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UFC on ESPN+ 6: Thompson vs. Pettis (March 23, 2019)
ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Stephen Thompson vs Anthony Pettis
Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
John Makdessi vs Jesus Pinedo
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Jussier Formiga
Luis Pena vs Steven Peterson
JJ Aldrich vs Maycee vs Barber
ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Bryce Mitchell vs Bobby Moffett
Frankie Saenz vs Marlon Vera
Alexis Davis vs Jennifer Maia
Angela Hill vs Randa Markos
Chris Gutierrez vs Ryan MMacDonald
Jordan Espinosa vs Eric Shelton
Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 03-18-19 at 05:43 PM.
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Thanks for starting the thread Locky. I always liked your threads best.
I'm interested in playing Figueiredo in his fight with Formiga. He's made me money before. Thoughts on this fight?
My gut feeling is that figureido will win, but im not sure if its value at the current line, havent broken down the fight. But my first thought after watching tape a month back was "omg who the hell is this guy", ill bet him regardless.Originally Posted by Teem
Then he draws formiga, which obviously is tricky. But i do lean towards figureido moderate to heavily.
you the man locker
looks like this card will be better for props hopefully , not loving the MLS
This is an awesome card!!! Wonderboy i think is a lock though.maybe wonderboy and blaydes parlay. Kind of like formiga too...
Figueiredo got outwrestled & lost his fight with Jarred Brooks 30-27 in one of the biggest judging robberies of all time.
Formiga could be a live dog there with him working on his wrestling to compliment his grappling.
-357 a bit steep even though he should definitely win this fight... trying to think way of victory though i could see a boring ass decision or a tko for wonderboy if pettis gets super aggressive for takedowns
I think Fig can KO Formiga if he's able to keep it standing.
Yeah i wonder if it would be even money parlayed with blaydes. Wonder boy i think will pick him apart but pettis is tough.
Wonderboy hasnt been able to pull the trigger lately at all... but hes basically Pettis but better and bigger
I see Pettis trying to get some takedowns here after failing on the feet .... would like to see at Fight Goes Distance odds will be
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Can't wait. Will be my first live ufc event this weekend. I think Peterson is priced way too high. I like formiga and Maia at the dog odds as well so far
-110? Decent
dont love the odds on that.. basically 50/50 he outpoints a decision no value really imo
Its decent since wonderboy are more than happy to just outpoint people. But pettis is a quitter, against holloway, recently against ferguson, against poirier, and just generelly when facing adversity. So i wouldnt feel safe, but wonderboy is not willing to take chances either, and most of the above mentioned fighters that was able to finish pettis, are in fact willing to take chances to put themself under fire to get the finish. Wonderboy will more than 50% of the times end up going to the decision i think...i would cap the line at -130 ish, but i might be a bit biased towards stephen thompson dec since he has only met stiff competition last year. This may be a fight were we will remind our self how good wonderboy is.
But i wont bet this line, like at all, way to much risk.
yup its just scary because Wonderboy is a smart guy he knows hes gotten a ton of hate because he hasnt been aggressive at all , hes fighting a smaller guy and he might try to get a huge finish here since the 170 champion changed he knows this could be his last chance to win a title and a spectacular KO here could put him in position or very close ... lots of things come to play here.. but in the end he should definitely win i guess adding him into some parlays could be alright
I might bet pettis to win small and parlay wonder boy with blaydes.pettis fights hard. He almost won a against ferguson.
Decent card, top 3 fights seem spot on with the odds.. Not alot of value there.. Rest of the card different story..
Looking like Thompson by decision in the main with his length and Karate style crap.
Pettis is tough and hard to finish so I doubt Thompson finishes him with his peek a boo karate stay at distance garbage. I'm not convinced at all Pettis could win a decision or finish Thompson on the flip..
Decision machine lately https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stephen-Thompson-59608
Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson - Welterweight 5 rounds - UFC on ESPN+ 6 Sat 3/23 1003 Pettis / Thompson goes 5 round distance -110 10:30PM 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -130
Might bet the fight wont go 5 rounds prop. Then can cheer fir both to win fast.
Been waiting days for my book to finally open the Gutierrez/Macdonald line. Literally JUST opened it with Gutierrez at -195 and I still think there's solid value. Put a good sized 4.4u play.
I'm waiting for the Thompson Decision prop to come out.. Should be much better odds..
Gambling Question now is it gonna be a Split Dec or UN decision and do you take that for even better odds?
I'd say if Pettis is to win this fight it will be ITD and probably by KO. That's a long shot though!! I'm not buying it Wonder Boy is a survivor when rocked too.. Never out cold.
I just don't see Pettis pulling off a decision win either against Wonder Boy... Just looking at the simple career records and trend searching I see this right off the bat.. I know this anyways seeing both these fighters since joining the UFC.. We all know them both well..
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627
- Pettis is 4-5 in decisions in his career..
- Thompson is 6-3 in decisions over his career.
Sucks cheering for a decision though.lol. we need the wonderboy that knocked out johnny Hendricks!I'm waiting for the Thompson Decision prop to come out.. Should be much better odds..
Gambling Question now is it gonna be a Split Dec or UN decision and do you take that for even better odds?
I'd say if Pettis is to win this fight it will be ITD and probably by KO. That's a long shot though!! I'm not buying it Wonder Boy is a survivor when rocked too.. Never out cold.
I just don't see Pettis pulling off a decision win either against Wonder Boy... Just looking at the simple career records and trend searching I see this right off the bat.. I know this anyways seeing both these fighters since joining the UFC.. We all know them both well..
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627
- Pettis is 4-5 in decisions in his career..
- Thompson is 6-3 in decisions over his career.
Wonderboy does best against aggressive fighters, he won a ton in the beginning but once people started realizing you cant play his game he started losing / going to boring decisions ... still never seen a guy dominate Wonderboy if he ever losses its a super close decision... Dont really see anyway he losses this fight tbh but picking the method of victory can be tough legit 50/50 for me decision / finish , really depends more on what kind of game plan pettis comes out with
There so many fight these days, the bookies heads are spinning as well. Line.is.completely.off!!!!
Prelim write ups... MMAMANIA
115 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Angela Hill
It’s hard to believe it’s been five years since Randa Markos (8-6-1) made her Cinderella run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 that saw her upset Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig. She’s gone 4-4-1 in the Octagon itself, most recently fighting undefeated Marina Rodriguez to a majority draw in the latter’s native Brazil.
She has tapped three professional opponents with armbars.
Angela Hill (8-5) made the most of her time between UFC stints, edging Livia Renata Souza for the Invicta Strawweight title and successfully defending it against Kaline Medeiros. She has alternated losses and wins in this second run, defeating Maryna Moroz but losing a controversial decision to Cortney Casey in her 2018 campaign.
“Overkill” is one inch shorter than Markos, but will have a one-inch reach advantage.
This might be the closest fight on the undercard. Hill is the better striker by a decent margin, but consistently struggles with the takedowns of her opponents. Markos, meanwhile, hasn’t lived up to the potential her wrestling and brutal right hand provide. This fight boils down to where they spend the majority of it.
To me, at least, the gap on the feet isn’t as big as the gap on the mat. Both women have a history of wonky decisions, but assuming things stay sensible, Markos ekes out a decision with top control.
Prediction: Markos via split decision
135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez vs. Ryan MacDonald
Chris Gutierrez (12-3-1) brought a three-fight win streak into his Octagon debut against Raoni Barcelos, among them a win in his first LFA headliner. The Brazilian veteran proved too much for him, submitting him with a rear naked choke late in the second round.
He stands three inches taller than Ryan MacDonald (10-0).
“Main Event” MacDonald went 7-3 as an amateur before making his professional debut in 2016. He enters the Octagon as the MCF Featherweight and Bantamweight champion, having won his last three by stoppage.
He replaces the injured Martin Day on two weeks’ notice.
I’m honestly not super impressed by MacDonald. He’s just 25, so there’s room to grow, but at the moment he’s an overly upright striker with decent combinations, but no defense whatsoever. Matt Murphy (7-9) tore him up and nearly finished him in the first round last year, and the majority of his opponents have been around the .500 mark.
Gutierrez is simply too good a striker for someone as defensively lax as MacDonald. In short, heavy low kicks set up a fight-ending punching sequence.
Prediction: Gutierrez via first-round knockout
125 lbs.: Eric Shelton vs. Jordan Espinosa
Eric Shelton (12-5) put together a surprisingly strong run on TUF 24, where he defeated highly touted Yoni Sherbatov and Ronaldo Candido before giving Tim Elliott all he could handle in the semifinals. He hasn’t had quite as much success in the Octagon, going 2-3.
“Showtime” will give up one inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach to Jordan Epinosa (13-5).
Espinosa opened his career even (4-4) before embarking on his current run, which is marred only by a loss to Dinis Paiva and a “No Contest” against Nick Urso. He punched his ticket to the Octagon with two stoppage victories on the Contender Series, among them an 83-second d’arce finish of Urso.
Seven of his nine finishes have come by submission.
This ought to be fun, with both men offering a similar blend of strong striking and dangerous submissions. The deciding factor is endurance; Espinosa bursts out of the gate but fades late, while Shelton is every bit as dangerous when the last bell sounds as when the first bell rings.
That said, Shelton is weirdly inconsistent and doesn’t seem to be fighting up to his athletic gifts, so Espinosa shouldn’t be counted out. He is, however, too durable for Espinosa to knock out or submit. “Showtime’s” takedowns and scrambles empty Espinosa’s gas tank and allow the former to take over as the fight progresses.
Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Bobby Moffett vs. Bryce Mitchell
Bobby Moffett (14-3) fell short in bids for RFA and LFA gold, dropping a decision to Raoni Barcelos and suffering a knockout loss to Thanh Le, respectively. Three consecutive wins, including a d’arce finish on “Contender Series,” brought him to the Octagon, where he defeated Chas Skelly in controversial fashion.
“The Wolfman” owns nine wins by submission, including five by d’arce.
Bryce Mitchell (10-0) — Team Daniel Cormier’s second Featherweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 — defeated Jay Cucciniello in the quarterfinals before tapping to teammate and eventual winner Brad Katona in the semifinals. He ultimately faced fellow semifinalist Tyler Diamond at the Finale, surviving a late surge to take a majority decision.
He has scored eight submissions of his own, five of them rear-naked chokes.
I really hope these two don’t decide to strike, because they could make for some terrific ground fighting. The key here may be the simple fact that Moffett is more comfortable, or at least more experienced, in the grind than Mitchell is. “The Wolfman” pushes a grueling pace that Mitchell seems unable to handle.
Seeing Mitchell fade late against both Katona and Diamond, I’m not confident he can keep up with Moffett’s grappling onslaught. “The Wolfman” wears down Mitchell before ultimately catching him in his favored d’arce late in the second or early in the third.
Prediction: Moffett via third-round submission
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Frankie Saenz
These two were supposed to fight at UFC 235 before Marlon Vera (14-5-1) got sick. I still have my original write up, so if it’s all the same, I’ll just use that.
Though “Chito’s” run on TUF: Latin America was cut short by illness and he lost his debut to Marco Beltran, four wins in his next five fights made him a legitimate contender at 135 pounds. His efforts hit a snag thanks to power punchers John Lineker and Douglas Andrade, though he’s since finished Wuliji Buren and TUF castmate Guido Cannetti.
He owns seven professional submission wins, including four by triangle or armbar.
Frankie Saenz (12-5) scored one of the biggest numerical upsets in recent UFC history with his 2015 decision over Iuri Alcantara and followed it up with a decision over Sirwan Kakai, but subsequently lost three straight. A controversial decision over Merab Dvalishvili got him back on track, and he followed that up by beating another of Vera’s castmates in Henry Briones.
He replaces the injured Thomas Almeida on one month’s notice.
As good as Vera is, his wrestling remains an Achilles’ heel he doesn’t seem poised to fix anytime soon. He’s been taken down at least once in all but two of his UFC fights, and he only had to deal with one cumulative attempt in that span. Saenz may not have much to offer outside of grit and decent takedowns, but that’s really all he needs here.
Vera’s options are keeping the fight at range, trying to exploit Saenz’s remarkably porous defensive wrestling, or attempting to catch a submission off of his back. The first one’s unlikely, considering that shorter men in Lineker and Andrade regularly worked their ways into the pocket, and Vera’s generally not a super capable offensive wrestler. That leaves his guard, which I believe Saenz can navigate for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Saenz via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Jennifer Maia
Alexis Davis (19-8) went 5-2 as a UFC Bantamweight before successfully debuting at 125 pounds with a decision over Liz Carmouche. This set up a bout with the rising Katlyn Chookagian, who narrowly edged Davis with her volume striking.
She has tapped five opponents with rear-naked chokes and three with armbars.
Jennifer Maia (15-5-1) defeated Vanessa Porto to win the Invicta Flyweight title in 2016, then defended it with decisions over Roxanne Modafferi and Agnieszka Niedzwiedz. She squared off with Liz Carmouche in her Octagon debut, struggling with “Girl-Rilla’s” wrestling en route to a decision loss.
She is two inches shorter than Davis and will give up four inches of reach.
Maia’s biggest problem is that she’s a five-round fighter stuck in three-round fights. Before she gets going, she’s easy to hit and especially easy to take down. Davis has the striking and grappling to do both, at least for the first two rounds, and she’s gritty enough to keep it close even when Maia gets into gear.
Davis really just needs to focus on her takedowns, which she hasn’t always done, but so long as she fights smart, she should be able to either finish Maia early or rack up enough time in dominant position to get the decision. I’ll be optimistic and pick the former.
Prediction: Davis via first-round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 35-18
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Has to be a typo, but Oddshark has that line opening at +110 for Gutierrez. Biggest line adjustment so far next to Makdessi, which opened at 2 to 1 and now sitting at -300/325 range.
Sanez and Maia are losing big dog status as well, both are inching closer to even money lines.
Violent Bob Ross line is puzzling, -250 for a guy that looked like complete shit IMO last time out against Triziano. I know he trains out of AKA, and this may be his time to showcase against a lesser fighter, but I am on wait and see mode with him.
Loving Maycee Barber. Have a sizeable bet on her. Don’t see any real path that Aldrich has to victory.
I’ve seen those openers listed and they’re nuts. My book showed -155 on BFO for a few days before the line finally showed up and was -195. Max bet. I think Gutierrez is better everywhere, trains at a better camp, and has more experience and seasoning.
Glad you agree. I added and made this a 5u play. First one since Holloway vs Ortega. Macdonald’s only shot is to come out with some otherworldly grit and determination (his bro committed suicide last year and he fights for him, I’ve read). I just don’t see the skills on his side really anywhere. You never know though. I guess we’ll find out.
Yeah i agree, think I realized it when I saw that Wonderboy opened at -1000
Macdonals is young, and we have never seen him in the ufc. But all parameters point in the direction of him loosing. This period has been challenging with countless of hours sacrificed for bettors and bookies, but it pays off for us, if now and again, you get these types line. Some of the lines lately remind me of 2010-2012 , where we saw crazy line movements because of linesman errors or inexperience. This early spring period with a heavy program might force mistakes on the bookies side of the table, keep it coming baby!!
I have JJ Aldrich small, i wonder if its a mistake, but when i looked at barber, she reminds me a bit of cat zingano, kick heavy, but questionable striking, and perhaps a bit unproven ability to take the fight to the ground? If this ends up being a striking contest can JJ aldrich outpoint her on the feet?
Maybe, but i think Barber has a significant edge when it comes to being a better athlete, shes aggressive, and lets say, she is the lesser striker, she still just push through and win clinch battles, and pushing forward with kicks. She also seem to get a little better as the fight goes on...i just struggle with understanding, how anyone can be confident in such an unproven, inexperienced fighter AND THEN at the price of -250 or whatever, then lay the chalk? Isnt this like the typical mistake of a bettor? Buy into the hype train with very little evidence/data to go by?
Hugo de Naranja gave THE_LOCKSMITH 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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