his way to a “Fight of the Night” decision over Khalid Taha.
    His 10 professional finishes are split 8/2 between knockouts and submissions.
    Timur Valiev (17-2) entered the Octagon with considerable hype behind him and seemed to be living up to it against debut foe Trevin Jones, only to suffer a shocking comeback knockout loss. The defeat was later overturned to a “No Contest,” which he followed by dominating Martin Day in Feb. 2021.
    He stands one inch shorter than Barcelos.
    I loathe this fight from a matchmaking perspective. Barcelos is undefeated (5-0) in the Octagon and turned 34 this year. In other words, he deserves a ranked contender, not another hugely promising prospect. From the perspective of someone who likes watching very skilled fighters punching each other in the face, on the other hand, it’s great. These are two top-tier strikers who’ll put on a hell of a show.
    Barcelos will be the one to close it. He’s got the edge in power, wrestling, submissions and (most critically) durability, as well as the countering skills to punish Valiev’s aggression. In the end, Barcelos ends a terrific battle sometime in the second.
    Prediction: Barcelos via second round technical knockout
    Related
    Gane vs. Volkov Expected To Headline UFC’s June 26 Event

    170 lbs.: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Michel Prazeres

    Kazakhstan’s Shavkat Rakhmonov (13-0) ran roughshod over the Eurasian circuit, claiming titles in both Battle of Nomads and M-1. His success earned him a trip to the Octagon, and after more than one year of delays, “Nomad” announced his arrival by choking out Alex Oliveira at UFC 254.
    All of his wins have come inside the distance, seven of them by form of knockout.
    Though he assembled an impressive six-fight win streak as a UFC Lightweight, Michel Prazeres (26-3) wound up missing weight three times in four fights along the way, sending him to 170 pounds. He started strong with wins over Zak Cummings and Bartosz Fabinski, but failed to overcome Ismail Naurdiev in his third effort.
    This will be his first fight in 28 months thanks to a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension (read details here).
    While Prazeres’ smothering wrestling and top-notch jiu-jitsu make him a credible threat to the still-developing Rakhmonov, there’s very little going his way here. Aside from the huge layoff, his inability to grind out Naurdiev, whose takedown defense proved porous in subsequent UFC efforts, suggests that he’s nowhere near as effective at manhandling Welterweights. Plus, Rakhmonov boasts downright unfair height and reach advantages and the striking know-how to make the most of them.
    Prazeres’ best shots at victory lie in either clipping Rakhmonov early for a club-and-sub or turning it into an absolute slog, neither of which strike me as particularly likely. “Trator” is durable enough to last the full 15 minutes, but Rakhmonov will take him apart at range.
    Prediction: Rakhmonov via unanimous decision
    Related
    Gane Accepts Callout From ‘Dangerous’ Lewis

    170 lbs.: Tim Means vs. Nicolas Dalby

    A 6-1 (1 NC) run for Tim Means (31-12-1) gave way to a 3-5 skid, capped off by a submission loss to Daniel Rodriguez. “The Dirty Bird” has since righted the ship with decisions over Laureano Staropoli and Mike Perry to up his UFC victory total to 13.
    His 24 career stoppages include 19 via (technical) knockout.
    Three years after leaving UFC on a loss to Peter Sobotta, Nicolas Dalby (19-3) returned with a vengeance, out-lasting Alex Oliveira for his first Octagon victory since 2015. A failed drug test on Jesse Ronson’s part overturned Dalby’s subsequent loss, which he followed by narrowly edging out the aforementioned Rodriguez.
    Though the shorter man by four inches, he gives up just a half-inch of reach.
    This is something of a kludge match — Means was supposed to fight Danny Roberts last week, while Dalby was booked to face Sergey Khandozhko this Saturday. Can’t complain about the improvisation, though, as this is a very nice stylistic match up.
    I had Means beating Roberts and I have him beating Dalby. Means’ height, volume and stopping power figure to serve him well in the stand up, and though Dalby’s a functional wrestler, Means has become increasingly adept at keeping it on the feet over the years. In addition, Dalby has the Eddie Alvarez/Jorge Masvidal problem of consistently getting dropped once per fight, which takes what’s already an uphill battle and makes it that much steeper.
    Dalby’s persistence could admittedly pay dividends, especially if Means’ takedown defense proves more porous than expected. Against a bigger, more active, versatile and powerful striker, however, his options outside of pure grind are limited. In short, Means shuts down his wrestling and comfortably out-works him standing.
    Prediction: Means via unanimous decision
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  16. #16
    magpie878
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    Last week, those prelims were a cash cow in the early matches... if you were betting against them. $

  17. #17
    Sanity Check
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    LeMartin picks

    OSP +150
    Gane -170

  18. #18
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Marques over Zzechukwu also looks very appealing....simple gameplan at +$.... SHIP IT
    Damn it Paper, if your picks are correct I'm f^cked. I already put 5 units on Barelos @-220 and 5 units on Kennedy NZ @-118. I rewatched Marques fights and his UFC fights were against Khadis & Mike Rodriques ( the shittiest of shit IMO) and he didn't look that good. I don't think Marques is any where near Paul Craig's level and Kennedy had Craig beat until he had brain lapse in the last minute. I think a Kennedy high knee will put Marques out cold.

    If you make those plays Good Luck
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  19. #19
    kobejoshy
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    Mybookie has prop odds flipped for the Alves v Wells fight. Well by KO is +100 lol

  20. #20
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by kobejoshy View Post
    Mybookie has prop odds flipped for the Alves v Wells fight. Well by KO is +100 lol
    I need alves bad.

  21. #21
    frankieunits2685
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    Early start time! GL to all.
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  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
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    UFC on ESPN+ 48: Gane vs. Volkov Picks:
    Damir Hadzovic Round 2 TKO (Punches)
    Charles Rosa Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
    Julia Avila Round 1 TKO (Punches)
    Marcin Prachnio Round 1 TKO (Punches)
    Warlley Alves Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
    Shavkat Rakhmonov Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
    Kennedy Nzechukwu Round 2 TKO (Punches)
    Renato Moicano Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
    Tim Means Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
    Andre Fili Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
    Raoni Barcelos Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
    Tanner Boser Round 2 TKO (Punches)
    Ciryl Gane Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)

  23. #23
    Hugo de Naranja
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    UFC on ESPN+ 48: Gane vs. Volkov

    ESPN+ Prelims:

    Fight #1: Hadzovic vs. Medeiros
    Hadzovic KO/TKO (+500) 0.3u

    Fight #2: C. Rosa vs. Jaynes
    No Bet

    Fight #3: J. Avila vs. Stoliarenko
    J. Avila KO/TKO (+300) 0.25u

    Fight #4: Prachnio vs. Villanueva
    No Bet

    Fight #5: W. Alves vs. Wells (DEBUT)
    No Bet

    Fight #6: Rakhmonov vs. Prazeres
    No Bet

    Fight #7: Nzechukwu vs. Marques
    No Bet

    Main Card:

    Fight #8: Moicano vs. Herbert
    Moicano+Herbert Under 2.5 (-150) 0.6u to win 0.4u

    Fight #9: Means vs. Dalby
    No Bet

    Fight #10: Fili vs. Pineda
    No Bet

    Fight #11: Barcelos vs. Valiev
    No Bet

    Fight #12: Boser vs. Saint Preux
    No Bet

    Fight #13: Gane vs. Volkov
    Gane (-154) 2u to win 1.3u
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  24. #24
    PaperTrail07
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    Lets GO!
    Alves-230
    Prachino -210
    Marquez +110
    Valiev +200
    Volkov +125
    Moicano -230
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  25. #25
    frankieunits2685
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    What an ending!!
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  26. #26
    Merlin21
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    Some great fights here early on! Good luck gentlemen!

  27. #27
    Kermit
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    Terrible fight IQ by Justin Jaynes.

  28. #28
    Merlin21
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    Avila TKO +300 here for me

  29. #29
    Sanity Check
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    Jaynes lost?


    He bet $25,000 on himself to win this fight.

    ...


    “I’m putting my entire fight contract on myself, and my coaches are doing that, as well,” Jaynes said in an interview with Overtime Heroics
    . “I’m betting close to ($25,000) that I’m winning my fight because that’s how much I believe in myself. This is all in for me and if I lose this fight, I do not get paid, and my coaches do not get paid either.”


    https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/...rse-on-himself

  30. #30
    Merlin21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Jaynes lost?

    He bet $25,000 on himself to win this fight.

    ...


    “I’m putting my entire fight contract on myself, and my coaches are doing that, as well,” Jaynes said in an interview with Overtime Heroics
    . “I’m betting close to ($25,000) that I’m winning my fight because that’s how much I believe in myself. This is all in for me and if I lose this fight, I do not get paid, and my coaches do not get paid either.”


    https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/...rse-on-himself
    He got close.... But close doesn't get you paid

  31. #31
    Demonata
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  32. #32
    Sanity Check
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    Judges: Is Julia Avila vs Julija Stoliarenko over already?

  33. #33
    Sanity Check
    A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships
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    Join Date: 03-30-13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post


    Rough.

    Reminds me of Nate Diaz having a backstage altercation with RDA back in the day.

    Athletic commissions fined Diaz.

    The size of the fine was almost the same size as Diaz paycheck.

    Think he wound up fighting RDA for free.

  34. #34
    dlowilly
    dlowilly's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Bizarre interview with Avila

    How do you go from crying to mean mugging and saying ur a bad m fer within 10 seconds? Obvious psychopath.

  35. #35
    Kermit
    My Finger Smells Like Pork
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    Damn. What a body kick.

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