[Hugo de Naranja]

He said he is at 138 right now and real happy with it. I remember i heard him once say that he likes to train at the weight he fights. What he meant is that when he fights at 135 he usually comes in at say 148. He says he will train at 148 to get the maximum of his training. The guy has skills and is a thinker. A nice combination to have.

He was 151 Pounds on fight day for the second fight against Garbrandt so 138 for a Flyweight fight seems like he is on a great pace to make the weight.

[bjpenn85]

Man, this guy is focused - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nkib5gY0q98&t=500s

Listen from 5.16 !!!

[bjpenn85]

I like the predictions this guy makes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBo4aDTDPnM

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like the predictions this guy makes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBo4aDTDPnM

I know the guy who runs this podcast. He’s an excellent bettor.

[bjpenn85]

I know the guy who runs this podcast. He’s an excellent bettor.

Great minds think....etc

[Thrilla]

You still haven't answered my question.

How many BetPoints we going?

Unc? He's gone now, you won't see him until Round 5 UFC main event january 19th.

[Thrilla]

Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier previews the Fight Night Brooklyn main event matchup between flyweight champion Henry Cejudo and bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw.

Presented by Toyo Tires, bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw shows he's just like us and talks all things superheros, fighting a clone of himself, and his not so glamorous first job.

[Teem]

Do you guys think ESPN will start some sort of fantasy pickem thing that the UFC website used to have? I'm not seeing any news of one but I miss doing that with friends.

[Thrilla]

[Hugo de Naranja]

Do you guys think ESPN will start some sort of fantasy pickem thing that the UFC website used to have? I'm not seeing any news of one but I miss doing that with friends.

I hope so. That would be great!

[praisebuddha]

Cejudo looking to be in the shape of his life!

[Thrilla]

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone reflects on three of his personally memorable past performances among his illustrious 46-fight MMA career.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I've always really enjoyed Cowboy's fights. Hopefully he gets another win next weekend.

[qxcydx]

Anyone know how dillashaws training clips and pics have affected the line? Is it swinging at all? Embedded is about to give people yet more reason to like cejudo, dillashaw is about to fail the eye test for most, especially those on the fence and people who have no idea how truly brilliant this weight drop has been for dillashaw. I see great value in a lot of markets on this fight and will post my picks but my main focus is on the movement of the line, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were able to get tj as a dog in the final 6 hours, unlikely of course but far from impossible. Thoughts ?

[bjpenn85]

Anyone know how dillashaws training clips and pics have affected the line? Is it swinging at all? Embedded is about to give people yet more reason to like cejudo, dillashaw is about to fail the eye test for most, especially those on the fence and people who have no idea how truly brilliant this weight drop has been for dillashaw. I see great value in a lot of markets on this fight and will post my picks but my main focus is on the movement of the line, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were able to get tj as a dog in the final 6 hours, unlikely of course but far from impossible. Thoughts ?

TJ as a dog, may happen, but i do think he needs to fail weight considerably. Line has been quite stable at around 1.50 at best-1.44 at worst.
Failing to make weight will def alter the line, line movement will be proportional to pounds failed. Considerable fail , considerable line movement!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone know how dillashaws training clips and pics have affected the line? Is it swinging at all? Embedded is about to give people yet more reason to like cejudo, dillashaw is about to fail the eye test for most, especially those on the fence and people who have no idea how truly brilliant this weight drop has been for dillashaw. I see great value in a lot of markets on this fight and will post my picks but my main focus is on the movement of the line, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were able to get tj as a dog in the final 6 hours, unlikely of course but far from impossible. Thoughts ?

Would be shocked if Dillashaw is a dog at any point in the leadup to the fight.

Also, I don’t think they do Embedded for non-PPVs (though this May change under the ESPN deal). Not sure how Dillashaw will “fail the eye test for most” since he’s looking shredded.

[ichiro4thehall]

Anyone know how dillashaws training clips and pics have affected the line? Is it swinging at all? Embedded is about to give people yet more reason to like cejudo, dillashaw is about to fail the eye test for most, especially those on the fence and people who have no idea how truly brilliant this weight drop has been for dillashaw. I see great value in a lot of markets on this fight and will post my picks but my main focus is on the movement of the line, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were able to get tj as a dog in the final 6 hours, unlikely of course but far from impossible. Thoughts ?

Dillishaw won't be a dog at any point. I agree his price will drift tho.

I disagree with your weight cut theory, too. I should say I used to agree with your point and it's a moot point anyway imo because TJ is a super pro like McGrgor and always makes weight.

In the last couple of years, we've seen a lot of fighters miss weight by a lot. I believe they miss weight by a lot becasue they quit they cut early knowing they can't make weight and would rather accept the percentage purse loss and not kill their chances of winning the fight. Fighters who try until the end to make weight and fail are double losers if you like, they harm their fight chances and lose 30 percent of the purse.

This is shown in numbers, too. In 2018 fighters who missed weight were 7-2. The Till missed cut for the Thompson fight was the best example of the new school thinking of missing weight. Till missed weight by a large chunk. I bet he quit his cut early. For missing weight he lost 30 percent of his purse. However, he wins the fight, gets his title shot and prob made 5x his previous purse in the title shot. Had he killed himself to make weight it's doubtful he would have had the great cardio he had in the Thompson fight and might have lost it. He made the right decision.

Incidentally, that's why I have heard a few fighters calling for far harsher penalties for missing weight and for some fighters like Woodley refusing to fight opponents should they not make weight.

[CasaBonita]

No way TJ is gonna be a dog, and if he dosent make weight JB is gonna step in i guess, worthless to make a fight with out the belt on the line...
Im big on TJ also have Cerrone Dec, Bermudez, Hardy and couple props good luck everyone!


PS: Where do u guys usually live bet b365 o 5dimes?

[UncleChael]

Cejudo looking to be in the shape of his life!

I was around SBR when we hit the 25-1 TJ inside the distance to finish Barao and I haven't looked back since. How sharp am I?
I know a few that picked Platinum over the Cowboy...

[Thrilla]

At a media lunch Monday in Los Angeles, T.J. Dillashaw discusses his flyweight title fight against Henry Cejudo at UFC on ESPN+ 1, cutting down to 125 pounds to compete, having the bout switched from pay-per-view to streaming and more.

[JIBBBY]

At almost 2-1 odds I might go with Henry^^^

Dill probably wins by decision though would be my normal thinking but Henry is working hard and improving. Has he arrived we'll see?

[Shagdogy]

What's up everyone... disappeared for a while. Poking my head back in. Of course I have nothing to offer. Been through most of these fights and finding this card a pretty terrible one at least with regards to MLs so far.

Anyone take a close look at PVZ vs. Ostovich? PVZ is one of the very few who move up in weight and don't have immediate success. Seems like the only reason Ostovich is dog odds is the name value of PVZ. Not a fight i'm particularly confident picking, but think there's some line value with Ostovich.

[RussianMike]

What part of his fight game has Henry improved even a bit in the past say 2-3 years? He's looked like the same fighter in that octagon for almost a decade now, far as I'm concerned. Not knocking him, just think he's been polished for a long time now, and pretty much you know what you gonna get with him a a fighter in there. Just don't think he has a level in him that can compete with TJ.

[firekillex]

What part of his fight game has Henry improved even a bit in the past say 2-3 years? He's looked like the same fighter in that octagon for almost a decade now, far as I'm concerned. Not knocking him, just think he's been polished for a long time now, and pretty much you know what you gonna get with him a a fighter in there. Just don't think he has a level in him that can compete with TJ.

his striking has improved vastly.. not sure what youre seeing

regardless TJ going to maul him on the feet IMO

[Hugo de Naranja]

What part of his fight game has Henry improved even a bit in the past say 2-3 years? He's looked like the same fighter in that octagon for almost a decade now, far as I'm concerned. Not knocking him, just think he's been polished for a long time now, and pretty much you know what you gonna get with him a a fighter in there. Just don't think he has a level in him that can compete with TJ.

That's strange since he made his UFC Debut in December 2014 and Pro Debut in March 2013.

I'm on TJ here too but Cejudo has very obviously improved if you've actually watched his fights.

[Unwritten Law]

I agree Cejudo's striking has improved a lot. Will it be enough to sustain against TJ? I think Cejudo will need to rely on his wrestling to win on points like he did vs DJ. I don't think he'll outstrike TJ on the feet. This is champion vs champion, so who knows who the judges will favor since the "challenger" would need to definitively win the fight.

I still would take TJ in this one though.

[RussianMike]

Ok, maybe not a decade, what I just meant is I really don't see what he is doing now that is in any way different from what he was doing when he lost to Benevitez. Don't see a different fighter in that Octagon. And don't really think he was fighting any differently even before that. Just see the same guy, just maybe better fight IQ, less lunges.

Not knocking him, just think he's as technically sound in his strike game now as he has always been. Where's the evolution?

Anyways, anybody else looking at taking fliers against Hardy simply due to the fact that name recognition is def inflating that line?

[HurlSweatPants]

Ok, maybe not a decade, what I just meant is I really don't see what he is doing now that is in any way different from what he was doing when he lost to Benevitez. Don't see a different fighter in that Octagon. And don't really think he was fighting any differently even before that. Just see the same guy, just maybe better fight IQ, less lunges.

Not knocking him, just think he's as technically sound in his strike game now as he has always been. Where's the evolution?

Anyways, anybody else looking at taking fliers against Hardy simply due to the fact that name recognition is def inflating that line?

People seem to think his striking has greatly improved because of the Reis fight, should be on display against T.J. so we'll see. I moreso agree with you, that he has figured his range and has a better IQ on when to change levels. Maybe this fight will offer more on his stand up, where I believe Killishaw has a huge advantage.

As far as Hardy, I got the line in the high -200's and used it as a small parlay, but last I looked, he and Gillespes numbers are way too inflated to put $ on. I might even put a small amount on Crowder to minimize any upset damage, Hardy is still a work in progress despite his athleticism and heavy hands. I just dont know if Crowder is the guy to expose him or not.

[HurlSweatPants]

p.s. good to see BJ back, this forum needs more MMA and less BS politics.

[UncleChael]

TJ's gonna get his ass kicked! He's gets taken down by a high school wrestler!

[JIBBBY]

his striking has improved vastly.. not sure what youre seeing

regardless TJ going to maul him on the feet IMO

Might be the other way around.

[bjpenn85]

People seem to think his striking has greatly improved because of the Reis fight, should be on display against T.J. so we'll see. I moreso agree with you, that he has figured his range and has a better IQ on when to change levels. Maybe this fight will offer more on his stand up, where I believe Killishaw has a huge advantage.


As far as Hardy, I got the line in the high -200's and used it as a small parlay, but last I looked, he and Gillespes numbers are way too inflated to put $ on. I might even put a small amount on Crowder to minimize any upset damage, Hardy is still a work in progress despite his athleticism and heavy hands. I just dont know if Crowder is the guy to expose him or not.

If crowder will expose Hardy, then i dont think he is as good as we tought. Just by that iitty bitty tape available from fightpass, i think its more than enough to conclude that more or less all parameters goes to Hardy. Crowder isnt bad at all, he just cant take Hardy.

The first 3 min will be too brutal for most lower level heavyweights, Crowder should take him down, but the UFC didnt book any top level wrestler, they book Crowder. Crowder is 100% not that guy.

Only playable line here is maybe under 1.5 rounds. Even the 1.round prop is down to 1.43.

[bjpenn85]

TJ's gonna get his ass kicked! He's gets taken down by a high school wrestler!

You like cejudo striking wise or to dry hump him an squeeze out a dec?

I see some like cejudo for a KO win. Its not out of the realm of possibility. I think Cejudo has power. He put a lot of force into his punches sometimes.

Wrestling not a huge problem i think. I think TJ wins a 5 round fight, not so much if clipped. I therefor took a sprinkle on that TKO at +900 por favor!!

[bjpenn85]

TJ's gonna get his ass kicked! He's gets taken down by a high school wrestler!

I dont know with you guys, but i think Cejudo is really nerd. Awful sense of humour and just so annoying. But one hell of a fighter.

Do you see Cejudo outstrike TJ?

[firekillex]

Might be the other way around.

id say TJ has a better chance to out wrestle Cejudo then Cejudo has a chance to outstrike TJ
great thing about MMA well all see this weekend