[Demonata]

Do we think Poirier is a better fighter than Ortega?

In the stand up yeah. On the ground ortega though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I dont have a clear view of how this will end up, but i think its a 50/50 type scenario so, -125, yeah it pretty close i guess. Ill just lean back and fakking enjoy this fight. My money wont be placed here, but i will enjoy every second. I rather go for people with holes in their game, these gentlemans are the absolute cream of the crop. I dont see any big holes to exploit. But holloway may find it though...over time, he creates shit out of nothing and builds momentum. But the fight doesnt need to play out like that just becauese this is how i envision it,...thats just one out. So clear pass, in my book.

Max has a way better chin and crisper striking. Don't get me wrong, I love Dustin Poirier but this is Max's fight.

[firekillex]

Max has a way better chin and crisper striking. Don't get me wrong, I love Dustin Poirier but this is Max's fight.

Max has a granite chin and moving up to 55 should help him a lot imo he shouldnt be fighting at 45 anymore
Porier has looked amazing lately he has a great all around game and his movement / boxing have improved hugely , the only time his defense has looked bad lately was against Jim Miller with those leg kicks, which Max doesnt use at all.. i think this will be a super close fight , if Holloway gets to -200 or under id consider but anything more is a no play for me tbh

[firekillex]

[bjpenn85]

Max has a granite chin and moving up to 55 should help him a lot imo he shouldnt be fighting at 45 anymore
Porier has looked amazing lately he has a great all around game and his movement / boxing have improved hugely , the only time his defense has looked bad lately was against Jim Miller with those leg kicks, which Max doesnt use at all.. i think this will be a super close fight , if Holloway gets to -200 or under id consider but anything more is a no play for me tbh

Agreed, no play, unless i get -160.

[turbozed]

Adesanya down to -145 on Bookmaker. That's a good price IMO.

[bjpenn85]

A hell of a price. Annoys me i only got -165

[Thrilla]

This will be the first UFC pay-per-view to not be sold through U.S. television providers for residential customers. Per an extension of its new rights agreements with ESPN through 2025, UFC pay-per-views are now distributed exclusively through ESPN+, and viewers must have an active subscription to the service in order to purchase and stream the event. At the same time, the price of the PPV was lowered from $64.99 to $59.99, and a promotional offer was launched allowing new subscribers to purchase a bundle of the PPV and a one-year subscription to ESPN+ for $20 more.^[3][4]

The event is expected to be headlined by an interim UFC Lightweight Championship bout between current UFC Featherweight Champion Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.^[5] The two previously met in a featherweight bout at UFC 143 where Poirier won by submission in the first round.^[6]

An interim UFC Middleweight Championship bout between The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen middleweight winner Kelvin Gastelum and Israel Adesanya has also been slated for the event and is expected to serve as the co-headliner.^[7]

A bantamweight bout between Boston Salmon and Khalid Taha was initially scheduled for The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale. However, the pairing was removed from the card for undiclosed reasons and has instead been rescheduled for this event.^[8]

Paige VanZant was briefly linked to a matchup with Poliana Botelho at the event.^[9] However, just days after the pairing was leaked, VanZant announced that she would not be competing on the card due to a fractured right arm.^[10] Botelho is expected to remain on the card against Lauren Mueller.^[11]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_236

[HurlSweatPants]

A hell of a price. Annoys me i only got -165

Want to do some Betpoints for the Israel fight?

[Treppenwitz64]

In the stand up yeah. On the ground ortega though.

I agree.

Critically though, Poirer has much better offensive wrestling than Ortega, who is basically forced to be totally opportunistic with submissions because his takedowns have a very low success rate.

[unlearn]

Max isnt the kind of guy to just flash KO anybody. Accumulation of heavy volume is his MO
Max rd 3 +700
Max rd 4 +900

[Hugo de Naranja]

Max isnt the kind of guy to just flash KO anybody. Accumulation of heavy volume is his MO
Max rd 3 +700
Max rd 4 +900

I like it. These props have been VERY good to me in my betting career. Cashed them against Pettis, both times against Aldo, and against Ortega.

[turbozed]

Max isnt the kind of guy to just flash KO anybody. Accumulation of heavy volume is his MO
Max rd 3 +700
Max rd 4 +900

I also hit Max rds 3 and 4. Max has been gunning for the finish in rds3 and 4 in his last 4 fights (Ortega, Aldox2, Pettis). I hope he comes in with the same gameplan as in the Aldo fights (staying in his face, feinting a lot to draw reactions and being loose). There was an interesting stat on the UFC Inside the Octagon that shows Poirier's output declining as it gets later in rounds. I think if Poirier is not seeing what he likes on the feet, he might try to wrestle like he did to Miller in Rd3. I don't think Poirier has a bad gas tank but he might have to work harder to cover distance and might catch a lot of air with his strikes (as opposed to phone book fighting and landing everything on Gaethje).

[strictlypaypal]

Anybody on KG here? I dont see adesanya knocking him out. I think adesanya can strike his way to a decision. Adesanya is so much taller than him though i can see him mis distancing himself walking back and KG hits him with a 1-2 and drops him.

[PaperTrail07]

+ $ I am...my picks were posted......prove it stylebender----go earn this one .

Anybody on KG here? I dont see adesanya knocking him out. I think adesanya can strike his way to a decision. Adesanya is so much taller than him though i can see him mis distancing himself walking back and KG hits him with a 1-2 and drops him.

[PaperTrail07]

On KG+$ , Anders, Jouban, Preux, Reis+$ at a glance.

[PaperTrail07]

Standard Lotto Ticket here

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Holloway 4/13/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -215 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Anders 4/13/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -190 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : W. Reis 4/13/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line +130 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : O. St Preux 4/13/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -105 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : A. Jouban 4/13/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -115 for Game

Risking : 55.00 To Win : 977.55 USD

[HurlSweatPants]

Anybody on KG here? I dont see adesanya knocking him out. I think adesanya can strike his way to a decision. Adesanya is so much taller than him though i can see him mis distancing himself walking back and KG hits him with a 1-2 and drops him.

I like KG in this spot, actually liked him in the RW fight for the odds as well. Iron chin, excellent boxing and range, great TDD. Don't get me wrong, Israel is a beast but I think this is bad stylistically for him. As you said, IA may piece him up and win a DEC, but that left straight is live until the end of round 5.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like KG in this spot, actually liked him in the RW fight for the odds as well. Glass chin, excellent boxing and range, great TDD. Don't get me wrong, Israel is a beast but I think this is bad stylistically for him. As you said, IA may piece him up and win a DEC, but that left straight is live until the end of round 5.

Huh? Don't think either guy has a glass chin.

[HurlSweatPants]

Huh? Don't think either guy has a glass chin.

Corrected lol.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Corrected lol.

That makes more sense haha

[bjpenn85]

I like KG in this spot, actually liked him in the RW fight for the odds as well. Iron chin, excellent boxing and range, great TDD. Don't get me wrong, Israel is a beast but I think this is bad stylistically for him. As you said, IA may piece him up and win a DEC, but that left straight is live until the end of round 5.

I think this is a pretty good stylistic matchup for Israel. Most likely KG wont get this to the ground, right, most likely.

Ok, so on the feet 9 inches of reach, better striker overall with better movement.

Except for that last punch in round 1 against Weidman, Kelvin struggled. That 1-2 combo with the left straight was so easy to see, you can see it coming from mile a way. Thats at least how i remember the fight from memory. I felt Weidman exposed Kelvins striking a little here. Or...he proved how difficult it is to overcome long reach a reach of 8 inches, this is another inch for ya.

Look at Kelvins record, he fights people in their 40s, i mean, common...hehe.

[Unwritten Law]

I'll be betting on Kelvin and Max. Israel hasn't impressed me despite his unblemished record. KG has faced stiffer challenges and has never been KO'd. Stand up KG will close the distance and nullify the reach disadvantage. Israel hasn't really been in trouble or faced adversity. Once he gets in trouble I don't think he'll be able to handle the pressure will bring.

Porier's resume also isn't all that impressive compared to Max. Remember Eddie Alvarez was getting the better vs Poirier before that 12-6 elbow strike to the shoulder after getting mounted which obviously changed the outcome of that fight. The ref saved Poirier last time. It won't happen this time as Max will punish Poirier and give him a beat down and close him out from the 3rd or 4th round.

[Demonata]

I'm so pumped for these fights!!! Going to be im wendover watching them on huge projector screens with some amigos!!!

[bjpenn85]

I'll be betting on Kelvin and Max. Israel hasn't impressed me despite his unblemished record. KG has faced stiffer challenges and has never been KO'd. Stand up KG will close the distance and nullify the reach disadvantage. Israel hasn't really been in trouble or faced adversity. Once he gets in trouble I don't think he'll be able to handle the pressure will bring.

Porier's resume also isn't all that impressive compared to Max. Remember Eddie Alvarez was getting the better vs Poirier before that 12-6 elbow strike to the shoulder after getting mounted which obviously changed the outcome of that fight. The ref saved Poirier last time. It won't happen this time as Max will punish Poirier and give him a beat down and close him out from the 3rd or 4th round.

Im not so sure he can nullify the reach advantage, this is isnt steffen struve. He wasnt able against Weidman so...we will see on saturday i guess.

[PaperTrail07]

KG is going to win with his Grappling and takedowns IMO.....what fuckn SCARES the living shit out of me is the judges lol....could go the distance and don't see KG doing TONS of damage on the floor.....ades will look for the judge to stand it up....

Im not so sure he can nullify the reach advantage, this is isnt steffen struve. He wasnt able against Weidman so...we will see on saturday i guess.

[PaperTrail07]

Even in later round when he WILL be the one walking forward? If KG can beat SOUZA you bet your ass I'm tossing $ on him vs stylebender....

I think this is a pretty good stylistic matchup for Israel. Most likely KG wont get this to the ground, right, most likely.

Ok, so on the feet 9 inches of reach, better striker overall with better movement.

Except for that last punch in round 1 against Weidman, Kelvin struggled. That 1-2 combo with the left straight was so easy to see, you can see it coming from mile a way. Thats at least how i remember the fight from memory. I felt Weidman exposed Kelvins striking a little here. Or...he proved how difficult it is to overcome long reach a reach of 8 inches, this is another inch for ya.

Look at Kelvins record, he fights people in their 40s, i mean, common...hehe.

[firekillex]

Even in later round when he WILL be the one walking forward? If KG can beat SOUZA you bet your ass I'm tossing $ on him vs stylebender....

beat Souza by split in a pure stand up fight where Souza couldve got the nod, Israel much better striking then Souza, Kelvin would be smart to try and grind this fight out but 5 rounds will be his disadvantage trying to do it for so long i think hell end up getting picked apart in certain spots and his cage grinding wont be enough for a decision.... very good fight though

[Hugo de Naranja]

KG is going to win with his Grappling and takedowns IMO.....what fuckn SCARES the living shit out of me is the judges lol....could go the distance and don't see KG doing TONS of damage on the floor.....ades will look for the judge to stand it up....

Opponents who are better wrestlers than Gastelum have had little success taking Adesanya down. What makes KG different?

[PaperTrail07]

"better" but his style is better for IA IMO......not a quick TD but a walk in tie up and and tire out then a TD......KG will also put his chin on the line to make it happen and is heavy on the ground...add that pace for 5 rounds....and you never know....I just think its a good strategy for him and IF he wins it could go down like that...he simply cant stand at distance and eat 1-2 sandwiches all day lol..........

Opponents who are better wrestlers than Gastelum have had little success taking Adesanya down. What makes KG different?

[PaperTrail07]

Vettori got in there.....KG will be sure to land those doubles....

[bjpenn85]

Even in later round when he WILL be the one walking forward? If KG can beat SOUZA you bet your ass I'm tossing $ on him vs stylebender....

I dont understand, how does souzas striking compare to Israels, do you mean reach?

Souza reach: 72 inches
Israels reach: 80 inches.

Souzas hit Gastelum so many times, i was suprised he even could stand after the fight. If significant strikes/ total strikes counts Souza arguably won that fight with 78 to 57 total strikes, and also significant strikes (64 to 53) as well.

Although Gastelum pressured, and souza was gassed last round of that fight, Gastelum was hit ALL the fakking time. He just has a chin on him.

Souza is old and shopworn so even if Souza actually won, it wouldnt mean much in my eyes.

[PaperTrail07]

I just mean he is battle tested......not his toughest fight....know sometimes his skills are less and digs deep in the heart department...

I dont understand, how does souzas striking compare to Israels, do you mean reach?

Souza reach: 72 inches
Israels reach: 80 inches.

Souzas hit Gastelum so many times, i was suprised he even could stand after the fight. If significant strikes/ total strikes counts Souza arguably won that fight with 78 to 57 total strikes, and also significant strikes (64 to 53) as well.

Although Gastelum pressured, and souza was gassed last round of that fight, Gastelum was hit ALL the fakking time. He just has a chin on him.

Souza is old and shopworn so even if Souza actually won, it wouldnt mean much in my eyes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

KG will have to overcome a big skill gap here. I don’t see him hitting consistent TDs.

[bjpenn85]

I just mean he is battle tested......not his toughest fight....know sometimes his skills are less and digs deep in the heart department...

Absolutely Kelvin Gastelum got something with him, he came this far, and hes not a huge guy, but he still do fairly good in middleweight.

It would be damn sweet, with that little fat bullied kid rising all the way to the top, but at the end of the day, the stylistic matchup is bad, he doesnt have the skill, im afraid, thats just not a good spot, to place your money.

Regardless of youre liking an underdog, or a favourite, dont place you money on a bad stylistic matchup, i would reconsider if i was you Paper.

You can still get Wilson Reis at +150, that fight seems pretty 50/50 or that horrible takedown defence of Curtis Millender, i mean, isnt that something to at least consider? Instead of Kelvin Gastelum trying to outstrike a glory kickboxer with 10 reach disadvantage?

Hehe..do you get my point? Why make betting this difficult?