[Hugo de Naranja]

Kind of surprised you’re so high on O’Malley. All I see is hype &!he claims he trains at MMM Lab but all I see is that his personal coach is nothing but a “Yes Man”. He does have good enough physical tools but his head seems fu$ked up with his hype and his social media bs. Plus are you sure he won’t roll an ankle again?
.

I don't think O'Malley is a Tier 1 prospect and I bet Vera ML, SNA, and ITD against him. However, this is an excellent style matchup for him. He's in there against a guy with limited offensive wrestling, poor durability, and no striking defense who gets hit by a lot of kicks.

I can't be sure he won't roll an ankle again. If that happens, I'll take my L. In my opinion, things like that are pretty low percentage.

[unitedlad]

Hugo, would appreciate your thoughts on Luque Woodley matchup. Thinking Luque by decision, unfortunately none of the UK books offer the points handicap otherwise that would be by preference. I can't see a path for victory For Woodley at this stage in his career. He's shown nothing in his last 3 fights that makes me think he can compete with Luque's relentless offence. Luque does get clipped a lot and relies on his solid chin but does Woodley still have the power to drop fighters of Luque's calibre?

[thedenthead]

I can currently get O’Malley/under 2.5 at +125. What am I missing here? I have a 856 dollar free bet I might lay on it. Hugo, talk me out of it.

[magpie878]

I can currently get O’Malley/under 2.5 at +125. What am I missing here? I have a 856 dollar free bet I might lay on it. Hugo, talk me out of it.

If you like O'Malley and under 2.5 AND are pretty sure he isn't going to sub Almeida, you can probably get better odds on O'Malley winning my KO/TKO/DQ.

DK currently has that prop at +130.

DK has NOT going the distance at -225.

DK has O'Malley winning by finish at -112.

DK has fight ending in the first 60 seconds at +1000.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I can currently get O’Malley/under 2.5 at +125. What am I missing here? I have a 856 dollar free bet I might lay on it. Hugo, talk me out of it.

Do you have to put the entire free bet on one outcome?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, would appreciate your thoughts on Luque Woodley matchup. Thinking Luque by decision, unfortunately none of the UK books offer the points handicap otherwise that would be by preference. I can't see a path for victory For Woodley at this stage in his career. He's shown nothing in his last 3 fights that makes me think he can compete with Luque's relentless offence. Luque does get clipped a lot and relies on his solid chin but does Woodley still have the power to drop fighters of Luque's calibre?

I think Luque knocks him out. Can see the Luque Decision angle as well but at about twice the price I prefer Luque KO/TKO for sure. Woodley still has power but I'd need to see him win a fight at this point to have much interest in backing him going forward.

[UncleChael]

I'm with WTD here. Rooting for Luque to KO Woodley unconscious and end his fighting career.

Last pure striker Woodley fought, he dropped the T-Wood bomb on him and took his title... Woodley gonna make this one look easyyyy

[Hugo de Naranja]

Last pure striker Woodley fought, he dropped the T-Wood bomb on him and took his title... Woodley gonna make this one look easyyyy

#FreezingColdTakes coming for one of us here haha.

[magpie878]

Last pure striker Woodley fought, he dropped the T-Wood bomb on him and took his title... Woodley gonna make this one look easyyyy

Almost five years ago. If you're hanging on that to think he's going to win easily, good luck.

[Sanity Check]

Gilbert Burns and Vicente Luque train together and corner each other. Luque could aim to replicate the success Gilbert Burns had vs T-wood.

On the flipside this is the first 3 round fight T-wood has had since 2015 or 2016. He doesn't have to conserve his energy the way he would in a 5 round fight. It changes the landscape a little.

I don't know if we'll ever see Woodley let his hands go. He hasn't shown much urgency even when he was down 4 rounds vs Kamaru, Burns and Colby. Is there a chance he'll show some urgency, some desire to win on saturday?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gilbert Burns and Vicente Luque train together and corner each other. Luque could aim to replicate the success Gilbert Burns had vs T-wood.

On the flipside this is the first 3 round fight T-wood has had since 2015 or 2016. He doesn't have to conserve his energy the way he would in a 5 round fight. It changes the landscape a little.

Agreed. Both of these are interesting dynamics/storylines.

[UncleChael]

#FreezingColdTakes coming for one of us here haha.

I watched him rebound from a Nate the Great KO and become champ. I think Woodley can out wrestle anyone his size for 15 minutes that's never wore a wrestling singlet till he's 50. He's not gonna have a 30lb size advantage like the Stipe/Ngannou fight. #TellEmUncleChaelSentYa

[Hugo de Naranja]

I watched him rebound from a Nate the Great KO and become champ. I think Woodley can out wrestle anyone his size for 15 minutes that's never wore a wrestling singlet till he's 50. He's not gonna have a 30lb size advantage like the Stipe/Ngannou fight. #TellEmUncleChaelSentYa

How many takedowns would you guess Woodley has hit in the UFC?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I watched him rebound from a Nate the Great KO and become champ. I think Woodley can out wrestle anyone his size for 15 minutes that's never wore a wrestling singlet till he's 50. He's not gonna have a 30lb size advantage like the Stipe/Ngannou fight. #TellEmUncleChaelSentYa

What are you talking about here?

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups.




205 lbs.: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Modestas Bukauskas (11-3) won and defended the Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight title en route to the Octagon, where he debuted with a first-round finish of late replacement Andreas Michailidis. Jimmy Crute proved tougher to crack, however, flattening the Lithuanian three months later with a bonus-winning knockout.
All but one of the wins for “The Baltic Gladiator” have come by stoppage, eight of them by form of knockout.
Though a failed drug test erased his debut Octagon victory over Khalil Rountree, Michal Oleksiejczuk (14-4) made inroads into the UFC Light Heavyweight division with brutal finishes of Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. He’s since struggled to maintain that momentum, tapping to successive submissions from Ovince St. Preux and the aforementioned Crute.
He stands three inches shorter than Bukauskas and gives up four inches of reach.
This fight will be decided by Bukauskas’ ability to stretch things out. He’s got a legitimately excellent gas tank that’s practically single-handedly carried him to victory in the past, and his edge in speed and striking variety should allow him to take over as the fight progresses and Oleksiejczuk’s single-minded advance begins to slow.
Unfortunately, actually surviving long enough to get that snowball rolling looks like too tall a task. Bukauskas is easy to hit even at the best of times and struggles to keep his back off the fence, both lethal flaws against a pressure-fighting slugger like Oleksiejczuk. Without the fear of takedowns to keep him honest, expect Oleksiejczuk to march forward and slam left hands into Bukauskas’ face and body until he crumples.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via first-round technical knockout
Related
Video: Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 260: ‘Miocic Vs. Ngannou 2’

145 lbs.: Shane Young vs. Omar Morales

Shane Young (13-5) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Alexander Volkanovski with consecutive victories over Rolando Dy and Austin Arnett, the former of which earned him “Fight of the Night.” Then came late replacement Ludovit Klein, who stopped the City Kickboxing-trained product with strikes in Sept. 2020.
He has knocked out six professional foes and submitted another four.
An upset knockout of Harvey Park sent Omar Morales (10-1) from “Contender Series” to the Octagon, where he defeated Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez. His third bout saw him drop to Featherweight to face Giga Chikadze and ultimately fall short in an entertaining striking bout.
He’ll have three inches of height and 1.5 inches of reach on Young.
Now here’s an interesting clash of styles. Young’s the smoother and more combination-savvy of the two, while Morales appears to have more firepower. This fight comes down to whether Young can get his high-volume offense flowing without falling victim to Morales’ from-the-hip bombs.
It’s a toughie, but I say he doesn’t. Young is nowhere near as elusive as Benitez or Chikadze — he’ll be there for Morales to hit, and his volume isn’t sufficient to make up for the power disparity. While Young is tough enough to last the distance, expect Morales’ eye-catching shots to seal the decision.
Prediction: Morales via unanimous decision
Related
Volkanovski Vs. Ortega Removed From UFC 260

185 lbs.: Abu Azaitar vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Abu Azaitar (14-2-1) — originally slated to make his UFC debut against Siyar Bahadurzada in Sept. 2017 — saw injury troubles delay his arrival to the Octagon by another year. He successfully made up for lost time with a unanimous decision over TUF: “Brazil” veteran Vitor Miranda, extending his unbeaten streak to 10 in the process.
He fights for the first time since July 2018, having withdrawn from planned 2020 clashes against Alessio Di Chirico and Joaquin Buckley while failing a drug test along the way.
Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault (11-4) claimed the TKO Middleweight title in 2017 and subsequently punched his ticket to UFC with two successful defenses. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, however, losing three straight and seeing a knockout win over Oskar Piechota overturned due to a failed drug test.
His 11 professional wins include eight by form of knockout.
“Gladiator” was mediocre even at his best, an uninspiring brawler with just enough wrestling to bail himself out of rough spots. He’s now 35 years old and hasn’t seen action in more than 30 months, turning what was already a rough assignment into a nightmare. Barriault is by far the more impressive striker and Azaitar lacks the technical wrestling necessary to exploit “Power Bar’s” takedown defense the way other have before.
Unless Azaitar has made some truly spectacular adjustments during his time away, Barriault is too tough and too powerful for the German’s “swing big and hope for the best” approach. Barriault punishes him with increasing frequency before closing the show around the midway point.
Prediction: Barriault via second-round technical knockout



170 lbs.: Jared Gooden vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Jared Gooden (17-5) fell short against The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Mike Graves in a 2019 bid for Titan FC gold, then suffered a sub-minute knockout loss to future “Contender Series” hopeful Bruno Oliveira two fights later. “Nite Train” got back on track with three subsequent finishes, but failed to run down Alan Jouban in his UFC debut.
He has knocked out and submitted seven professional foes apiece.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov (15-3-1) — cousin of former UFC Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov — won his first five bouts under the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) / Professional Fighters League (PFL) banner before running afoul of Pavel Kusch in 2018. He’s 1-1-1 since, drawing with Bojan Velickovic and subsequently suffering a major upset submission loss to David Zawada in his last two efforts.
This marks his first appearance since Sept. 2019.
The last time Gooden had to deal with a top-notch wrestler, his takedown defense fell apart down the stretch as Graves refused to give him room to breathe. Though he has the advantage of three rounds instead of five here, it’s a problem that figures to rear its head again come Saturday. Underwhelming as he is compared to his cousin, Nurmagomedov’s excellent grappling fundamentals should be more than sufficient to ground Gooden early and often, and he’s more than willing to rack up long stretches of top control without overextending and putting himself in danger.
Gooden is certainly the more dangerous of the two on the feet and tends to be busy off of his back, so things could very easily go south for the Dagestani if the layoff hurts his cardio. Still, he should be able to grind out a decision without too much issue.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
Related
Poster Drops For Biggest, Baddest UFC Rematch Ever!

205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight

This was supposed to happen a few weeks ago and I already had it written up, so here you go ...
Alonzo Menifield (9-2) needed just eight seconds to finish Dashawn Boatwright on “Contender Series” and earn himself a UFC contract on his second try. Though he started his UFC career strong with brutal knockouts of Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig, the latter of which earned him a “Performance of the Night” bonus, he subsequently came up short in upset losses to Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux.
None of his nine victories have lasted longer than 5:32.
The upset knockout for William Knight over Herdem Alacabek (9-1) in 2019 earned him a developmental contract, and though he lost to Tafon Nchukwi two fights later, an impressive finish of Cody Brundage in his return to “Contender Series” led to a UFC debut just three weeks later. There, he used effective top control to beat fellow series alum Aleksa Camur by unanimous decision in his first professional trip to the judges.
He gives up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Menifield.
There is a right way and a wrong way to fight Knight, and to my eternal frustration, everyone seems dead-set on going about it the wrong way. He’s actually quite limited on the feet and not much of an offensive wrestler, but opponents insist on trying to initiate the grappling with him, allowing him to reverse and unleash his genuinely scary ground-and-pound. All you have to do to beat this guy is ignore how jacked he is, avoid the leg kicks, and beat him up with punches the way Nchukwi did.
On paper, Menifield has the tools to do all that — the way he blew up two takedown-focused fighters in Moreira and Craig should give him plenty of confidence. At the same time, he struggled badly to deal with the fairly fragile Clark’s clinch aggression and seemed utterly flummoxed by St. Preux’s length, so he might not have the wherewithal to actually keep Knight off of him and fight smart. I say Knight wears him down against the fence before polishing him off late.
Prediction: Knight via third-round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! Miocic Rematches Ngannou In Vegas!

115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Hannah Goldy

Jessica Penne (12-5) — the former Invicta Atomweight champion — reached TUF 20 semifinals before running afoul of Carla Esparza, then edged out Randa Markos for a split decision victory in her debut. Three consecutive losses followed, after which United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) issues led to a nearly four-year layoff.
She’s ended eight professional fights by submission and will have a six-inch reach advantage.
A debut victory over Gillian Robertson kicked off a four-fight win streak for Hannah Goldy (5-1), who made it five with a one-sided decision over Kali Robbins on “Contender Series.” Number six proved elusive, as Miranda Granger defeated her in a striking battle upon “Queen of Sparta’s” arrival in the Octagon.
She fights for the first time since Aug. 2019.
In all honestly, Penne has one of the more forgivable 1-3 UFC records you’re likely to see. Two of those losses came to monsters in Joanna Jedrzecjzyk and Jessica Andrade, and the third was a bogus decision against Danielle Taylor. Still, it’s hard to have faith in her after so much time away, even considering how underwhelming Goldy looked in her debut.
If Penne executes well, threatening with her wrestling and keeping Goldy at the end of her considerable reach advantage, she’s more than capable of finally getting back on track. Between the rust and her poor luck with the judges, though, expect Goldy to land the heavier blows and eke out a decision.
Prediction: Goldy via split decision

[UncleChael]

What are you talking about here?

If Stipe weighs in at 230 like he did with Cormier, it's hard to take down the bigger man, if Ngannou is 265+ , he's in a different weight class and we seen how the Stylebender/Jan fight ended.. About Woodley.. Till, Thompson, and Lawler all tasted the T Wood bomb because they were afraid of the takedowns. He's got 5 UFC belts and Luque already has more losses than Woodley and Woodley is 38 years old. Try him when he's 50.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If Stipe weighs in at 230 like he did with Cormier, it's hard to take down the bigger man, if Ngannou is 265+ , he's in a different weight class and we seen how the Stylebender/Jan fight ended.. About Woodley.. Till, Thompson, and Lawler all tasted the T Wood bomb because they were afraid of the takedowns. He's got 5 UFC belts and Luque already has more losses than Woodley and Woodley is 38 years old. Try him when he's 50.

Ok I understand what you mean now but don't think it's super relevant.

Again, how many takedowns do you think Woodley has completed in the UFC? He might come from a wrestling background but offensive wrestling is NOT his main skillset in MMA. He uses his wrestling background to defend takedowns and keep fights standing.

[UncleChael]

The best striker on the card is the Suga Show

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ok I understand what you mean now but don't think it's super relevant.

Again, how many takedowns do you think Woodley has completed in the UFC? He might come from a wrestling background but offensive wrestling is NOT his main skillset in MMA. He uses his wrestling background to defend takedowns and keep fights standing.

Still waiting for you to answer my question Chael.

[UncleChael]

Still waiting for you to answer my question Chael.

http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/effd9de9937996f8

[Hugo de Naranja]

http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/effd9de9937996f8

The point is that he only has SIX takedowns in 15 UFC fights. You are hyping him up as a wrestler but the evidence shows that he isn't one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Half of those takedowns came in the Condit fight back in March 2014.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What fuckeryy will affect weigh-ins this morning?

[frankieunits2685]

What fuckeryy will affect weigh-ins this morning?

Less than 1 hour, lets see what happens.

[frankieunits2685]

Ok I understand what you mean now but don't think it's super relevant.

Again, how many takedowns do you think Woodley has completed in the UFC? He might come from a wrestling background but offensive wrestling is NOT his main skillset in MMA. He uses his wrestling background to defend takedowns and keep fights standing.

THIS THIS and THIS.

[unitedlad]

Isn't there only 10 fights confirmed at the moment? If there's even one more cancellation it will be an abomination of a PPV.

[PaperTrail07]

I mean it seems like FREE MONEY to me LOL......I honestly have not a seen a bet THIS EASY in a long time and am prepared to drop some coin on it...........-240 too much....Woodley is DONE......dont even think the KO factor applies anymore...

I very much think Luque will win, but too much of a favorite for me to want to bet it.

I'm 0-2 in my brief betting career, betting against Miocic. Will I be 0-3? I can't bet against Ngannou. But if he doesn't end it early and hasn't improved takedown defense, it's going to be a long 25+ minutes of waiting out that loss.

[PaperTrail07]

Stipe and Luque and smash bets IMO

[PaperTrail07]

They basically put Almeida on a golf Tee for Suga.....Suga will be bigger faster stronger....am I going wild -325....no.....bc I never do but it looks like a W....

I don't think O'Malley is a Tier 1 prospect and I bet Vera ML, SNA, and ITD against him. However, this is an excellent style matchup for him. He's in there against a guy with limited offensive wrestling, poor durability, and no striking defense who gets hit by a lot of kicks.

I can't be sure he won't roll an ankle again. If that happens, I'll take my L. In my opinion, things like that are pretty low percentage.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I mean it seems like FREE MONEY to me LOL......I honestly have not a seen a bet THIS EASY in a long time and am prepared to drop some coin on it...........-240 too much....Woodley is DONE......dont even think the KO factor applies anymore...

Careful throwing this term around. There's no such thing as Free Money in betting.

[magpie878]

Paper Trail coming in on FIRE early this afternoon...

[magpie878]

DraftKings has three odds boosts for MMA this weekend:

- Ngannou & O'Malley & Luque all to win at +275

- Miocic & Ngannou to end in round 1 at +180

- O'Malley to win by KO/TKO/DQ in the first round at +380

[PaperTrail07]

LOL I know -and I NEVER say it but man......my head just cant process a W for Woodley --people argue the KO shot....Luque has not been KO'd in his CAREER .....2009 as a pro here.. Luque just seems like a -400 to me.......Is anyone betting Woodley----that's the scary part...

Careful throwing this term around. There's no such thing as Free Money in betting.

[magpie878]

Stipe and Luque and smash bets IMO

Do you see any way that Stipe wins outside of a decision?

[Hugo de Naranja]

LOL I know -and I NEVER say it but man......my head just cant process a W for Woodley --people argue the KO shot....Luque has not been KO'd in his CAREER .....2009 as a pro here.. Luque just seems like a -400 to me.......Is anyone betting Woodley----that's the scary part...

Fair enough.