[HurlSweatPants]

Don’t like that I appear to be one of the few on Woodley. I think he can land his counter right big time in this fight. I think Usman will come forward and Woodley is good at moving back and then pouncing forward with a huge right counter. Also I don’t think Usman has the wrestling advantage here. There’s a pretty sizeable difference in DI and DII wrestling. Haven’t laid my bet yet with the line still dropping but might tone it down a bit with BJ and Hugo on Usman.

I’m all over Askren. Sizable bet for me.

Wanted to bet on Munhoz coming into the card but after watching some fights I just think he is way too slow to keep up with Garbrandt. Munhoz May pull out a KO though as I think Garbrandt is a little chiny after all the boxing experience and his last two KO losses. Probably passing on this fight.

Pumped for this card, but won’t be able to watch. Flying home on Sat night. FML!

Woodley line is a lot more playable now, depends on how you bet. I still like Usman by DEC, but Woodley ITD is a smart hedge, especially now that the line has dropped.

With you an Askren, took the handicapped though, no way I am laying that much juice straight up.

As for the Munhoz line, its evened out significantly so if you are having reservations, I definitely think its too late to pull the trigger, the line has lost too much value IMO as its close to a pick em. Might even be a pick em by fight time. I disagree about how it goes down, think Cody has the higher probability to KO, and Munhoz has a MUCH higher probability to win by sub as opposed to a KO.

[HurlSweatPants]

Youre probably right about Woodley though. Its def a cause for concern that Usman probably doesnt have the defence in place atm, while woodley has perfected moving backwards and explode forward with his back against the cage. Hes super good at it. put my money down when i saw +160 so the bet partially come to fruition based on a good price. Askren handicap with a small amount on Lawler tko is a great bet.

penetrate yeah, with you on the Askren bet/Lawler hedge. If Lawler pulls out a decision I will shit my pants on site.

[bjpenn85]

penetrate yeah, with you on the Askren bet/Lawler hedge. If Lawler pulls out a decision I will shit my pants on site.

true, i think that lawler will either finish askren or askren will win clearly, not andything in between. but i might be wrong

[UncleChael]

No bets on Woodley yet.

[Chili_Powder]

Robbie will be at a low stance and looking for the shoots like in the Woodley fight and backing up with his chin up.. Just don't think Askren can throw the lightening fast bomb on the chin like Woodley did early on.

I can only guess Robbie will be REALLY looking to stand and keep distance.. Robbie has the UFC Octagon experience Ben does not..

My question to you have we ever seen Robbie Lawler completely grapple focked by a strong wrestler in the past? I'd say no unless my memory is not serving me right.

I am admittedly more of a casual MMA fan than most of you guys so I’m not sure if he ever has. I think an equally pertinent question is how often has Lawler faced a four time NCAA finalist, 2 time time NCAA champ and 2 time NCAA wrestler of the year?

Johhny Hendricks is the closest answer, UD loss and a split decision win both in 2014. How much does Lawler have left? Looking forward to it, think Askren takes it.

[JIBBBY]

I am admittedly more of a casual MMA fan than most of you guys so I’m not sure if he ever has. I think an equally pertinent question is how often has Lawler faced a four time NCAA finalist, 2 time time NCAA champ and 2 time NCAA wrestler of the year?

Johhny Hendricks is the closest answer, UD loss and a split decision win both in 2014. How much does Lawler have left? Looking forward to it, think Askren takes it.

True that ^^^ but Asken is such a one trick pony.. Standing he's really bad and like a fish out of water.. Can Robbie take advantage of the striking gap when the fight is standing even for a short time is the big question?

Point well taken though, wrestlers rule in MMA and you are probably correct.. Asken by decision it is then via the lay and pray..

Odds are pure trash for this prop

1211 Askren wins by 3 round decision

-151

UFC 235 - Welterweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 3/2		1201 Robbie Lawler		+235	o2½ -280
11:00PM		1202 Ben Askren		-275	u2½ +240

[PaperTrail07]

The "trick" he has is david copperfield making an elephant disappear good lol....If Ole Robbie moved more I would give him more of a chance but he holds his ground and will give askren too many opportunities.....Gl sat JIBBY

True that ^^^ but Asken is such a one trick pony.. Standing he's really bad and like a fish out of water.. Can Robbie take advantage of the striking gap when the fight is standing even for a short time is the big question?

Point well taken though, wrestlers rule in MMA and you are probably correct.. Asken by decision it is then via the lay and pray..

Odds are pure trash for this prop

1211 Askren wins by 3 round decision

-151

UFC 235 - Welterweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 3/2		1201 Robbie Lawler		+235	o2½ -280
11:00PM		1202 Ben Askren		-275	u2½ +240

[PaperTrail07]

It's a little crazy to me how everyone is liking Garbrandt.....am I the only one not sold? I feel Munhoz is more skilled -stronger and tougher chin...I don't even think Munhoz will respect him in there.... If he hits and runs he cant get a point decision....other than that I just don't see it....he KO's PM I will be shocked , impressed and also this thing called DOWN A LOT OF $ lol...

[PaperTrail07]

Worth a sprinkle

62202

Askren wins inside distance

+400

[HurlSweatPants]

It's a little crazy to me how everyone is liking Garbrandt.....am I the only one not sold? I feel Munhoz is more skilled -stronger and tougher chin...I don't even think Munhoz will respect him in there.... If he hits and runs he cant get a point decision....other than that I just don't see it....he KO's PM I will be shocked , impressed and also this thing called DOWN A LOT OF $ lol...

Cody has had more exposure, and before the TJ fights, he looked like the future of that division. What he did to Dom is still one of the craziest things I've seen.

With that said, I agree that Munhoz was valuable at 140 considering its a pretty even fight. I personally think Munhoz will get hit and not like it, and that may work to his advantage. Munhoz has a sick guillotine, and if Cody loses, I think its by sub rather than a decision or KO.

[firekillex]

Worth a sprinkle

62202

Askren wins inside distance

+400

might as well take Askren +650 submission... doubt he gets a TKO if he finishes Robbie

[JAKEPEAVY21]

the Marty from Nebraska stuff is classic lol

Askren is a smart guy and I enjoy his interviews

[PaperTrail07]

100% true...However I feel like the timing of his fights and the matchmaking were PERFECT to sell him as a fighter and make him appear a little better than he really is.....he was fighting well KO'ing guys that were "good" but def on a downward slide....Brimage, briones...Mizugaki...all dropped their next (3) fights..even losing in other organizations..I'n not saying he in not a quality fighter by any means and he does also have some amazing wins like you said....but Munhoz and HIS STYLE present maybe his toughest test so far besides TJ...

Cody has had more exposure, and before the TJ fights, he looked like the future of that division. What he did to Dom is still one of the craziest things I've seen.

With that said, I agree that Munhoz was valuable at 140 considering its a pretty even fight. I personally think Munhoz will get hit and not like it, and that may work to his advantage. Munhoz has a sick guillotine, and if Cody loses, I think its by sub rather than a decision or KO.

[JIBBBY]

Cody coming off back to back loses to TJ, KO'd both times.. Not sure what that does to a fighters confidence? Munoz has a chance..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cody-Garbrandt-50381

Like Hurl said in his post above Munoz has won 9 of his 15 pro fights by sub.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pedro-Munhoz-52407

1427 Munhoz wins by submission

+400

[slikec]

Ok obviously i am missing something cause books dont give free money.

So at bookmarker at the moment Munhoz ML +113 so if i bet 30 i win 33,9.
Also at bookmarket Munhoz is +400 Sub +450 KO and +500 decision. If i bet on each of those 10(together also 30) i win 40,45 or 50.

Ok if is draw ML get wager back (but ok i bet decision 9 and 1 on draw and am covered also that way.).

What am i missing here? Is to big difference to not be missing sth. Same works also on Garbrandt so i am missing sth. probably very obvious.

[JIBBBY]

I think the safest play to go with for value if you are gonna bet Munoz is the ITD prop.. Cody probably wins a decision if it goes the distance.. I can't see Munoz out pointing Cody..

Now Cody has been cracked and dropped in his last 2 fights, he comes in fighting with his chin up.. It's not out of the question for Munoz to land something and drop him again.. Munoz wins more then 50% of fights by sub so that's not out of the question either.. Cody does have pretty good defensive wrestling though.. Fight probably stays standing IMO..

1405 Munhoz wins inside distance

+210

Could go this way on the flip..

1409 Garbrandt wins inside distance

+175

[slikec]

Well if i bet KO and SUB separately i get a bit better odds than +210. But my point was betting KO,SUB + decision separately gives far better odds than betting on fighter ML.

So what does ML(beside draw) also cover than KO, SUB+ decision doesnt?

[Shagdogy]

It's a little crazy to me how everyone is liking Garbrandt.....am I the only one not sold? I feel Munhoz is more skilled -stronger and tougher chin...I don't even think Munhoz will respect him in there.... If he hits and runs he cant get a point decision....other than that I just don't see it....he KO's PM I will be shocked , impressed and also this thing called DOWN A LOT OF $ lol...

I am betting Cody ML now that it's -140. I think it's his fight to lose. Fight like he fought TJ and he'll lose it. Fight like he fought Dom and he can put on another clinic. He can fight longer than Munhoz and much faster, and these dudes are small enough that there will always be room for Cody to circle and avoid Munhoz's pressure if that's his priority. He simply has to stick to his gameplan and his strengths like he did vs. Dom, but only for 3 rounds this time. And as much as Munhoz is a gritty dog, and he looks like he can hit hard, he doesn't really rock or drop people often with his hands. Munhoz is going to have to hurt Cody to win this fight, and that's going to require Cody to come in not having learned a single lesson from the TJ fights. I won't be shocked if Munhoz drops Cody - his chin is a major concern - but the fight is Cody's for the taking if you look at strength vs. strength IMO.

[JIBBBY]

Well if i bet KO and SUB separately i get a bit better odds than +210. But my point was betting KO,SUB + decision separately gives far better odds than betting on fighter ML.

So what does ML(beside draw) also cover than KO, SUB+ decision doesnt?

Well always find the best value on the book when you use the props, I fully support that!!! That's why I hedge half the time with fight props and bet to each fighters main strengths..

I just wanna win each fight myself when betting it and move on to the next. When you hit those juicy props that can be the difference between winning and losing the card..
Find that best value with the props and GL bud!!!

[HurlSweatPants]

This Torres line is a little bipolar. Went from even, to Tecia being +135 earlier today, now back to +115.

[Shagdogy]

Ended up playing much more on this card than I intended. MoneyLine plays include:
Usman +140
Cody -140
Zhang -140
Sanchez +235

Also played Jones KO/TKO -111, and Cody decision +300 each small.

Finally a few parlays that close with Askren. Will hedge Lawler KO/TKO if it’s suitable.

[JIBBBY]

I think Usman is money.. Watch.. Woodley is for a surprise.. Usman has arrived and is proven now and no joke now!! He may win ITD!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Usman is money.. Watch.. Woodley is for a surprise.. Usman has arrived and is proven now and no joke now!! He may win ITD!!

I like Usman here too but Woodley is a tough style matchup. Won't be easy.

[JIBBBY]

I like Usman here but Woodley is a tough style matchup. Won't be easy.

Usman is really in his prime.. Woodley vet now and champion also.

I just like Usaman's momentum coming in.. I think he has the better chin too.. Woodley has been KO'd before Usman has not..

Gotta try Usman in this one and maybe inside the distance since it's a 5 rounder.. Usman on a Crazy win streak and alot of confidence coming in to his first title shot..

I may load up..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kamaru-Usman-120691

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nate Marquardt came to a friend's UFC watch party that I was at a few months ago. I remember showing him this clip of him melting Woodley with that crazy combo. He just smiled sheepishly.

[JIBBBY]

^^Nate wore down T-Wood in that fight I remember watching it live. Pressured him and Twood gassed and the clinch broke him and he got slept.. Long time ago though..

Usman does bring pressure also.. Usman has a solid chin as well.. I've never seen him rocked by a punch..

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^Nate wore down T-Wood in that fight I remember watching it live. Pressured him and Twood gassed and the clinch broke him and he got slept.. Long time ago though..

Usman does bring pressure also.. Usman has a solid chin as well.. I've never seen him rocked by a punch..

I remember you loaded up on Woodley to beat Lawler. Seems like you have a good read on him.

[slikec]

So at bookmarker at the moment Munhoz ML +113 so if i bet 30 i win 33,9.
Also at bookmarket Munhoz is +400 Sub +450 KO and +500 decision. If i bet on each of those 10(together also 30) i win 40,45 or 50.

Ok if is draw ML get wager back (but ok i bet decision 9 and 1 on draw and am covered also that way.).

Odds changed but wanna know if bets on
KO+SUB+DEC+DRAW = ML

Or maybe we cant bet all outcomes? Or what is the trick here? I checked few fights most have better odds betting all 4 separately than ML they guy. So there must be outcome(s) that ML covers and they dont?

[JIBBBY]

I remember you loaded up on Woodley to beat Lawler. Seems like you have a good read on him.

We'll see I hope so Hugo.. You da man these days not me.. Very impressed with your prop play, you do your homework and play the odds well. I mean that!!

Did win a $500 dog bet on Woodley back in the day.. That event win was my best ever to date.. Only because I loaded up on 3 dogs each at $500 a pop and hit them all.. Good memory Hugo.

I don't have the nads to drop that kind of coin anymore..



I was really dialed in at that time and knew it.. Just went for it..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Odds changed but wanna know if bets on
KO+SUB+DEC+DRAW = ML

Or maybe we cant bet all outcomes? Or what is the trick here? I checked few fights most have better odds betting all 4 separately than ML they guy. So there must be outcome(s) that ML covers and they dont?

I think you're forgetting to subtract the losses on the props that don't win. Pretty common mistake.

Bet $30 on ML (+113), profit $33.9
Bet $10 on Sub (+400), initial profit $40, -$10 for KO/TKO, -$10 for Decision, final profit $20
Bet $10 on KO/TKO (+450), initial profit $45, -$10 for Submission, -$10 for Decision, final profit $25
Bet $10 on Decision (+500), initial profit $50, -$10 for KO/TKO, -$10 for Submission, final profit $30

Does that make sense?

[slikec]

Ofc. there is the trick. When winning ML you get your bet back while props you lose 2. I knew it was so obvious but just couldnt see it myself. Thank you very much

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ofc. there is the trick. When winning ML you get your bet back while props you lose 2. I knew it was so obvious but just couldnt see it myself. Thank you very much

No problem! Best of luck with your bets tomorrow.

[turbozed]

Ended up playing much more on this card than I intended. MoneyLine plays include:
Usman +140
Cody -140
Zhang -140
Sanchez +235

Also played Jones KO/TKO -111, and Cody decision +300 each small.

Finally a few parlays that close with Askren. Will hedge Lawler KO/TKO if it’s suitable.

I'm on board with all four of those ML bets. Let's get it Shagy!

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA PRELIMS -




145 lbs.: Jeremy Stephens vs. Zabit Magomedsharipov

Jeremy Stephens (28-15) — who’d had just one knockout in his previous nine fights — rediscovered his destructive capabilities with brutal finishes of Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett in consecutive FOX main events. This set up a battle with Jose Aldo, who handed “Lil’ Heathen” just the second knockout loss of his career with a vicious body shot.
He has knocked out 19 opponents overall.
An eight-fight win streak brought Zabit Magomedsharipov (16-1) to the Octagon, where he quickly became the “Next Big Thing” with a series of impressive performances. After opening his UFC career with dominant submissions of Mike Santiago and Sheymon Moraes, “Zabeast” put on one of 2018’s best fights against Kyle Bochniak, then caught Brandon Davis in a “Submission of the Year”-worthy Suloev stretch to at UFC 228.
He stands four inches taller than Stevens at 6’1.”
Stephens can win this fight if he fights smart. Magmedsharipov backs straight up when pressured, and Stephens has some hellacious leg kicks with which to tear up the trailing leg. If Stephens can slow down the towering Dagestani, the latter’s willingness to throw down will doom him to eating one of those gigaton punches “Lil’ Heathen” can still deliver.
But, when was the last time Stephens fought smart? The man all but crippled Gilbert Melendez and yet he still sometimes forgets he’s allowed to hit people with something other than wound-up haymakers. His lack of set ups leaves him open to both Magomedsharipov’s long-range kicks and lethal wrestling.
Stephens hasn’t been submitted in a decade despite the efforts of guys like Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Charles Oliveira and Renato Moicano, so he should have a full 15 minutes to chase the finish. Too bad he’s going to spend most of it on his back, fighting off chokes.
Prediction: Magomedsharipov via unanimous decision
Related
Video: Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 235’

Finalized! UFC 235 Fight Card, TV Line Up

205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov vs. Johnny Walker

Misha Cirkunov (14-4) entered UFC as one of the Light Heavyweight division’s top prospects, a status he lived up to with four consecutive impressive finishes. Upset losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Glover Teixeira slowed his roll, but he got back on track by stopping Patrick Cummins in under three minutes.
Eight of his 12 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Walker had to go to the judges for the first time, but came out victorious on the Contender Series with a decision over UFC veteran Henrique “Frankenstein.” That may have bred a bit of impatience, as he’s disposed of his two Octagon opponents in a combined 2:12 while earning a pair of “Performance of the Night” bonuses.
He steps in for the injured Ovince Saint Preux on short notice to complete a one-month turnaround.
Cirkunov is an exponentially better grappler than Walker. Save for the Oezdemir debacle, he’s shown a solid chin, weathering everything Ion Cutelaba could dish out for more than two rounds. Conventional thinking suggests that he can exploit Walker’s shaky ground game and possibly even put a dent in that chin he leaves hanging out there.
As we’ve seen, though, conventional thinking doesn’t seem to apply to Walker, who can seemingly uncork fight-ending strikes at a whim. There’s every possibility he drills Cirkunov with some kind of flying nonsense that would give his kickboxing coach an aneurysm. Still, Cirkunov has the tools to beat him and is a mighty dangerous foe to fight with little preparation. I say he chokes the big man out halfway through.
Prediction: Cirkunov via second-round submission
Related
Jon Jones: ‘No Man Can Hit Me As Hard As Life Hit Me’

135 lbs.: Alejandro Perez vs. Cody Stamann

Alejandro Perez (21-6-1) suffered a surprise submission loss to Patrick Williams in his sophomore UFC appearance, but has gone unbeaten in seven fights since. His 2018 campaign saw him knockout an exhausted Matthew Lopez in April 2018 and take a narrow decision over Eddie Wineland three months later.
“Diablito” has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted another five.
Cody Stamann (17-2) took a workman-like decision over Terrion Ware in his Octagon debut, then punched his ticket to contention by upsetting Tom Duquesnoy and winning a grueling battle with Bryan Caraway. He went on to fight Aljamain Sterling in Sept. 2018, and though he started strong, he fell victim to a Suloev stretch in the second round.
“The Spartan” replaces injured prospect Song Yadong on short notice.
Out of curiosity, I decided to check some of Perez’s fights on MMADecisions.com. Just two of 15 pundits scored the Wineland fight for him, three of 15 had him beating Andre Soukhamthath, and 13 of 16 had him losing his draw with Albert Morales. There’s no question that he’s a solid fighter, but he’s benefited from a lot of questionable judging.
Stamann’s the stronger wrestler here and, unlike Lopez, won’t gas himself out after five good minutes. Unless Perez can crack him in the first five minutes, Stamann’s durability and takedown prowess carry him to a grind-heavy unanimous decision.
Prediction: Stamann via unanimous decision
Related
Jones Drug Tested ‘Twice A Week’ Leading Into UFC 235

170 lbs.: Diego Sanchez vs. Mickey Gall

Decisions over Jim Miller and Marcin Held breathed a bit of life back into Diego Sanchez’s (28-11) mixed martial arts (MMA) career, but horrific knockout losses to Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown had fans worried for “The Nightmare’s” health. With his back against the wall, he survived a vicious upkick to defeat Craig White by decision in Sept. 2018.
He stands four inches shorter than Gall at 5’10.”
Mickey Gall (5-1) easily tapped Mike Jackson to win the C.M. Punk Sweepstakes, then did the same thing to Punk and Sage Northcutt to establish himself as a legitimate Welterweight. A long stretch of back control wasn’t enough to get him past Randy Brown his next time out, though he tapped George Sullivan in Aug. 2018.
All five of his professional wins have come by rear-naked choke within two rounds.
I look back on the last time I picked Sanchez to win with the same cringing self-loathing as the time I was three years old and told a somewhat hirsute family friend I’d never seen a woman with a moustache before. As one might imagine, the fact that I’m picking him here is not done lightly.
Here’s the thing: Gall is extraordinarily good at the one thing he does, which is scoring takedowns and then moving instantly to the back. Sanchez, however, remains extremely good at not getting submitted. He clearly beat a pair of quality grapplers in Miller and Held. In addition, he may not be able to take a punch anymore, but the man can still grind.
Shopworn as Sanchez is, if there’s any Welterweight on the roster he can still beat, it’s Gall. He rides out three rounds in Gall’s guard to get the win.
Prediction: Sanchez via unanimous decision


185 lbs.: Charles Byrd vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Charles Byrd (10-5) — despite the nickname “Kid Dynamite” — leaned on his grappling to punch his ticket to UFC, picking up a pair of submissions on “Contender Series.” He did the same to John Phillips in his debut and looked on track to defeat Darren Stewart his next time out, only to suffer a comeback knockout loss.
He’ll give up one inch of height and three inches of reach to Edmen Shahbazyan (8-0).
Shahbazyan scored his seventh consecutive first-round knockout on the Contender Series by dispatching Antonio Jones in just 40 seconds. This led to a November debut against Darren Stewart, whom Shahbazyan outlasted for a decision despite fading late.
Four of those knockouts came in less than one minute.
At the time of writing, Shahbazyan is the favorite, perhaps because of their relative performances against Stewart and the fact that Shahbazyan is the younger of the two by 14 years. I’m not convinced, though. Despite his previous knockout spree, Shabazyan seemed petrified of exchanging with Stewart, and for all the success he had with his takedowns, he’s less proven as a grappler than Byrd is.
Then there’s the cardio.
Byrd can hold his own in the standup, and if anyone’s going to be scoring takedowns, it’s “Kid Dynamite.” Byrd wears Shahbazyan down in the clinch, racks up the top control time, and ultimately forces the tap.
Prediction: Byrd via third-round submission
Related
Video: Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 235’

Finalized! UFC 235 Fight Card, TV Line Up

135 lbs.: Gina Mazany vs. Macy Chiasson

Gina Mazany (5-2) lost to eventual winner Julianna Pena in the elimination bouts of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18, but got an Octagon shot by stepping up on short notice against Sara McMann, who tapped her with an arm triangle in 74 seconds. She got on the board nine months later with a decision over ** Yanan, but lost her only 2018 bout to Lina Lansberg in May.
She’ll give up three inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach to Macy Chiasson (3-0).
Chiasson scored the only two knockouts in the women’s bracket on TUF 28, defeating UFC veteran Larissa Pacheco and knockout specialist Leah Letson. She took on teammate Pannie Kianzad at the Finale, where she used strong clinchwork and boxing to wear Kianzad down and choke her out in the second round.
She has scored submissions in two of her three professional fights.
Mazany is a ground specialist without the wrestling to enforce her game on strong opposition, and she’s going up against a woman who can hold her own at Featherweight. Chiasson also looks to be the better striker and can hold her own in the clinch, where a solid chunk of this fight should take place.
There really are no clear avenues of victory for Mazany outside of a freak submission. Chiasson just seems to have her out-gunned everywhere. Expect her to chew up Mazany at range, in the clinch, and perhaps from top position if she feels so inclined.
Prediction: Chiasson via unanimous decision
Related
Jon Jones: ‘No Man Can Hit Me As Hard As Life Hit Me’

135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Frankie Saenz

Even though Marlon Vera’s (14-5-1) run on TUF: “Latin America” was cut short by illness and he lost his debut to Marco Beltran, four wins in his next five fights made him a legitimate contender at 135 pounds. His efforts hit a snag thanks to power punchers John Lineker and Douglas Andrade, though he has since finished Wuliji Buren and TUF castmate Guido Cannetti.
“Chito” owns seven professional submission wins, including four by triangle or armbar.
Frankie Saenz (12-5) scored one of the biggest numerical upsets in recent UFC history with his 2015 decision over Iuri Alcantara and followed it up with a decision over Sirwan Kakai, but subsequently lost three straight. A controversial decision over Merab Dvalishvili got him back on track, and he followed that up by beating another of Vera’s castmates in Henry Briones.
He replaces the injured Thomas Almeida on one month’s notice.
As good as Vera is, his wrestling remains an Achilles’ heel he doesn’t seem poised to fix anytime soon. He’s been taken down at least once in all but two of his UFC fights, and he only had to deal with one cumulative attempt in that span. Saenz may not have much to offer outside of grit and decent takedowns, but that’s really all he needs here.
Vera’s options are keeping the fight at range, trying to exploit Saenz’s remarkably porous defensive wrestling, or attempting to catch a submission off of his back. The first one’s unlikely, considering that shorter men in Lineker and Andrade regularly worked their ways into the pocket, and Vera’s generally not a super capable offensive wrestler. That leaves his guard, which I believe Saenz can navigate for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Saenz via unanimous decision
Related
Jones Drug Tested ‘Twice A Week’ Leading Into UFC 235

115 lbs.: Polyana Viana vs. Hannah Cifers

Polyana Viana (10-2) brought her grappling chops to bear in her UFC debut, tapping TUF competitor Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson in the first round at UFC Fight Night 125. She entered her next bout with J.J. Aldrich as a favorite, but difficulty landing takedowns led her to lose a unanimous decision.
“Dama de Ferro” has gotten the finish in all 10 of her professional victories, all but one in the first round.
Hannah Cifers (8-3) won five straight on her way to the Octagon, ultimately stepping up on short notice to fight top prospect Maycee Barber at UFC Fight Night 139. “Shockwave” had few answers for the heavily favored Barber and succumbed to ground-and-pound midway through the second round. She’ll give up five inches of height and reach to Viana.
Cifers had all sorts of trouble staying out of the clinch against Barber, and considering Viana’s good enough on the ground to successfully pull guard, letting the Brazilian get any sort of grip on her is asking for trouble. Cifers is going to have major trouble staying in the pocket long enough to do any real damage.
“Shockwave” does pack a decent punch and Viana’s not much of a striker, admittedly, but the reach disparity means Cifers will have to open herself up to either the clinch or reactive takedowns to close the distance. Viana will get it to the mat one way or another, and from there it’s a matter of time.
Prediction: Viana via first-round submission

[slikec]

No problem! Best of luck with your bets tomorrow.

Thx and good luck with your bets.

I made for me big fat bet on Sanchez when i saw those odds thank to you. Now i need to decide how much i hedge. Awesome solution would be to offer someone +215 odds on Sanchez but friends dont bet MMA and trust is scarce on internet.