[Hman]

Best bets for UFC Sao Paulo: Blachowicz vs. Souza

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)



The UFC is headed to Brazil before the fall break, yet, strangely, the fearsome Brazilian home cage isn't getting much respect from the early betting market.


Among three former Brazilian UFC and Strikeforce champions, only one is a betting favorite at home in Brazil. Brazilians are facing foreign fighters in nine matchups this week, but they're favored in only three of those, with three approximate pick 'ems and three Brazilians as underdogs. Of nine home cage fights, they're expected to win only 4.8, based on current odds.


Last week in Moscow, Russians were overwhelmingly the favorites in their home cage, but they came up short, winning only four of their 11 matchups. Maybe the matchmakers are finished doing favors for the Brazil fans, or the intimidation edge has finally run out. Or, perhaps, there's opportunity to back some home fighters.


Saturday's prelims from Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo begin at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. ET.


Here is where I see some betting value on the card.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Wednesday.

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Light heavyweight: No. 6 Jan Blachowicz (-200) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (+170)

Tale Of The Tape

	RONALDO SOUZA	JAN BLACHOWICZ
Last Fight Weight Class	Middleweight	Light heavyweight
Current Age	39	36
Height	73	74
Reach	74	78
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed Minutes	225	133
Standup striking offense
Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received)	5:3	3:1
Distance Knockdown Rate	2.4%	2.2%
Head Jab Accuracy	22%	34%
Head Power Accuracy	34%	40%
Total Standup Strike Ratio	0.6	1.2
Striking defense
Total Head Strike Defense	73%	75%
Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin")	98%	99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.60	0.29
Takedown Accuracy	40%	52%
Advances per Takedown/Top Control	1.2	0.9
Opponent Takedown Attempts	21	28
Takedown Defense	67%	54%
Share of Total Ground Time in Control	82%	36%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.36	0.12

With a submission game that altered every opponent's fight plan, Jacare Souza used to be one of the most feared fighters in the world. Now, riding a hit-or-miss streak and moving up to light heavyweight one month shy of his 40th birthday, he's no longer the lock he was during the first half of the decade.


On paper, Blachowicz has a clear striking advantage. He's longer, he's more accurate, and he averages a much busier pace while maintaining tighter defense. Souza, however, will own the ground game, assuming he can get it there. On one hand, Blachowicz has mediocre take-down defense and is untested in championship rounds. On the other, Jacare's offensive take-downs are also mediocre, and he'll be chasing an opponent much larger than he's used to facing.


Regardless of weight class, Souza would normally earn a slight lean in this matchup, assuming that he has five rounds to find a submission opening or edge three rounds of the five. But taking punches from a light heavyweight for the first time as he approaches 40 forces some skepticism. It's a 'dog or pass' situation for Souza, but he's worth a small play if returns +200 or more.


E+ recommends: pass

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Other fight card value

Lightweight: Charles Oliveira (-360) vs. Jared Gordon (+280)


Oliveira is currently the biggest favorite on the card. He's the UFC record-holder for submission wins, which is kind of bonkers considering he just turned 30 last month.


Oliveira will have a grappling advantage over Jared Gordon, and given the way Oliveira's striking has developed over the years, he could even get the edge on the feet. Regardless, even at steep odds, he's worth the juice, and he'll likely be in a lot of parlays come fight night. In his four UFC appearance in Brazil so far, he has four wins, all by submission.


E+ recommends: money-line play on Oliveira; lean on Oliveira inside the distance

[jjgold]

HMAN do you bet this stuff??