Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

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It's the final week of the UFC's campout at the APEX training center before they take a break and set a new camp on Fight Island, which is located on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.


The card will feature a lot of relatively fresh faces, but it will offer two top-5 lightweight veterans in the main event. The result could determine who is on deck for a title shot once the current interim-title situation gets sorted out.


Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Lightweight main event: No. 3 Dustin Poirier (-185) vs. No. 5 Dan Hooker (+165)


Tale Of The Tape

DAN HOOKER DUSTIN POIRIER
Last fight weight class Lightweight Lightweight
Age 30 31
Height 72 69
Reach 75 73
Stance Switch Southpaw
Analyzed minutes 138 242
Standup striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 7:1 11:2
Distance knockdown rate 4.1% 1.9
Head jab accuracy 38% 38%
Head power accuracy 38% 43%
Total standup strike ratio 1.0 1.1
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 63% 69%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.12 0.40
Takedown accuracy 29% 38%
Advances per takedown/top control 1.0 0.5
Opponent takedown attempts 57 57
Takedown defense 79% 61%
Share of total ground time in control 54% 54%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.19 0.40
These fighters have a wealth of experience in the featherweight and lightweight divisions, and they have only improved with age. They are still in the age window of peak performance, so the winner of the fight will be hoping for a title shot down the road.


Both men are rangy for their division and have demonstrated highly accurate offensive striking while maintaining decent pace during stand-up duels. Interestingly, they also show below-average head strike defense, meaning a barn burner could see both men finding success and receiving damage at various points. Those are favorable ingredients for a "Fight of the Night" candidate.


Both men are also tough, so we can't expect an early finish. But as the fight wears on, Poirier should get an edge in striking and begin to pour on the faster pace he favors. His slick transition and ground game could also create submission opportunities.


E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Poirier.
Other fight card values

If you're looking for an upset, consider the odd pairing at heavyweight kicking off the main card. Veteran Gian Villante (+185) will move up to heavyweight for the first time to take on the inexperienced TUF alumnus, Maurice Greene (-220). While both men are at risk of an early finish, Villante's experience gives him an edge should he survive the first few minutes, making an upset a real possibility.


E+ recommends: Money-line play on Villante.


The co-main event features two 28-year-olds but with very different fight experience levels. Mickey Gall (+250) gained notoriety by spoiling ex-wrestling performer CM Punk's UFC debut. But Gall's strength of schedule has been weak in the UFC, and he has mainly had success by early rear naked chokes against inexperienced talent. Mike Perry (-300), on the other hand, has shared the cage with a variety of top talent and has never been submitted by that choke. Perry should win this by forcing stand-up exchanges and getting the better of them.


E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Perry.