[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes
Jose Aldo vs Renato Moicano
Lyman Good vs Demian Maia
Charles Oliveira vs David Teymur
Justin Ledet vs Johnny Walker
Sarah Frota vs Livinha Souza

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Anthony Hernandez vs Markus Perez
Mara Romero Borella vs Taila Santos
Thiago Alves vs Max Griffin
Junior Albini vs Jair Rozenstruik
Said Nurmagomedov vs Ricardo Ramos
Magomed Bibulatov vs Rogerio Bontorin

[KingHawkins]

I want to put a max bet in on Junior Albini and his diaper.

[Teem]

Need a rebound here after that Dillashaw loss : (

[Demonata]

Need a rebound here after that Dillashaw loss : (

Dillashaw is a dildo.

[THE_RUDESTER]

David Teymar -155 Seems like an easy win over Charles Oliveria. Teymar should be able to keep the fight on the feet and outstrike Oliveira easy. I don't see Oliveira getting the submission on Teymar. Should be a similar to what Holloway was doing against Oliveira while the fight lasted. Anyone agree/disagree here? Thinking of going heavy on Teymar -155 especially before any line movement.

[bjpenn85]

David Teymar -155 Seems like an easy win over Charles Oliveria. Teymar should be able to keep the fight on the feet and outstrike Oliveira easy. I don't see Oliveira getting the submission on Teymar. Should be a similar to what Holloway was doing against Oliveira while the fight lasted. Anyone agree/disagree here? Thinking of going heavy on Teymar -155 especially before any line movement.

Without a hedge on Oliveira submission? Not on my watch at least.

[PaperTrail07]

Walker-250

Like Moraes as well......sleeper skilllllllls

[HurlSweatPants]

David Teymar -155 Seems like an easy win over Charles Oliveria. Teymar should be able to keep the fight on the feet and outstrike Oliveira easy. I don't see Oliveira getting the submission on Teymar. Should be a similar to what Holloway was doing against Oliveira while the fight lasted. Anyone agree/disagree here? Thinking of going heavy on Teymar -155 especially before any line movement.

I'm leaning Olivera.

If you like Teymur, the smart move might be to hold. He was -175 earlier in the week and continues to slide. You will probably get a better number closer to fight day

[PaperTrail07]

Agree w waiting...esp bc its in Brazil...

I'm leaning Olivera.

If you like Teymur, the smart move might be to hold. He was -175 earlier in the week and continues to slide. You will probably get a better number closer to fight day

[firekillex]

great under the radar card
johnny walker with the quick turn around fight... not huge names but exciting fights

[Demonata]

great under the radar card
johnny walker with the quick turn around fight... not huge names but exciting fights

Did you buy espn +? Is it worth it?

[firekillex]

Did you buy espn +? Is it worth it?

nope i havent , i heard it had some issues with streaming... those kind of things i typically like to wait a few months into it so its all working smoothly then ill see if its worth while.. pretty sures its only $5 a month which sounds like a steal tbh

[turbozed]

Did you buy espn +? Is it worth it?

You can pay $50 for the year. For $4.25 a month, if you don't already don't pay for cable, I think it's great. I travel a lot and didn't have a good way to watch FOX sports streams. So my fightpass and other (ahem) streams were always 30 seconds behind. Was rough for live betting.

ESPN+ was about 20 seconds earlier than the Fightpass stream when I tested and that alone is worth $4 per month if not per event (even per fight). Getting in on a line 20 seconds earlier is worth hundreds of dollars in saved juice per year IMO.

Another thing good about ESPN+ is that the stream is ultra smooth. Looks like 60 fps whereas FP is choppy as hell. It worked perfectly during the early prelims but started freezing up (maybe 4 or 5 times total) during the main card. If they can fix these issues, I'd be very happy. Right now I'd say it's barely better than fightpass.

[bjpenn85]

You can pay $50 for the year. For $4.25 a month, if you don't already don't pay for cable, I think it's great. I travel a lot and didn't have a good way to watch FOX sports streams. So my fightpass and other (ahem) streams were always 30 seconds behind. Was rough for live betting.



ESPN+ was about 20 seconds earlier than the Fightpass stream when I tested and that alone is worth $4 per month if not per event (even per fight). Getting in on a line 20 seconds earlier is worth hundreds of dollars in saved juice per year IMO.

Another thing good about ESPN+ is that the stream is ultra smooth. Looks like 60 fps whereas FP is choppy as hell. It worked perfectly during the early prelims but started freezing up (maybe 4 or 5 times total) during the main card. If they can fix these issues, I'd be very happy. Right now I'd say it's barely better than fightpass.

Same library as fightpass?

I dont understand, if the answer is yes, why would anyone by fightpass, if they can get the same product for half the price at espn+?

[bjpenn85]

*buy

[PaperTrail07]

They made it cheap enough people won't DIE hunting for a solid stream lol -and just buy...smart call....always want more eyes on the screen...grow the sport

You can pay $50 for the year. For $4.25 a month, if you don't already don't pay for cable, I think it's great. I travel a lot and didn't have a good way to watch FOX sports streams. So my fightpass and other (ahem) streams were always 30 seconds behind. Was rough for live betting.

ESPN+ was about 20 seconds earlier than the Fightpass stream when I tested and that alone is worth $4 per month if not per event (even per fight). Getting in on a line 20 seconds earlier is worth hundreds of dollars in saved juice per year IMO.

Another thing good about ESPN+ is that the stream is ultra smooth. Looks like 60 fps whereas FP is choppy as hell. It worked perfectly during the early prelims but started freezing up (maybe 4 or 5 times total) during the main card. If they can fix these issues, I'd be very happy. Right now I'd say it's barely better than fightpass.

[UncleChael]

You're crazy, if you don't think Rafael Assuncao has a chance.

[PaperTrail07]

obviously....they split last time lol......but don't forget Moraes got ROBBED

You're crazy, if you don't think Rafael Assuncao has a chance.

[bjpenn85]

Any thoughts for this card gentlemans? Moicano, will he cruise like he nearly almost does? Can Teymurs submission defence withstand first 5 minutes where oliveira 100% will get a takedown? Any soft lines somewhere? Speak up

[Thor4140]

I think the only way Moicano loses to Aldo is he respects him to much like he did with Stevens. He did win that fight tho.

[turbozed]

Same library as fightpass?

I dont understand, if the answer is yes, why would anyone by fightpass, if they can get the same product for half the price at espn+?

Not same library as Fightpass I don't think. They don't have stuff like Invicta, Glory, KOTC, etc.

[turbozed]

I think the only way Moicano loses to Aldo is he respects him to much like he did with Stevens. He did win that fight tho.

Aldo's defense and counter game is hard to beat unless you're very tricky with set-ups and movement like Max. Even Frankie was using a ton of lateral movement and feints and couldn't get much done. Moicano is a great fighter but he's not very difficult to predict and counter. In the pocket Aldo is a more dangerous and accurate brawler. Unless Aldo has hit the wall, I think Aldo should be the favorite.

[Thor4140]

Aldo's defense and counter game is hard to beat unless you're very tricky with set-ups and movement like Max. Even Frankie was using a ton of lateral movement and feints and couldn't get much done. Moicano is a great fighter but he's not very difficult to predict and counter. In the pocket Aldo is a more dangerous and accurate brawler. Unless Aldo has hit the wall, I think Aldo should be the favorite.

I just think he has slipped a notch. Not much but just enuf where others have caught up. In his defense tho he shouldn’t have to worry much abut getting taken down and should unleash that kicking game it seems he has forgotten about.

[turbozed]

I made a play on Mara Borella as the dog around +160. Think there's a good chance she outclasses Taila on the mat. Taila hasn't fought anywhere near the level of Borella whereas Borella overpowered a pretty strong Faria and was competitive striking with Chookagian. At the worst, I feel like it's a close decision.

[bjpenn85]

I made a play on Mara Borella as the dog around +160. Think there's a good chance she outclasses Taila on the mat. Taila hasn't fought anywhere near the level of Borella whereas Borella overpowered a pretty strong Faria and was competitive striking with Chookagian. At the worst, I feel like it's a close decision.

cool, will check

[firekillex]

I just think he has slipped a notch. Not much but just enuf where others have caught up. In his defense tho he shouldn’t have to worry much abut getting taken down and should unleash that kicking game it seems he has forgotten about.

i really dont understand why Aldo has gotten away from his kicking game... its literally his best weapon and i feel like the first Holloway fight he wouldve had a real shot to win if he threw some kicks... Seems like he struggles a bit with longer opponents though and Moicano is huge for the weight.. gonna be an interesting fight for sure

[Teem]

The lines that interest me are Maia, Teymur, Ramos, and Aldo. Maia and Teymur for sure. Good likes to grapple from what I've read, and I believe this is a stepdown in competition for Maia. I also think Teymur can stuff those takedowns and keep it standing. This would be doom for Oliveira. I want to believe in Aldo but can't quite pull the trigger yet.

[jacharron17]

I think Moicano has a 70% chance of winning and Lyman good with a 50-55% chance of winning.

[bjpenn85]

I think Moicano has a 70% chance of winning and Lyman good with a 50-55% chance of winning.

70% = 1.42, which means that current line for you (1.67) is pretty sweet.

I think Moicano will win, but i dont know if laying money down

[Demonata]

I kinda like aldo at plus money...

[bjpenn85]

I made a play on Mara Borella as the dog around +160. Think there's a good chance she outclasses Taila on the mat. Taila hasn't fought anywhere near the level of Borella whereas Borella overpowered a pretty strong Faria and was competitive striking with Chookagian. At the worst, I feel like it's a close decision.

Ok, ive seen both of Mara fights in the UFC and i have seen Taila Santos on youtube + on Dana White contender series.

Lets take standing first. Santos is a classical muay thay striker. Good headmovement, fluid strikes, good movement. Shes VERY athletic, good takedown defence. Shes is striking wise plane and simple very good. A lot better than Chookagien, and probably a lot better than Chookagian will ever be. Its impossible to know how good her ground game is, but since she is really good standing, she probably is mediocre at best. And will obviously be at a ground game disadvantage against Mara.

Mara Borella is a ground fighter with seemingly ok striking. Against Chookagian she displayed some concerning features. Passive as hell, a bit afraid for some reason (looks like she burries her head between her arms all the time), and very stationary and flat footed. Allthough she was competitive against Chookagian she was fairly ok with Chookagian moving around and taking the initiative. Almost no effort to take the fight to the ground where she probably would have won. So she might have some bad fighter iq/bad coaches.

In this fight i see two scenarios, one which is the most likely scenario, is that Santos win a convincing 30-27 on all judges scorecards, or an early finish where Mara takes it to the ground and submits Santos.

I would also like to add that Santos last fought a fighter with the name Almeida (8-2), since you mentioned that Santos hadnt faced anyone. Almeida has lost to two people. One being Taila Santos, our mentioned fighter, and the other one being Keitlin Viera which probably is a top 3 fighter in the world. And my point being here, i think that Almeida actually has better striking then Mara, but Santos still, easily....EASILY outstriked her. Were talking 30-27 on all judges score cards. So this "she hasnt faced the same level of competition" is a statement that causes more harm then good in this situation. Because it doesnt explain the full picture in my opinion. Santos hasnt fought anyone good except for Almeida, but does that make her less athletic? Less fluid? Does this alter her defence? It matters nothing. Messi is still messi if he plays in primera div or in div 2. Skills is what matters and im making a bet, fast as hell on this women. She will climb the ladder faster than a monkey.

This fight is a pure striking vs grappler scenario. If mara doesnt get this to the mat, shes fckd

I will be betting on Taila Santos after watching these clips, and have a hedge on Mara as safety.

[bjpenn85]

Just to further add to my point.

Take Milana Dudieva, a fighter which everyone in the UFC easily beat with the consequence she was cut after 4 consecutive losses to Pena, Renau, Borella and Porto respectively.

So if Dudieva is able to fight close to Maras level, how can Mara still fight competitively with chookagian which is is more or less at the top of div in the ufc. Obviously, because they all suck, divisions are shallow. But the fact that Mara Borella fought this close with Dudieva is a red flag. She is better now, but she still is passive. So shes not going to score on Santos. If youre not scoring youre not winning. Shes needs to finde a home for the sub.

Loopsided dec, or late stoppage by Santos.

Off course as long as Santos doesnt get submitted. But from tape her ground game looks ok, and i think she will defend them off.


Borella vs dudieva Invicta - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6DeMlWbqKI

Santos vs Almeida DWCS - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-L4dsRnwyA&t=7058s

[bjpenn85]

I made a play on Mara Borella as the dog around +160. Think there's a good chance she outclasses Taila on the mat. Taila hasn't fought anywhere near the level of Borella whereas Borella overpowered a pretty strong Faria and was competitive striking with Chookagian. At the worst, I feel like it's a close decision.

But according to this site you have played Santos? https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_betting_...lla&Fight=3636

Are you fkking with people here to drive the line up so you can bet more on Santos? LOL

OR are you picking Santos to win straight, but betting on Borella?

Thats confusing.

[turbozed]

But according to this site you have played Santos? https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_betting_...lla&Fight=3636

Are you fkking with people here to drive the line up so you can bet more on Santos? LOL

OR are you picking Santos to win straight, but betting on Borella?

Thats confusing.

It's a mistake actually. I posted the breakdown along with the pick so it's clear I'm backing Borella there. Here's the breakdown:

Taila Santos is a kickboxing stylist sporting a 15-0 record. Except for maybe 2 of her opponents, Santos has been destroying the absolute bottom of the barrel opponents. Her last opponent before her appearance on Conteder Series was a 0-1 fighter who would go on to 0-9 in the next couple years. Mara Borella is a well-rounded boxer/grappler that looks to have made huge improvements since training at ATT. She made her American debut against Dudieva in Invicta just a year and a half ago, and since then has earned an impressive submission win against the strong Kalinda Faria and dropped a competitive striking contest against Katlyn Chookagian. Despite her UFC experience, she is the underdog in this matchup. This somewhat makes sense as Mara will be flying into enemy territory to fight an undefeated fighter who looked to have impressive striking in her DWCS fight, whereas Mara spent 3 rounds with Chookagian mostly abusing the air in her last fight. Taila's kickboxing does look good, but this isn't a kickboxing match. She looks technical when she's in her preferred range, but when Almeida rushed at her, all she did was retreat back to the cage. If Taila can't stop girls from coming at her with strikes, or angle off to avoid the cage, then it's a trivial matter for grapplers to get their hands on her. At that point it'll be about strength in the clinch and Borella seems pretty strong muscling down supposed judo black belts like Dudieva. In open mat scenarios, Talia also let Almeida get deep into TD shots standing very upright. I don't think her TDD looked great at all, moreso Almeida TD looked like garbage not driving through whatsoever. If Borella gets that deep and just throws a leg around for a trip, I expect Taila to go down pretty easy. If you look at Almeida's record, she also is a huge can crusher without one win over a decent opponent (every girl she beat with a winning record are on losing skids). Almeida is several levels below the likes of Chookagian and Kalinda Faria imo, and she's one of the best wins on Talia's record. We don't know much about Taila's grappling except that she's listed as a BJJ blue belt. Borella is the same, but her mma grappling appears to be good enough to submit Faria who is supposedly a brown belt. I think with the information gaps it's either dog or pass. Even if we assume Santos's skills translate to the higher level, she only comfortably won a decision against a very bad DWCS opponent. The only other reasonably skilled opponent she fought was Gisele Moreira, and that went to decision as well. If she does win, I'm guessing it will almost surely be by a somewhat close decision. On the other end, if Santos is really not ready for this level, then I can see Mara winning by sub or by a dominant grappling decision. At around +160, it's hard not to take a shot on Borella.

On your point about Ketlen. I watched that fight with Almeida and it was a pretty easy 30-27 win for Ketlen which she approached almost like a sparring match. In the 3rd round, she threw like 4 head kicks in a row which is something you only do if you feel very confident that you're not going to get taken down or be countered for it. Ketlen went to split decision with Kelly Fasholz in her next fight and UFC debut, so I don't think it's safe to say that she was nowhere near the same fighter she is now when she fought Almeida.

Pretty looking muay thai is great and all, but in an MMA context we've seen it lose just last week. Lipski looked just as technical as Taila, has faster hands, and fought better girls in KSW. But she lost all her pop in one round being on her back. Anyway, we will find out soon and I appreciate your input!

[bjpenn85]

It's a mistake actually. I posted the breakdown along with the pick so it's clear I'm backing Borella there. Here's the breakdown:

Taila Santos is a kickboxing stylist sporting a 15-0 record. Except for maybe 2 of her opponents, Santos has been destroying the absolute bottom of the barrel opponents. Her last opponent before her appearance on Conteder Series was a 0-1 fighter who would go on to 0-9 in the next couple years. Mara Borella is a well-rounded boxer/grappler that looks to have made huge improvements since training at ATT. She made her American debut against Dudieva in Invicta just a year and a half ago, and since then has earned an impressive submission win against the strong Kalinda Faria and dropped a competitive striking contest against Katlyn Chookagian. Despite her UFC experience, she is the underdog in this matchup. This somewhat makes sense as Mara will be flying into enemy territory to fight an undefeated fighter who looked to have impressive striking in her DWCS fight, whereas Mara spent 3 rounds with Chookagian mostly abusing the air in her last fight. Taila's kickboxing does look good, but this isn't a kickboxing match. She looks technical when she's in her preferred range, but when Almeida rushed at her, all she did was retreat back to the cage. If Taila can't stop girls from coming at her with strikes, or angle off to avoid the cage, then it's a trivial matter for grapplers to get their hands on her. At that point it'll be about strength in the clinch and Borella seems pretty strong muscling down supposed judo black belts like Dudieva. In open mat scenarios, Talia also let Almeida get deep into TD shots standing very upright. I don't think her TDD looked great at all, moreso Almeida TD looked like garbage not driving through whatsoever. If Borella gets that deep and just throws a leg around for a trip, I expect Taila to go down pretty easy. If you look at Almeida's record, she also is a huge can crusher without one win over a decent opponent (every girl she beat with a winning record are on losing skids). Almeida is several levels below the likes of Chookagian and Kalinda Faria imo, and she's one of the best wins on Talia's record. We don't know much about Taila's grappling except that she's listed as a BJJ blue belt. Borella is the same, but her mma grappling appears to be good enough to submit Faria who is supposedly a brown belt. I think with the information gaps it's either dog or pass. Even if we assume Santos's skills translate to the higher level, she only comfortably won a decision against a very bad DWCS opponent. The only other reasonably skilled opponent she fought was Gisele Moreira, and that went to decision as well. If she does win, I'm guessing it will almost surely be by a somewhat close decision. On the other end, if Santos is really not ready for this level, then I can see Mara winning by sub or by a dominant grappling decision. At around +160, it's hard not to take a shot on Borella.

On your point about Ketlen. I watched that fight with Almeida and it was a pretty easy 30-27 win for Ketlen which she approached almost like a sparring match. In the 3rd round, she threw like 4 head kicks in a row which is something you only do if you feel very confident that you're not going to get taken down or be countered for it. Ketlen went to split decision with Kelly Fasholz in her next fight and UFC debut, so I don't think it's safe to say that she was nowhere near the same fighter she is now when she fought Almeida.

Pretty looking muay thai is great and all, but in an MMA context we've seen it lose just last week. Lipski looked just as technical as Taila, has faster hands, and fought better girls in KSW. But she lost all her pop in one round being on her back. Anyway, we will find out soon and I appreciate your input!

Well put, thats a high level breakdown. I still do not agree with the sentiments. Lipski is not comparable to Santos level. She had pretty few combos, and therefor was as predictable as you can only expect from very low lever fighters, really bad coordination and poor movement pattern, she also put everything into every shot, the list goes on and on. Lipski and Santos are not on the same level. But, youre point is valid so were in agreement here i think. Grappling, clinching, experience is def on youre side. It is a severe disadvantage that someone has fought in invicta and UFC and you have fought people with 0-4 record. Its the combination of faults in Maras game that have me interested in Santos.

Clinchwork, angling to the side when pressured etc all these small details we simply dont have the luxury with so little tape at hand hehe. Im just banking on that Santos have these things in check. TDD should be good enough imo, i havent seen so much of it, but i know that Borellos takdowns are very...very, poor imo. And thats not necessarily because she got so bad wrestling, she doesnt have the striking to set up the takedowns or the timing. I mean when youre only gameplan should be to take down chookagian and you dont manage to pull of more than 1 during 15 minutes, how much confidence can one really have? Santos seem well enough equipped. From my perspective is grappling and clinching and just overall experience a huge question mark so i cant bet a lot on Santos.