1. 03-02-19 09:07 AM #1
    The HOFF
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    The HOFF’s MMA

    I used to bet MMA all the time quite a few years ago. But I lost interest and I’ve just kind of been betting casually for awhile. Well my interest has peaked again and I’ve been watching most of the fight cards and lurking on the forum. I want to get more serious with my bets and figure I should keep an accurate record. I’ve upped my unit size (bet, not rooster) and tightened my bet scale. Unit is a simple $50 bet for me and I want to keep bets within a 1-5u range with 5u being my max on top plays. Feel free to ridicule and shame when I’m buried after 2 events.
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  2. 03-02-19 09:13 AM #2
    The HOFF
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    UFC 235
    Tyron Woodley -150 (3u to win 2u)
    Ben Askren -3.5pts -130 (2.6u to win 2u)
    Weili Zhang -130 (5.2u to win 4u)
    Zhang ITD +333 (.5u to win 1.665u)
    Jones ITD/Askren/Chiasson (2u to win 2.08u)
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  3. 03-02-19 09:16 AM #3
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    welcome back HOFF gl
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  4. 03-02-19 09:30 AM #4
    HurlSweatPants
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    BOL Hoff.
    Last edited by HurlSweatPants; 03-02-19 at 09:38 AM.
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  5. 03-02-19 10:39 AM #5
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    welcome back HOFF gl
    Thanks. Been trying to get back on the poker tables too.
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  6. 03-02-19 10:41 AM #6
    The HOFF
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    Hurl I saw u were asking about Chiasson. She’s really just parlay fodder. Wouldn’t bet straight obviously, but TUF winner with size advantage and coming down to 135.
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  7. 03-02-19 10:43 AM #7
    The HOFF
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    Almost forgot. Not my bet, but a straight tail on Hugo.

    Diego Sanchez +285 (1u to win 2.85u)
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  8. 03-02-19 01:13 PM #8
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    UFC 235
    Tyron Woodley -150 (3u to win 2u)
    Ben Askren -3.5pts -130 (2.6u to win 2u)
    Weili Zhang -130 (5.2u to win 4u)
    Zhang ITD +333 (.5u to win 1.665u)
    Jones ITD/Askren/Chiasson (2u to win 2.08u)
    Looks good, good luck my man!
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  9. 03-02-19 01:17 PM #9
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    UFC 235
    Tyron Woodley -150 (3u to win 2u)
    Ben Askren -3.5pts -130 (2.6u to win 2u)
    Weili Zhang -130 (5.2u to win 4u)
    Zhang ITD +333 (.5u to win 1.665u)
    Jones ITD/Askren/Chiasson (2u to win 2.08u)
    I like the bets Hoff. Best of luck!
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  10. 03-02-19 02:00 PM #10
    Sanity Check
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    Awkward and uncomfortable HOFF memes from 2009 say: "hi".

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  11. 03-02-19 03:06 PM #11
    HurlSweatPants
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    Hurl I saw u were asking about Chiasson. She’s really just parlay fodder. Wouldn’t bet straight obviously, but TUF winner with size advantage and coming down to 135.
    Yeah man, confusion on my part, hadn't had coffee yet and was thinking of Cifers. Thought it was a balsy play, seeing how everyone is on Polyana.

    I agree, wouldn't lay that much on a fighter that is 3-0 with limited competition, but I hope she wins for your sake.
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  12. 03-03-19 03:06 PM #12
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    UFC 235
    Tyron Woodley -150 (3u to win 2u)
    Ben Askren -3.5pts -130 (2.6u to win 2u)
    Weili Zhang -130 (5.2u to win 4u)
    Zhang ITD +333 (.5u to win 1.665u)
    Jones ITD/Askren/Chiasson (2u to win 2.08u)
    Diego Sanchez +285 (1u to win 2.85u)
    3-3 +3.65u
    Bad call on Woodley, maybe lucky on Askren, but happy I hit my biggest play on Zhang. Would have been a great night if Jones could have finished ITD, damn it!
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  13. 03-03-19 03:13 PM #13
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    3-3 +3.65u
    Bad call on Woodley, maybe lucky on Askren, but happy I hit my biggest play on Zhang. Would have been a great night if Jones could have finished ITD, damn it!
    3.65u is solid. Nice job Hoff!
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  14. 03-03-19 03:16 PM #14
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    3.65u is solid. Nice job Hoff!
    Thanks to you! Ha!
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  15. 03-03-19 03:50 PM #15
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    3-3 +3.65u
    Bad call on Woodley, maybe lucky on Askren, but happy I hit my biggest play on Zhang. Would have been a great night if Jones could have finished ITD, damn it!
    Impressive hit on Zhang as well, hard fight to call for most people, but not for you!
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  16. 03-09-19 02:34 PM #16
    The HOFF
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    Had very little time to cap fights this week. Couldn't find anything I really liked. I do like Rothwell but not betting it after a 3 year layoff. Looked at the Reneau/Kunitskaya but can't see a discernible advantage. Reneau submission seems possible but couldn't pull the trigger. One small bet on the main event. Terrible line compared to others but need some action! Will probably be looking for some live betting.

    UFC on ESPN+ 4
    Junior Dos Santos -5.5pts -175 (1.75u to win 1u)
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  17. 03-09-19 03:03 PM #17
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    Had very little time to cap fights this week. Couldn't find anything I really liked. I do like Rothwell but not betting it after a 3 year layoff. Looked at the Reneau/Kunitskaya but can't see a discernible advantage. Reneau submission seems possible but couldn't pull the trigger. One small bet on the main event. Terrible line compared to others but need some action! Will probably be looking for some live betting.

    UFC on ESPN+ 4
    Junior Dos Santos -5.5pts -175 (1.75u to win 1u)
    Good luck to ya!
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  18. 03-09-19 04:04 PM #18
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    Had very little time to cap fights this week. Couldn't find anything I really liked. I do like Rothwell but not betting it after a 3 year layoff. Looked at the Reneau/Kunitskaya but can't see a discernible advantage. Reneau submission seems possible but couldn't pull the trigger. One small bet on the main event. Terrible line compared to others but need some action! Will probably be looking for some live betting.

    UFC on ESPN+ 4
    Junior Dos Santos -5.5pts -175 (1.75u to win 1u)
    Best of luck Hoff!
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  19. 03-09-19 04:08 PM #19
    The HOFF
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    Thanks guys. Will be nice to sit back and watch today and not be super stressed on bets.
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  20. 03-09-19 09:54 PM #20
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    UFC on ESPN+ 4
    Junior Dos Santos -5.5pts -175 (1.75u to win 1u)
    1-0 +1u

    Was able to get a live bet on Rothwell/Ivanov going the distance so turned out a good night for me.
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  21. 03-10-19 08:13 AM #21
    Enfuego
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    What is Junior Dos Santos -5.5 pts?
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  22. 03-10-19 12:31 PM #22
    HurlSweatPants
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    What is Junior Dos Santos -5.5 pts?
    It is a handicapped line that is mainly used for scorecards. If either fighter finishes the fight the -5.5 or +5.5 is meaningless, the fighter that finished wins the bet. If you take the JDS fight, for example, he won bc of a finish, but had the fight went to a decision, he would need to win by 5.5 points.

    If the judges went 48-47 X 3(amount of judges), Dos Santos at -5.5 would be a loss, and Lewis at +5.5 would cash.

    If the judges go 48-47, 49-46, and 49-46, Dos Santos would be +7 and cash.

    Hope that helps, the main event was a perfect ex. of a great time to use it, and Hoff nailed it. No way Lewis will ever win a points game, he was either KO or bust.
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  23. 03-10-19 04:44 PM #23
    Enfuego
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    It is a handicapped line that is mainly used for scorecards. If either fighter finishes the fight the -5.5 or +5.5 is meaningless, the fighter that finished wins the bet. If you take the JDS fight, for example, he won bc of a finish, but had the fight went to a decision, he would need to win by 5.5 points.

    If the judges went 48-47 X 3(amount of judges), Dos Santos at -5.5 would be a loss, and Lewis at +5.5 would cash.

    If the judges go 48-47, 49-46, and 49-46, Dos Santos would be +7 and cash.

    Hope that helps, the main event was a perfect ex. of a great time to use it, and Hoff nailed it. No way Lewis will ever win a points game, he was either KO or bust.
    Very odd. Never seen that before.

    Why didn't you just take JDS ITD at -100?
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  24. 03-10-19 05:33 PM #24
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    Very odd. Never seen that before.

    Why didn't you just take JDS ITD at -100?
    Because hes savage. He knows that theres a chance dos santos going the distance, anything can happen in mma, very unlikely scenarios happen frequently, then he would have lost everything. But he knew it would be a loopsided dec, then he would cash, if dos santos win inside, it will cash, and the price wasnt that bad, better than playing straight at -200. He found a middle ground.
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  25. 03-10-19 09:04 PM #25
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Because hes savage. He knows that theres a chance dos santos going the distance, anything can happen in mma, very unlikely scenarios happen frequently, then he would have lost everything. But he knew it would be a loopsided dec, then he would cash, if dos santos win inside, it will cash, and the price wasnt that bad, better than playing straight at -200. He found a middle ground.
    This pretty much sums it up. Dos Santos went 5 rounds with Rothwell and Ivanov. So there was a scenario where I could see him striking, moving, and avoiding Lewis' power for 5 rounds. And shit, Lewis/Ngannou went all 3 rounds. I knew there was little to no chance Lewis won by dec, and a better probability that he wouldn't even win a round. So it was better price than Dos Santos straight up. Only way I lose is if Lewis lands the knockout haymaker.
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  26. 03-11-19 05:09 AM #26
    Enfuego
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Because hes savage. He knows that theres a chance dos santos going the distance, anything can happen in mma, very unlikely scenarios happen frequently, then he would have lost everything. But he knew it would be a loopsided dec, then he would cash, if dos santos win inside, it will cash, and the price wasnt that bad, better than playing straight at -200. He found a middle ground.
    But, if it goes to decision and he wins, you're banking on him having at least one 10-8 round or the wager loses. 10-8s are hard to come by.
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  27. 03-11-19 06:04 AM #27
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    But, if it goes to decision and he wins, you're banking on him having at least one 10-8 round or the wager loses. 10-8s are hard to come by.
    No no no. The handicap is a total of 5,5 points on all judges scorecard. So only one judge needs to have 50-45 doesnt matter if judge 2 and 3 have it 48-47, its still going to cash. You didnt know that, thats fine.

    And lewis was never, EVER EVER EVER, to win one single round in this fight, except for the round he knock you the penetrate out in. So this was as good as a lock, as long as JDS didnt get put out cold. This kind of fights are ideal, if youre quick on the trigger and get the Lewis KO at a good price (as hedge), and at the same time can get a good number on your handicap, its a 99,9% strategy.
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  28. 03-11-19 10:35 AM #28
    HurlSweatPants
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    I thought I explained that well enough, guess not.
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  29. 03-12-19 05:17 AM #29
    Enfuego
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    I thought I explained that well enough, guess not.
    Sorry I asked.
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  30. 03-12-19 11:17 AM #30
    HurlSweatPants
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    Sorry I asked.
    Nothing to do with you, more my explanation. You didn't know, apologies.

    Looking forward to see what you have for this card HOFF, I've got dick as of right now.
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  31. 03-13-19 05:32 AM #31
    Enfuego
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    Nothing to do with you, more my explanation. You didn't know, apologies.

    Looking forward to see what you have for this card HOFF, I've got dick as of right now.
    Reyes+Wood
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  32. 03-13-19 11:31 AM #32
    HurlSweatPants
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    That seems to be the consensus Enfuego, I would definitely hedge No Time 1st round if pulling the trigger. I also like Quiones game, might be overmatched, but not at -325 for me.
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  33. 03-13-19 09:52 PM #33
    Enfuego
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    I see Till totally overwhelming Masvidal and disposing of him just like Cerrone in Liverpool.
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  34. 03-13-19 11:42 PM #34
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    I see Till totally overwhelming Masvidal and disposing of him just like Cerrone in Liverpool.
    Masvidal hasn't been finished in 15 UFC fights. Do you think Till is the first to do it?
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  35. 03-14-19 06:34 AM #35
    Enfuego
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Masvidal hasn't been finished in 15 UFC fights. Do you think Till is the first to do it?
    Why not? Till is big for the weight class.

    Remember, Dirty Means had never been KO'd in his entire career until last weekend.
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