[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai
Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Roman Dolidze
Miguel Baeza vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Maki Pitolo vs. Dusko Todorovic
Antonio Arroyo vs. Tom Breese

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Nate Landwehr
Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski
Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi
Muslim Salikhov vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Mason Jones vs. Alan Patrick
Manon Fiorot vs. Maryna Moroz
Sean Woodson vs. Youssef Zalal
Jordan Leavitt vs. Claudio Puelles

[povis]

Santiago Ponzinibbio was on very nice run before all the injuries and KO loss to Li but I still believe he can be very competent agaist guys like miguel.

[Kermit]

16 fights? Holy Hell.

[PaperTrail07]

1 already cancelled/pending a replacement.....Pitolo is out

16 fights? Holy Hell.

[frankieunits2685]

1 already cancelled/pending a replacement.....Pitolo is out

Ribas/Hill is once again off.

[magpie878]

I can never, and will never, put money on Rozenstruik again after his last fight against Gane.

[JIBBBY]

UFC taking a break this upcoming weekend I see. Not liking this wait time between events..

[frankieunits2685]

They are trying to find a replacement for Amirkhanis opponent Nate Landwehr

[frankieunits2685]

They are trying to find a replacement for Amirkhanis opponent Nate Landwehr

Makwan Amirkhani will now fight Kamuela Kirk

[Brandt Moat]

Todorovic is another tough Serb new to the UFC. He has had a few fighters switch up on him in the past few weeks. I don't read everything UFC news. There might be a good reason for this happening. I liked him matched up in his initial bout. Didn't get a chance to handicap the second guy before they pulled that fight. Now his opponent looks to have a much higher pedigree. Other then what I read about him, I have not seen his fights. I don't subscribe to any past performance video companies. I like Dusko's style when fighting lesser qualified opponents then this guy. Now, I am seeing value on his opponent! If this guy is the world class practitioner of BBJ as his accomplishments show, he should wrap Dusko up. Not only is he a BBJ stud he KO's guys. Todorovic's exposure to mostly Serb MMA in his mother country will hurt him against this level of opposition. Dusko getting KOed last fight doesn't bother me. It wasn't the type of KO that leaves him questioning himself or his abilities. It was a nice shot that will teach him a lesson. He is the type of guy that will rebound off a KO of that nature. Any info on his opponent Gregory Rodrigues is appreciated.

[hankcream]

It sucks that we don't have any fights this weekend. Can't believe they matched Baeza up with Ponzinibbio, unless Santiago is really past his prime, that's a pretty tough match up for a prospect like Baeza.

[hankcream]

Todorovic is another tough Serb new to the UFC. He has had a few fighters switch up on him in the past few weeks. I don't read everything UFC news. There might be a good reason for this happening. I liked him matched up in his initial bout. Didn't get a chance to handicap the second guy before they pulled that fight. Now his opponent looks to have a much higher pedigree. Other then what I read about him, I have not seen his fights. I don't subscribe to any past performance video companies. I like Dusko's style when fighting lesser qualified opponents then this guy. Now, I am seeing value on his opponent! If this guy is the world class practitioner of BBJ as his accomplishments show, he should wrap Dusko up. Not only is he a BBJ stud he KO's guys. Todorovic's exposure to mostly Serb MMA in his mother country will hurt him against this level of opposition. Dusko getting KOed last fight doesn't bother me. It wasn't the type of KO that leaves him questioning himself or his abilities. It was a nice shot that will teach him a lesson. He is the type of guy that will rebound off a KO of that nature. Any info on his opponent Gregory Rodrigues is appreciated.

I think this line is a bargain for Dusko and I already put over a unit on him. His opponent has fought a bunch of tomato cans and he got his ass knocked out by, a mediocre at best, Jordan Williams on the Contender Series. I think the line is low right now because of Dusko's last fight but he does have some serious skills -hell he knocked out Michel Periera a couple of years ago. I'm planning on laying a decent amount on Dusko inside the distance as soon as I can get it.

[Brandt Moat]

I think this line is a bargain for Dusko and I already put over a unit on him. His opponent has fought a bunch of tomato cans and he got his ass knocked out by, a mediocre at best, Jordan Williams on the Contender Series. I think the line is low right now because of Dusko's last fight but he does have some serious skills -hell he knocked out Michel Periera a couple of years ago. I'm planning on laying a decent amount on Dusko inside the distance as soon as I can get it.

Thanks for the input. Might reconsider Dusko. Only had info provided on his opponent. The line movement had me thinking. Thought they may have feed him to the wolves. Good Luck!

[Unwritten Law]

Soriano has tremendous power and is a serious prospect that put Dusko away with ease. Let's see if he can rebound from his first loss. I do like his chances for redemption here.

[Brandt Moat]

Was looking ahead at Soriano later next month. His opponent "Fluffy" is a come at you type fighter. Should be a good one to watch. You guys are getting me back in favor of Dusko. The BBJ of this Rodrigues gives me concern. Not sure Todorovic is ready to defend that if it goes to the ground. Thanks

[sosawestbrook]

I can never, and will never, put money on Rozenstruik again after his last fight against Gane.

think he'll have a nice shot at redemption against Sakai who likes to fight in the pocket. Gane killed him from a distance but he'll have more opportunities to bring the fight into his world this Saturday

[sosawestbrook]

UFC taking a break this upcoming weekend I see. Not liking this wait time between events..

right!
Saturdays just not the same w/o a UFC event

[Sanity Check]

LeMartin's calls.

-Tom Breese inside distance
-Augusto Sakai ML

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -







125 lbs.: Manon Fiorot vs. Maryna Moroz

The unsuccessful professional debut for Manon Fiorot (6-1) gave way to title runs in both EFC and UAE Warriors, which ultimately set up a late-notice UFC debut in Jan. 2021. There, “The Beast” beat down “Contender Series” graduate Victoria Leonardo for her fourth consecutive stoppage win.
She has finished six professional opponents inside the distance (all via strikes).
A 3-1 Octagon start — anchored by a massive upset of Joanne Calderwood in her debut — put Ukraine’s Maryna Moroz (10-3) in Strawweight contention, where she fell short against division stalwarts Carla Esparza and Angela Hill. Her subsequent move to Flyweight paid dividends, resulting in decision victories over Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
“Iron Lady” will have two inches of reach on Fiorot.
Moroz’s high-volume boxing may be a delight to watch, but she’s unquestionably up against it here. Fiorot has considerable edges in power and defense that Moroz will struggle to overcome, especially since Fiorot’s range management and kicking attack serve as serious foils for the “Iron Lady’s” preferred long-range attack.
Even if Moroz does manage to build a head of steam, Fiorot has a strong clinch and a decent ground game to fall back on, sorely limiting Moroz’s avenues of victory. Moroz is durable enough to end Fiorot’s knockout streak, but that just means she’ll suffer a full 15 minutes of mauling.
Prediction: Fiorot via unanimous decision
Related
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125 lbs.: Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski

Though her The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 run ended early at the hands of eventual winner Nicco Montano, Montana De La Rosa (11-6-1) fought her way into UFC contention with three consecutive victories. She’s 1-2-1 since, most recently gritting her way through a brutal draw with Mayra Bueno Silva in Feb. 2021.
Nine of her professional victories have come by submission.
Though she started her UFC career 0-2, Ariane Lipski (13-6) managed to even up her Octagon record with a decision over Isabela de Padua and gruesome kneebar finish of Luana Carolina. She couldn’t keep the momentum up, however, suffering her fist stoppage loss since 2014 at the hands of Antonina Shevchenko in Nov. 2020.
“The Violence Queen” gives up one inch of height and reach to De La Rosa.
I’ve long yammered about how De La Rosa’s underwhelming wrestling makes her top-notch ground game a non-factor against strong opposition, but you don’t need to be a Division 1 All-American to take Lipski to the mat. The Brazilian’s takedown defense has been more or less nonexistent throughout her tenure in the Octagon, and considering the sort of damage and adversity De La Rosa fought through in recent efforts, Lipski can’t rely on bludgeoning her into submission before De La Rosa can get her grappling going.
As a long-time fan of Lipski’s brutal striking, I’d love nothing more than to see her finally get her act together and develop a proper sprawl. Alas, I’ve been burned too many times by this point. In the end, De La Rosa spams takedowns and dominates on the mat.
Prediction: De La Rosa via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Sean Woodson vs. Youssef Zalal

Despite entering his “Contender Series” bout with Terrance McKinney as more than a +200 underdog, Sean Woodson (7-1) punched his ticket to UFC with a second-round flying knee. After cruising past Kyle Bochniak in his promotional debt, “The Sniper” took on Julian Erosa, who survived early adversity to catch Woodson in a d’arce choke midway through the third.
He stands four inches taller than “The Moroccan Devil” and will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.
Youssef Zalal (10-4) emerged as one of 2020’s unexpected highlights by dispatching three opponents in the span of six months. Top prospect Ilia Topuria kept him from going 4-0, and Seung Woo Choi subsequently handed Zalal a unanimous decision loss to start his 2021 campaign.
He’s scored five submission finishes as a professional.
While there’s no shame in losing to a monster like Topuria, Zalal seriously underwhelmed against Choi, struggling to get his wrestling going and failing to really commit to his striking when the takedowns proved elusive. That’s not a good sign against the boxing-savvy Woodson, who’s proven remarkably difficult to take and hold down despite his lanky frame. Combine that with Woodson’s significant edge in volume and you’ve got a recipe for another frustrating defeat.
That said, Erosa did manage to wear down Woodson through sheer persistence and ultimately bring his ground game to bear, but Zalal’s usually happy to let opponents take the lead instead of pressing the issue. Expect that to come back to bite him once again as Woodson racks up the combinations for a comfortable win.
Prediction: Woodson via unanimous decision
Related
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155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Jordan Leavitt

Peru’s Claudio Puelles (9-2) looked doomed to a winless (0-2) Octagon start after two brutal rounds against Felipe Silva, only for him to turn the tables with a bonus-winning kneebar midway through the third. Then came a 16-month layoff, which he ended in Sept. 2019 with a decision over Marcos Mariano.
He fights for the first time in more than 20 months.
Less than three weeks after making a successful LFA debut, Jordan Leavitt (8-0) made short work of Luke Flores on “Contender Series” to earn himself a UFC contract. “The Monkey King” proved even more efficient in his UFC debut, where he slammed Matt Wiman unconscious in just 22 seconds.
That win marked his first (technical) knockout win and sixth finish overall.
Not to denigrate Puelles’ accomplishments, but Felipe Silva beat him half to death before an all-time choke and Marcos Mariano was, without exaggeration, one of the worst UFC Lightweights of the modern era. I’ll be very surprised if Leavitt — who boasts a notable wrestling advantage and more than enough jiu-jitsu chops to avoid Silva’s mistakes — doesn’t dominate from bell to bell.
Frankly, my biggest question is whether Puelles can last the distance, especially considering the long layoff. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he manages to just survive 15 minutes of one-sided grappling.
Prediction: Leavitt via unanimous decision




145 lbs.: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Kamuela Kirk

Makwan Amirkhani (16-5) quickly made a name for himself in the Octagon with wins in five of his first six bouts, two of which earned him post-fight bonuses. The momentum was not to last, as “Mr. Finland” has now lost two of three to division standouts Shane Burgos and Edson Barboza.
He boasts 11 submissions among his 12 stoppage wins.
Things went from bad to worse for Kamuela Kirk (11-4) when he followed his “Contender Series” loss to Billy Quarantillo with a narrow split decision defeat in his LFA return. “The Jawaiian” has since righted the ship with two straight wins, the most recent of which saw him retire fellow “Contender Series” veteran Daniel Swain in May 2021.
He replaces the injured Nate Landwehr on less than two weeks’ notice.
It’s become clear that while Amirkhani is a wrestler nonpareil with an excellent array of front chokes, he’s a non-factor if he can’t find an early finish or rack up long stretches of top control. Kirk — an excellent jiu-jitsu player in his own right — is skilled enough to keep his neck safe while Amirkhani’s fresh and debilitating enough in his striking attack to sap the Finn’s gas tank on the feet.
So long as Kirk isn’t debilitated by the short notice and doesn’t elect to indulge Amirkhani on the mat, his high-volume boxing looks like just the ticket to make “Mr. Finland” wilt. In short, Kirk punishes Amirkhani’s head and body down the stretch after a tough first round.
Prediction: Kirk via unanimous decision
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265 lbs.: Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi

The well-traveled Tanner Boser (19-7-1) announced his arrival in UFC’s Heavyweight division with wins in three of his first four appearances, including brutal knockouts of Philipe Lins and Raphael Pessoa. Like so many others, however, “Bulldozer” fell victim to Andrei Arlovski’s new technical approach, dropping a unanimous decision in Nov. 2020.
He’ll have four inches of height and two inches of reach on “The Sledgehammer.”
Ilir Latifi (14-8) went from losing his last-minute Octagon debut against Gegard Mousasi to winning seven of his next nine, five of them inside the distance. That run has since given way to a three-fight losing streak, which most recently saw him fall to Derrick Lewis in a move to Heavyweight.
He has knocked out and submitted five professional foes apiece.
Changing weight classes is never a cure-all for a struggling fighter, but it strikes me as straight-up counterproductive for Latifi. He was already short for Light Heavyweight at 205 pounds and relied on punching power and ridiculous physical strength to make up for his technical shortcomings, neither of which figure to be anywhere near as effective against larger opposition.
On top of that, Boser is a toxic stylistic match up for him, as the Canadian is too mobile for Latifi to land his short-range bombs or find good entries for his shots. Unless he can glue Boser to the fence and grind away for all 15 minutes, Boser figures to potshot him to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Boser via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main card...

Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli

Best Win for Dolidze? John Allan For Staropoli? Thiago Alves
Current Streak: Dolidze suffered his first pro defeat last time out, and Staropoli has lost two straight
X-Factor: How will Staropoli perform at 185 pounds?
How these two match up: A former Light Heavyweight will battle a long-time Welterweight.
Dolidze has skills, but I’m not sure he fully understands how to use them just yet. He’s very clearly a natural athlete with some plus skills on the mat and at the kicking range, but he’s also very willingly to make risky choices like diving on leg locks, which came back to bite him in his most recent performance opposite Trevin Giles.
Meanwhile, Staropoli started his UFC career strong with a pair of victories on the strength of his Muay Thai and conditioning. He’s since come up short to a pair of very established veterans, but a bad weight miss has sent him packing to Middleweight.
This could go down very strangely. Staropoli pretty much wins by remaining active and rangy, throwing more than his opponent at long range. That may be more difficult against bigger men, but he at least understands how he wins fights. Dolidze, on the other hand, might spend 15 minutes kickboxing the kickboxer for reasons unknown.
Still, Dolidze appears to be bigger and better. Even if he doesn’t take the path of least resistance (takedowns), he still has a solid chance of coming out ahead.
Prediction: Dolidze via decision
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---

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza

Best Win for Ponzinibbio? Neil Magny For Baeza? Matt Brown
Current Streak: Ponzinibbio returned from a long layoff and big win streak to disaster results back in January, whereas Baeza has won three straight inside the Octagon
X-Factor: How does Ponzinibbio respond from a bad knockout loss?
How these two match up: Violence.
Ponzinibbio is a bruiser. The Argentinian athlete hits very, very hard, ripping calf kicks and sending murderous one-two combinations down the middle. He’s got five-round cardio and solid defensive wrestling in his back pocket as well, but it remains to be seen if Ponzinibbio is still at his best given his layoff and loss.
Baeza is one of Welterweight’s most promising up-and-comers. The MMA Masters-trained prospect glides around the Octagon, showcasing a real veteran knack for effortlessly timing counters and picking opponents apart.
Prior to Ponzinibbio’s loss to Li Jingliang, I would have picked him in a heartbeat — he’s knocked out some really quality opposition. However, the cold hard facts here are that “Gente BkofAma” is a 34-year-old slugger coming off a bad knockout less than six months ago facing an undefeated prospect.
Maybe Ponzinibbio turns back the clock, but sometimes one has to side with momentum and common sense.
Prediction: Baeza via knockout
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Predictions! UFC Vegas 28 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

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Middleweight: Dusko Todorovic vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Best Win for Todorovic? Dequan Townsend For Rodrigues? Josh Fremd
Current Streak: Todorovic is looking to rebound from his first pro loss, while Rodrigues debuts following two wins in LFA
X-Factor: UFC jitters
How these two match up: Two aggressive young Middleweights will throw down.
Todorovic was looking real slick opposite Punahele Soriano ... until the Hawaiian started timing his head movement with absolute BOMBS! That defeat aside, Todorovic has thus far proven himself a well-rounded prospect, showing off both slick kickboxing and grinding wrestling.
Rodrigues has only lost once in the last five years, coming up short on “Contender Series.” Otherwise, the striker has been stopping quality competition in legitimate regional shows, priming him for his UFC debut.
I am not ready to write off Todorovic just yet. He faces a dangerous foe with considerable range and power, so the risk of getting caught leaning back definitely exists, but the Serbian athlete seems built for long term success in the Octagon. If the stand up exchanges get too spicy, expect “Thunder” to return to his wrestling roots and win from top position.
Getting back in the win column is the priority here.
Prediction: Todorovic via decision
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---

Middleweight: Tom Breese vs. Antonio Arroyo

Best Win for Breese? Keita Nakamura For Arroyo? Trevor Carlson
Current Streak: Breese came up short last time out, while Arroyo has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Breese is rather inconsistent
How these two match up: More Middleweight action!
At one point, Breese was perhaps United Kingdom’s hottest prospect thanks to a violent 3-0 start to his UFC career. A competitive loss to Sean Strickland sent him to the sidelines and then eventually to 185 pounds, where Breese has since struggled to find consistent success. When he’s on point though, the English athlete is very dangerous on his feet and carries rather heavy hands.
Winless since his “Contenders Series” signing, Arroyo is still searching for that first UFC victory. He’s got some nice range kickboxing skills to compliment his grappling, but thus far, Arroyo has struggled to control where the fight takes place. In two UFC fights, he’s given up 15 takedowns.
Fortunately for Arroyo, Breese is not exactly a dynamic offensive (or defensive) wrestler. On the flip side, Breese is the better striker, and unless Arroyo manages to showcase a new depth to his wrestling, he’s unlikely to be able to mix it up and keep Breese (also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt) uncomfortable.
Instead, Breese continues alternating wins and losses on the strength of his power punching.
Prediction: Breese via decision

[PaperTrail07]

Ricci looking on point

Woodson $
PONz $
Dolizde $

[hankcream]

Ricci looking on point

Woodson $
PONz $
Dolizde $

Damn right that Ricci girl looked nice she even had a nice pair of

[frankieunits2685]

Looking forward to some fights tomorrow!

[BIGDAY]

Leavitt EZ

[frankieunits2685]

Leavitt EZ

If it’s easy money, you should be going all in right?

[BIGDAY]

If it’s easy money, you should be going all in right?

Absolutely

[frankieunits2685]

Absolutely

GL buddy! I think he wins too.

[frankieunits2685]

Prelims start 4pm EST. Main card @ 7pm EST. Both are on ESPN+.

[JIBBBY]

Contemplating using the ITD dog prop theory with every fight on this card.

Good value with ITD dog prop odds on this card. Just need a few to hit to get paid big on this card. Many of these fights could go either way and I could see upsets and finishes happening.

[JIBBBY]

^ Thanks for the 60 points JC, really not necessary buddy..

[JC2008]

^ Thanks for the 60 points JC, really not necessary buddy..

No problem! They don't do me a lot of good as a Canadian...

[KingHawkins]

Thinking of you Hugo. I want to see your bets (if any), but more so hoping things are settled down in your personal world outside of MMA. Sending well wishes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 47: Sakai vs. Rozenstruik Picks:
Jordan Leavitt Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Sean Woodson Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Manon Fiorot Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mason Jones Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Makwan Amirkhani Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Muslim Salikhov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Tanner Boser Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Montana De La Rosa Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Tom Breese Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Gregory Rodrigues Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Miguel Baeza Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Laureano Staropoli Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Walt Harris Round 1 KO (Knee and Punches)
Augusto Sakai Round 3 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 47: Sakai vs. Rozenstruik

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Leavitt vs. Puelles
No Bet

Fight #2: Zalal vs. Woodson
No Bet

Fight #3: Fiorot vs. Ricci (DEBUT)
Ricci ITD (+700) 0.15u

Fight #4: M. Jones vs. Patrick
M. Jones Decision (+280) 0.35u
M. Jones Round 3 (+900) 0.15u

Fight #5: Amirkhani vs. Kirk (DEBUT)
Kirk (+175) 0.5u

Fight #6: Salikhov vs. Trinaldo
No Bet

Fight #7: Boser vs. Latifi
No Bet

Fight #8: De La Rosa vs. Lipski
De La Rosa ITD (+280) 0.25u
De La Rosa Submission (+360) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #9: Breese vs. Arroyo
No Bet

Fight #10: G. Rodrigues (DEBUT) vs. Todorovic
G. Rodrigues ITD (+260) 0.25u

Fight #11: Baeza vs. Ponzinibbio
No Bet

Fight #12: Staropoli vs. Dolidze
Staropoli (+130) 0.4u

Fight #13: Harris vs. Tybura
Harris KO/TKO (+310) 0.4u
Harris Round 1 (+500) 0.1u

Fight #14: Sakai vs. Rozenstruik
Sakai (+105) 0.35u

[frankieunits2685]

UFC Vegas 28 Prelims:

Leavitt -220 (risk 1.2u)