MMA MANIA PRELIM write ups -
125 lbs.: Sergio Pettis vs. Tyson Nam
Sergio Pettis (17-5) fought his way into Flyweight title contention with four consecutive victories, capped off by a decision over Brandon Moreno in “The Phenom’s” first-ever main event. He’s just 1-3 since that victory, though he did become the first man since 2009 to beat Joseph Benavidez in a non-title fight in that one victory.
He’s one inch shorter and nine years younger than Tyson Nam (16-9-1).
Hawaii’s Nam shocked the mixed martial arts (MMA) world back in 2012 with a one-punch knockout of Bellator champ Eduardo Dantas, only to lose his next four bouts. He’s found more success in his current run, which includes a draw with future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Yoni Sherbatov and a head kick knockout of former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
He steps in for the injured Alex Perez on little more than three weeks’ notice.
Pettis is fortunate that Perez had to withdraw. That’s because Nam, though a quality fighter, is nowhere near the stylistic nightmare the wrestling-heavy Perez was. “The Phenom’s” rock-solid striking fundamentals look like an excellent answer for the overly patient Nam, who has a habit of letting the striking stats get lopsided as he waits for a perfect countering opportunity.
Nam does have some real power when he bothers to swing and Pettis’ chin has failed him before, but Pettis is unlikely to give him the clear shots he needs to let his hands go. Expect Pettis to potshot and frustrate Nam, never really hurting him but racking up enough of a volume edge to take home a wide decision.
Prediction: Pettis via unanimous decision
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205 lbs.: Vinicius Moreira vs. Paul Craig
Vinicius Moreira (9-3) showed his toughness and grappling skill on “Contender Series: Brazil,” where he survived some early trouble to choke out Muay Thai specialist John Allan and earn himself a contract. Said toughness hasn’t quite held up in the Octagon, as “Mamute” suffered a pair of first-round knockout losses to Alonzo Menifield and Eryk Anders.
Neither he nor Paul Craig (11-4) have ever gone the distance, combining for 18 submission wins and two (technical) knockouts.
“Bearjew” followed up his claiming of the BAMMA Light Heavyweight title with a bonus-winning armbar of Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut. He’s since gone 2-4, though he did pick up two more bonuses via comeback submissions of Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu.
He’ll give up one inch of height to his Brazilian foe.
This should be a loser-goes-home match — Moreira is way too slow and hittable to bring his grappling to bear, while Craig’s striking and wrestling have yet to catch up to his submissions. Both need highly favorable match ups to make any sort of run in the Octagon and I’m not sure even the top-heavy UFC Light Heavyweight division has enough potential victims.
This, however, is a highly favorable match up for “Mamute.” Craig’s striking is … existent, which already gives him the edge on the feet, but his willingness to pull guard and the ease with which he’s taken down bode ill. Moreira’s the far larger man and his top control is scarier than Craig’s bottom game; therefore, he muscles Craig to the mat, wraps up a submission, and sets himself up to get knocked the hell out by his next UFC foe.
Prediction: Moreira via first-round submission
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135 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Bethe Correia
Sijara Eubanks (4-3) defied a low ranking on TUF 26 to smash her way through the competition, only to pull out of the Finale because of issues with the weight cut. She went on to beat Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi, missing weight against the latter, then fell once again to Aspen Ladd in her “Fight of the Night”-winning return to 135 pounds.
Both of her pre-UFC professional wins came by ground-and-pound technical knockout.
It’s been four years since Bethe Correia’s (10-4-1) unsuccessful title bid against Ronda Rousey, and the Brazilian has fought just five times in that span. Her last three fights have seen her battle Marion Reneau to a draw, suffer a head kick knockout loss to Holly Holm in her second main event, and tap to an Irene Aldana armbar after ending a nearly two-year hiatus.
“The Pitbull” is one inch taller than Eubanks, but will give up three inches of reach.
Correia has won one (1) fight in the last five years, and that was a robbery against Jessica Eye. She did much better than I expected against Aldana last time out, but at 36 years old, I think we’re past the point of her being a threat in the division ... being a decent brawler isn’t enough in the modern UFC.
“Pitbull” doesn’t have enough power to slow down Eubanks’ pressure and she faces a considerable disparity in wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, giving her few avenues of victories. Though I can see her possibly outlasting Eubanks if the latter doesn’t pace herself, there’s not enough going her way to bank on that hypothetical. Eubanks walks her down and racks up long stretches of top control for the win.
Prediction: Eubanks via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Marcos Mariano
Claudio Puelles (8-2), representing Team Chuck Liddell, won three bouts on TUF: “Latin America 3” before falling to Martin Bravo at the Finale. He entered his subsequent bout with Felipe Silva as a sizeable underdog, only to score an improbably comeback kneebar to earn “Performance of the Night.”
This will be his first fight in 16 months because of injury.
Marcos Mariano (6-5) — who opened his professional career 2-3 — won four of his next five before joining UFC in February. He debuted against the all-action Lando Vannata in Melbourne, tapping to a kimura late in the first round.
He stands three inches taller than Puelles and will have a four-inch reach advantage.
It really speaks to how much UFC loves Lando Vannata that they signed a guy for the express purpose of losing to the “Groovy” one. Mariano’s height is literally the only notable thing about him; otherwise, he’s an okay striker with no ground game to speak of.
Puelles is no world-beater himself, but he’s a very capable grappler with considerably more experience against competent opposition. Once he lands his first takedown, it’s only a matter of time. He sends Mariano back to the Brazilian circuit with a quick rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Puelles via first-round submission
135 lbs.: Jose Quinonez vs. Carlos Huachin
The runner-up on the inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” series, Jose Quinonez (7-3) rebounded from his debut loss to win four in a row and set up a clash with fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood last March. The step-up proved too much for “El Teco,” who tapped to a rear-naked choke midway through the second round.
This will be the first time since 2014 that he has competed twice in a calendar year.
Carlos Huachin (10-4-1) — riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak — answered the call when Raoni Barcelos lost his UFC 237 opponent in May. “El Perro Malo” started strong on the feet, but ultimately succumbed to the Brazilian’s ground-and-pound.
He has scored nine first-round finishes as a professional, eight of them via knockout.
It’s hard to get a bead on where exactly Quinonez stands in the Bantamweight division. That’s because as nice as a four-fight win streak looks on paper, none of the men he beat wound up with winning records in the Octagon. He looked badly outclassed against Wood, who’s essentially the only quality opponent we have to measure him against since “El Teco’s” loss to Alejandro Perez at TUF Finale.
Huachin is a serious threat on the feet who’s burdened with substandard takedown defense. Even with the aforementioned concerns I have about Quinonez, that wrestling deficiency is too juicy a target for me to pick against him. Regular top control carries him to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Quinonez via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Polo Reyes vs. Kyle Nelson
The 4-1 UFC start Polo Reyes (8-6) start saw him score three post-fight bonuses thanks to two first-round knockouts and a 2016 “Fight of the Year” candidate against Dong Hyun Ma. He has since suffered consecutive (technical) knockout losses to Damir Hadzovic and Drew Dober, prompting a drop to Featherweight for this bout.
All but two of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Kyle Nelson (12-3) stepped up in weight to challenge Diego Ferreira in his late-notice Octagon debut, wherein he managed to sting the Lightweight contender before suffering a (technical) knockout loss in the second. “The Monster” returned to 145 pounds against Matt Sayles, tapping to an arm triangle after spending a while attached to “Robo’s” back.
He’ll have one inch of height and three inches of reach on his foe.
I feel like a lot of fighters see dropping in weight as a panacea for whatever ails them. Reyes’ problem wasn’t being too small, it was his shoddy defense against both takedowns and strikes. Nelson’s fight with Sayles suggests he can exploit at least one of those, as he found considerable grappling success before running out of steam.
If he can do that to Sayles, he can do it to Reyes.
“El Toro’s” heinous punching power makes him a threat to anyone, and he could very well leverage his size advantage into some early sprawls. After watching him struggle with Hadzovic’s grappling, which has consistently failed the Bosnian in the Octagon, I can’t have faith in it. Nelson survives an early scare to take the back and either choke (or pound out) the Mexican slugger.
Prediction: Nelson via second-round submission
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115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Angela Hill (9-7) went from unsuccessful TUF alum to Invicta champion after leaving the UFC in 2014, claiming and once defending the promotion’s Strawweight belt. She has gone 3-5 in her second Octagon run, most recently dropping a decision to the surging Xiaonan Yan at UFC 238.
“Overkill” stands an inch taller than Carnelossi at 5’3.”
Ariane Carnelossi (12-1) has not tasted defeat since her professional debut against future UFC competitor Amanda Ribas, finding success in multiple Brazilian promotions. She won a one-night tournament last November, then knocked out fellow once-beaten Ketlen Souza last May for her third finish in five fights.
“Sorriso” has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted one other.
Carnelossi is powerful and entertaining, but she’s the sort of foe Hill really should be able to beat. “Overkill” is the better striking technician and ostensibly won’t have to worry about takedowns; plus, unlike the Yan and Cortney Casey fights, Hill won’t be facing height and reach disadvantages. Outside of Carnelossi’s power, Hill figures to hold the edge most everywhere.
That said, she’s underperformed in the past, and Carnelossi is dogged enough to potentially take a decision through volume and aggression. Without a physical disparity to work through, though, Hill figures to exploit Carnelossi’s limited footwork and take a decision behind her jab and movement.
Prediction: Hill via unanimous decision
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 124-76-1