Best bets for UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

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It's a champion vs. No. 1 contender matchup for the flyweight title, with an interesting twist that both men competed (and won with a finish) just last month on the very same card. It's absolutely the fight to make in this division right now, despite the fact that the market has very different perceptions of each fighter.


Early prelims are at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+. The main card starts at 10 p.m. on PPV.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Flyweight title fight: Champion Deiveson Figueiredo (-300) vs. No. 1 Brandon Moreno (+250)


Tale Of The Tape

DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO BRANDON MORENO
Last fight weight class Flyweight Flyweight
Age 33 27
Height 65 67
Reach 68 70
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Analyzed minutes 88 111
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 8:0 2:1
Distance knockdown rate 12.7% 1.4%
Head jab accuracy 37% 23%
Head power accuracy 40% 28%
Total stand-up strike ratio 0.7 1.0
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 66% 72%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.37 0.40
Takedown accuracy 50% 41%
Advances per takedown/top control 1.3 0.4
Opponent takedown attempts 34 33
Takedown defense 62% 70%
Share of total ground time in control 57% 73%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.74 0.17
The incumbent champion has been favored in the majority of his appearances, and this will be his third straight title defense as a heavy favorite. Figueiredo has gone 9-1 in the UFC, rewarding backers all but once as a betting favorite. Meanwhile, Moreno has the been the underdog in the majority of his appearances, going 6-2-1 in the UFC so far. Both men have positive return-on-investment careers, but Moreno arguably has been undervalued more often.


We're starting with the baseline acceptance that the current champ is on an epic sprint, owning four wins and four finishes over the past 14 months. And as such a heavy favorite, the simple question is whether the challenger has any clear path to victory.


Neither fighter has been finished in his career, and both have finished the majority of their opponents to date. Unstoppable forces and immovable objects. But between them, Figueiredo is the greater finishing threat. He has the best knockdown rate in the division and attempts far more frequent submissions than Moreno. So, if this fight ends early, it's likely due to Figueiredo living up to his reputation as the division's best finisher ever.


And what if he doesn't get that early finish? That's where things get interesting. Moreno averages double the pace of activity while standing compared to Figueiredo. Furthermore, when fighting into the third round he still averages a pace significantly higher than Figueiredo. The champ does seem to pick up pace as fights wear on, but without a finish or a knockdown, Moreno could steal rounds on the cards though activity in an otherwise close round.


Moreno's youth and durability, combined with a lengthy UFC career, suggest he should put up more of a fight than the market suggests. The numbers don't see him winning outright, but at such long odds, you're better off banking that he at least forces a few rounds in what is likely just his first title appearance.


E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. Instead, take a "fight starts Round 2" prop or over 2.5 rounds at plus money.
Best bets elsewhere on the card



To back a more affordable favorite, consider veteran lightweight Tony Ferguson (-165) in the co-main event. He's facing a dangerous finisher in Charles Oliveira (+145), and while they both have put together impressive win streaks in the UFC, Ferguson has faced the stiffer talent and larger opponents. This fight is also on the short list for fight of the night favorite.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Ferguson.


If you're hunting for an underdog, consider veteran Renato Moicano (+130) against relative newcomer Rafael Fiziev (-150). Fizviev is an skilled striker, but he hasn't been dominant to date in the UFC against lower-level talent. Moicano has faced champions and title-caliber fighters and also has a dangerous ground game to counter the standup threat.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Moicano.