UFC Fight Night best bets: Edwards vs. Dos Anjos

The welterweight division is getting crowded at the top, with four men having held a belt in recent years, and two still coming off title wins. Jorge Masvidal is also making a strong a case, having leapfrogged many former challengers and contenders.


Then there's the next tier down, where neither Rafael Dos Anjos nor Leon Edwards have had a shot at the welterweight belt, but have only lost to champion-level talent in their current runs. Whoever wins the fight on Saturday enters a crowded title picture, while the loser will end up a year or more off from a title shot.


Here are my best bets for the UFC Fight Night card this weekend:


Then there's the next tier down, where neither Rafael Dos Anjos nor Leon Edwards have had a shot at the welterweight belt, but have only lost to champion-level talent in their current runs. Whoever wins the fight on Saturday enters a crowded title picture, while the loser will end up a year or more off from a title shot.


Here are my best bets for the UFC Fight Night card this weekend:


Welterweight matchup: No. 12 Leon Edwards (-135) vs. No. 4 Rafael Dos Anjos (+105)

Tale Of The Tape

LEON EDWARDS RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
Last Fight Weight Class Welterweight Welterweight
Current Age 27.9 34.7
Height 72.0 68.0
Reach 74.0 71.0
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Analyzed Minutes 158 Mins 344 Mins
Standup striking offense
Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 4:1 5:1
Distance Knockdown Rate 3.2% 1.3%
Head Jab Accuracy 27% 26%
Head Power Accuracy 34% 29%
Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.1 0.8
Striking defense
Total Head Strike Defense 73% 75%
Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 99% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.42 0.45
Takedown Accuracy 32% 40%
Advances per Takedown/Top Control 1.6 0.8
Opponent Takedown Attempts 62 95
Takedown Defense 68% 59%
Share of Total Ground Time in Control 52% 63%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.15 0.19

On paper it would appear that Edwards has a significant size and striking advantage, and that's the way he prefers to fight --- at long distance, staying on the feet. But perhaps the striking metrics of dos Anjos are a bit deflated based on the long career he's had against elite opponents.


Dos Anjos has taken former champ Colby Covington and current champ Kamaru Usman the distance, unable to utilize his submission game against either dominant wrestler. But when dos Anjos is a better wrestler in the cage, he's able to go on the offensive with a dual-threat attack of striking and submissions. This could be his plan against a striker like Edwards, who will have to worry constantly about the Brazilian's grappling threat.


The ground metrics for Edwards are not bad by any stretch, they're just not very good. And you have to be quite good against a veteran and former champion like dos Anjos. Five rounds is a long time in the cage with dos Anjos, who has worn down dangerous opponents before. Edwards' best chance is with his hands, early. Should he get pinned in early rounds, it could exhaust him.


E+ recommends: Small play on dos Anjos at plus money, Fight Does Not Go the Distance at plus money.
Other fight card value


When Alexey Oleinik and Walt Harris clash in the co-main event, it could start slow, but end in a flash. There's a stark styles mismatch here, with Harris possessing heavy hands, and Oleinik owning 45 career submission finishes to go with his seemingly endless grappling credentials. One way or the other, this fight shouldn't require the judges. We're leaning toward Harris catching Oleinik early.


E+ recommends: Harris by TKO at near pick 'em pricing, Fight Does Not Go the Distance for parlays.