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UFC on ESPN 15: Munhoz vs. Edgar (August 22, 2020)
ESPN 8:30 pm ET
Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield
Marcin Prachnio vs. Mike Rodriguez
Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Takashi Sato
ESPN+ 5:30 pm ET
Mizuki Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos
Austin Hubbard vs. Joe Solecki
Jared Gooden vs. Dwight Grant
Ike Villanueva vs. Jorge Gonzalez
Carlton Minus vs. Matthew Semelsberger
Timur Valiev vs. Mark Striegl
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the grind never stops
Agree for a small play on OSP but I don't see any value in Edgar. 38 years old, declining chin moving down in weight against a very durable, hard hitting Munhoz who has a great guillotine.Originally Posted by agendaman
OSP vs. Menifield! I am HYPED for this fight!
MMA MANIA Prelims -
205 lbs.: Ike Villanueva vs. Jorge Gonzalez
Ike Villanueva (16-10) — a former Middleweight — knocked out Roger Narvaez for the Fury FC Light Heavyweight title and defended it by stopping another UFC veteran in Rashad Coulter. Moving up to 265 pounds for his debut proved ill-advised, as he suffered a knockout loss to Chase Sherman this past May.
He’s scored 13 professional wins by form of knockout.
Jorge Gonzalez (16-4) enters the cage this Saturday with wins in seven of his last eight, all of them by first-round stoppage and one coming over UFC veteran Kenneth Bergh. He was slated to debut against Kenneth Bergh in July, only for Bergh to fail his weight cut and withdraw one day before fight night.
He’ll have an inch of height and three inches of reach on “Hurricane.”
Gonzalez is nowhere near as screwed as he would have been against Bergh, as Villanueva lacks the wrestling and submission skills “Ymir” could have used to great effect. That said, I still expect the Mexican slugger to start his Octagon career on a loss. Villanueva’s hand speed, combinations, and counter-punching all look well-suited to punishing Gonzalez’s free-swinging offense.
While the UFC newcomer definitely hits hard enough to end Villanueva’s night early, as several others have in the past, there’s such a massive technical gulf between them that the “puncher’s chance” isn’t statistically significant. Now that he’s in his proper weight class, Villanueva quickly overpowers him on the feet.
Prediction: Villanueva via first-round technical knockout
Related
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135 lbs.: Timur Valiev vs. Mark Striegl
Timur Valiev (16-2) — whose only loss since his pro debut was a controversial one to Chris Gutierrez — defeated Max Coga and Bekbulat Magomedov to secure a spot in the PFL 2018 playoffs. Though injury kept him from going further, he went on to knock out Giovanni da Silva and take a decision over Taigro Costa last year.
He saw a planned Aug. 1, 2020, debut against Jamall Emmers collapse because of **** issues.
Mark Striegl (18-2) initially made his name in PXC and ONE Championships, becoming a fixture on the SEA scene. The last few years have seen him ply his craft in Filipino promotion URCC, where he won their Featherweight title in 2019 and defended it with a “No Contest” against one-time UFC competitor Shunichi Shimizu.
“Mugen” has tapped 14 professional opponents, eight of them via rear-naked choke.
Striegl’s stand up has improved remarkably since his upset loss to Reece McLaren in 2015; his wrestling is still the star of his game, but he’s no longer lost on the feet. Unfortunately for him, Valiev’s high-octane offense still has him thoroughly outclassed there, and the Dagestani’s terrific balance and scrambling skills make it highly unlikely that Striegl’s top control and submissions will play a part.
It’s also worth noting that as far as I can tell, Striegl hasn’t cut to 135 pounds since that McLaren defeat, which saw him gas partway through the second. Against an extremely active and mobile striker who won’t let him take breaks on top, that’s the nail in an already sunk coffin. Valiev run circles around him to claim an increasingly dominant victory.
Prediction: Valiev via unanimous decision
Related
Pic! Official Poster Drops For Edgar’s Move To Bantamweight
170 lbs.: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Carlton Minus
Matthew Semelsberger (6-2) went 5-2 as an amateur before making his debut in 2017, starting his pro career 3-2. “Semi” has since won three straight, including a split decision in CFFC and a first-round knockout of veteran Rich Patishnok in February.
Four of his professional wins, including three of his last four, have come by form of knockout.
Carlton Minus (10-1) spent nearly the entirety of his pro career in Alaska FC before stepping up on short notice to face Rick Story in PFL’s 2018 season. Though he succumbed to “The Horror’s” wrestling and submission skills, he successfully returned to his usual stomping grounds with a decision win in February.
He steps in for Philip Rowe on just over a week’s notice.
Luckily for Minus, the wrestling issues that Story mercilessly exploited shouldn’t play a factor here because Semelsberger is a willing, aggressive slugger who’ll happily engage Minus on the feet and lose in the process. Though “Semi” has some pop, he’ll have all kinds of trouble getting through Minus’ spear of a jab and his tendency to go all-in when closing the distance leaves him vulnerable to counters.
Minus isn’t the hardest man to hit, so Semelsberger could find the mark with a game-changing blow, but the latter is far more likely to eat potshots all night. “Clutch” leans on his sharper offensive boxing to claim victory in his Octagon debut.
Prediction: Minus via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson
Mariya Agapova (9-1) put her unsuccessful “Contender Series” appearance behind her with an impressive run in Invicta, which saw her stop both of her opponents in less than one round apiece. She was similarly dominant in her June Octagon debut, dropping and choking out late replacement Hannah Cifers.
She has knocked out three opponents and submitted four others.
Shana Dobson (3-4) rebounded from a The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 defeat to Roxanne Modafferi by knocking out castmate Ariel Beck on the Finale. She’s yet to taste victory since, losing decisions to Lauren Mueller and Sabina Mazo before suffering a 40-second knockout defeat to Priscila Cachoeira.
She’ll have an inch of reach on her Kazakh foe.
I can’t blame UFC for taking things slow with Agapova; however, even though clearly talented and full of potential, she’s still quite green at 23 years old. Even by those standards, however, Dobson is a light touch. That’s because the Lloyd Irvin-trained product lacks the wrestling to exploit Agapova’s shaky takedown defense or the craft to keep from getting simply out-hustled and out-muscled in striking exchanges. It’s hard to have faith in someone who just got demolished by the division’s biggest meme.
While she won’t have the frankly ludicrous size advantage she enjoyed against Cifers, Agapova’s aggression and power should carry her to a comfortable victory. It’s less a question of whether she’ll beat Dobson than whether she’ll end it inside the distance.
Prediction: Agapova via second-round technical knockout
Related
Pic! Official Poster Drops For Edgar’s Move To Bantamweight
155 lbs.: Austin Hubbard vs. Joe Solecki
Austin Hubbard (12-4) has spent the majority of his UFC career in the deep end, facing and falling to Davi Ramos and Mark O. Madsen alongside a win over Kyle Prepolec. “Thud” came up big two months ago, however, forcing top prospect Max Rohskopf to quit in the corner after two grueling rounds.
He is the taller man by one inch and will have a slight reach advantage.
Joe Solecki (9-2) made the most of his July “Contender Series” opportunity, choking out James Wallace and earning a UFC contract wasn’t there. Though he was unable to get the finish in his debut five months later, he turned in a dominant performance against Matt Wiman to sweep the scorecards.
Four of his six submission wins have come by rear naked choke.
Unfortunately for me, I deleted the full prediction I’d written for Hubbard-Solecki when they were booked to fight in June — it would have saved me some time, as my view hasn’t changed. Solecki has the wrestling and submission skills to recreate Rohskopf’s early success without the worry of critical cardio failure.
Hubbard’s best chance lies in wearing down Solecki with a persistent striking attack, but what stand up edge he might have is insufficient to bridge the gulf between them on the ground and Solecki is seasoned enough to not collapse if the early success doesn’t last. Without the power to put Solecki down in one shot or the takedown defense to keep Solecki’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu out of the equation, it’ll be a long night for “Thud.”
In short, Solecki racks up long stretches of top control to claim victory.
Prediction: Solecki via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Dwight Grant vs. Jared Gooden
After knocking out Tyler Hill to earn a contract on “Contender Series,” Dwight Grant (10-2) dropped a narrow split decision to Zak Ottow for his first loss since 2011. He entered the UFC win column with a bonus-winning knockout of Carlo Pedersoli, then followed that up two months later by edging out Alan Jouban in another split decision.
He fights for the first time in 16 months.
Jared Gooden (17-4) saw a six-fight win streak give way to a 1-2 skid, one of those losses coming to UFC veteran Mike Graves in a bid for the Titan FC title. He has since won three straight, all by stoppage within two rounds.
He’s knocked out and submitted seven opponents apiece.
It’s actually somewhat impressive how few punches Grant has actually landed during his time in the Octagon. Though he did smash up Pedersoli during their round of combat, he combined for just 63 significant strikes in six rounds against Ottow and Jouban. It doesn’t help that despite being called “The Body Snatcher,” he disgraces the legacy of Mike McCallum by barely ever targeting the midsection, which presents a much easier target.
Luckily for him, Gooden is there to be hit. A combination of poor range management, nonexistent head movement, and a tendency to just knuckle down and throw when caught on the fence leave him extremely vulnerable to punchers of Grant’s caliber. As long as Grant is willing to let his hands go and force Gooden back, he should crush him in the opening few minutes.
Prediction: Grant via first-round knockout
Have a 5u max bet on an underdog for this card.
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Gotta fade Frankie Edgar as his best fighting days are behind him.. Probably gets KO'd again.. He's fighting a guy 5 years younger with KO power.. ITD prop at -125 for me..
5 round fight also.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pedro-Munhoz-52407
So sick of seeing Edgar on these cards, his fights are boring AF these days
does anyone remember the card several years ago where 10 of 12 fights the underdog won? what card was that?
So many cards every year hard to remember even that Locky..
I forget the card but I remember it vividly!
A few more main card write ups.. MMA MANIA..
Light Heavyweight: Marcin Prachnio vs. Mike Rodriguez
Best Win for Prachnio? Gilberto Galvao For Rodriguez? Adam Milstead
Current Streak: Prachnio has lost both of his UFC bouts via knockout, whereas Rodrgiuez came up short last time out
X-Factor: Prachnio’s recklessness
How these two match up: I’ll be honest, I kind of assumed these two were no longer on the roster.
Prachnio is a Kyokushin karate specialist, and he knocked out some very talented fighters in One Championship. I don’t know what happened when he jumped shipped to the Octagon, as Prachnio has rushed into sloppy exchanges and paid the price. Getting knocked out by Sam Alvey does not excite fans about one’s potential ...
As for Rodriguez, the “Contender Series” product has yet to find consistent success, as he currently sports a 1-2 (1) record inside the promotion. “Slow” is a deceptively explosive striker, one who tends to time counter punches rather well.
I do not like trying to pick this fight. It is not fun. On one hand, Prachnio has faced and defeated a much higher level of competition. In defense of his losses, Alvey’s counter right hook is deadly, and Magomed Ankalaev is the division’s best prospect. Rodriguez is definitely a step back from the latter.
He was just so sloppy, though.
On the whole, I like what I’ve seen better from Rodriguez. His technique has been cleaner, but he’s also been fighting a lower level of opponent, which has to be considered.
Ultimately, Prachnio is the more proven hitter, and it’s not like Rodriguez is really a defensive master. Just because a fight can go either way, doesn’t mean it’s likely to last long ...
Prediction: Prachnio via knockout
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Welterweight: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Takashi Sato
Best Win for Rodriguez? Tim Means For Sato? Ben Saunders
Current Streak: Rodriguez has won two straight inside the Octagon and seven total, while Sato returned to the win column last time out.
X-Factor: which fighter can set the pace?
How these two match up: Once more, we have a clash of knockout artists.
Rodriguez carries seriously heavy power in his hands. In his debut opposite Means, Rodriguez really impressed from his back foot, timing Means straight punches with simultaneous looping power shots and getting his head off line. His second fight was a better sloppier, but he still got the job done and threw some heat.
It’s still tough to get a read on Sato. He’s clearly a pretty skilled striker, but the two men he knocked out in UFC were not amazingly high-level. His loss, on the other hand, came to Belal Muhammad, who is very arguably a top 10 Welterweight.
Major difference in competition, major difference in result.
This is likely to be a very competitive fight between skilled strikers. Rodriguez is seemingly the more durable man, but Sato has a speed advantage. Rodriguez could time him coming in, but barring a perfect counter connection, I like Sato’s punch and pull game to draw out his opponent’s counters and land further punches.
Sato’s jab-pull-jab cross lands at some point and ends this one.
Prediction: Sato via knockout
Related
Predictions! UFC On ESPN 15 Undercard Preview - Pt. 1
Predictions! UFC On ESPN 15 Undercard Preview - Pt. 2
Women’s Strawweight: Amanda Lemos vs. Mizuki Inoue
Best Win for Lemos? Miranda Granger For Inoue? Yanan **
Current Streak: Lemos scored her first UFC victory last time out, while Inoue did the same to extend her win streak to two
X-Factor: Can the former Bantamweight out-muscle her opponent?
How these two match up: My man Patrick Stumberg has written about this fight prior to a previous booking and cancelation, is much more knowledgable about Invicta FC veterans than me, and came to the same conclusion regarding the prediction, so here’s his write up:
Lemos’ Octagon debut couldn’t have gone much worse for her, as a technical knockout loss to Leslie Smith was swiftly followed by a two-year suspension because of a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) violation. She dropped from 135 to 115 pounds for her return in Dec. 2019, which saw her choke out the favored Miranda Granger in less than four minutes.
She has knocked out five opponents and submitted another two.
Inoue entered the world’s largest fight promotion with wins in six of his previous seven fights, the only loss a split decision to Invicta standout Virna Jandiroba. In Aug. 2019, she made her long-awaited debut a successful one by taking a decision over Yanan ** in Shenzhen.
This will be her first fight in almost one year, as the coronavirus scrapped a planned March bout with Tecia Torres.
It’s hard to get an exact bead on Lemos when she’s only fought for four minutes in the last three years. She clearly does have skill, as demonstrated by her first-round success against Smith and successful grappling of Granger, but it remains to be seen whether she’s fixed her cardio. For her own sake, she’d better have — Inoue is a high-volume striker whose technical boxing looks equal to or better than Lemos’ own standup attack.
Inoue just seems to have at least a slight edge wherever the fight goes, whether it be her in-and-out striking or oft-underutilized submission skills. Unless Lemos has some unseen tricks up her sleeve, Inoue comfortably outworks her for a decision.
Prediction: Inoue via unanimous decision
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Does anyone think Edgar can win this fight? Edgar by decision?
opposite of both for 1000 please alex lol...
Agapova should cruise but Ill toss some on Dobson as well......bad blood and pushing 10:1 payout.....Mariya could be a star though
Kinda liking the over 1.5 myself for a small play.
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Bellator tonight---surprised no thread but I'm not starting it LOL.....
Think there is some value here...
Valentin Moldavsky wins inside distance (+280)
Vladim Nemkov wins by 5 round decision (+600)
Roy Nelson wins by 3 round decision (+1500)-small hedge ishh
Good luck PT! I’ll definitely be tuning into this one.
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TY sir-same.......I didn't dig in as far as their conditioning ect so nothing major here.....looking for some luck...the +280 is simply a -1000 ITD...god forbid Big Country gives up..........however he is fat and MIGHT go for a TD and lay and pray.....tossed small dec $ in as well......
The Ol' Kelton fade?
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matbe take a peek at this as well then....
Yes (Fight completes 1 full round)
+105
Fight to complete 1 full round=105
Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson
Rodriquez vs Grant might be interesting - liking Grant @ +185
Was gone all day. Only got back now. Otherwise would have made a bellator thread.
I'll guess Ovince St Preux.
Can anyone give me a reason not to put a max bet on Ike Villanueva especially at +$? I don't think Ike is UFC caliber, but if he can't knock the shit out of "The Beverly Hills Ninja" he better retire for good. If anyone is thinking of putting any money on Wright - go back and watch his contender series fight against Anthony Hernandez
amanda lamos ?
honestly....no no I cant.......Not sure who Wright paid off for another chance, he is total garbage -not sure how I overlooked this-good eye sir
smaller cage is no good for the ninja either...
been on bad run but here they are lol
Valiev ITD +190
Smells Even
Villan Even
D rod -200
Dobson Aga Goes 1 Round +105
Munhoz Parlays
Gl Everyone
BREAKING:
Co-main event is off. OSP has tested positive for Covid.
damn
smh-you test that many times your going to get a false positive.....who knows....damn
Doesn't hurt that he's on the under but plus money on a women's over 1.5 seems like a solid system play.
Hugo de Naranja gave THE_LOCKSMITH 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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