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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC is back in Las Vegas, just in time for the Super Bowl. Suddenly, 2021 feels almost normal for a minute. It's also a throwback fight card in other ways, featuring some familiar faces who have been competing at a high level for a decade or more. That includes veterans like Clay Guida, Michael Johnson, former champion Frankie Edgar, and persistent heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem in the main event.
Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight main event: Alistair Overeem (-185) vs. Alexander Volkov (+160)
Tale Of The TapeIt's going to be an important next two months for the heavyweight division, which will see the current champion, plus the top seven ranked contenders all facing off against each other. One would think that any of them might earn a title shot with a standout performance, but the entry of Jon Jones into the division complicates things. An immediate title shot for the former light heavyweight champ means the winners of these highly ranked matchups might now be two wins away from title contention. In this matchup, that could be demotivating for Overeem, who recently turned 40, and has spent the past few years on the cusp of a second UFC title shot. Waiting until 2022 for a title shot might be too much.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM ALEXANDER VOLKOV Last fight weight class Heavyweight Heavyweight Age 40 32 Height 76 79 Reach 80 80 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 196 121 Stand-up striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 10:8 2:2 Distance knockdown rate 5% 1% Head jab accuracy 57% 47% Head power accuracy 49% 50% Total stand-up strike ratio 0.6 1.5 Striking defense Total head strike defense 72% 75% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 96% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.2 0.1 Takedown accuracy 38% 70% Advances per takedown/top control 1.3 0.6 Opponent takedown attempts 31 55 Takedown defense 74% 65% Share of total ground time in control 78% 13% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.2 0.0
That's where Volkov could play spoiler to the higher-ranked Overeem. Volkov is a younger, fresher distance striker. More than eight years the junior of Overeem, Volkov could be more resilient. Volkov has become the most accurate power striker in the heavyweight division, surpassing (just slightly) Overeem on that metric. Should they trade, either could end the fight quickly. On just that, on paper, we'd have to give the edge in both aggression and durability to Volkov, making him more likely to win a mostly standing fight.
The wild card is Overeem's underestimated (or at least partly forgotten) ground game. We've seen him only occasionally commit to takedowns and threaten dangerous strikers on the mat, despite having earned numerous and diverse submissions in his earlier fights. Over such a long and active career, Overeem has probably forgotten more submissions than most heavyweight strikers have learned.
Overeem's veteran experience has also saved him from early danger many times -- an instinct for recovery that allows him to rally for a comeback finish. But again, the trajectory of Volkov doesn't indicate a fading heavyweight, nor one who will gas after a single attempt to overwhelm an opponent. Volkov seems only to be getting better. Both men are dangerous, but given affordable odds on the favorite, Volkov is worth a play.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Volkov under -200.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Among the favorites, a worthy one to back is Michael Johnson (-220) over Clay Guida (+180). Both men are on a losing streak, but these guys have combined for an epic 10 hours of Octagon fighting time, which is plenty to make conclusions about their performance tendencies. In stand-up, Johnson is by far the more accurate and aggressive striker, and he is a little less damaged compared to the older and more weathered Guida. However, Johnson is potentially susceptible to Guida's wrestling attacks. Should Johnson fail to stuff the inevitable takedowns and get pinned against the cage, that will cost him a round, and Guida has no shortage of cardio.
Whether the small cage of the APEX changes things, on paper at least, Johnson's takedown defense is above average, while Guida's takedown success rate is low. If Johnson can keep the fight standing for the majority of two rounds, he should strike his way to the decision. He just has to stay off his back.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Johnson. Take over 1.5 rounds for parlays.
For a potential upset (depending on where odds land), consider Beneil Dariush (+100) against Diego Ferreira (-120). Both men have competed in grappling, but the hands of Dariush are more dangerous than those of his older opponent. Assuming Dariush doesn't fall prey early to submissions, he should get the better of the stand-up. The takedown defense of Dariush appears stout enough to keep the fight where he wants it. There's also more finishing potential in this pairing than in a typical lightweight matchup.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Dariush near even, or plus money.
An interesting caveat to predicting MMA matchups is potentially more pronounced during the pandemic. A fighter literally looking different on the scale than in prior fights has long been a sharp angle to exploit in the fight game. In such a competitive one-on-one sport, just a small difference in fitness and strength can be enough to flip a fight outcome from expectation. Yet not all fighters have the same accessibility to training and preparation under regional government ordinances, or even personal decisions. So, the guidance of paying attention to the appearance of fighters and looking for warning signs of an altered condition remains wise.
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