MMA MANIA prelim write ups -
155 lbs.: Devonte Smith vs. Khama Worthy
Devonte Smith (10-1) scored his fourth consecutive stoppage win on “Contender Series” last August, pummeling Joseph Lowry to claim a UFC contract. His Octagon career has seen him knockout Julian Erosa and Dong Hyun Ma in just 4:49 combined, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.”
Six of his nine knockout wins have come in the first round.
Worthy (12-6) saw a six fight winning streak give way to a 2-4 skid, but has since bounced back to win three straight. The current run includes two of just four career trips to the judges, with six of his other victories coming by (T)KO.
“The Deathstar” replaces Clay Collard, who himself replaced
I couldn’t find any footage of Worthy from the last four years that wasn’t behind a paywall, but there’s not a lot going for him here. Three of his five knockout losses came in a combined 3:19 and he showed zero striking defense against Matt Bessette in his most recent defeat. Unless he’s made a 100% overhaul of his game and somehow reinforced his chin, Smith’s going to knock his block off.
Worthy’s potential improvement and willingness to throw leather could make this interesting, but odds are that Smith poleaxes him inside three minutes.
Prediction: Smith via first-round knockout
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135 lbs.: Raphael Assuncao vs. Cory Sandhagen
After suffering a knockout loss to Erik Koch in his Octagon debut, Raphael Assuncao (27-6) put together an 11-1 streak from 2011 to 2019, beating the likes of T.J. Dillashaw, Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes, among others, along the way. His efforts earned him a No. 1 title contender eliminator rematch against Moraes, who dropped him in the early going and put him away with a guillotine choke midway through the first round.
He faces a six-inch height disadvantage and a 3.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Cory Sandhagen (11-1) survived a gruesome armbar to pound out Iuri Alcantara in his second UFC effort, then inflicted an armbar of his own on Mario Bautista five months later for his third finish in the Octagon. This led to a clash with all-action slugger John Lineker, whom Sandhagen controlled with distance strikes en route to a decision victory.
He had not gone the distance in victory since 2016.
For my money, this is the most stylistically intriguing fight on the undercard, pitting Assuncao’s patient, potent counters against Sandhagen’s brutal, devil-may-care offense. It’s the best kind of pick-‘em, close enough to keep things interesting, but not so close that they’re liable to get gun-shy and stink out the joint.
I’ll admit to flip-flopping a bit on this one — Assuncao presents a stiff test for Sandhagen’s offense, but getting cracked by Moraes last time out is worrying, especially considering Sandhagen’s considerable reach advantage. Even with the X-factor of Assuncao’s wrestling, I say Sandhagen outworks Assuncao and powers through enough counters to claim a narrow win.
Prediction: Sandhagen via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Manny Bermudez vs. Casey Kenney
Manny Bermudez (14-0) racked up nine first-round finishes on his way to the Octagon, six of them in less than two minutes apiece. “The Bermudez Triangle” has enjoyed similar success in UFC itself, scoring a trio of submissions and walking away with a post-fight bonus for his 59-second triangle finish of Davey Grant.
He’s submitted 11 professional opponents and knocked out one other.
Casey Kenney (12-1-1) went 1-1 on “Contender Series,” fighting twice in the span of two months, before returning to LFA, where he claimed the interim Bantamweight title with a knockout of Vince Cachero. Eight days after that victory, he stepped up on short notice to defeat Ray Borg by split decision.
He is three inches shorter than Bermudez and will give up 3.5 inches of reach.
Win or lose, Kenney looks to be Bermudez’s biggest headache to date. He’s the stronger wrestler of the two and ostensibly has the submission defense to avoid Bermudez’s quick-kill finishes. This fight will give us a good idea of whether Bermudez’s style can win him a decision in the Octagon.
I don’t think so, at least not against Kenney.
Kenney’s skilled enough to scramble with Ray Borg and looks to have fixed the cardio issues that led to his defeat on the Contender Series. The last time Bermudez went the distance, he had to be saved by the judges via robbery against Saul Almeida. Kenney’s takedowns, scrambling and clinch skills carry him to victory.
Prediction: Kenney via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Drakkar Klose vs. Christos Giagos
The upset decision win for Drakkar Klose (10-1) over Marc Diakiese in his second UFC bout cemented his status as one to watch, only for the surging David Teymur to hand him his first professional loss five months later.
He returned with another upset of Lando Vannata, then narrowly edged Bobby Green in Milwaukee in Dec. 2018.
He’ll give up one inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach to “The Spartan.”
Christos Giagos (17-7) initially washed out of UFC on a 1-3 skid, but answered the call to face Charles Oliveira after winning four of five on the regional and Russian circuits. Though he fell victim to “Do Bronx’s” infamous submission game, he enters the cage on the heels of consecutive victories over Mizuto Hirota and Damir Hadzovic.
Seven of his 10 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Klose is a strange sort — it’s like he alternates between being forgettable and being a quality prospect from fight to fight. He absolutely did not deserve the decision against Green, but absolutely dominated Lando Vannata in the previous fight. Though he can’t seem to blend his striking and wrestling, his aggression and raw power make him a problem for everyone.
Giagos included.
Giagos’ takedown defense has proven insufficient in the past, and even if Klose isn’t the most adept wrestler, he’s physically strong enough to grind it out in the clinch. Between that and his thudding leg kicks limiting Giagos’ explosiveness, I say Klose muscles his way to a close victory.
Prediction: Klose via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Hannah Cifers vs. Jodie Esquibel
A five-fight win streak that featured four knockouts brought Hannah Cifers (9-3) to the Octagon in Nov. 2018, where she fell to blue-chip prospect Maycee Barber via second-round technical knockout. She returned to action five months later to upset jiu-jitsu ace Polyana Viana by split decision at UFC 235.
All but one of her five (technical) knockout victories have come in the first round.
Jodie Esquibel (6-5) lost a split decision to Ashley Yoder in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 and fell to Alexa Grasso in her return to the Invicta cage, but came back to edge veteran DeAnna Bennett her next time out. She’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, going 0-3 over a two-year stretch.
She stands two inches taller than the 5’1” “Shockwave.”
Esquibel has had three UFC fights to show anything besides grit and decent takedown defense. Instead, she’s absorbed more than 350 strikes. It’s like all you need to beat her is above-average stand up, and Cifers certainly fits the bill.
Cifers can win this almost purely on the strength of her right cross, and the power she can put behind it bodes ill for the ever-hittable Esquibel. Power punching secures Cifers her second UFC victory.
Prediction: Cifers via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Brandon Davis
Kyung Ho Kang (15-8) opened his UFC career 2-1 (1 NC) before undergoing his mandatory military service in his native Korea. He returned to action 3.5 years later with a submission of Guido Cannetti, then tapped Teruto Ishihara after a narrow loss to Ricardo Ramos.
“Mr. Perfect” has submitted 11 professional foes.
Brandon Davis (10-5) dazzled on the Contender Series with an entertaining decision over Austin Arnett, but struggled to maintain that momentum in the Octagon, going 1-3. This past March, he faced heavy-handed Joe Lauzon protege Randy Costa and survived a wild start to hand the latter his first career loss.
His six professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Davis is ballsy, tough as nails, and hits plenty hard. He also struggles profoundly with grapplers — Enrique Barzola alone dragged him down 10 times, and the hulking Kang looks like he’s got the goods to exploit that weakness yet again. Davis simply cannot handle the Korean veteran on the ground, and though he’s not the type to be mentally broken by a few takedowns, it’ll be hard for him to get anything going on the feet with the threat of them dangling over his head.
All that said, Kang can get too brawl-happy for his own good, and if he’s reticent to bring his excellent grappling to bear, I can easily see him humoring Davis for too long and dropping a decision. He’s just got too big an edge on the mat for me to pick against him. We get a few minutes of fun brawling before Kang drags him down and forces a tap.
Prediction: Kang via first-round submission
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125 lbs.: Sabina Mazo vs. Shana Dobson
The four-fight LFA career of Sabina Mazo (6-1) saw her score a pair of highlight-reel head kicks, claim the promotion’s Flyweight title, and successfully defend it with a decision over Carol Yariwaki in Nov. 2018. Despite the strong run, she came up short against UFC veteran Maryna Moroz in her promotional debut in March.
She stands an inch taller than Shana Dobson (3-2) but faces a one-inch reach disadvantage.
Dobson’s TUF 26 run ended 97 seconds into the opening round courtesy of Roxanne Modafferi’s ground-and-pound. She successfully debuted in the Octagon with a knockout of Ariel Beck, but fell short against Lauren Mueller four months later.
This will be her first fight in 16 months after injury scrapped a November bout with Yanan **.
I won’t pretend I wasn’t disappointed in Mazo’s performance against Moroz, but she’s still got potential. I expect her to do quite a bit better against Dobson; while “Danger” offers the sort of pressure that Mazo dislikes, “The Colombian Queen” is the better technical striker and won’t have to worry too much about takedowns.
It’ll come down to Dobson’s one-shot power against Mazo’s versatile offense, and I favor the latter. Expect the 22-year-old to learn from her first-ever defeat and use her kicking arsenal to piece up Dobson on the feet.
Prediction: Mazo via unanimous decision