MMAMANIA.com prelim write ups and predictions. Part 1 and 2...
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265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishin
Marcin Tybura (18-6) emerged as a Heavyweight contender with consecutive victories over Viktor Pesta, Luis Henrique, and Andrei Arlovski, only to lose four of his next five. He managed to right the ship in February, taking a comfortable decision over Sergey Spivak in Norfolk.
“Tybur” is the taller man by one inch.
Maxim Grishin (30-7-2) has lost just once since 2011, amassing an 18-1-2 record and falling only to top prospect Magomed Ankalaev in that span. He’s recently cut his teeth in PFL, going 4-0-2 with a decision over UFC vet Jordan Johnson and a 48-second knockout of Mikhail Mokhnatkin.
He steps in for Alexander Romanov on a week’s notice.
It’s hard to think of a more dramatic opponent shift in recent memory than the one Tybura faces. Romanov is an absolute behemoth who specializes in power takedowns and top control, while Grishin is a natural Light Heavyweight who does his best work with adept kicks and a nasty right cross.
I still have “Tybur” winning, to be fair, but it’s definitely a dramatic left turn.
Though Grishin has some pop in his strikes and should enjoy a speed advantage, his arsenal doesn’t look sufficient to make up for the size disparity. The larger Tybura is a solid kickboxer in his own right and figures to test Grishin’s wrestling, which occasionally failed him against a natural Middleweight in Johnson. Tybura embarks on his first win streak in ages with a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Raulian Paiva vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Raulian Paiva (19-3) entered UFC on a 12-fight win streak, but stumbled out of the gate thanks to a narrow decision loss to Kai Kara-France and a gruesome cut stoppage against Rogerio Bontorin. He came up big with his back against the wall in February, though, flattening Mark De La Rosa with a right hand late in the second round.
He stands three inches taller than “Zhako” at 5’8.”
A five-round decision over Tyson Nam earned Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-3) a Fight Nights Global title shot against Team Nurmagomedov rep Tagir Ulanbekov, whom Zhumagulov narrowly edged by majority decision. Then came former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov, who likewise fell via close decision.
He has scored six professional wins by knockout and one via submission.
While I’m sure Zhumagulov will appreciate the chance to face a fellow striker after spending his last 50 minutes in the cage against suffocating wrestlers, Paiva looks poised to give him a rough welcome. The Kazakh oftentimes relies on explosive rushes to close the distance against rangier opposition, and that height difference looks like it’ll give him some issues, especially since Paiva is no stranger to the sort of high-octane firefight Zhumagulov prefers.
Paiva is also a fair bit crisper and tighter with his punches, which should allow him to exploit the openings Zhumagulov’s full-body swings leave behind. Zhumagulov could sway the judges with his output, constant leg attack and visually-appealing haymakers, but expect Paiva’s more telling blows to secure the decision.
Prediction: Paiva via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo
Karol Rosa (12-3) — a training partner for former UFC Strawweight champion Jessica Andrade — made her UFC debut on the heels of two consecutive third-round finishes. She made the most of the opportunity against unbeaten Nova Uniao-trained product Lara Procopio, ultimately landing over 170 significant strikes en route to a unanimous decision win.
Half of her professioanl wins have come by stoppage, four of them (technical) knockouts.
Less than two months after defeating Strikeforce vet Jan Finney, Vanessa Melo (10-7) stepped up on short notice to face Irene Aldana, ultimately dropping a decision to the Mexican bruiser. She again stepped up against Tracy Cortez shortly thereafter and again fell short on the scorecards.
“Miss Simpatia” gives up 2.5 inches of reach to Rosa.
Rosa impressed me against the very capable Procopio, whom I expected to remain undefeated. She has an easier task ahead of her in Melo; though Melo has some striking chops and counters well, she’s terribly inaccurate. Both Aldana and Cortez nearly lapped her in significant strikes landed, and Rosa, who landed a mind-boggling 11.40 strikes per minute against Procopio, looks poised to overwhelm her in similar fashion.
To make matters worse for Melo, her lack of stopping power means she can’t make up the difference with eye-catching blows. And if anyone’s scoring a knockdown or at least visibly hurting her opponent, it’s Rosa. In the end, power and volume win the day in a 15-minute striking battle.
Prediction: Rosa via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Martin Day vs. Davey Grant
Martin Day (9-3) bounced back from his unsuccessful “Contender Series” bid with three consecutive victories, setting up a debut against Chinese prospect Pingyuan Liu. Though Day kept it close in hostile territory, he ultimately lost his second decision in five fights.
Injuries and coronavirus delays make this his first fight since Nov. 2018.
Two submission wins and a scale fail on the part of Anthony Gutierrez sent Davey Grant (9-4) to the The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 Finale, where he tapped to a Chris Holdsworth rear-naked choke. Various misfortunes have held him to just four appearances since that 2013 defeat, the most recent of which saw him edge out Grigorii Popov in Nov. 2019.
All eight of his submission wins have come by form of choke.
This is isn’t the closest fight on the undercard odds-wise, but it’s the one I’m most conflicted about. Day’s key weakness — the thing that cost him on “Contender Series” and against Liu — is his grappling. Grant’s six takedowns against Popov showed that he is not at all shy about exploiting a shaky ground game, and Day’s habit of leading with naked kicks leaves him vulnerable to having them caught.
At the same time, Day rather thoroughly shut down Liu’s takedowns — the dangerous ground situations came about when Liu pulled guard on a guillotine and when he dropped Day with strikes. Plus, Day can keep that acrobatic attack going all night long, while Grant was absolutely exhausted after three rounds with Popov. Ultimately, though, I’m going to go with my initial instinct and pick Grant because he’s a better wrestler than Liu and Day just leaves too many openings for takedowns.
Prediction: Grant via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Jiri Prochazka
The unsuccessful title bid for Volkan Oezdemir (17-4) against Daniel Cormier kicked off a three-fight skid that saw him tap to an Anthony Smith rear-naked choke and drop a razor-thin decision to Dominick Reyes. “No Time” has since gotten back on track, knocking out Ilir Latifi and handing hot prospect Aleksandar Rakic the first loss of his Octagon career.
He stands two inches shorter than his foe at 6’2.”
The Czech Republic’s Jiri Prochazka (26-3-1) made his name in Rizin, where he’s amassed an 11-1 record in brutal fashion. He avenged a knockout loss to “King Mo” Lawal to win the promotion’s Light Heavyweight title in 2019, then flattened Fabio Maldonado and CB Dollaway in under two minutes apiece.
Twenty-three of his professional wins, including his last eight and 16 of his last 17, have come by form of knockout.
In the interest of full disclosure, I’ll admit that I’ve been a fan of Jiri’s since 2015 and was positively giddy when I heard he’d been signed. I’ll also admit that I’ve got a bad habit of underestimating Oezdemir. With all that on the table, here’s why Prochazka will win.
If Oezdemir has a standout weakness, it’s an occasional tendency to fade down the stretch, which is a bad problem to have against a man who boasts one of the deepest gas tanks in Light Heavyweight history. Prochazka pushes a pace higher than Oezdemir is comfortable with and has enough power, speed, and variety to hold his own in striking exchanges with a fresh “No Time.” Though “Denisa” has shown some vulnerability to low kicks in the past, I favor his avalanche of offense to wear Oezdemir down and secure a late finish.
Prediction: Prochazka via second-round technical knockout
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170 lbs.: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (22-6) put his narrow UFC debut loss to Nicolas Dalby behind him, embarking on a path of destruction through the Welterweight ranks, winning seven straight and earning three “Fight of the Night” bonuses in the process. A stoppage loss to Li Jingliang halted his rise last August, though he claimed a decision against Alexey Kunchenko this past March.
“Capoeira” will have three inches of reach on “The King of Kung Fu.”
Despite considerable hype and spinning kick knockouts of two UFC veterans under his belt, Muslim Salikhov’s (16-2) Octagon debut went sideways courtesy of an Alex Garcia rear-naked choke. Salikhov got back on track with knockouts of Ricky Rainey and Nordine Taleb, plus a wide decision over the surging Laureano Staropoli in Oct. 2019.
He has knocked out 11 professional opponents and submitted another three.
Zaleski’s recent fights with Li and Kunchenko — the latter of whom I thought he was quite fortunate to get the judges’ nod against — seemed to show the limits of his frantic onslaught against composed strikers. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, Salikhov more than fits that bill. Not only is Salikhov the superior technical kickboxer, he’s even got the edge in the spinning attacks Zaleski so enjoys.
Zaleski’s takedowns could throw a wrench in things, as they did against Kunchenko, but Salikhov’s shown some solid wrestling chops himself recently, taking Staropoli down three times. Salikhov keeps it standing, where he eventually capitalizes on Zaleski’s subpar boxing for a brutal finish.
Prediction: Salikhov via second-round technical knockout
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145 lbs.: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Danny Henry
Makwan Amirkhani (15-4) kicked off his Octagon career with two wins in a combined 1:49, ultimately coming out victorious in five of his first six appearances. “Mr. Finland” enjoyed a strong start against Shane Burgos in Nov. 2019, but ultimately succumbed to his foe’s power in the final minute of the third round.
Eight of his 10 professional submissions have come via choke.
Danny Henry (12-3) survived an early onslaught to upset Daniel Teymur in his Octagon debut, then scored an even larger upset by choking out Hakeem Dawodu in just 39 seconds his next time out. He couldn’t make it 3-0 against Dan Ige, whose immediate blitz netted the Hawaiian a 67-second tapout victory.
This will be his first fight in nearly 16 months.
Now this is a two-true-outcome fight if I’ve ever seen one. Henry’s fights with Teymur and Ige showed that he’s vulnerable to early aggression, which Amirkhani’s wrestling attack offers in spades. On the flip side, that Teymur fight proved that Henry can quickly become a nightmare to deal with if that initial onslaught fails to take him out, and watching a gassed Amirkhani get pummeled by Burgos should give “The Hatchet” confidence.
Henry has to survive to make that comeback happen, though, and Amirkhani’s got the submission skills to keep him from doing so. Amirkhani drags him to the mat and chokes him out before he can get his snowball going.
Prediction: Amirkhani via first-round submission
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155 lbs.: Leonardo Santos vs. Roman Bogatov
Leonardo Santos (17-3-1) — who turned 40 this past February — has yet to taste defeat inside the Octagon. He’s won five straight since drawing with Norman Parke, earning post-fight bonuses for his knockouts of Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray.
He fights for the first time since June 2019 and for just the second time since 2016.
When M-1 lightweight champion Damir Ismagulov joined UFC in 2010, Roman Bogatov (10-0) faced Rubenilton Pereira for the now-vacant belt, claiming it via grueling five-round decision. He successfully defended it with a submission of Michel Silva and an injury stoppage of UFC veteran Mickael Lebout last August.
He has earned five professional wins by submission.
On the one hand, Santos is 40 years old and painfully inactive. On the other, Bogatov looks tailor-made for him. The Russian relies extensively on his wrestling and smothering top control, which is a mighty dangerous game to play against someone with Santos’ Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. The stand up doesn’t look much safer for him, either — Bogatov is generally easy to hit and Santos has seemingly developed some stunning power lately.
Bogatov will have to bank on Santos’ age and rust catching up to him, which isn’t the worst plan in the world considering how exhausting the former’s takedown attack can be to deal with. Still, the likeliest outcome sees Santos either club-and-sub Bogatov or snatch up his neck on an ill-timed shot.
Prediction: Santos via first-round submission
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Originally Posted by Thor4140
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