[The HOFF]

I have JJ Aldrich small, i wonder if its a mistake, but when i looked at barber, she reminds me a bit of cat zingano, kick heavy, but questionable striking, and perhaps a bit unproven ability to take the fight to the ground? If this ends up being a striking contest can JJ aldrich outpoint her on the feet?

Maybe, but i think Barber has a significant edge when it comes to being a better athlete, shes aggressive, and lets say, she is the lesser striker, she still just push through and win clinch battles, and pushing forward with kicks. She also seem to get a little better as the fight goes on...i just struggle with understanding, how anyone can be confident in such an unproven, inexperienced fighter AND THEN at the price of -250 or whatever, then lay the chalk? Isnt this like the typical mistake of a bettor? Buy into the hype train with very little evidence/data to go by?

Aldrich appears to be a low volume striker to me. A left hand power shot is the only thing she does, and I really don't see much power there. Barber is much more active and tends to throw quite a few kicks. Barber easily has strength and athleticism advantage. Barber has elbows from the clinch and killer elbows from top position. Barber can get the fight down with clinches and body locks. Barber is moving up to 125 after diet issues at 115. She supposedly was never fighting close to her potential because she was at such a calorie deficit with her diet. Aldrich is also moving up for some reason even though she wasn't a very big 115lber.

I agree that buying into prospect hype is a mistake, especially on a young unproven fighter. But I think that is more relevant in male fighters. Not trying to be sexist, but the lack of power and sometimes downright lack of skill in women's mma makes it easier to bet on an inexperienced fighter. There usually isn't as high of a chance of a better fighter getting caught and ko'd like there is with male fighters. I think the talent pool for female fighters is so small that there is still a huge disparity in talent between top female fighters and mid/low level fighters. I see this as one of those scenarios.

And the other option is I'm f*cking way off on this and will come back with my tail between my legs wishing I had listened to you!!

[bjpenn85]

Aldrich appears to be a low volume striker to me. A left hand power shot is the only thing she does, and I really don't see much power there. Barber is much more active and tends to throw quite a few kicks. Barber easily has strength and athleticism advantage. Barber has elbows from the clinch and killer elbows from top position. Barber can get the fight down with clinches and body locks. Barber is moving up to 125 after diet issues at 115. She supposedly was never fighting close to her potential because she was at such a calorie deficit with her diet. Aldrich is also moving up for some reason even though she wasn't a very big 115lber.


I agree that buying into prospect hype is a mistake, especially on a young unproven fighter. But I think that is more relevant in male fighters. Not trying to be sexist, but the lack of power and sometimes downright lack of skill in women's mma makes it easier to bet on an inexperienced fighter. There usually isn't as high of a chance of a better fighter getting caught and ko'd like there is with male fighters. I think the talent pool for female fighters is so small that there is still a huge disparity in talent between top female fighters and mid/low level fighters. I see this as one of those scenarios.

And the other option is I'm f*cking way off on this and will come back with my tail between my legs wishing I had listened to you!!

we will see, i mean hopefully your right. you have some key points, if you have done a good job research your analysis may be more accurate as i havent really looked into this so deep, i see more value maybe at makdessi at the same price range and also blaydes, but there you will have more downsides with a potential flash KO that you want have in female mma so it all depend i guess of how your weighting the positives.

[TPowell]

These prop prices suck. Will wait until they can beat around and see if I can find anything. Looking for the following

Mitchell by DEC at +375 or so
Peterson by DEC at +475 or so
Maia by DEC at +200 or so
Vera NOT by DEC at -200 or so

[TPowell]

Aldrich appears to be a low volume striker to me. A left hand power shot is the only thing she does, and I really don't see much power there. Barber is much more active and tends to throw quite a few kicks. Barber easily has strength and athleticism advantage. Barber has elbows from the clinch and killer elbows from top position. Barber can get the fight down with clinches and body locks. Barber is moving up to 125 after diet issues at 115. She supposedly was never fighting close to her potential because she was at such a calorie deficit with her diet. Aldrich is also moving up for some reason even though she wasn't a very big 115lber.

I agree that buying into prospect hype is a mistake, especially on a young unproven fighter. But I think that is more relevant in male fighters. Not trying to be sexist, but the lack of power and sometimes downright lack of skill in women's mma makes it easier to bet on an inexperienced fighter. There usually isn't as high of a chance of a better fighter getting caught and ko'd like there is with male fighters. I think the talent pool for female fighters is so small that there is still a huge disparity in talent between top female fighters and mid/low level fighters. I see this as one of those scenarios.

And the other option is I'm f*cking way off on this and will come back with my tail between my legs wishing I had listened to you!!

Don't underestimate JJ. She's long and moves very well. She may not throw a lot of volume but she's usually moving forward and keeping that range. Her technique is pretty good even if she has virtually no power on her shots. Her bottom game is solid and she has good cardio as well. This won't be a walk in the park for Barber, but she's definitely a solid prospect if she can get her striking up to par and get a bit better at getting the TD

[Thrilla]

A welterweight bout between former two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson and former WEC and UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[2][3]

A bantamweight bout between Martin Day and Chris Gutierrez was scheduled for the event. However, it was reported that Day was pulled from the bout due to injury and he was replaced by Ryan MacDonald.^[4]

Marlon Vera was expected to face Frankie Saenz in a bantamweight bout at UFC 235. However, the bout was cancelled on fight week when Vera pulled out due to illness.^[5] The pairing is now expected to take place at this event.^[6]

Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Gruetzemacher pulled out of their respective bouts, due to injury, against John Makdessi and Jesus Pinedo. Now Makdessi and Pinedo are scheduled to face each other.^[7]

[bjpenn85]

A welterweight bout between former two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson and former WEC and UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[2][3]

A bantamweight bout between Martin Day and Chris Gutierrez was scheduled for the event. However, it was reported that Day was pulled from the bout due to injury and he was replaced by Ryan MacDonald.^[4]

Marlon Vera was expected to face Frankie Saenz in a bantamweight bout at UFC 235. However, the bout was cancelled on fight week when Vera pulled out due to illness.^[5] The pairing is now expected to take place at this event.^[6]

Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Gruetzemacher pulled out of their respective bouts, due to injury, against John Makdessi and Jesus Pinedo. Now Makdessi and Pinedo are scheduled to face each other.^[7]

Do you have downs syndrom?

[Thrilla]

Do you have downs syndrom?

What's the problem? Why would you ask such ridiculous question?

[Thrilla]

Do you have downs syndrom?

Do you fukk your own mother?

[Thrilla]

Thanks for starting the thread Locky. I always liked your threads best.

you the man locker

Hahahaah BJpenn85 the losing pussy c*nt is butthurt now.

You mad bro?

[bjpenn85]

Do you fukk your own mother?

You post so much bullshit spam about nothingness i thought your dna material was altered a bit. maybe downs, maybe something else. Like, do you think people havent read wikipedia, where the fight card is, how do you think this is enlightening to anyone?

Every time you post this shiet it puts me off....like wtf? Whats next

J E S U S

[Thrilla]

You post so much bullshit spam about nothingness i thought your dna material was altered a bit. maybe downs, maybe something else. Like, do you think people havent read wikipedia, where the fight card is, how do you think this is enlightening to anyone?

Every time you post this shiet it puts me off....like wtf? Whats next

J E S U S

Yeah right sure shut your mouth idiot. What a nice stupid reason to defend your question whther I have "down syndrom". Motherfkker you are losing again and people saying they appreciate Locksmith's threads more got to you. Don't act like that event wiki background is simply the fight card. You ain't fooling nobody but yourself. Why is for example Hugo de Naranja giving those posts betpoints the last two weeks?

Why don't bump your road to 100k thread bitch. You lost your ass and now you come back acting like you own the fkking place. Cokksukker am I fkking posting this info in your private fkking mailbox? No! So shut the fkk up and maybe you could use the extra info about some of the bouts on a card.

LOL maybe you won't go bankrupt again. The fact you find that bullshit spam tells alot about your level as a capper. Pussy. Who did you challenge again in sportsbetting? Can't wait for you to challenge me so I can oust you with some downsyndrom back to where ever the fukk you were. Dumbass.

boohoo bjpenn was disappointed when he clicked on the thread and saw my post.

[bjpenn85]

Yeah right sure shut your mouth idiot. What a nice stupid reason to defend your question whther I have "down syndrom". Motherfkker you are losing again and people saying they appreciate Locksmith's threads more got to you. Don't act like that event wiki background is simply the fight card. You ain't fooling nobody but yourself. Why is for example Hugo de Naranja giving those posts betpoints the last two weeks?



Why don't bump your road to 100k thread bitch. You lost your ass and now you come back acting like you own the fkking place. Cokksukker am I fkking posting this info in your private fkking mailbox? No! So shut the fkk up and maybe you could use the extra info about some of the bouts on a card.

LOL maybe you won't go bankrupt again. The fact you find that bullshit spam tells alot about your level as a capper. Pussy. Who did you challenge again in sportsbetting? Can't wait for you to challenge me so I can oust you with some downsyndrom back to where ever the fukk you were. Dumbass.

boohoo bjpenn was disappointed when he clicked on the thread and saw my post.

haha, its a nice burn. I def lost like a motherfakker.

But anyway, thats not point is it?

I def like this response a hell a lot better than boring text from wikipedia that i read 3-4 weeks ago, yes absolutely!!!!

Doesnt give me anything terms of capping, its just spam. Deal with it buddy. Its of no value.

[Thrilla]

haha, its a nice burn. I def lost like a motherfakker.

But anyway, thats not point is it?

I def like this response a hell a lot better than boring text from wikipedia that i read 3-4 weeks ago, yes absolutely!!!!

Doesnt give me anything terms of capping, its just spam. Deal with it buddy. Its of no value.

Took you long to respond all of the sudden?

Yeah I think we are all wiser about how much little value to put on the shit that comes out of your mouth. Oh did you really read it 3-4 weeks ago? Can you believe this guy acting like we all signed a contract to solely help his bitchass win money. Go fukk yourself.

[Shagdogy]

^ It’s this back and forth stuff that clogs up the capping. You all have too much free time? I barely have time to get to all the fights. About those fights...

Hill vs Markos. Hate to play a favorite in WMMA but how many times do you think Markos lands enough TDs and top control to win this fight? Needs to take 2 rounds. Couldn’t do it vs Grasso or Ansaroff. Couldn’t do it vs Rodriguez. She only out grapples and defeats other willing grapplers but women who prefer space and striking she struggles to impose her game on outside of round 1. Hill has good cardio and good enough getups that she’s going to rack up the edge towards the decision as long as she’s not pinned. I think she prob wins this fight 7/10 times, by decision almost every time.

Turbo - any thoughts on this one?

[bjpenn85]

Took you long to respond all of the sudden?

Yeah I think we are all wiser about how much little value to put on the shit that comes out of your mouth. Oh did you really read it 3-4 weeks ago? Can you believe this guy acting like we all signed a contract to solely help his bitchass win money. Go fukk yourself.

You got your deserved three piece and a soda

[Thrilla]

Shagdog lol I knew someone would start hating on the clogging. I'm sorry but this asshole believes the forum is called bjpenn85review.com. Just a little exposing of the selfish loser for all to notice. When we post in these event threads we think of everybody not just posting for bjc*nt85 to help him get rich...worse part is he expects us to read his mind to determine whether he already knows the information so we don't disappoint him when we post. lol Unreal. Nothing a palm strike to the nose can't fix though, to humble his selfish ass.

[HurlSweatPants]

^ It’s this back and forth stuff that clogs up the capping. You all have too much free time? I barely have time to get to all the fights. About those fights...

Hill vs Markos. Hate to play a favorite in WMMA but how many times do you think Markos lands enough TDs and top control to win this fight? Needs to take 2 rounds. Couldn’t do it vs Grasso or Ansaroff. Couldn’t do it vs Rodriguez. She only out grapples and defeats other willing grapplers but women who prefer space and striking she struggles to impose her game on outside of round 1. Hill has good cardio and good enough getups that she’s going to rack up the edge towards the decision as long as she’s not pinned. I think she prob wins this fight 7/10 times, by decision almost every time.

Turbo - any thoughts on this one?

Shaggy, I know you asked for Turbo but I have been breaking this one down a little and would love to offer the little input I have so far.

Based on the lines, there is no way I can play this, and if I had to gun to head, maybe Markos by Dec (+185) holds the slightest value. Hill by dec was -108 as of yesterday, and the fact that the fight is -450 that it will go the distance is telling. Although its is most probable that Hill wins by dec, there is no way I am laying anything but plus money. I will wait for the HC lines and see where Hill stands at -3.5, even then I still don't think there is a solid play to be made. Maybe Gutierrez and Hill parlay, SU to avoid any shit judging.

As far as the breakdown, I thought Markos was promising earlier in her career, even though she was taking some tough losses. She tends to scrap more so than having a game plan, and I think this is a pretty bad match up for her. Hill is going to be on her bike the entire fight, and has shown above average TDD, including doing pretty well against Casey, who is unarguably stronger than Markos, and Subbed Markos for her lone MMA non decision.

Hill has also gone to a dec in her last 7 fights, so you can look at it either way, she isn't likely to be sub/kod, but she also isn't likely to do the same to her opponent. She is a former Kickboxing Champion, and that is clearly her bread and butter. I liken her to Dodson, she a point fighter and looks and sounds like she is doing more damage than she actually is.

Markos and Hill have common opponents, not a fan of MMA math, but Casey bulldozed and subbed her in the first round of their fight. I think Casey has improved since then, and couldn't really do much to Hill in their bout. Markos really has looked pedestrian in her last 4, even though her opponents were average IMO (not including Ansaroff).

The one reservation I have, and the reason for me passing, is that Hills fight are so hard to score, so I can see her winning for 4 minutes of the first, but then getting taken down or even clinched up, and "giving" a round away in the eyes of the judges. Hell, these MFers have Gunnar a 29-28 last week. Because this fight will almost assuredly go the distance, I think Hill probably wins 30-27, but there is always the 29-28 scenario. In saying this, watch Hill or Markos come out and get a SUB in the first minute, and f up some parlays.

[firekillex]

Wonderboy by decision +157
more i think about it and see him in interviews talking about the 170 division opening up and his last chance, i think he hunts a finish here

[Shagdogy]

Shaggy, I know you asked for Turbo but I have been breaking this one down a little and would love to offer the little input I have so far.

Based on the lines, there is no way I can play this, and if I had to gun to head, maybe Markos by Dec (+185) holds the slightest value. Hill by dec was -108 as of yesterday, and the fact that the fight is -450 that it will go the distance is telling. Although its is most probable that Hill wins by dec, there is no way I am laying anything but plus money. I will wait for the HC lines and see where Hill stands at -3.5, even then I still don't think there is a solid play to be made. Maybe Gutierrez and Hill parlay, SU to avoid any shit judging.

As far as the breakdown, I thought Markos was promising earlier in her career, even though she was taking some tough losses. She tends to scrap more so than having a game plan, and I think this is a pretty bad match up for her. Hill is going to be on her bike the entire fight, and has shown above average TDD, including doing pretty well against Casey, who is unarguably stronger than Markos, and Subbed Markos for her lone MMA non decision.

Hill has also gone to a dec in her last 7 fights, so you can look at it either way, she isn't likely to be sub/kod, but she also isn't likely to do the same to her opponent. She is a former Kickboxing Champion, and that is clearly her bread and butter. I liken her to Dodson, she a point fighter and looks and sounds like she is doing more damage than she actually is.

Markos and Hill have common opponents, not a fan of MMA math, but Casey bulldozed and subbed her in the first round of their fight. I think Casey has improved since then, and couldn't really do much to Hill in their bout. Markos really has looked pedestrian in her last 4, even though her opponents were average IMO (not including Ansaroff).

The one reservation I have, and the reason for me passing, is that Hills fight are so hard to score, so I can see her winning for 4 minutes of the first, but then getting taken down or even clinched up, and "giving" a round away in the eyes of the judges. Hell, these MFers have Gunnar a 29-28 last week. Because this fight will almost assuredly go the distance, I think Hill probably wins 30-27, but there is always the 29-28 scenario. In saying this, watch Hill or Markos come out and get a SUB in the first minute, and f up some parlays.

Always appreciate the input. Seems to me like you’re relatively confident in the fight playing out in such a way that YOU would judge it for Hill, but you’re afraid you can’t trust the judges and therefore wouldn’t pay juice.

I get it, but scared money doesn’t make money. You can’t bet with the expectation of a bad decision. This fight is not in Markos’s home town. It’s not even in her home country. It’s not in a location that’s notorious for poor judging. IMO - it’s fair to lower your confidence level a bit because a fight is likely to go to the cards and may seem close. I wouldn’t fault you if you lay off entirely for that reason, but seeing a clear edge for Hill and yet betting Markos would be a big overcorrection I think.

Question: if YOU were judging this fight, how many times out of 10 do you think your eyes would see Hill as the winner?

[Thrilla]

[HurlSweatPants]

Always appreciate the input. Seems to me like you’re relatively confident in the fight playing out in such a way that YOU would judge it for Hill, but you’re afraid you can’t trust the judges and therefore wouldn’t pay juice.

I get it, but scared money doesn’t make money. You can’t bet with the expectation of a bad decision. This fight is not in Markos’s home town. It’s not even in her home country. It’s not in a location that’s notorious for poor judging. IMO - it’s fair to lower your confidence level a bit because a fight is likely to go to the cards and may seem close. I wouldn’t fault you if you lay off entirely for that reason, but seeing a clear edge for Hill and yet betting Markos would be a big overcorrection I think.

Question: if YOU were judging this fight, how many times out of 10 do you think your eyes would see Hill as the winner?

True that, never scared, cautiously optimistic. It's more so a combination of Hills style that is keeping me from betting, the judging, esp. recently is the added "perk". You're right though about the over correction, to answer your question, I see Hill winning 6 or 7 out of 10. The X factor would be Markos ability to make it dirty, if she can close the distance, big IF, I think she could score a round or 2. But like you said, she had a hard time doing it against lesser opponents.

If anything, after reading our discussion, and had to make play, I would play Hill SU, either laying the juice or parlaying with one other match.

Based on line value, I couldn't argue if someone took a stab at Markos dec though. Again, if she has a decent GP to rush and pressure Hill, I think that she can steal 8 minutes of the fight. I don't think Hill has the power to keep Markos at bay the whole fight if she were to rush. Hill has solid jab and keeps pretty good distance with her kicks, but lacks KO power. Still, the only almost certain in this fight to me is that it goes the distance, and sure as hell not laying -400+.

Side note: thought it was funny that after Australia, Willis said he isn't fighting anywhere small and never outside of the US again. While he did get half of what he wanted, ends up getting Nashville, TN. On the bright side, guess that is slightly better than Wichita?

[Enfuego]

Watching Angela Hill fight makes me fight to keep my eyes open. She makes me sleepy.

[Shagdogy]

Hurl - if you think she wins 6 or 7 out of 10, let’s average that to 65%. That would be a line of -185, so a little value there on Hill.

If you think Markos wins 35% (based on having Hill at 65%), then that’s a line of +185. Now you have to give her SOME chance of getting the finish. Let’s say a super conservative 5%. So that means she wins specifically by decision 30% of the time. 30% odds = +233 yet the decision prop is only paying +175. If your numbers are correct (and if we are winning bettors our numbers have to be correct more than the bookies, at least when we bet), then that’s negative line value. Can’t play it.

Looking at it this way, Hill is the only playable side. That is IF we trust the odds we put on these events.

[Sanity Check]

Wonderboy predicts finishing Anthony Pettis in round 1.

[JIBBBY]

Watching Angela Hill fight makes me fight to keep my eyes open. She makes me sleepy.

She's tough and hard to finish, she can't finish fights herself on the flip either..

Talk about a decision machine.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Angela-Hill-148517

1903 Markos / Hill goes 3 round distance

-450

[HurlSweatPants]

Hurl - if you think she wins 6 or 7 out of 10, let’s average that to 65%. That would be a line of -185, so a little value there on Hill.

If you think Markos wins 35% (based on having Hill at 65%), then that’s a line of +185. Now you have to give her SOME chance of getting the finish. Let’s say a super conservative 5%. So that means she wins specifically by decision 30% of the time. 30% odds = +233 yet the decision prop is only paying +175. If your numbers are correct (and if we are winning bettors our numbers have to be correct more than the bookies, at least when we bet), then that’s negative line value. Can’t play it.

Looking at it this way, Hill is the only playable side. That is IF we trust the odds we put on these events.

Yezzir, and while 5% may be conservative, you could moderately round up to 10 (9.9% based on a 1-11 record of WGTD), so that skews the line even further for Hill. Might be too much talk for a play that I am not confident in making, but yes after more consideration and as I stated above, Hill SU or Hill/Guit might be worth a look.

[Demonata]

Shagdog lol I knew someone would start hating on the clogging. I'm sorry but this asshole believes the forum is called bjpenn85review.com. Just a little exposing of the selfish loser for all to notice. When we post in these event threads we think of everybody not just posting for bjc*nt85 to help him get rich...worse part is he expects us to read his mind to determine whether he already knows the information so we don't disappoint him when we post. lol Unreal. Nothing a palm strike to the nose can't fix though, to humble his selfish ass.

You are annoying as fuk!

[Thrilla]

You are annoying as fuk!

Revisiting the site again now. I would have bet money on you to quote post me. Motherfkker I told you to shut your inbred cancerous mouth. When people smarter than you tell you to shut up you do it.

You seriously think people don't know after so many years you are dumbest person on SBR? Nobody cares what you have to say about anything.

[Sanity Check]

Sergio Pettis talked about being 170 lbs inbetween fights @ 125.

Anthony Pettis @ 170 could be him following the same diet plan as his bro.

Good thing / bad thing?

.

[The HOFF]

^ It’s this back and forth stuff that clogs up the capping. You all have too much free time? I barely have time to get to all the fights. About those fights...

Hill vs Markos. Hate to play a favorite in WMMA but how many times do you think Markos lands enough TDs and top control to win this fight? Needs to take 2 rounds. Couldn’t do it vs Grasso or Ansaroff. Couldn’t do it vs Rodriguez. She only out grapples and defeats other willing grapplers but women who prefer space and striking she struggles to impose her game on outside of round 1. Hill has good cardio and good enough getups that she’s going to rack up the edge towards the decision as long as she’s not pinned. I think she prob wins this fight 7/10 times, by decision almost every time.

Turbo - any thoughts on this one?

I watched a few fights of these two and didn’t see a big advantage for either. If I had to choose, it would be Hill. She has the advantage in the standup. She will have to keep moving all 3 rounds. Markos doesn’t have great takedowns. But her go to takedown is a headlock judo throw. She has tried it multiple times near the fence and actually ends up on bottom sometimes. If she can catch Hill, I think she can overpower her and use that throw to get her down, then ride out the round. That’s only if she can catch her and get hands on her, which I’m not sure she can.

[Thrilla]

She's tough and hard to finish, she can't finish fights herself on the flip either..

Talk about a decision machine.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Angela-Hill-148517

1903 Markos / Hill goes 3 round distance

-450

I'm guessing "Always bet on Black" is the deciding factor here?

[Shagdogy]

I watched a few fights of these two and didn’t see a big advantage for either. If I had to choose, it would be Hill. She has the advantage in the standup. She will have to keep moving all 3 rounds. Markos doesn’t have great takedowns. But her go to takedown is a headlock judo throw. She has tried it multiple times near the fence and actually ends up on bottom sometimes. If she can catch Hill, I think she can overpower her and use that throw to get her down, then ride out the round. That’s only if she can catch her and get hands on her, which I’m not sure she can.

The head/arm throw is terrible and pretty much only exists in WMMA (except Oleinik). She’s going to need more TD diversity, and I don’t see it yet from her.

[Shagdogy]

Hill down to -150 is gonna have me putting my money where my mouth is.

[firekillex]

Sergio Pettis talked about being 170 lbs inbetween fights @ 125.

Anthony Pettis @ 170 could be him following the same diet plan as his bro.

Good thing / bad thing?

.

highly doubt sergio pettis gets up to 170lbs hes 5'5 and isnt big whatsoever ... i could see 160 max
Pettis looked good at weigh ins though he actually looked bigger than i thought he was going too.. Wonderboy is a pretty big 170er and he didnt look tiny beside him.... going to be an interesting fight but i still think Wonderboy has this ... round 3-4 tko

[Sanity Check]

highly doubt sergio pettis gets up to 170lbs

UFC on FOX 31: Sergio Pettis Says He Could Get Up To 172 Pounds Between Fights At Flyweight

.

Go tell him he's not 170+.

He seems to not have gotten the memo.