[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ABC 3:00 pm ET
Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Li Jingliang
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Joaquin Buckley
Punahele Soriano vs. Dusko Todorovic

ESPN+ 12:00 pm ET
Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese
Carlos Felipe vs. Justin Tafa
Ramazan Emeev vs. David Zawada
Vanessa Melo vs Sarah Moras
Jacob Kilburn vs. Austin Lingo

[frankieunits2685]

Thanks, Lock. First UFC card on ABC.

[PaperTrail07]

I wasn't sure when....but the buckley fade is getting fired quicker than I thought LOL.................

[JIBBBY]

Leaning Kattar in the main. I think he beats up Max.

[PaperTrail07]

I agree--Kattar is less hittable....

Leaning Kattar in the main. I think he beats up Max.

[Thrilla]

ABC?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah weird.

Never knew Amanda Bobby Cooper owned a television network.

[Thrilla]

ABC?

Is UFC's debut on ABC that big of a deal?

Why the UFC airing on ABC is a bigger deal than when it was on FOX

[Thrilla]

[Sanity Check]

I think Calvin Kattar has better boxing than Max Holloway.

If Kattar loses it might be on him not letting his hands go & being beat on volume.


Like he did when he fought Zabit.

Never knew Amanda Bobby Cooper owned a television network.

She got married.

Her name is Amanda Bobby Brundage now.

[frankieunits2685]

Everyone on Kattar-- interesting.

[PaperTrail07]

bACON AND Eggs For you West Coasters....... Knockouts and OJ....Hash Browns and Tapouts

[WolfTicketDealer]

I'd like to see afternoon cards become more of a thing. Nice when cards are done by 8 or 9 ET.

[Sanity Check]

Yas Island events start earlier.



Vegas events are late.

[hankcream]

Hopefully the main card has a bunch early finishes or else it's going to run up against NFL playoffs. I'll probably be at a bar in Green Bay and every television in the place will turn over to the Packer game at 3:00 cdt and I'll have to watch Holloway win on my phone

[WolfTicketDealer]

Main event is an interesting one to analyze. Think Kattar is the better boxer and he should have the cardio to last 5 rounds against Max's high output. Question is does he have an answer for leg kicks? Moicano and Zabit both had great success against Kattar. Max isnt a big kicker but we have seen him implement a kicking game in some spots.

[PaperTrail07]

Very "boxing" heavy card IMO.....Show them the MMA side !!!! ......

Thanks, Lock. First UFC card on ABC.

[PaperTrail07]

Alessio will be Buckleys toughest fight to date IMO....His back is to the wall and he can take a lot of damage..... Not a chance you can lay -260 on Buckley here......

[209 Life]

I like Kattar here, Will the line go above +135?

[WolfTicketDealer]

I like Kattar here, Will the line go above +135?

Completely speculating here but I'd guess that the line closes around +125 for Kattar.

[hankcream]

Alessio will be Buckleys toughest fight to date IMO....His back is to the wall and he can take a lot of damage..... Not a chance you can lay -260 on Buckley here......

I was thinking about fading Buckley too but not real high on Alessio. I almost fell asleep in his last fight against Cummings did he even land 10 shots the whole fight?

[Unkclan]

I think have to go kattar at plus odds. How motivated is holloway is he on his way down? Should be a good one regardless

[frankieunits2685]

I am leaning Holloway.

[kobejoshy]

My leans as of now are: Brown, Imavov and Emeev. I also think Ponzinibbio is getting somewhat a of setup and should be dominant. I am looking to fade Buckley too but not sure Alessio will grapple/grind him out given his recent form.

Anyone see any draftkings value on this card? The new draftkings scoring method favors fights like Khabib, Usman, Chimeav and other top-control wrestler grinders.

[hankcream]

Did the Akmekov vs Breese bout get canceled? I can’t get a line

[Hugo de Naranja]

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/1/1...sland-mma-news

[Hugo de Naranja]

Did the Akmekov vs Breese bout get canceled? I can’t get a line

Looks like it's been moved.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups -






265 lbs.: Carlos Felipe vs. Justin Tafa

Initially set to make his Octagon debut in 2017, Carlos Felipe’s (9-1) United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension delayed his Octagon arrival until last July, when he dropped a decision to Sergey Spivak. He entered his sophomore effort against Yorgan De Castro as an underdog, only to out-work the Cuban slugger for his first-ever Octagon victory.
He’ll have a one-inch reach advantage over Justin Tafa (4-1).
Tafa’s Octagon debut wasn’t the triumph he wanted, as he ran headlong into a vicious counter right from Yorgan De Castro two minutes into the first round. Things went a bit smoother against Juan Adams, whom Tafa demolished in rapid fashion.
All four of his professional wins have come by knockout in less than two rounds.
I really like this matchup, and not just because these are promising young guns in a division sorely in need of them. Both men impressed after rough Octagon starts and showed some real potential, Felipe with his gas tank and body attack and Tafa with his raw firepower. Of the two, I have to say I’m more impressed with Felipe, who looks sufficiently durable to drag Tafa into uncomfortably deep water and drown him once there.
Though Tafa could make it interesting if he utilizes takedowns the way he did before his Octagon run, but I like Felipe’s chin and motor to carry him to victory. So long as he avoids getting clipped in the first few minutes, he wears down Felipe for a late finish.
Prediction: Felipe via second-round technical knockout
Related
Official COVID-19 Safety Protocol For Fans Attending ‘Fight Island’

185 lbs.: David Zawada vs. Ramazan Emeev

David Zawada (17-5) — a sizable underdog — kicked off his Octagon career with a narrow Fight of the Night loss to Danny Roberts. Though he came up short against Li Jingliang his next time out, his return after nearly a year away saw him earn another bonus for his upset submission of Abubakar Nurmagomedov.
This will be his first fight in 14 months, as COVID-19 scrapped an April clash with Anthony Rocco Martin and an Oct. 2020 battle with Mounir Lazzez.
The three-fight UFC win streak for Ramazan Emeev (19-4) came to an end at the hands of Anthony Rocco Martin, who sprawled-and-brawled his way to victory in Moscow. He got back on track eight months later, defeating late-notice newcomer Niklas Stolze on “Fight Island.”
Though the shorter man by two inches, “Gorets” will enjoy a slight reach advantage.
As with all of Emeev’s opponents, Zawada’s chances of success rest entirely on his takedown defense. He landed more strikes against Li than Emeev did in his last two fights combined, so if he can keep it standing, he’ll handily out-work the Dagestani. Unfortunately, history suggests that Zawada won’t have much luck stopping Emeev’s wrestling attack, and he’s not likely finish Emeev off of his back like he did Nurmagomedov.
Sadly, the fight’s entertainment value and Emeev’s control of it will be inversely proportional, but as long as he keeps winning, he has no reason to change that. In short, he grinds out his fifth UFC decision in one-sided fashion.
Prediction: Emeev via unanimous decision
Related
No Way ‘Blessed’ Is Overlooking Kattar On ‘Fight Island’

135 lbs.: Sarah Moras vs. Vanessa Melo

These two were supposed to fight last year and I’d already written it up before it fell through, so I’ll be abusing copy/paste for this ...
Sarah Moras (6-6) battled her way to a semifinal finish on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, then emerged victorious in two of her first three Octagon appearances. “Cheesecake” is just 1-4 since, most recently falling to fellow TUF veteran Sijara Eubanks in May 2020.
Three of her five professional finishes have come by form of knockout.
Vanessa Melo (10-8) put a 5-5 professional start behind her to win five straight, ultimately joining UFC after a decision over veteran Jan Finney. She’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, going winless (0-3) against Irene Aldana, Tracy Cortez and Karol Rosa.
She gives up two inches of height and reach to Moras.
Even in a weight class as talent-starved as women’s Bantamweight, this looks like a loser-goes-home match up. Moras’ inability to support her submission prowess with competent wrestling and Melo’s lack of power or striking output have left them near the division’s bottom rung.
Moras will never have a number next to her name, but she should be too much for Melo. She’s got the stronger ground game of the two and even if Melo is potentially the better striker, she’s so lackadaisical in her approach that Moras can win on the feet through sheer activity. In the end, “Cheesecake” out-works “Miss Simpatia” to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Moras via unanimous decision
Related
UFC On ABC Debut Set For Jan. 16

145 lbs.: Jacob Kilburn vs. Austin Lingo

Though his “Contender Series” bid against Bobby Moffett proved unsuccessful, two more wins in Island Fights led Jacob Kilburn (8-3) to a late-notice Octagon debut in Dec. 2019. There, he faced Billy Quarantillo, who overpowered him on the mat en route to a second-round submission.
He has finished six opponents inside the distance, four via knockout.
Austin Lingo (7-1) entered UFC having stopped his previous three opponents in a combined 63 seconds, making him a decent-sized favorite over fellow newcomer Youssef Zalal. Instead “The Moroccan Devil” battled his way to a wide decision in his first of three 2020 victories. He gives up two inches of reach to Kilburn.
There’s some good news and some bad news for Kilburn. The good news is that the knockout-happy Lingo is unlikely to exploit his awful ground game the way Quarantillo and Moffett did. The bad news is that he’s still in for a bruising. “The Killer’s” willingness to trade doesn’t mesh terribly well with his kicking prowess, so despite his reach advantage, he’s likely to find himself trading heat with Lingo in the pocket; “Lights Out” won’t have to chase him down the way he did Zalal, and that means his power can shine.
Lingo just hits too damn hard for Kilburn’s standard approach to work. Even if Lingo didn’t learn anything from the Zalal debacle, he figures to clip Kilburn in the early going.
Prediction: Lingo via first-round technical knockout



185 lbs.: Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov

After several early-career struggles — including a knockout loss to Julian Marquez on “Contender Series” — Phil Hawes (9-2)finally punched his ticket to the Octagon with a 78-second wipeout of Khazhimurat Bestaev. His debut proved even more dominant, as “Megatron” flattened Aussie prospect Jacob Malkoun in just 18 seconds.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, seven of them by form of knockout.
A knockout of UFC veteran Jonathan Meunier sent Nassourdine Imavov (9-2) to “Contender Series,” but when that fell through, he instead signed on to debut in UFC against Jordan Williams in Oct. 2020. Despite Williams’ persistence, Imavov turned in a dominant striking performance to secure his sixth consecutive victory.
He’ll have two inches of height and five inches of reach on Hawes.
Imavov seriously impressed me against Williams, whom I’d tabbed as a potential headache due to his incredible resilience and relentless approach. Even acknowledging that I underestimated him, however, he looks like he’s in for some trouble against Hawes. Imavov can’t slow things down with takedown attempts when “Megatron” is the better wrestler and his defensive lapses looked poised to sink him against a counter-puncher of this caliber.
If Hawes is what he’s supposed to be, he should dispose of Imavov without too much hassle. Though Imavov’s length and scrambling skills could give Hawes issues if some of the latter’s bad habit crop up, expect Hawes to land a vicious counter right for another early finish.
Prediction: Hawes via first-round knockout
Related
UFC Applies With NSAC For Four February Events

135 lbs.: ** Yanan vs. Joselyne Edwards

** Yanan (11-3) bounced back from a debut loss to Gina Mazany, submitting Lauren Mueller a year later, defying considerable odds in the process. Then came the dangerous Mizuki Inoue, who narrowly edged out “Mulan” via split decision.
This will be her first fight in almost 17 months.
Joselyne Edwards (9-2) brought a seven-fight win streak into her LFA title fight against Sarah Alpar, only to wind up on the wrong end of a split decision. After 20 months on the shelf, she returned to action last July with a 28-second knockout victory.
She steps in for Bethe Correia, who required an emergency appendectomy, on little more than one week’s notice.
This could un-ironically turn out to be one of the better fights on this undercard, as both women are aggressive bruisers who won’t have to worry about the wrestling issues that have plagued them in the past. In other words, expect plenty of output over 15 minutes of action, culminating in a narrow ** victory.
** just figures to be more a seasoned and slightly crisper with her punches, which should give her an edge in the protracted exchanges this fight promises to offer. Plus, while Edwards has some nifty throws in the clinch, her poor positional skills on the ground mean she isn’t likely to secure much top control time from any successful takedowns. In the end, ** out-slugs her to even up her Octagon record.
Prediction: ** via unanimous decision
Related
Official COVID-19 Safety Protocol For Fans Attending ‘Fight Island’

185 lbs.: Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese

Two consecutive knockout losses gave way to a six-fight unbeaten streak for Omari Akhmedov (20-5-1), including a majority draw with Marvin Vettori and a decision over Ian Heinisch. His efforts earned him a spot in the rankings and a clash with former champion Chris Weidman, who out-lasted Akhmedov to end his streak in Aug. 2020.
He stands three inches shorter than Tom Breese (12-2) at 6’0.”
A litany of issues kept Breese out of action from May 2018 to Feb. 2020, when Brendan Allen beat him into submission in Norfolk, Virginia. Seven months later, he squared off against unbeaten prospect K.B. Bhullar, stopping him in 102 seconds to earn his third UFC “Performance of the Night” bonus.
He has tapped seven professional foes and knocked out another four.
Akhmedov genuinely fascinates me in an odd sort of way. Rather than fix the cardio issues that have plagued him for more than a half-decade, he’s turned the art of winning the first two rounds and surviving the inevitable comeback into an art form. Still, I’m not sure that’ll work out in his favor this time. That’s because Breese has him badly out-classed on the feet and boasts the grappling chops to survive on the ground until Akhmedov’s gas tank fails him.
Though Breese isn’t always the most reliable fighter, he’s too sharp and too powerful a striker for Akhmedov’s free-swinging offense to deal with once the latter tires too much to keep the grind going. In the end, Breese drops the first two rounds before pummeling a fading Akhmedov for the late finish.
Prediction: Breese via third-round technical knockout

[Thor4140]

Boy everyone likes Kattar. Better hope he knocks him out. This goes five expect a raw deal if you have Kattar. I agree he has the better hands and could give Max trouble. Max chin can make this go five

[Thor4140]

I just watched that Larkin Ponz fight. What a terrific fight. I cant see Ponz and Li going past 1 round but that long illness Ponz had may have made him a different fighter

[unlearn]

Condit vs Brown in a loser leaves town match in the co-main. Wouldve been a solid fight say 7 years ago

[JIBBBY]

Boy everyone likes Kattar. Better hope he knocks him out. This goes five expect a raw deal if you have Kattar. I agree he has the better hands and could give Max trouble. Max chin can make this go five

Kattar is tough. Very skilled. His stand up is better then Max IMO..

[JIBBBY]

Condit vs Brown in a loser leaves town match in the co-main. Wouldve been a solid fight say 7 years ago

Both should be fighting in Bellator today.. I think you gotta go with Condit on points. He'll touch and move all fight. CC by decision is my best guess.

[unlearn]

Both should be fighting in Bellator today.. I think you gotta go with Condit on points. He'll touch and move all fight. CC by decision is my best guess.

Already on it. Condit dec+225. Not much else I liked early. Maybe Holloway/Kattar GTD

[hankcream]

I like Holloway hoping for the line to come down, Max used more leg kicks in the 2nd Volkanowski fight and that may be important to keep Kattar off guard. Plus Kattar has a jacked up nose from being busted up previously and he seems to paw at it whenever he gets hit, if Max tags him in the face I think it could be a problem.