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Best bets for UFC 259: Adesanya vs. Blachowicz one of three title fights 👊
Best bets for UFC 259: Adesanya vs. Blachowicz one of three title fights
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Three title fights top off a monster fight card at UFC 259 on Saturday, but not all title fights are created equal. We'll see a wide range of championship matchups, from one featuring a 10-to-1 favorite all the way to a rare true title pick 'em.
Altogether, it's a 15-fight card containing betting odds mostly in the 2-to-1 range or less, and it includes eight fighters with title-fight experience. There should be something for everyone on this card.
Early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card is at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Light heavyweight title fight: Israel Adesanya (-230) vs. champion Jan Blachowicz (+190)
Tale Of The TapeIt's champ versus champ but with a 20-pound wild card. On paper, Adesanya and Blachowicz are closely matched, with similar metrics and strengths. Both men have precise striking and tend to outwork opponents on volume, despite a mediocre pace of activity. They have racked up plenty of knockdowns and suffered one or less in return. Both men have better strike avoidance than average and usually enjoy a range advantage to help with that (until now).
JAN BLACHOWICZ ISRAEL ADESANYA Last fight weight class Light heavyweight Middleweight Age 38 31 Height 74 76 Reach 78 80 Stance Orthodox Switch Analyzed minutes 178 136 Stand-up striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 6:1 11:0 Distance knockdown rate 3.3% 6.6% Head jab accuracy 34% 33% Head power accuracy 37% 35% Total stand-up strike ratio 1.3 1.2 Striking defense Total head strike defense 75% 76% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.19 0.02 Takedown accuracy 52% 0% Advances per takedown/top control 0.9 NA Opponent takedown attempts 38 52 Takedown defense 66% 87% Share of total ground time in control 36% 42% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.12 0.43
These performance metrics, however, were earned against very different competition. Blachowicz faced larger, stronger opponents, but they arguably have been slower (and older, on average). Many were aggressors who welcomed trading leather, and it was the power and durability of Blachowicz that eventually forced an ending. Adesanya, on the other hand, likes to put on a show. But when his opponents don't play along, his fights can take time to develop or stall out completely.
These factors suggest some feeling-out time to start things off. While Blachowicz is older and potentially more damaged, he might be more resilient against an opponent who is much lighter on fight night. However, he also knows that Adesanya, the middleweight champ who is moving up a division, will find his chin eventually. And could we see Adesanya's chin tested more dangerously than ever before? These are all real factors, and both fighters would be wise to be cautious while getting a feel for the speed and range of their opponent.
Another wild card is the ground game. We haven't seen either fighter initiate many takedowns, but both have attempted submissions when the fight goes there. The brute power of Blachowicz versus the transition speed of Adesanya is again a trade-off, should the two spend time clinching or on the ground.
These confounding factors make predicting the outcome difficult. The numbers alone would give Adesanya a reasonable edge, but he's the one moving into uncharted waters. As much as bettors want to take a side on the main event, sometimes it's better to look elsewhere for value.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Adesanya, as long as his price remains near -200 or better. Over 1.5 rounds.
Women's featherweight title fight: Champion Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs. Megan Anderson (+675)
Nunes will once again be the massive betting favorite in a title fight, her fourth consecutive time in that position. And once again, we're left looking for an angle that gives the challenger a chance to beat the women's GOAT.
On the feet, Nunes gets the technical advantages as the much more accurate and seasoned striker. The main edges Anderson possesses are her sheer size and strength, though it's not like Nunes hasn't faced physically strong opponents in the past, and height alone does not offer Anderson much advantage. Anderson has only one knockdown through five UFC appearances to date, so while her power is not insignificant, it's not a greater threat than anything Nunes has faced before.
On the ground, though Anderson does have submissions to her credit, Nunes will clearly have an advantage. The double champ forged her way into MMA via jiu-jitsu, and she has clearly shown an ability to finish on the mat. Should the fight end up on the ground, this will probably be the area of greatest contrast between them.
E+ recommends: Nunes is the pick, but her money-line odds offer little value except as a parlay booster. That assumes she's looking in shape at weigh-ins. Instead, consider a play on Nunes by submission at nearly +200.
Bantamweight title fight: Champion Petr Yan (-110) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-110)
The tightest odds among the three title bouts is the first on deck, as bantamweight champion Yan makes his first title defense against Sterling. It's a sharp contrast of styles, which will pair Yan's eagerness to stand in the pocket against Sterling's long-range striking that sets up his wrestling.
Yan opened as a mild favorite in a matchup that has flown under the radar given the hype behind the main event. But as the fight approaches, Sterling has edged his way to a pick 'em, and it's anyone's guess who will close as the favorite Saturday night.
It is, indeed, a close matchup. Their performance metrics are similar in terms of striking precision, but Sterling has superior defense and long-range kicks, while Yan has demonstrated power that is well above his division's average. Both fighters are likely aware of these differences, and there should be plenty of time figuring out the range on the feet to start things off.
Sterling will be the one trying to get the fight to the ground, and he'll have to get past Yan's 88% takedown defense to do so. But Sterling's fight strategy plays to his favor, using his long-range striking to walk opponents down, just waiting for a chance to change levels. Should he get the fight to the ground, Sterling's skill is keeping it there, often gaining back control.
For every takedown landed, Sterling spends over a minute and a half in control. That could mean he needs only one takedown to sway a round, and his submission game will also be a threat during that time. Sterling has more submission attempts (11) than anyone competing on the main card; only the veteran flyweight grapplers Joseph Benavidez (12) and Tim Elliott (14) on the undercard have more attempts heading into UFC 259.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Sterling at near even odds and fight starts Round 2.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Speaking of flyweight Tim Elliott (+105), you'll be able to get him at even odds or better against Jordan Espinosa (-125). Elliott has faced significantly tougher talent in the UFC so far, and he'll likely use his slick wrestling to control the fight.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Elliott at even or plus money.
For a parlay anchor, consider Islam Makhachev (-360) taking on Drew Dober (+280) on the main card. Though Dober is on a three-KO win streak, Makhachev has much better striking metrics and a dominant ground game.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Makhachev.
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Originally Posted by PaperTrail07
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