1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC on ESPN+ 35: Waterson vs. Hill (September 12, 2020)



    ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
    Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill
    Ottman Azaitar vs. Khama Worthy
    Andrea Lee vs. Roxanne Modafferi
    Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez
    Kyle Nelson vs. Billy Quarantillo

    ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
    Tyson Nam vs. Matt Schnell
    Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks
    Matt Frevola vs. Roosevelt Roberts
    Alan Patrick vs. Bobby Green
    Frank Camacho vs. Brok Weaver
    Bryan Barberena vs. Anthony Ivy
    Justine Kish vs. Sabina Mazo



    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 09-09-20 at 04:04 PM.
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  2. #2
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Garbage card. Have 4 pre-bets but this is a tough one to have much motivation to research. At least NFL's on Sunday.
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  3. #3
    PaperTrail07
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    Glover/Santos would have made this legit----IMO this is a HUGE card for betting---
    I could lose a lot of $ here.....going LARGE on:
    Camacho,
    Slow Rod
    BB a solid play as well

    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Garbage card. Have 4 pre-bets but this is a tough one to have much motivation to research. At least NFL's on Sunday.
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  4. #4
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Glover/Santos would have made this legit----IMO this is a HUGE card for betting---
    I could lose a lot of $ here.....going LARGE on:
    Camacho,
    Slow Rod
    BB a solid play as well
    Personally have some concerns about Camacho's chin (which was great, but got cracked in his latest fight against Jaynes) and I don't want any part of Barberena as a big favorite (even against Ivy who is a lower level fighter). Liked and got Slow Rod around his opening line but don't think there's much value in the line at this point.
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  5. #5
    JIBBBY
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    5dimes is done.. No more copy and paste bets from Jibs on these UFC event threads..

    Copy and Paste doesn't work with mostly all my other books.. Very sad about 5dimes going down for American residents.. I was with Dimes years and years.. Great book for MMA props..

    Cash out now boys if you have a balance.. Accounts closing automatically on September 25th..

  6. #6
    PaperTrail07
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    Yeah pretty wild----they going LEGAL?
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    5dimes is done.. No more copy and paste bets from Jibs on these UFC event threads..

    Copy and Paste doesn't work with mostly all my other books.. Very sad about 5dimes going down for American residents.. I was with Dimes years and years.. Great book for MMA props..

    Cash out now boys if you have a balance.. Accounts closing automatically on September 25th..
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  7. #7
    PaperTrail07
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    This is a fight setup for Camacho to win....Weaver will not put out Frank-----BB could possibly eat Ivy's BEST shot even though he wont land it..should move forward and fold Ivy up.......Slo is 10 years younger and has twice the skills....night night Ed herman.,.....this will NOT go to the judges.........
    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Personally have some concerns about Camacho's chin (which was great, but got cracked in his latest fight against Jaynes) and I don't want any part of Barberena as a big favorite (even against Ivy who is a lower level fighter). Liked and got Slow Rod around his opening line but don't think there's much value in the line at this point.
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  8. #8
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Yeah pretty wild----they going LEGAL?
    Not sure what Dimes is doing, just know they are shutting out American accounts..

    Gonna be pounding BetDSI, Bookmaker, Bovada, Mybookiee and Betonline harder now.. Not the end of the world I guess...

  9. #9
    PaperTrail07
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    For sure-They are preparing to get a license for US Legal states bc eventually its all going that way.....they have probably seen the accounts dry up from the legal states and they see their eventual doom-----smart move i'm sure......
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Not sure what Dimes is doing, just know they are shutting out American accounts..

    Gonna be pounding BetDSI, Bookmaker, Bovada, Mybookiee and Betonline harder now.. Not the end of the world I guess...
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  10. #10
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    5dimes is done.. No more copy and paste bets from Jibs on these UFC event threads..

    Copy and Paste doesn't work with mostly all my other books.. Very sad about 5dimes going down for American residents.. I was with Dimes years and years.. Great book for MMA props..

    Cash out now boys if you have a balance.. Accounts closing automatically on September 25th..
    I absolutely hated 5dimes, I used them a few years ago and it was the most difficult process to withdraw my money. I never went back. I'm not surprised they are pulling out of the USA, I've heard and experienced a ton of bad things from that book.

  11. #11
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by frankieunits2685 View Post
    I absolutely hated 5dimes, I used them a few years ago and it was the most difficult process to withdraw my money. I never went back. I'm not surprised they are pulling out of the USA, I've heard and experienced a ton of bad things from that book.
    I had been with Dimes for probably 10 years. I never had any problems with Bitcoin withdraws from Dimes.. Their limit for withdraws were higher then any other book but that was ok with me..

    I just really like the large variety and range of MMA props that they offered on these fights. I will miss that.. Many books don't even let you parlay up the MMA props like Dimes did.

    What ever time to move on..

  12. #12
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I had been with Dimes for probably 10 years. I never had any problems with Bitcoin withdraws from Dimes.. Their limit for withdraws were higher then any other book but that was ok with me..

    I just really like the large variety and range of MMA props that they offered on these fights. I will miss that.. Many books don't even let you parlay up the MMA props like Dimes did.

    What ever time to move on..
    I've never used Bitcoin before, so Im not familiar with that at all. I just remember it was a huge pain to get my money.

  13. #13
    PaperTrail07
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    NOBODY has their prop selections-but they were also scamming thieves in other ways
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I had been with Dimes for probably 10 years. I never had any problems with Bitcoin withdraws from Dimes.. Their limit for withdraws were higher then any other book but that was ok with me..

    I just really like the large variety and range of MMA props that they offered on these fights. I will miss that.. Many books don't even let you parlay up the MMA props like Dimes did.

    What ever time to move on..
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  14. #14
    PaperTrail07
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    Whoa! I cant even imagine NOT using it.....
    Quote Originally Posted by frankieunits2685 View Post
    I've never used Bitcoin before, so Im not familiar with that at all. I just remember it was a huge pain to get my money.
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  15. #15
    magpie878
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    I like that just 2-3 fights ago, Worthy was a +10000 dog and won (OK, exaggeration but huge dog), and quickly turned into a favorite. I don't know his opponent, but Worthy has looked good overall.

    I'm leaning Hill in main event. She could (should?) have won that last match with Gadelha.

    Slo looked great last match, quick turnaround. Might repeat again with a another big win.

  16. #16
    PaperTrail07
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    Agree with Hill---Oh when his training buddy smith took a fall for him LOL....jkj k....
    Quote Originally Posted by magpie878 View Post
    I like that just 2-3 fights ago, Worthy was a +10000 dog and won (OK, exaggeration but huge dog), and quickly turned into a favorite. I don't know his opponent, but Worthy has looked good overall.

    I'm leaning Hill in main event. She could (should?) have won that last match with Gadelha.

    Slo looked great last match, quick turnaround. Might repeat again with a another big win.
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  17. #17
    magpie878
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Agree with Hill---Oh when his training buddy smith took a fall for him LOL....jkj k....
    CORRECT!


  18. #18
    HurlSweatPants
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    Like waterson here also sprinkling on a draw.

    5dimes was my go to for a long time also, Bitcoin was definitely is/was the way to go with them. Other payouts took forever.

    RIP 5d

  19. #19
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    This is a fight setup for Camacho to win....Weaver will not put out Frank-----BB could possibly eat Ivy's BEST shot even though he wont land it..should move forward and fold Ivy up.......Slo is 10 years younger and has twice the skills....night night Ed herman.,.....this will NOT go to the judges.........
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mma...12/ar-BB17L2PJ

    Just something to be aware of if you're backing Barberena. I do think this is a winnable fight but it's hard for me to see any value in BB at -260 or worse.
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  20. #20
    hankcream
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    2 early picks: Matt Schnell -102, Hill -125
    waiting for weigh in's for more

    On a prop play going to play Justine Kish shit's her pants again when I find a line. Hoping for + money Kish

  21. #21
    frankieunits2685
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    Camacho is our Saturday night. Tested positive for Covid.

  22. #22
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by frankieunits2685 View Post
    Camacho is our Saturday night. Tested positive for Covid.
    It looks like, Jalin Turner will fill in and take on Weaver.

  23. #23
    PaperTrail07
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    SMH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO god dammit
    Quote Originally Posted by frankieunits2685 View Post
    It looks like, Jalin Turner will fill in and take on Weaver.
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  24. #24
    PaperTrail07
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    Man.....little shook off that news
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  25. #25
    magpie878
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    Is this main event a 5-rounder?

  26. #26
    frankieunits2685
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    Turner should get the job done against Weaver.

  27. #27
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by magpie878 View Post
    Is this main event a 5-rounder?
    yes

  28. #28
    magpie878
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    Thanks.

    Waterson's last six have all gone the distance (3-3)

    Hill's last two were decision, the previous two were stoppages, and the two before that were decisions (4-2).


    DraftKings: Go the distance: Yes -278 No +200

  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    Prelims - mmamania 1 and 2 -




    155 lbs.: Roosevelt Roberts vs. Matt Frevola

    Roosevelt Roberts (10-2) rode the momentum of his successful “Contender Series” bout to win four of his first five Octagon fights, earning “Performance of the Night” for his guillotine finish of Darrell Horcher. Jim Miller proved trickier than expected, however, and handed Roberts the first stoppage loss of his career via second-round armbar.
    His eight professional finishes are split 5/3 between submissions and knockouts.
    The submission victory for Matt Frevola (8-1-1) on “Contender Series” failed to produce immediate UFC success, as Polo Reyes knocked him flat in 60 seconds. “Steamrolla” went on to go 2-0-1 in his next three, all fights in which he entered as the underdog.
    Though five inches shorter than Roberts, he gives up just two inches of reach.
    Between Roberts’ height, reach, boxing advantage, and killer guillotine, I see this being a fairly comfortable night for him. Frevola lacks the sheer physicality that Vinc Pichel used to overwhelm “The Predator” or the sort of submission prowess to trouble him on the mat the way Miller did. He’s outclassed at range, technically inferior on the inside, and can’t implement his wrestling with the threat of Roberts’ aforementioned guillotine.
    Frevola’s best chance lies in making this a truly ugly slog of a fight, but Roberts just has too many advantages to make that battleplan feasible. Whether through a club-and-sub or in response to a takedown, Roberts snatches up his neck before too long.
    Prediction: Roberts via first-round submission
    Related
    On Deck! Waterson Battles Hill In Vegas!

    155 lbs.: Alan Patrick vs. Bobby Green

    Brazil’s Alan Patrick (15-2) worked his way up the Lightweight ladder with wins in five of his first six Octagon appearances, the sole loss coming to destructive finisher Mairbek Taisumov. His success wasn’t to last, as -320 odds failed to carry him past Scott Holtzman at UFC 229.
    This will mark the first fight for “Nuguette” in nearly two years.
    Though he entered 2020 on a 1-4-1 skid, Bobby Green’s (26-10-1) year has proven fruitful. After taking out Clay Guida in June, he returned just six weeks later to avenge his 2017 draw with Lando Vannata, scoring “Fight of the Night” in the process.
    He replaces the injured “Kazula” Vargas on less than two weeks’ notice.
    Patrick is 100 percent reliant on being able to take down his opponent regularly. Indeed, though tall and rangy for the division, the Holtzman fight showed that he’s still lost on the feet, and he’s never landed more than 40 significant strikes in a 15-minute fight. Green — who shut down another straightforward grinder in Clay Guida — has all the tools necessary to recreate Holtzman’s efforts and demolish “Nuguette” in the stand up while defusing his wrestling.
    “King” is just too difficult for Patrick to hold down and too adept with his boxing to be thrown off by the Brazilian’s offbeat, low-output offense. Green steadily takes him apart for his first Octagon finish in almost seven years.
    Prediction: Green via third-round technical knockout
    Related
    Complete List Of COVID-19 Cases In UFC

    125 lbs.: Justine Kish vs. Sabina Mazo

    Though The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) run for Justine Kish (6-2) was cut short, she started strong in the Octagon with controversial decisions over Nina Ansaroff and Ashley Yoder. While losses to Felice Herrig and Ji Yeon Kim followed, she got back in track in January by upsetting Lucie Pudilova.
    She gives up two inches of height and five inches of reach to Sabina Mazo (8-1).
    “Colombian Queen” entered the Octagon with some serious momentum thanks to an impressive LFA run, but fell short against Maryna Moroz in her March 2019 debut. She found more success in her next two bouts, dominating Shana Dobson and taking a narrow decision over J.J. Aldrich at UFC 246.
    Both of her professional knockout wins came by first-round head kick.
    If there was ever a hype train for Justine Kish, it’s left the station at this point. Her technical deficiencies have become painfully apparent, especially on the ground, and she isn’t even particularly devastating in her ostensible wheelhouse. There just isn’t much she can offer here against a lengthier and more technically savvy striker outside of the blanketing top control she employed against Ansaroff, and her takedowns look insufficient to bring that to bear.
    So long as Mazo maintains range and doesn’t get complacent in the clinch, she’ll take apart Kish as the latter fruitlessly struggles to close distance. When the dust settles, “Colombian Queen” makes it 3-1 in the Octagon with a dominant decision.
    Prediction: Mazo via unanimous decision
    Related
    Waterson Vs Hill Promoted To UFC Vegas 10 Main Event

    135 lbs.: Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks

    Julia Avila (8-1) entered the Octagon on the heels of consecutive knockout wins, and though she failed to put Pannie Kianzad away in her debut, she nonetheless walked away with a clean decision victory. “Raging Panda” returned to her finishing ways in June, pounding out Gina Mazany in just 22 seconds.
    She was slated to rematch Nicco Montano this past Saturday before the former Flyweight champ tested positive for COVID-19 (details).
    Sijara Eubanks’ (5-4) move from 125 to 135 pounds failed to pay immediate dividends, as she dropped consecutive decisions to Aspen Ladd and Bethe Correia. She got back on track in May, taking a wide decision over TUF vet Sarah Moras.
    She was slated to face Karol Rosa this past weekend before the Brazilian withdrew on weigh-in day.
    I expected Eubanks to have all sorts of issues with Karol Rosa thanks to the latter’s takedown defense and ridiculous striking output. Avila isn’t quite as busy on the feet, but she’s similarly adept at staying there and boasts some of the division’s heaviest hands. “Sarj” is in just as much trouble as before, with the added potential of serious head trauma.
    While Eubanks could feasibly grind out a decision from top control, Avila’s cardio keeps her dangerous throughout the fight, while Eubanks has been known to fade. What success Eubanks finds will come early, and as her jiu-jitsu pedigree has failed to translate to MMA submission finishes, she’s unlikely to put away Avila before the latter starts to take over. In the end, Avila batters her in the latter two rounds for either a wide decision or late stoppage.
    Prediction: Avila via unanimous decision



    125 lbs.: Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam

    Things didn’t get much better for Matt Schnell after his submission loss to Tim Elliott on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), suffering stoppage defeats to Rob Font and Hector Sandoval in his first two Octagon appearances. Undaunted, he went on to win four straight and pick up a “Performance of the Night” bonus before running afoul of division standout Alexandre Pantoja in Dec. 2019.
    Nine of his professional wins have come by submission.
    Seven years after his breakout knockout of Eduardo Dantas, Tyson Nam (19-11-1) finally entered the Octagon, only to lose consecutive decisions to Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. With his back against the wall, he faced kickboxing veteran Zarrukh Adashev in June and flattened him in just 32 seconds, improving his recent record to 7-3-1.
    He faces a 4.5-inch reach disadvantage.
    I’ve consistently underestimated Schnell during his Octagon tenure, particularly the potency of his ground game. That said, this looks like an extremely toxic match up for him. In addition to being extremely difficult to take down and entirely free of submission losses in more than 30 professional fights, Nam’s one of the hardest punchers in the division, and Schnell’s shaky chin is well-documented. It would only take one clean right hand for Nam to end Schnell’s night, and his defensive grappling should give him plenty of opportunities to land it.
    As with any Nam fight, though, he has to overcome his own passivity if he wants the wants the win. Many of Nam’s struggles result from his unwillingness to let his hands go, making it very possible that Schnell simply outworks him for a decision. Considering the countering opportunities Schnell will present and the fact that even a glancing blow should be enough, I’m willing to pick the Hawaiian anyway. Ultimately, he lamps Schnell before too long.
    Prediction: Nam via first-round knockout
    Related
    On Deck! Waterson Battles Hill In Vegas!

    155 lbs.: Frank Camacho vs. Brok Weaver

    It’s been a rough few years for Guam’s Frank Camacho (22-9), who started his Octagon career with three consecutive “Fight of the Night” awards. He currently finds himself in a 1-4 hole, three of those losses coming by stoppage and the most recent one lasting just 41 seconds.
    “Crank” has knocked out 16 professional opponents and submitted three others.
    Brok Weaver (15-5) failed to find the finish, but his upset decision over Devin Smyth on “Contender Series” was enough to earn him a UFC contract. After a disqualification win in his debut, he took on fellow series veteran Roosevelt Roberts in May, ultimately tapping to a rear-naked choke for his first loss since 2016.
    “Chata Tuska” stands two inches taller than Camacho at 6’0.”
    Camacho has definitely hit the point of diminishing returns for his brawling style. His only win since 2017 came against Nick Hein, who insists on neglecting his judo prowess in favor of trying to slug it out with Lobov-esque arms. Weaver can absolutely hang with him in a firefight, boasting faster, cleaner hands and more proven durability.
    “The Crank” will need to lean on his ground game if he wants do dig his way out of the hole in which he’s found himself, and that actually might be a feasible strategy. That’s because Weaver’s generally decent defensive wrestling is offset by his willingness to jump guard on guillotines, which won’t work against a jiu-jitsu player this experienced. Still, if the Geoff Neal debacle wasn’t enough to turn Camacho off of brawling, I’m not sure what will. He tries to trade hands and gets leveled in the opening minutes.
    Prediction: Weaver via first-round technical knockout
    Related
    Complete List Of COVID-19 Cases In UFC

    170 lbs.: Bryan Barberena vs. Anthony Ivy

    Bryan Barberena (14-7) made his name with three upset wins in his first four Octagon appearances, including a submission of Sage Northcutt and decision over the then-unbeaten Warlley Alves. He’s won just two of four since, his most recent losses coming by (technical) knockout against Vicente Luque and Randy Brown.
    “Bam Bam” will give up two inches of height and reach to “Aquaman.”
    San Antonio’s Anthony Ivy (8-3) brought a five-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, which featured two successful defenses of the Fury FC Welterweight belt and a win over Willis Black for the WXC title. His accomplishments were enough to make him a favorite, only for Christian Aguilera to batter him into submission in just 59 seconds.
    All of his wins have come inside the distance, five of them by form of knockout.
    I knew going into the Aguilera fight that Ivy was profoundly uncomfortable on the feet, but I expected him to at least try a takedown before Aguilera got a chance to open up. He’d better go all-in on his wrestling this time, as Barberena’s relentless aggression is the perfect means with which to exploit Ivy’s tendency to shell up under pressure.
    If Ivy manages to secure top control early and often, he could conceivably grind out a decision, as “Bam Bam” has not historically been difficult to take down. Between Barberena’s persistence and power, though, expect him to land a blow telling enough to make Ivy wilt and follow up for the finish.
    Prediction: Barberena via first-round technical knockout

  30. #30
    hankcream
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    Romanov -280, waiting for a line for Romanov to win 1st round & pound it

  31. #31
    hankcream
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    Damn, Nam vs Shnell cancelled

  32. #32
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Damn, Nam vs Shnell cancelled
    Figures. With that and the Frevola-Roberts fight being scrapped, just went from four pre-bets to two. Might just skip this one until the "main card".
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  33. #33
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Romanov -280, waiting for a line for Romanov to win 1st round & pound it
    I'm still waiting too. Odd, the first 3 fights at betrivers have no props. First time that I've seen this.

  34. #34
    wlulaxer
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    Hugo, great job last night on the Bellator card. You playing this one tonight? I know you weren’t crazy about this UFC card

  35. #35
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 947
    Betpoints: 3239

    Really liking Avila ITD, more I watch Eubanks the more I notice her gas tank decreases significantly after the first. Avila by sub late in round 2 is my prediction.

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