Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori

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It's the last month of 2020, and there are three UFC fight cards left in the year. The UFC is experiencing a rapidly evolving situation due to the coronavirus pandemic, including last-minute changes for all three main events that will close the year. But changes don't necessary mean bad matchups.


The main event Saturday at UFC Vegas 16 has changed three times in the last month, and we're left with a matchup that oddly pits two men on opposite ends of the middleweight rankings, but with betting odds that slightly favor the lower-ranked fighter. Are the odds wrong or are the rankings wrong?


Prelims start at 7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN2/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Middleweight main event: No. 13 Marvin Vettori (-140) vs. No. 4 Jack Hermansson (+120)


Tale Of The Tape

JACK HERMANSSON MARVIN VETTORI
Last fight weight class Middleweight Middleweight
Age 32 27
Height 73 72
Reach 77.5 74
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Analyzed minutes 82 99
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 0:2 0:0
Distance knockdown rate 0.0% 0.0%
Head jab accuracy 24% 34%
Head power accuracy 32% 32%
Total stand-up strike ratio 1.6 1.0
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 72% 79%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 97% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.61 0.28
Takedown accuracy 35% 48%
Advances per takedown/top control 1.5 0.9
Opponent takedown attempts 19 26
Takedown defense 74% 81%
Share of total ground time in control 60% 64%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.29 0.38
Two European middleweights will fight to stay relevant in a crowded division. The highly-ranked Hermansson has risen through the ranks quicker, and this will be his second headlining matchup. But Vettori, despite no five-round experience and barely cracking the top 15 of the division, is currently favored.


One reason could be the three-fight win streak that Vettori has put together since his last loss. Another reason could be that his last loss was a split decision to current champ Israel Adesanya. A loss that close to the elite of the sport could say more about his durability and potential than his wins.


On paper, Vettori is younger and crisper, a more aggressive striker. Both fighters strike at a similar rate, but Vettori uses far more power in his strikes compared to jabs and maintains excellent defense in doing so. He has a bullying style paired with a strong chin, and should the two get into a firefight, Vettori is likely to be the last one standing.


But one might argue that Hermansson's own aggressive striking strategy is simply a setup for his slick and versatile grappling. He attempts takedowns at a very high rate, though he lands them with below-average accuracy. Once on the ground, his submission arsenal has made the most obvious difference in his UFC career, ending three of his recent matchups against strong talent. He transitions often and with ease, making any wrestling that Vettori might want to fall back on a big risk area for the Italian.


Vettori should prefer to keep this standing, and his 81% takedown defense will help him. Hermansson will likely attempt takedowns frequently out of the gate. If Vettori stuffs them early, he has the better finishing potential while standing and could accumulate heavy-handed damage from his southpaw stance to finish well before the bonus rounds.


With his exhausting pace, endurance could be an issue for Vettori should the rounds drag on, and Hermansson's submission threat is a risk for Vettori if he makes a mental error or overcommits. There is clear finishing potential on both sides of the cage.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Vettori. Fight does not go the distance.
Best bets elsewhere on the card



On an otherwise thin fight card, the fighter who has logged the most Octagon rounds to date is Gian Villante (-210), who will fight Jake Collier (+180) in the featured prelims. Both previously competed at light heavyweight but have made a move up a division.


Collier got his start in jiu-jitsu, while Villante is a former wrestler. And yet neither man has effectively utilized his original base. It could be a sloppy and slow fight, but it's worth noting that both men have poor head-strike defense, so that doesn't mean this can't end quickly. The lean is for Villante to be more likely to land the big punch early and also have the edge should the fight wear on and exhaust them both.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Villante.