[UncleChael]

If you ever watched an Anderson Silva fight, it's going to be no different. He's gonna have his hands down and he's gonna lean back. Can't wait!!

[Thor4140]

Against Glover when he whooped his ass?

no against Rumble and you knew that Hugo. i just commented. Im a Whittaker fan.

[Demonata]

Hmmm do i do my own bets or just copy hugos and make guaranteed profit? 😆

[Shagdogy]

Shane Young and DLR with high confidence. Young very high confidence. Lando is a serious choke artist, but he has so much more skill than Rosa and the UFC just gave him a new contract... looks like they're feeding him an easy win. Even Lando can probably win this despite himself.

[bjpenn85]

Shane Young and DLR with high confidence. Young very high confidence. Lando is a serious choke artist, but he has so much more skill than Rosa and the UFC just gave him a new contract... looks like they're feeding him an easy win. Even Lando can probably win this despite himself.

Its free money, one should bet Lando, ill guess a lot of people are hesitant. Is it likely that he will give up one round? Its maybe better go take the handicap -3,5 for better odds. And maybe hedge with Rosa TKO or inside +1050. Its probably less risk involved with Lando, then all the other fights that we bet day inn and day out, so its almost hypocritical to not bet Lando here. But i have not bet Lando haha....but i should.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Its free money, one should bet Lando, ill guess a lot of people are hesitant. Is it likely that he will give up one round? Its maybe better go take the handicap -3,5 for better odds. And maybe hedge with Rosa TKO or inside +1050. Its probably less risk involved with Lando, then all the other fights that we bet day inn and day out, so its almost hypocritical to not bet Lando here. But i have not bet Lando haha....but i should.

So Lando's had six UFC fights and been the favorite five times. Of those six, he's won only one. Lando is generally not someone to trust, especially as a big favorite. However, the opponent he's been given here is downright awful. Someone else called him "Anderson Silva's Artem Lobov" since he's Anderson's friend and Anderson has likely kicked his ass dozens of times over the years. Lando probably rolls past this guy but I'd advise you to be careful betting him in fights down the road.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Lando R1 (+170) better than ML (-390) at current odds. Did get some Lando in parlays at the (-240) range.

[Shagdogy]

I like Lando R1 (+170) better than ML (-390) at current odds. Did get some Lando in parlays at the (-240) range.

Lando has almost won every one of his fights in round 1. He’s the king of almost finishes. I like that prop. Would play it at +225 or so. I think giving him a 30% chance of a rd 1 finish is fair. Maybe I’m being conservative cause it’s Lando cause the skill gap is quite wide here.

[bjpenn85]

So Lando's had six UFC fights and been the favorite five times. Of those six, he's won only one. Lando is generally not someone to trust, especially as a big favorite. However, the opponent he's been given here is downright awful. Someone else called him "Anderson Silva's Artem Lobov" since he's Anderson's friend and Anderson has likely kicked his ass dozens of times over the years. Lando probably rolls past this guy but I'd advise you to be careful betting him in fights down the road.

I have actually never bet Lando as far as i can remember. I just feel its easy to feel let down if a fighter continually make you loose money, that should not sway you into not betting Lando in this specific spot. Throw the emotions away and bet Lando inside distance or maybe as you said at +170 in round 1. Lando sucks, but sometimes you just got to bet on skill difference unless the fighter is so unreliable that you cant even trust that he can defend any skill level. I think that Lando is a high level fighter with bad fight IQ/mentality, but not to the point he cant beat people like Rosa. But if Lando wins lets say a 29-28 here, i feel like the UFC should cut him even though they just re-signed him.

[Thrilla]

Australian Robert Whittaker puts his belt on the line against fellow TUF winner Kelvin Gastelum. Plus, Anderson Silva faces Israel Adesanya in a bout that will see these two masters of style square off. Watch these athletes train and prepare for their fights at UFC 234.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have actually never bet Lando as far as i can remember. I just feel its easy to feel let down if a fighter continually make you loose money, that should not sway you into not betting Lando in this specific spot. Throw the emotions away and bet Lando inside distance or maybe as you said at +170 in round 1. Lando sucks, but sometimes you just got to bet on skill difference unless the fighter is so unreliable that you cant even trust that he can defend any skill level. I think that Lando is a high level fighter with bad fight IQ/mentality, but not to the point he cant beat people like Rosa. But if Lando wins lets say a 29-28 here, i feel like the UFC should cut him even though they just re-signed him.

Yeah as I said, I’ll bet him this weekend but look to fade him against someone decent.

[PaperTrail07]

I always bet him LOL....hes usually a big fav and edges the W......he makes you sweat...but the ticket usually cashes

Yeah as I said, I’ll bet him this weekend but look to fade him against someone decent.

[PaperTrail07]

Feel Pretty Good about these (3)

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : R. Whittaker 2/9/2019 9:05PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : De. Smith 2/9/2019 6:35PM - (PST) Money Line -250 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : S. Young 2/9/2019 6:05PM - (PST) Money Line -330 for Game

[bjpenn85]

Ok. So Vannata has won against better fighters or at least people with better records than Marcus Rosa within round 1, if were including makdessi, 50% of his win.

You get Lando sub @ +349 or tko +145 or inside distance at -180. Having bad performances against top 10-15 fighters has this affect on the odds, but i dont think this inside props are resonating with likelyhood ratios. +349 on sub when lando easyily can just take down this hightower of an amateur with no ground game, and perhaps will do so, as Rosa has very long limbs.

I dont think its likely that Rosa will survive 15 minutes. And the odds are quite temptying, im taking a stabb at both inside distance in parlay and a smaller bet on sub.

[Thrilla]

Whoever gave Adesanya this shirt is a racist son of a bitch!

[bjpenn85]

No no, you se the text from an angle, its written "rapeman", so hes raping women, how is that racist?

[HurlSweatPants]

Feel Pretty Good about these (3)

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : R. Whittaker 2/9/2019 9:05PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : De. Smith 2/9/2019 6:35PM - (PST) Money Line -250 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : S. Young 2/9/2019 6:05PM - (PST) Money Line -330 for Game

BOL, I don't have the same confidence as you in RW. I think KG takes him out in round 2 or 3.

[PaperTrail07]

I just don't think KG's head down move forward I'm the tougher guy routine works here....I think RW is more skilled....end of story....I'm guessing that RW folds KG the way KG folds other people.....toughness and grit and RW lands one and follws up for a TKO... Biting your mouthpiece and going in on RW and end badly CANT WAIT....amzing fight

BOL, I don't have the same confidence as you in RW. I think KG takes him out in round 2 or 3.

[HurlSweatPants]

I just don't think KG's head down move forward I'm the tougher guy routine works here....I think RW is more skilled....end of story....I'm guessing that RW folds KG the way KG folds other people.....toughness and grit and RW lands one and follws up for a TKO... Biting your mouthpiece and going in on RW and end badly CANT WAIT....amzing fight

That is what most seem to think. I know he withstood Yoel, so its easy to say KG wont get to him, but I think his boxing is more technical, and all he needs is a straight left to put the lights out. KG also has a granite chin thus far in his career. I think for the price at what is was +225, KG has more value.

Can't argue with the fight I've been really diggin this card as a whole. Hope Crute/Alvey come out swinging, thats the one to me that could turn into the ultimate snoozefest.

[PaperTrail07]

His chin has been granite, Ill agree there.....BUT people seem to forget how good RW is....Karate wise and with his footwork....it also has the decision factor of it being in AUS....I think it is a solid line actually....I don't love the line per say but love RW to win...

Crute Alvey will be great.....interested to see if Alvey sucks him in LOL.....turns it boring Crute dives in a KO lol.....overall very very interesting fight... lets hope alvey flips the switch and goes full AGRESSIVE loll.......guy is a wildcard...

That is what most seem to think. I know he withstood Yoel, so its easy to say KG wont get to him, but I think his boxing is more technical, and all he needs is a straight left to put the lights out. KG also has a granite chin thus far in his career. I think for the price at what is was +225, KG has more value.

Can't argue with the fight I've been really diggin this card as a whole. Hope Crute/Alvey come out swinging, thats the one to me that could turn into the ultimate snoozefest.

[PaperTrail07]

After going over my MMA bets -month, years ect.....I noticed my "value" bets were costing me some real dollars.....not saying this is one of those....but the "he shouldn't be 8:1" type shit slowly ate away at me.....I'm trying to be more results based but not getting crushed on lines I was calling it correct (as most do w a big fav)....but was losing # on other side props.....+$ plays ect


GL THIS WEEKEND HURL LETS CRACK THESE BOOKS

That is what most seem to think. I know he withstood Yoel, so its easy to say KG wont get to him, but I think his boxing is more technical, and all he needs is a straight left to put the lights out. KG also has a granite chin thus far in his career. I think for the price at what is was +225, KG has more value.

Can't argue with the fight I've been really diggin this card as a whole. Hope Crute/Alvey come out swinging, thats the one to me that could turn into the ultimate snoozefest.

[Shagdogy]

After going over my MMA bets -month, years ect.....I noticed my "value" bets were costing me some real dollars.....not saying this is one of those....but the "he shouldn't be 8:1" type shit slowly ate away at me.....I'm trying to be more results based but not getting crushed on lines I was calling it correct (as most do w a big fav)....but was losing # on other side props.....+$ plays ect


GL THIS WEEKEND HURL LETS CRACK THESE BOOKS

Always good to review results to see what you do best. For me, by far my most profitable bet type is playing underdogs who I have liked to win the fight outright. Even if I have them winning just over 50% if they are paying dog money and I think they win, over time that’s where I clean up. I see a big drop off in long term results when looking at “value plays” for dogs that I don’t have lined to win but think the line is too wide. Gastelum would be an example on this card. I think he’s the value side but I don’t think he wins more than 50%. It’s tempting to bet the value but I try to only do it when I have the fighter lined to win outright. That works best for me. Now if I could only disciplined enough to stick to that.

[HurlSweatPants]

Always good to review results to see what you do best. For me, by far my most profitable bet type is playing underdogs who I have liked to win the fight outright. Even if I have them winning just over 50% if they are paying dog money and I think they win, over time that’s where I clean up. I see a big drop off in long term results when looking at “value plays” for dogs that I don’t have lined to win but think the line is too wide. Gastelum would be an example on this card. I think he’s the value side but I don’t think he wins more than 50%. It’s tempting to bet the value but I try to only do it when I have the fighter lined to win outright. That works best for me. Now if I could only disciplined enough to stick to that.

I second that, I have also recently noticed a nice trend of fighters in the +170/+205 having high profitability. Just off the top of my head, I believe Alves and Olivera were close if not in between those numbers for the last fight, and Frota really should have pulled the +185 upset IMO. Cowboy against Hernandez and Cejudo/TJ are other lines that come to mind.

I found I have higher prof in favorites when dealing with the handicapped round lines, it rewards the finish/complete domination. The only factor that I don't like is that judges can really penetrate shit up, and I have been on the wrong end of shitty judging more than not.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups coming in Prelims - MMAMANIA





155 lbs.: Devonte Smith vs. Dong Hyun Ma

Devonte Smith (9-1) dispatched Joseph Lowry with elbows on “Contender Series” for his fourth consecutive win and a shot in the Octagon itself. Three months later, he took on fellow alumnus Julian Erosa and knocked him flat in just 46 seconds.
“King Kage” has knocked out eight opponents and submitted one other.
Dong Hyun Ma (16-8-3) — formerly known as “no, the other Dong Hyun Kim” — suffered a highlight-reel knockout loss to Dominique Steele in his Octagon debut, then unsuccessfully slugged it out with Polo Reyes in one of 2016’s fights of the year. He has since won three straight, most recently edging Damien Brown in hostile territory.
This will be his first fight in almost exactly a year.
I’m fond of Ma, as I’d imagine anyone would be after seeing the battle with Reyes, but I’m also realistic about his chances. He’s a decent grappler with a knack for brawling, and barely beating Brown isn’t enough to convince me that he can hold his own against the upper half of the division.
Even if you do give Ma more credit for his current streak than I do, Smith seems like a terrible match up for him. Smith hits way too hard for Ma to slug it out with him and I’m not sure the Korean’s takedowns are enough to stifle those bombs. Smith lands something massive midway through a fun battle
Prediction: Smith via second-round knockout
Related
Finalized! UFC 234 Fight Card, TV Line Up



145 lbs.: Austin Arnett vs. Shane Young

Austin Arnett (15-5) came up short against Brandon Davis on “Contender Series,” snapping a 13-fight win streak, but impressed enough in defeat to get the Octagon call five months later. After opening his Octagon career with consecutive losses to Cory Sandhagen and Hakeen Dawodu, Arnett finally re-entered the win column in Nov. 2018 with a decision over Humberto Bandenay.
He stands four inches taller than Young at 6’0,” but will give up a half-inch of reach.
Shane Young (12-4) stepped up on extremely short notice to fight Alexander Volkanovski in his UFC debut, surviving to the bell but losing the decision. “Sugar” returned the following June against Rolando Dy, polishing off his fellow striker with an elbow and punches in the second round.
Six of his 10 stoppages have come via (technical) knockout.
Neither of these two will ever sniff the Featherweight elite, but they’re both plenty fun to watch and come to bang. We should get 15 minutes of quality striking action, both men being extremely durable and capable of pushing a solid pace.
I honestly can’t come up with a good breakdown for their respective striking games and why you should favor one or the other — it’s just good matchmaking of mid-tier 145 pounders. Young seems a mite bit sharper, though, and has home field advantage on his side. He edges out Arnett over three competitive rounds.
Prediction: Young via unanimous decision
Related
Rewind! Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 234’



125 lbs.: Kai Kara-France vs. Raulian Paiva

Kai Kara-France (18-7) scored one of the nastier finishes on TUF 24, knocking out Terrence Mitchell in 30 seconds, but wasn’t called back for the Finale after losing to Alexandre Pantoja. He proceeded to win five of his next six bouts, then entered UFC with a “Fight of the Night” war against Elias Garcia in Dec. 2018.
Nine of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Raulian Paiva (18-1) — ranked among Brazil’s top Flyweights — put together an 11-fight win streak on his way to “Contender Series.” There, he took home a hard-fought split decision over Chute Boxe product Allan Nascimento, and even getting hit by a car afterward wasn’t enough to stop him from making his debut this Saturday.
He will have three inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach on “Don’t Blink.”
Watching Paiva in action on the Contender Series, I saw an aggressive, willing striker with top-notch scrambling and takedown defense. Unfortunately, he showed some real defensive issues, and his two professional knockouts suggest that he doesn’t have the firepower to make up for them in exchanges.
Kara-France, on the other hand, most certainly does.
Paiva’s rushes open him up to counter-fire and Kara-France, who welcomes wild exchanges, just hits too damn hard for that to work. Kara-France levels him after most of a crazy first round.
Prediction: Kara-France via first-round knockout
Related
Free Fight! Watch Whittaker And Romero War A Second Time



135 lbs.: Teruto Ishihara vs. Kyung Ho Kang

The charisma and show-stopping power of Teruto Ishihara (10-6-2) made him a fan-favorite as he went unbeaten in his first three UFC bouts. “Yashabo” is just 1-4 since, however, most recently suffering the first knockout loss of his career at the hands of Petr Yan.
All but one of his eight knockout victories have come in the first round.
Kyung Ho Kang (14-8)took home “Fight of the Night” for his 2014 split decision over Michinori Tanaka, then left the sport for his mandatory military service. “Mr. Perfect” returned in Jan. 2018 with a triangle finish of Guido Cannetti, then lost a narrow decision to top prospect Ricardo Ramos seven months later.
He is two inches taller than Ishihara and will have a four-inch reach advantage.
I was really hoping that Ishihara could become something more than just a mouth and a big left hand, but even not even the Team Alpha Male coaching staff was enough to get him to knuckle down. I’ve given up hope of him being anything other than an action fighter; one would imagine that the wake-up call would have come by now.
Ishihara’s subpar wrestling and lack of setup for his left hand play right into Kang’s hands. “Mr. Perfect” is a terrific grappler with some impressive size and strength for the division; he may not need more than one takedown to end Ishihara’s night. “Yashabo” comes out slugging, but Kang swiftly drags him to the mat, moves to mount, and secures the finish.
Prediction: Kang via first-round submission



155 lbs.: Lando Vannata vs. Marcos Rosa

Lando Vannata (9-3-2) went above and beyond in his short-notice UFC debut, giving Tony Ferguson one of his toughest fights to date and nearly finishing the future interim champ with a head kick. He has since gone 1-2-2, picking up two more “Fight of the Night” bonuses and one “Performance of the Night” along the way.
His eight finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Marcos Rosa (6-4) began his mixed martial arts (MMA) career just 2-3, but has won four of five since. His last three victories have all come by stoppage within 2:30.
“Dhalsim” stands at least three inches taller than Vannata, depending on which source you trust.
I feel like UFC is really digging into the bottom of the barrel in its search for someone Vannata can beat. The only things Rosa has going for him are his height, length and uncanny physical resemblance to Anderson Silva. He’s a decent striker, but his nonexistent ground game is a whole virtually anyone in UFC’s Lightweight division can exploit.
Literally all Vannata has to do to win this with ease is use his wrestling. It’s 50/50 between him doing that or brawling his way to another draw. Fingers crossed he actually uses his head this time.
Prediction: Vannata via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Jalin Turner vs. Callan Potter

Jalin Turner (7-4) put on a strong performance on “Contender Series,” forcing Max Mustaki to bow out with a broken foot, but did not receive a contract right away. “The Tarantula” instead stepped up on short notice against Vicente Luque, who knocked out the long-time Lightweight late in the first round.
All of his professional victories have come in five minutes or less.
Callan Potter (17-7) lost two of his first three professional bouts, facing the likes of future UFC competitors Richard Walsh and Jake Matthews along the way. He has now won nine of his last 10, the sole loss coming to dangerous submission ace Marcin Held.
He steps in for injured countryman Alex Gorgees on two weeks’ notice.
Turner had an easy assignment in front of him in Gorgees, and though Potter is a fair bit better than the man he’s replacing, the style matchup still favors Turner in a big way. Potter’s dangerous on the mat, but his striking defense is godawful, leaving him prone to relying on heroic comebacks.
Turner, unfortunately, hits like a truck, and Potter isn’t a good enough wrestler to keep him honest. So long as he stays aggressive and throws in combination, he should find his way around the Aussie’s guard before long and turn his lights out.
Prediction: Turner by first-round knockout

135 lbs.: Wuliji Buren vs. Jonathan Martinez

Wuliji Buren (11-6) entered UFC on a four-fight win streak, but couldn’t make it six against Rolando Dy despite a strong effort. “The Beastmaster” looked solid once again his next time out against Marlon Vera, only to succumb to a nasty body shot at the end of the second round.
He stands two inches taller than Martinez at 5’9.”
The only defeat for Jonathan Martinez (9-2) his first 10 fights came against future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) and UFC competitor Matt Schnell, whom Martinez hit with an illegal knee to earn a disqualification. He joined UFC on short notice in Oct. 2018, doing battle with Andre Soukhamthath and surviving a heavy knockdown en route to a unanimous decision loss.
He has knocked out five professional foes and submitted another two.
It’s really impressive how far Chinese MMA has come; it feels like yesterday that Tiequan Zhang was their biggest representative, and now even their lower-level guys like Buren are dangerous. This looks like a pick-‘em — after seeing the way Soukhamthath dwarfed Martinez, Buren will have the size advantage. At the same time, Buren looked vulnerable to southpaw striking against Vera and Martinez looks like he can keep up with his wrestling.
Buren’s history of stoppage losses and Martinez’s ability to fight through adversity are the cincher for me. Buren could impose his physicality early, but once Martinez starts landing his body kicks, it’s only a matter of time.
Prediction: Martinez via second-round technical knockout

[jacharron17]

Adesanya via 1st round KO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I always bet him LOL....hes usually a big fav and edges the W......he makes you sweat...but the ticket usually cashes

Not true. He has only won once in six UFC fights. Two Draws and Three Losses.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree with most of those MMAMania predictions

[JC2008]

I agree with most of those MMAMania predictions

Which ones don't you agree with, Hugo...?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Which ones don't you agree with, Hugo...?

I'm not sure on the Martinez/Buren fight. Going back and forth on that one. Like all the other picks to win and even method of victory on most.

[Shagdogy]

I'm not sure on the Martinez/Buren fight. Going back and forth on that one. Like all the other picks to win and even method of victory on most.

Only thing I really disagreed with was that Young/Arnett should be razor thin. I feel like Young walks him down, out lands Arnett 2-1, eats all his best return shots, and lands a few TDs as well. Late stoppage or 30-27 IMO. Unless Arnett is the first to stop Young I don’t see how he wins this. Hope I’m not wrong. Have Young in 2 parlays already.

[Shagdogy]

I'm not sure on the Martinez/Buren fight. Going back and forth on that one. Like all the other picks to win and even method of victory on most.

Tough fight to call but the write up makes the same points i was looking at. Buren can probably bully Martinez a little bit. I think Martinez lacks physicality. But Buren wilts when guys bring the pain and Martinez can prob bring enough to back him off and maybe stop him if he works the body successfully enough. It’s a bit of a grit mismatch with Martinez being the much grittier I think, and that could play a big role in a close fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tough fight to call but the write up makes the same points i was looking at. Buren can probably bully Martinez a little bit. I think Martinez lacks physicality. But Buren wilts when guys bring the pain and Martinez can prob bring enough to back him off and maybe stop him if he works the body successfully enough. It’s a bit of a grit mismatch with Martinez being the much grittier I think, and that could play a big role in a close fight.

Good points

[Pinoy-T-X]

All prelims favorites - parlay - Boom!

[Hugo de Naranja]

All prelims favorites - parlay - Boom!

I like it!

[bjpenn85]

Only thing I really disagreed with was that Young/Arnett should be razor thin. I feel like Young walks him down, out lands Arnett 2-1, eats all his best return shots, and lands a few TDs as well. Late stoppage or 30-27 IMO. Unless Arnett is the first to stop Young I don’t see how he wins this. Hope I’m not wrong. Have Young in 2 parlays already.

I have young in two parlays as well. I mean, in theory, if young is not a good bet, then what is? Arnett is so insecure, he is one of very few fighters that is actually less dangerous when he is hit. Remember Wanderlei Silva? He went berserk if you hit him hard. Arnett is so accepting of getting beat up hes just like....maybe i am a pussy? Wow, that shot hurt, are they suppose to hurt this much?

Young is probably my most confident pick on the card. Arnett is so inactive that he need a complete facelift/rejuvenation and yeah, that could happen, but 9 out of 10 times that doesnt happen so...im not even afraid of jinx here tbh.