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OSP looked awful and very timid early in that fight. In fairness, Volkan was on very short notice and seemed to gas but OSP put it on him late which isn't a good look. I just don't think Volkan could win a round 3 or come close against Reyes. He may be able to hurt him early but Reyes is a tough young kid who can probably overcome itOriginally Posted by turbozed
MMAMANIA part 1 - Prelims..
185 lbs.: Tom Breese vs. Ian Heinisch
Tom Breese (11-1) burst onto the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) scene with brutal knockouts of Luiz Dutra Jr. and Cathal Pendred, then followed them up with a decision over the durable Keita Nakamura. A controversial split decision loss to Sean Strickland prompted a move to 185 pounds, where he took out Dan Kelly in May 2018.
He has gone past the second round just three times as a professional, submitting six opponents.
Ian Heinisch went from winning the interim LFA Middleweight title to brutalizing Justin Sumter on “Contender Series” in the span of three months. He made his Octagon debut soon after, upsetting the resurgent Cezar Ferreira in Buenos Aires.
He replaces the injured Ferreira, who himself replaced the injured Alessio Di Chirico, on just over a month’s notice.
As intimidating as Heinisch is, Breese appears perfectly equipped to take him out. I’ve noted in the past that Heinisch tends to just burst into range with haymakers rather than employ set ups, and the 6’3” Breese has the range and blistering one-two combination to punish that all night. In addition, Breese is a stout wrestler in his own right, and though Heinisch looks the physically stronger of the two, Breese’s range management should give him plenty of time to snuff out “The Hurricane’s” double-legs and secure some takedowns of his own.
Breese is just too rangy and too good at doing damage from long distance for Heinisch’s face-first onslaught to work. The Brit clips him coming in and secures another submission once he’s hurt.
Prediction: Breese via second-round submission
145 lbs.: Dan Ige vs. Danny Henry
Dan Ige (10-2) gritted his way past Luis Gomez on “Contender Series” to earn a contract, but came up short against fellow alumnus Julio Arce in his Octagon debut. “Dynamite” went on to defeat two more “Contenders Series” participants in 2018, pounding out Mike Santiago in 50 seconds before out-grinding Jordan Griffin in Dec. 2018.
He is five inches shorter than Henry, though their reaches are the same.
Danny Henry (12-2) avenged his lone defeat to win the EFC Featherweight belt before his Octagon debut, which saw him survive early artillery to beat down the favored Daniel Teymur in a “Fight of the Night.” He was even more impressive in his next bout, dropping and choking out top prospect Hakeen Dawodu in just 39 seconds.
This will be the first fight for “The Hatchet” in 364 days.
Honestly, not sure where to go with this one. Ige’s tough as nails and has the wrestling to ruin Henry’s night, but “The Hatchet” is way taller and has a habit of making me look stupid. Though I’ll admit I use the phrase “nothing would surprise me” way too much, it genuinely applies here.
Henry had to fight through a lot of adversity against a shorter man in Teymur, and while Ige is nowhere near that caliber of striker, he’s not going to get tired and has the submission defense to avoid Henry’s front chokes. Ige grinds him out against the fence and from top position for another gritty decision win.
Prediction: Ige via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Molly McCann
Priscilla Cachoeira (8-1) was supposed to debut in Dec. 2017 against Lauren Murphy, but **** issues led to a bout with Valentina Shevchenko in the latter’s Flyweight debut. Shevchenko wound up dishing out one of the most one-sided beatings in women’s MMA history before Mario Yamasaki finally intervened.
This will be her first fight since that loss 13 months ago.
Molly McCann (7-2) smashed Bryony Tyrell last year to earn the Cage Warriors Flyweight title and extend her win streak to six. Her Octagon debut was a double dose of misfortune, however, as “Meatball” missed weight and was subsequently choked out by Gillian Robertson.
Four of her seven professional wins have come via (technical) knockout.
I genuinely believe that McCann is better than she looked against Robertson. She’s a very solid boxer with decent power and takedown defense that, while not great, generally holds up pretty well. Cachoeira, on the other hand, has little to offer besides remarkable durability.
McCann is the crisper striker by a huge margin, won’t have to worry about the ground game, and isn’t coming off the beating of a lifetime. She pieces up Cachoeira all night.
Prediction: McCann via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Nad Narimani vs. Mike Grundy
Nad Narimani (12-2) unsuccessfully challenged Alex Enlund for the Cage Warriors Featherweight title in 2014, but came back three fights later to run roughshod over Paddy Pimblett and take home the belt. He’s gone perfect (2-0) in the Octagon, defeating top prospect Khalid Taha and veteran Anderson Dos Santos in subsequent bouts.
“Smiler” has submitted five opponents and knocked out another two.
Mike Grundy (11-1) took part in the 2014 Commonwealth Games, ultimately taking bronze in freestyle wrestling at 74 kg. Though he lost to future UFC competitor Damian Stasiak six months into his professional career, he enters the Octagon on an eight-fight win streak.
This will be his first fight since Nov. 2017.
Grundy’s wrestling pedigree and wins over the likes of Shooto standout Yutaka Saito, judo expert Michael Tobin, and The Ultimate Fighter: “Brazil” 4 runner-up Fernando Bruno make him an intriguing prospect. Narimani looks like too stiff a test, unfortunately; “Smiler” is a stout wrestler in his own right and neither Grundy’s striking nor his passing game have caught up with his takedown ability.
Narimani is sharper on the mat and the feet, and so long as he doesn’t leave his neck open to Grundy’s arm triangle or front chokes, should be able to edge Grundy with his physicality and versatility. Either Grundy grinds him out from full/half guard or Narimani boxes and scrambles his way to a competitive decision. I’d say expect the latter.
Prediction: Narimani via unanimous decision
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Three plays so far for myself. Waiting on these props.
Reyes/McCann ML parlay (+112) for 1.5 units
Roberts ML (+145) for 2 units
Quinonez ML (+185) for 2 units and +235 for 1 unit
I also like MCCann, i dont understand why more people talk about the glaaaring hole in her opponents armor. There are a lot of money to be earned at womens mma now, since the sport is so underdeveloped.
Good price on Roberts as well, Silva is so damn dangerous though, so its def a bet where one will sweat a little, but its a smart play imo. I mean, your bet is a winning bet from first second. I like those.
Danny Roberts is gonna get rolled.. I'm on the Brazilian and maybe by sub.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clau...da-Silva-25830
You may be right. I think if Gunnar gets to him on the feet, and it hits the ground, Edwards isn't coming back from that. Even when he rocked Jouban on the feet, his first instinct was to sub him out instead of gnp. The problem I am having is, Gunnar seems really hittable, if you are hedging with Edwards, a dec or KO is not as clear cut. But I would be really surprised if Gunnar wins a DEC for multiple reasons.
I look at this fight much like the Oliveria/Teymur fight, Gunnar has the undeniable adv. on the ground. Like you said in an earlier post, are you willing to take the 135 to see?
I haven't deciced, like most waiting on props, but if I do play the Gunnar fight, I might just go small on SUB as opposed to 135/140 to win SU
Gamebred reminds me of a Nick Diaz and not a Paul Daley. He's a striker, so he's gonna strike with the kid in Till. Gamebred believes his stand up game is better, so we gonna find out.
Let's gooooooo GAMEBRED!!
Gunnar Nelson, if he gets one takedown, like a solid one, he can most likely submit Edwards. Nelson is a type of bjj wizard that doesnt really care if youre a black belt or really good in bjj, he just takes you down, improves position, and he fakkin punishes you with lethal elbows, not only like he did in his last fight, but he has done this to other people as well. Really painful and damaging elbows, where even i go...ohh jesus, this is a littble bit brutal. So, to bet against Gunnar is not the way to go here, may be a dec, although its not the most likely event, but it may happen as well. Its a tough fight to bet. If you can get Gunnar round +140 +150, you treat it like its a 50/50 fight and you have the odds on your side, but if youre betting Edwards and hope to see him win a dec or KO at this price, good luck, its risky as fakk and i dont see the value there.
I disagree. Although Nelson is dangerous, he is hittable on the feet and isn't much of a takedown artist. Edwards is a great roundwinner and he's never been submitted. He's more technical than Nelson in the standup and has good wins over guys like Cerrone and Luque. Nelson is no bum and he's certainly dangerous but I think it's Submission or Bust for him here.
Yup, I'm locked and loaded.. At over 2-1 odds you gotta try it..
I'm giving Masvidal a decent chance of winning in this one.. Till is still young and bit raw. Masvidal proven and experience vet..
Odds got better and I hit it just now..
$100.00 $220.00 Pending 3/16/19 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Jorge Masvidal +220* vs Darren Till
Probably in this scrap. Will be hard for Volkan to pull off a decision win in this one.. I agree.
I like it, waiting to see what Till dec. is priced at.
He has definitely stole the show for me this card as far as persona, love the interview he has with Hardy and Till, and loved the interview with he, Till, and Edwards where he asks for the wifi password after Till and Edwards were going at it. You can tell he is so immune to this shit.
Like Chael said, I have no doubt he wants to go in there and slug it out, but for his sake, and just to see where Till is at now, I would like to see this fight hit the ground.
Til decision prop is the only way to hedge this fight if you are on Masvidal, I agree.. I would take it but since Til is a 2-1 favorite I don't see those Dec odds being all that great and worth the hedge play.. It's also EXTREMELY hard to put away Masvidal and the odds makers know this..
Masvidal straight and maybe ITD will be my only plays on this fight most likely..
Till was +175 overseas last night (by DEC)
If that's the case Tpow it might be worth the hedge play to cover your asss both ways then.
But edwards may be even more inactive due to the threat of the takedown. In vacuum he will win a striking contest, but since it is mma, these types of matchup may change the fight. But, it might not be, maybe Edwards will just defend every takedown, nelson will loose faith, and accept a striking contest hes destined to loose. But you will need to excercise the possibility that that may happen, and is quite likely from a matchup perspective, in this fight specifically maybe im wrong, but thats how i think.
Edwards should outstrike nelson, Nelson should not get takedowns, but im not willing to bet money that thats in fact going to happen. Nelson may also just turn up to be a little better than we believe in the standup department, maybe enough with his power to make edwards respect it, and then just for a second forget that Nelson is not here to trade, he slips in some kind of half ass takedown and then boom mount, fights over, you were 99,9% correct, until Nelson got the sub, and you were wrong. Ive lost this kinds of bets 100000 of times. Im not going to do it. haha. Im not willing.
Same with Roberts, hes winning every bit of that fight until Silvas in his relentless pursuit, succeed with only one takedown out of 15 shots he got within 15 minutes. Their both going to get the takedown you know. Its more about, is it possible to defend, and make your opponent loose faith that this strategy is going to work out.
Im not into that fakking roulette game. Im out.
Edwards totally neutralized two excellent finishers in Cerrone and Luque. His only losses are to Usman and a highly debatable Split Decision to Claudio Silva. Think he takes this one but would consider Nelson Submission as a hedge. Think Edwards Decision is a play and I'm pretty solidly on his ML.
Nelsons striking is a lot better than Silvas, if Nelson only had as bad striking as Silva, i would be ok with that bet. But Edwards has a much clearer path to victory than Roberts. Edwards is a very very solid fighter, and i expect him to win tbh, Daniel Roberts is not the same type of quality.
Is anybody else loving Rinaldi? I think he's going to blanket Allen all night after watching the past couple fights of each. Rinaldi will definitely have a considerable size advantage over Allen and Allen was taken down whenever Mads Burnell wanted until he left his neck out too long. Burnell isn't even in the UFC any longer. Rinaldi is 2-2 in the UFC but his loses are to Gillespie and a short notice loss to Abel Trujillo in his debut almost 3 years ago.
Told myself to lay off this card but ended up throwing a small play on Reyes just to remind myself to watch this card . Very Small parlay Till/ Reyes but please feel free to fade me because I’m not sold on Till. Decided to not touch Edwards/ Gunnar. First look Edwards but Gunnar seems too Dangerous after watching more of his fights , however he needs to watch out with that karate bs.
I am at +odds.. I don't trust alot of the English based fighters, their records are inflated and I'm banking alot of non Brit dogs cash on this card!!
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jordan-Rinaldi-53815
The Silva fight was a robbery if you haven't watched it. Edwards should be 9-1 in the UFC with his only loss to Usman.
http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision...s-Leon-Edwards
Damn, the Nelson line almost even ATM. Lot'a action.
If you're thinking about taking Edwards SU, now might be the time.
I'll probably put a little on Edwards by DEC if its close to +175 or so
Better hope the fights aren't half way close because they'll screw you
I got screwed last event by crazy KO's with fighters like Tim Means.. It happens.. Doesn't happen with every event though when I bet them.. Thank God!!..
Darren Till is looking much improved from where he was when he fought Woodley for the belt.
Simplest form of looking good is shadow boxing without gloves because your hands are nearly weightless BUT, even then, i would say, hands looks extremely quick and sharp.
Part 2 -
145 lbs.: Arnold Allen vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Arnold Allen (13-1) — whose only pre-Octagon loss came against future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Marcin Wrzosek — made his Octagon debut in 2015 with a comeback submission of Alan Omer, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. He’s won all three of his subsequent bouts, including another bonus-winning tapout against submission specialist Mads Burnell.
“Almighty” will give up two inches of height and reach to Jordan Rinaldi (14-6).
Rinaldi fell short in his audition for TUF 15, but got a shot in the Octagon via late notice debut against Abel Trujillo. Though he lost a competitive decision, he has since won two of three, a loss to top prospect Gregor Gillespie sandwiched between wins over Álvaro Herrera and Jason Knight.
He has submitted eight opponents, including a Von Flue finish of Herrera.
Neither man is particularly eye-catching in any specific area, but Allen looks to be the stronger of the two. Rinaldi doesn’t have the wrestling to exploit “Almighty’s” biggest flaw, his takedown defense, and Allen is the busier striker by a fair margin. With neither being likely to finish with strikes, Allen’s volume may be all he needs.
Both men are generalists, which could make for an entertainingly varied fight. Expect Allen’s youth, output, and sneaky submissions to overcome Rinaldi’s occasional takedown and secure the decision
Prediction: Allen via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Marc Diakiese vs. Joe Duffy
Marc Diakiese (12-3) cemented his top prospect status with wins in each of his first three Octagon bouts, capped off by a one-punch finish of Teemu Packalen that earned “Performance of the Night.” He enters the cage on Saturday winless in his last three, though, most recently suffering a one-sided loss to Nasrat Haqparast in the latter’s hometown of Hamburg.
Six of his eight stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
“Irish” Joe Duffy (16-3) — who made his name with professional boxing experience and a win over Conor McGregor — won four of his first five Octagon bouts, the sole loss a bloody war with Dustin Poirier. This earned him a crack at the surging James Vick, who defied the odds to catch Duffy with an uppercut and pound him out late in the second round.
This will be his first fight in 16 months.
The ship appears to have sailed on Diakiese, and his recent move from American Top Team to a smaller camp doesn’t inspire confidence that he can turn things around. His technical striking hasn’t caught up to his explosiveness and his wrestling, which generally serves as a fallback, has proven insufficient at the highest levels.
And on top of that, it’s a horrible style match up.
Duffy’s slick boxing should keep him clear of Diakiese’s bombs and he’s lethal enough on the mat to punish any desperate shots. There’s also the possibility of Duffy bringing his own takedowns to bear should Diakiese get overeager to close the distance. Barring a stunning one-punch finish from “Bonecrusher,” Duffy outclasses him everywhere.
Prediction: Duffy via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Sabarbeg Safarov vs. Nick Negumereanu
Sabarbeg Safarov (8-2) debuted on short notice in 2016, falling to Gian Villante in a wild battle that earned “Fight of the Night.” Thirteen months later, he returned to the cage against Tyson Pedro and tapped to a kimura late in the first round.
All but one of his eight stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Romania’s Nick Negumereanu (9-0) has yet to see the judges either, dispatching all nine of his pro opponents in 10 minutes or fewer. He’s finished three opponents by submission and six via (technical) knockout, including one via slam.
He replaces the injured Gokhan Saki on short notice.
Negumereanu has fought a total of three men with winning records. Other opponents include Yuri Gorbenko (12-4-1), Kovacs Kalman (2-15), and most recently Dan Konecke (10-13), who was on a four-fight losing streak. He’s strong, aggressive and can dish out some solid ground-and-pound, but it’s hard to get a bead on him when he’s only fought low-level opposition and looked mediocre doing so.
Even if Safarov is winless (0-2) in the Octagon, he at least got the experience and showed some decent power. Negumereanu just too raw, too untested, and too easy to hit. Safarov finally enters UFC win column with an early knockout.
Prediction: Safarov via first-round knockout
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 31-16
Thanks Jibby, TP and so many others for your contributions to this thread. The combined thoughts give me an excellent overview of the matches. I truly appreciate the hard work and generosity of you all.
WHIFF:
185 lbs.: Tom Breese vs. Ian Heinisch
Prediction: Breese via second-round submission
Tom Breese (11-1) burst onto the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) scene with brutal knockouts of Luiz Dutra Jr. and Cathal Pendred, then followed them up with a decision over the durable Keita Nakamura. A controversial split decision loss to Sean Strickland prompted a move to 185 pounds, where he took out Dan Kelly in May 2018.
He has gone past the second round just three times as a professional, submitting six opponents.
Ian Heinisch went from winning the interim LFA Middleweight title to brutalizing Justin Sumter on “Contender Series” in the span of three months. He made his Octagon debut soon after, upsetting the resurgent Cezar Ferreira in Buenos Aires.
He replaces the injured Ferreira, who himself replaced the injured Alessio Di Chirico, on just over a month’s notice.
As intimidating as Heinisch is, Breese appears perfectly equipped to take him out. I’ve noted in the past that Heinisch tends to just burst into range with haymakers rather than employ set ups, and the 6’3” Breese has the range and blistering one-two combination to punish that all night. In addition, Breese is a stout wrestler in his own right, and though Heinisch looks the physically stronger of the two, Breese’s range management should give him plenty of time to snuff out “The Hurricane’s” double-legs and secure some takedowns of his own.
Breese is just too rangy and too good at doing damage from long distance for Heinisch’s face-first onslaught to work. The Brit clips him coming in and secures another submission once he’s hurt.
There will be no submission here.......
I've always been impressed w Edwards and still remember when Tumenov got cut after his loss to him...I don't think they respected Rocky back then, but I did.... Tumenov had been solid....He is also the last guy to beat Luque and I credit Rocky for adding gas to the Luque train.....that fight helped him......tough fight for me to call.........
Where are the props for this event? I'm not seeing any on 5Dimes or BestFightOdds.
patience will come sooner rather than later
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