MMA MANIA write ups coming in - Prelims
145 lbs.: Gilbert Melendez vs. Arnold Allen
Gilbert Melendez (22-7) came agonizingly close to becoming the first Strikeforce champion to claim a UFC title, only to come out on the wrong end of a split decision against Benson Henderson. “El Nino” followed that up with a ludicrously entertaining victory over Diego Sanchez, but has yet to taste victory since, losing his next four bouts.
This will be his first fight since Sept. 2017.
Arnold Allen (14-1) pulled off a bonus-winning comeback submission of Alan Omer to kick off his UFC career, which has seen him go perfect (5-0) over four years. His run includes another impressive comeback finish of Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout Mads Burnell, which earned him his second Performance of the Night bonus.
“Almighty” will give up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Melendez.
If I knew for certain that Melendez would fight to the best of his abilities, I’d pick him in a heartbeat. Allen has struggled with takedown defense before and “El Nino” is an expert at blending his wrestling with his striking. Unfortunately, Melendez hasn’t hit a takedown in more than four years and has struggled to consistently bring it to the mat since making the move from Strikeforce.
Melendez could still win this on the strength of his jab, especially considering his height and reach advantages. The odds are definitely too wide at the moment, but a young, red-hot Allen looks like a likelier victor than an aging Melendez (especially when Jeremy Stephens and Edson Barboza revealed an easy path to victory via leg kicks). Allen outworks him on the feet to take a competitive decision.
Prediction: Allen via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Nohelin Hernandez
A standout on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” who had to withdraw with a skin infection, Marlon Vera (13-5) has won six of eight since opening his Octagon career 1-2. His current three-fight win streak has seen him score finishes of Wuliji Buren, Guido Cannetti and Frankie Saenz.
He has submitted seven opponents and knocked out another four.
Nohelin Hernandez (10-2) — who is 6-1 in his last seven and currently riding his own four-fight win streak — picking up wins in Tachi Palace Fights, Bellator, and LFA. The American Kickboxing Academy product, whom Tapologi lists as one of the top Bantamweights outside the UFC, stands two inches taller than Vera at 5’10.”
He replaces two-time United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) victim Sean O’Malley on four days’ notice.
I expected Vera to have all kinds of issues with O’Malley, but beating Hernandez seems more doable. “Suave” is a decent, lengthy boxer burdened with subpar striking defense and a tendency to get dropped. Vera, on the other hand, has never been stopped or even visibly hurt by fearsome punchers like John Lineker and Douglas Andrade.
“Chito’s” more versatile striking attack and submission skills make it hard to envision Hernandez successfully staying on his feet for 15 minutes. Vera drops him early and chokes him out soon after.
Prediction: Vera via first-round submission
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115 lbs.: Claudia Gadelha vs. Randa Markos
Claudia Gadelha (16-4) put her second loss to Joanna Jerdzejczyk behind her with a pair of dominant victories, including a bonus-winning submission of Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She has since lost two of three, a split decision over Carla Esparza sandwiched between decision losses to Jessica Andrade and Nina Ansaroff.
Seven of her nine stoppage wins have come by submission.
Randa Markos (9-6-1) has yet to taste consecutive victories in her 11-fight Octagon career, going 5-5-1 over her 4.5-year run. Her last two fights have seen her battle prospect Marina Rodriguez to a draw and submit Angela Hill with an armbar to earn “Performance of the Night.”
All four of her professional finishes have come by armbar.
You know, I really thought Gadelha would have moved to Flyweight by now. She’s got one of the best-rounded skillsets in the women’s divisions, but can only execute for seven or eight minutes before her cardio issues force her into survival mode until the final bell. It’s a distressingly predictable pattern, one more and more opponents are taking advantage of.
Still, she’s the better boxer and wrestler of the two, and Markos is inconsistent as they come. Expect a traditional Gadelha fight as she dominates the first round, arguably takes the second, then loses the third to set up a split decision.
Prediction: Gadelha via split decision
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135 lbs.: Alejandro Perez vs. Song Yadong
The guillotine loss Alejandro Perez (21-7-1) suffered at the hands of Patrick Williams in his second Octagon appearance gave way to a seven-fight unbeaten streak that saw him beat the likes of Iuri Alcantara and Eddie Wineland. His run came to an end at the hands of Cody Stamann, who stepped in for the injured Song Yadong (13-3) on short notice to beat Perez by decision at UFC 235.
He has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted another five.
Team Alpha Males’s Song, who turns 22 this upcoming December, got off to a red-hot UFC start with bonus-winning finishes of Bharat Khandare and Felipe Arantes. A subsequent decision over Vince Morales set up a March bout with Perez, only for Song to pull out with a knee injury.
He stands two inches taller than “Turbo” at 5’8,” though both have 67-inch reaches.
I’ve long since given up on trying to analyze Perez — dodgy decisions aside, he keeps finding ways to win despite having a well-rounded but unmemorable fight style. Heck, he doesn’t even lose like he’s supposed to. I picked Stamann to beat him on the strength of the former’s wrestling, but Perez wound up losing a three-round decision without surrendering a takedown.
Obnoxious.
Song looks to be the faster of the two by a fair margin and, despite having fewer finishes to his credit, is likely the more aggressive as well, setting him up to outwork Perez and connect with more eye-catching shots. So long as he can maintain his output from bell to bell, he should be able to land more telling blows and ultimately walk away with a clear decision.
Prediction: Song via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Jack Marshman vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Jack Marshman (23-8) started strong in the Octagon with an upset stoppage of Magnus Cedenblad, earning “Performance of the Night” along the way, but went on to lose three of his next four bouts. Though he literally had to go AWOL to do it, he got back on track in March with a split decision over fellow Welshman John Phillips in London.
“Hammer” stands two inches shorter than Edmen Shahbazyan (9-0) at 6’0.”
Shahbazyan — representing Edmund Tarverdyan’s Glendale Fighting Club — punched his UFC ticket with a 40-second stoppage of Antonio Jones on “Contender Series.” He settled for a split decision over Darren Stewart in his UFC debut, but got back to his finishing ways by stopping Charles Byrd in 38 seconds.
Eight of his nine victories have come via first-round (technical) knockout.
In a pure striking battle, Marshman could likely outlast Shahbazyan and do some real damage once the GFC rep started to fade. Unfortunately for him, Shahbazyan showed against Stewart that he’s ready, willing, and able to lean on his wrestling if needed.
Tough as Marshman is, grit won’t compensate for the technical deficiencies in his takedown defense.
Shahbazyan will have to keep his wits about him for all 15 minutes against the iron-tough Welshman, but the ability to take it to the ground whenever things get hairy should keep him out of danger. Expect a few good exchanges on the feet before Shahbazyan acknowledges Marshman’s durability and cruises to victory from top position.
Prediction: Shahbazyan via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Chance Rencountre
Ismail Naurdiev (18-2) entered the UFC with 13 wins in his previous 14 bouts, among them a body kick finish of UFC veteran Benny Alloway and a wheel kick knockout. “The Austrian Wonderboy” stepped up on short notice against Brazilian powerhouse Michel Prazeres, surviving “Trator’s” grappling onslaught to take home a unanimous decision.
The victory was his first decision win since his professional debut, as he’s knocked out 11 foes and submitted another five.
Shortly after avenging his lone Bellator loss, Chance Rencountre (13-3)stepped up on late notice to face Belal Muhammad last June, dropping a unanimous decision to “Remember the Name.” He entered his sophomore effort against Kyle Stewart as the underdog, only to choke out “Gunz Up” midway through the first round.
“Black Eagle” will have two inches of height and an inch of reach on Naurdiev.
Honestly, this just looks like a somewhat less challenging version of Naurdiev’s debut. Rencountre is taller and rangier than Prazeres, but lacks the Brazilian’s explosive boxing or suffocating top game. “Black Eagle” doesn’t have the technical wrestling to get through Naurdiev’s takedown defense and is far too hittable to survive against a power striker of this caliber.
Had this fight taken place before Naurdiev’s debut, I’d have likely picked Rencountre after seeing Naurdiev struggle against a basic pressure fighter in Ismael De Jesus. Now that I know “The Austrian Wonderboy” can handle quality wrestling, it’s hard to see him losing this. He clips Rencountre with a nasty flurry sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Naurdiev via first-round knockout
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135 lbs.: Julia Avila vs. Pannie Kianzad
Julia Avila (6-1) defeated the likes of Marion Reneau and Nicco Montano en route to her Invicta debut, which saw her suffer a compound fracture in her finger while blocking a kick from future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Marciea Allen. She’s since rebounded with a pair of knockouts, raising her career total to three.
She’ll have a three-inch reach advantage over “Banzai.”
Pannie Kianzad (11-4) ended her Invicta tenure on a winless (0-3) skid, but fought her way to the finals of TUF 28 as a Featherweight. Though she tapped to current top prospect Macy Chiasson, Kianzad returned to the win column in May with a decision over Iony Razafiarison in her native Sweden.
She steps in for the injured Melissa Gatto on two weeks’ notice.
Next to Chiasson, who’s just a beast, Avila is the most interesting addition to the women’s Bantamweight roster in some time. She’s a crazy-aggressive, swarming puncher with legitimate power and a downright nasty clinch assault. She’s already beaten two current members of the roster and only lost because her finger bone was literally sticking out of her skin.
Kianzad, though a strong striker in her own right, looks to be on the wrong end of the speed advantage and isn’t as crisp in close quarters. Her key weapon will likely be her wrestling, which is something I haven’t seen Avila have to deal with. As much of an unknown as that interaction is, considering Avila’s upside, the short notice, and Kianzad’s historical struggle with the Bantamweight limit, it’s hard to pick against the new girl. She swarms Kianzad for a late finish.
Prediction: Avila via second-round technical knockout
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 88-45