[Sanity Check]

Considering avatar change to this:



Good idea / bad idea?

[Demonata]

Considering avatar change to this:



Good idea / bad idea?

Be good without covington, he's a bitch

[Sanity Check]

Covington is from oregon(the same place Chael is from).

That could explain his WWF/WWE public persona.

I think people will accept him eventually if he can back up the talk.

I remember back when Tony Ferguson was on the ultimate fighter, a lot of people hated him. Now he's one of the most popular fighters around.

[bjpenn85]

If I remember right, Jack Hermansson out-grappled Thales Leites while fighting with an injured rib last time out.

Hermansson out-grappled Thales Leites who has a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ but Meerschaert has the grappling advantage?

How did you come to this conclusion?




Maybe I'll be proven wrong here but this goes with what I said earlier about Hugo perhaps not being as solid as some think.

I see your point IMO the grappling may be even,with a slight advantage to Hermansson, Hermansson should in theory be better. But i think Hugos point still stands overall. Its an even fight, Meerschaert is quite good defensively and well versed in the grappling arena the one thing that stands out for Hermansson. So its not like Hermansson can just take him down without any problems and finish the fight. But i still think he will finish the fight and win, im just not as sure as i was before seeing Meerschart having his way with Oscar piechota.

[Sanity Check]

I see your point IMO the grappling may be even,with a slight advantage to Hermansson, Hermansson should in theory be better. But i think Hugos point still stands overall. Its an even fight, Meerschaert is quite good defensively and well versed in the grappling arena the one thing that stands out for Hermansson. So its not like Hermansson can just take him down without any problems and finish the fight. But i still think he will finish the fight and win, im just not as sure as i was before seeing Meerschart having his way with Oscar piechota.

.

Meerschaert had his way with Piechota?


GERALD MEERSCHAERTVS.OSKAR PIECHOTA


ROUND 1


Piechota barges inside to clinch, gets pushed against the wall, then hits an outside trip to put Meerschaert on his back at the foot of the fence. Piechota lands in full mount but steps off to half guard in order to better control the position. Now it's side control for Piechota, spinning to north-south position as Meerschaert gets to his knees. Piechota immediately begins hunting for a D'arce choke, forcing Meerschaert to surrender mount again as he drops to his back. Meerschaert rolls to his knees again, giving Piechota another opportunity to try a front choke. Meerschaert drops to his back and puts Piechota back in guard, and the Pole stays there long enough to hear a stand-up command from referee Chris Tognoni. Piechota stings Meerschaert with a right-handed counter, then floors him with another. This time, Piechota attaches himself to Meerschaert's back, locks on a rear-naked choke, but loses his hooks and the RNC as they hit the 20-second mark. Meerschaert looks to get up and catch Piechota in a late choke attempt as the round comes to a close.SHERDOG SCORES

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-8 Piechota
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Piechota
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Piechota

.


http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/The-Ultimate-Fighter-27-Finale-PlaybyPlay-Results-RoundbyRound-Scoring-138997


.


Piechota mounted Meerschaert twice in a dominant round 1.

Very interesting.

[bjpenn85]

.

Meerschaert had his way with Piechota?


GERALD MEERSCHAERTVS.OSKAR PIECHOTA


ROUND 1


Piechota barges inside to clinch, gets pushed against the wall, then hits an outside trip to put Meerschaert on his back at the foot of the fence. Piechota lands in full mount but steps off to half guard in order to better control the position. Now it's side control for Piechota, spinning to north-south position as Meerschaert gets to his knees. Piechota immediately begins hunting for a D'arce choke, forcing Meerschaert to surrender mount again as he drops to his back. Meerschaert rolls to his knees again, giving Piechota another opportunity to try a front choke. Meerschaert drops to his back and puts Piechota back in guard, and the Pole stays there long enough to hear a stand-up command from referee Chris Tognoni. Piechota stings Meerschaert with a right-handed counter, then floors him with another. This time, Piechota attaches himself to Meerschaert's back, locks on a rear-naked choke, but loses his hooks and the RNC as they hit the 20-second mark. Meerschaert looks to get up and catch Piechota in a late choke attempt as the round comes to a close.SHERDOG SCORES

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-8 Piechota
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Piechota
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Piechota

.


http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/The-Ultimate-Fighter-27-Finale-PlaybyPlay-Results-RoundbyRound-Scoring-138997


.


Piechota mounted Meerschaert twice in a dominant round 1.

Very interesting.

Yeah yeah, its not accurate to describe it like that, it wasnt a breakdown, just a conclusion. My point stands. That second round was very violent. My impression is that meerschaert is solid. So im holding back on my hermansson bet, thats all.

Any bets this weekend for you sanity?

[Sanity Check]

Yeah yeah, its not accurate to describe it like that, it wasnt a breakdown, just a conclusion. My point stands. That second round was very violent. My impression is that meerschaert is solid. So im holding back on my hermansson bet, thats all.

Any bets this weekend for you sanity?

Feel tempted to play it like this.

Kevin Lee > Al Iaquinta
Edson Barboza > Dan Hooker
Rob Font > Sergio Pettis
Jim Miller < Charles Oliveira
Zak Ottow < Dwight Grant
Bobby Green < Drakkar Klose
Jared Gordon < Joaquim Silva
Gerald Meerschaert < Jack Hermansson
Dan Ige > Jordan Griffin
Jessica-Rose Clark > Andrea Lee
Adam Milstead > Mike Rodriguez
Trevor Smith < Zak Cummings
Chris de la Rocha > Juan Adams

.

I have to find ways to make money other than gambling.

Something more profitable.

[CasaBonita]

Im adding 2u on Dan Hooker -109

[bjpenn85]

Feel tempted to play it like this.

Kevin Lee > Al Iaquinta
Edson Barboza > Dan Hooker
Rob Font > Sergio Pettis
Jim Miller < Charles Oliveira
Zak Ottow < Dwight Grant
Bobby Green < Drakkar Klose
Jared Gordon < Joaquim Silva
Gerald Meerschaert < Jack Hermansson
Dan Ige > Jordan Griffin
Jessica-Rose Clark > Andrea Lee
Adam Milstead > Mike Rodriguez
Trevor Smith < Zak Cummings
Chris de la Rocha > Juan Adams

.

I have to find ways to make money other than gambling.

Something more profitable.

Rob Font, whats the deal? i just watched some tape, very not impressive against assuncao. I mean, he doesnt seem to have a big arsenal of strikes. If someone figures him out a bit, like in the tomas silva fight and also in the assuncao fight, he just stops striking. I dont like that. I like people whos good at adapting, and changing things up. He did smoke Silva though, se would never see how a fight with a silva with a good chin would have looked like. The assuncao fight is just a disaster when it comes to fighter iq. So yeah. But maybe you guys see something i dont see.

Let me know.

And, are you betting all the fights?

[KingHawkins]

27 people have plays on Mike Rodriguez, vs 3 for Adam Milstead on betmma.tips

Action all on the underdog Rodriguez, line is down to -145 at one shop, The Greek holding on at -170 ....

What am I missing here???

Milstead said within past few days he'll retire if he loses this fight, which I don't particularly care to here from a guy I am backing, but maybe I am thinking too far into that comment.

[PaperTrail07]

Oliveira seems like he should get the W...as Does Cummings.... Taking De La Rocha +375 as well..assuming too much IMO and -450 is too much for Adams....De La Rocha not going away easy......IF adams comes in well trained after DWTNCS the -450 MAY be warranted but not in my opinion....Adams thinking he casually pass up names like Stipe, Ngannou, .....I think if he wins here, his next fight should be
Tai Tuivasa...that would put him on the map if he won....and be a true test of skills.....he'll JDS.....even...

[PaperTrail07]

GL on Saturday everyone

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA Prelim Write ups -





205 lbs.: Adam Milstead vs. Mike Rodriguez
Adam Milstead (8-2) spent his first two UFC bouts as a Heavyweight, knocking out Chris de la Rocha and suffering a gnarly knee injury against Curtis Blaydes. Though the latter loss was overturned because Blaydes tested positive for marijuana, Milstead returned one year later as a Light Heavyweight, fighting unbeaten prospect Jordan Johnson to narrow split decision loss.
All eight of his professional wins have come by stoppage within two rounds.
Mike Rodriguez (9-3) scored one of the wildest “Contender Series” knockouts yet with a flying knee finish of Jamelle Jones, earning both a contract and his seventh first-round knockout. His takedown defense failed him in his UFC debut, however, allowing Devin Clark to bring him to the mat seven times and secure the decision.
“Slo-Mike” will have a seven-inch reach advantage on fight night.
After the Clark fight, it’s up in the air as to whether Rodriguez is a true prospect or just an entertaining striker who needs opponents to oblige him with a stand up battle. Luckily, Milstead is one of those opponents, an aggressive and hard-nosed brawler who’s happy to trade leather.
Rodriguez’s length will be key, allowing him to potshot from well outside Milstead’s range. If “The Prototype” gets too eager to close the gap, Rodriguez’s knees will be waiting for him. He pieces Milstead up on the outside before punishing an attempted rush with a fight-ending knee.
Prediction: Rodriguez via first-round knockout

185 lbs.: Trevor Smith vs. Zak Cummings
Trevor Smith (15-8) has gone 5-5 since making the move from Strikeforce to UFC in 2014, beating veterans like Dan Miller and Chris Camozzi along the way. In his most recent effort, he took on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” winner Elias Theodorou in Liverpool, dropping a decision to “The Spartan.”
“Hot Sauce” is three inches taller than Zak Cummings (21-6) at 6’0.”
Despite losing to Dylan Andrews on TUF 17, Cummings found a place for himself in UFC’s Welterweight division, winning six of his first eight bouts in the Octagon. This past May, he welcomed Brazilian former Lightweight Michel Prazeres to the 170-pound ranks, losing a close decision to “Trator.”
This will be his first Middleweight appearance since that TUF season in 2012.
Frankly, this is giving me a bit of deja vu, as it’s essentially the Prazeres-Cummings fight shifted one weight class upward. Cummings is the stronger submission artist, but he’s used to being the bigger man in the cage, and though Smith is slow and shopworn, he can still grind with the best of them.
There is, however, a world of difference between Cummings and the likes of Miller and Camozzi. And Cummings has both a dangerous front choke game and solid punching power to which to frustrate Smith’s attempts at getting his wrestling going. So long as Cummings stays busy with his hands and doesn’t settle for getting pressed against the cage for long periods of time, he should rack up enough damage and threaten enough submissions to get the decision.
Prediction: Cummings via unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Chris de la Rocha (5-2) vs. Juan Adams (4-0)
Chris de la Rocha (5-2) had what could charitably be called a rough start to his Octagon career, suffering (technical) knockout losses to Daniel Omielanczuk and Adam Milstead. He returned to the cage two years later — and 18 pounds heavier — against Rashad Coulter, surviving “Daywalker’s” early offense to pound him out in the second round.
He has knocked out three opponents and submitted another two, all within two rounds.
Juan Adams (4-0) went undefeated (four finishes) as an amateur before making his professional MMA debut in 2017. Thirteen months later, “The Kraken” appeared on “Contender Series,” brutalizing Shawn Teed with ground-and-pound to earn a contract.
All four of his professional wins have come by first-round technical knockout.
Adams is definitely a raw product, having had his first amateur fight just two years ago, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. He’s absolutely colossal, cutting weight to make the Heavyweight limit, and has some gnarly ground-and-pound that uses his 81-inch reach to its fullest. He has a very beatable opponent in front of him in de la Rocha, who is just an average all-rounder, but it could come down to his cardio.
I figured de la Rocha to be chinny after the 48-second loss to Omielanczuk, but he weathered a ton of punishment in his next two fights. And if Adams can’t keep that giant frame of his in fighting shape for more than five minutes, he’s in for trouble. All that said, his size and power ought to carry him to victory as he denies his opponent’s takedowns, bullies his way into top position, and drops bombs for the finish late in the first.
Prediction: Adams via first-round technical knockout


170 lbs.: Zak Ottow vs. Dwight Grant
Zak Ottow (16-6) — who made his UFC debut in 2016 with an upset decision over Josh Burkman — has alternated wins and losses in the Octagon and currently sits even (3-3) in the promotion. His last fight saw him drop Sage Northcutt in the opening seconds, but ultimately succumb to hammerfists in the second round.
He steps in for Erik Koch on two weeks’ notice.
American Kickboxing Academy’s Dwight Grant (8-1) has not tasted defeat since his second professional fight, knocking out five of his next seven opponents. After missing all of 2017, he appeared on “Contender Series” in June, where he flattened Tyler Hill in violent fashion to take home a contract.
He is two inches taller than Ottow and will have a four-inch reach advantage.
This is a bit of an obscure reference, but Grant reminds me of Valmir Lazaro, a Nova Uniao representative I was quite high on before he went 1-2 in the Octagon. He’s a haymaker-slinging puncher who relies mostly on his overhand right and counter left hook, neither of which are particularly crisp. He has the power to make it work, though, and Ottow has had very little time to prepare.
Koch’s technical kickboxing would have given Grant issues, but Ottow isn’t durable or savvy enough on the feet to exploit Grant’s limitations without getting chinned. Grant clips him with one of those giant swings and pounds him out quick.
Prediction: Grant via first-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Jessica Rose-Clark vs. Andrea Lee (9-2)
Jessica Rose-Clark (9-5) didn’t let being the lesser name stop her from winning her first two UFC bouts, taking decisions over Bec Rawlings and Paige VanZant. Her streak would end there, as Jessica Eye defeated her in Singapore this past June.
“Jessy Jess” has knocked out and submitted two opponents apiece.
Andrea Lee (9-2) — former LFA Flyweight champion — was originally supposed to debut against Kalindra Faria in Oct. 2017, but had to withdraw because of the required length of the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) testing window. “KGB” wound up entering the Octagon in May with a “Fight of the Night”-winning decision over Veronica Macedo.
Three of her four submissions wins have come by armbar.
The women’s Flyweight division may be, well, underwhelming at the moment, but this is a damn good fight. Both women are aggressive and well-rounded, and should offer plenty of entertainment wherever the fight goes.
The crux of this match up is Rose-Clark’s wrestling. Lee is the sharper, more powerful striker, but has historically struggled with defending takedowns, even from mediocre takedown artists. That consideration isn’t enough to offset Lee’s stand up superiority, though, so expect “KGB” to do enough damage to overcome the time she spends on her back.
Prediction: Lee via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Bobby Green vs. Drakkar Klose
“King” Bobby Green (24-8-1) had a less-than royal time recently, going winless (0-3-1) over three years after a career-best victory over Josh Thomson. After those struggles and a variety of injuries, he finally got back in the win column with an entertaining unanimous decision over Erik Koch.
Green has since pulled out of two more fights with injuries, increasing his UFC total to six.
Drakkar Klose (9-1-1) followed a decent UFC debut against Devin Powell with a surprising upset of Marc Diakiese, only to run afoul of the surging David Teymur that December. He bounced back in July with an upset of Lando Vannata at UFC 226, out-striking the striker to win all three rounds on all three scorecards.
Four of his nine wins have come via (technical) knockout, though none since 2015.
Teymur showed that the linear Klose can be frustrated with good defense, patience and lateral movement, but I’m not convinced Green can pull that off. Even putting aside his never-ending string of injuries, Green is too hittable to win close-range exchanges and Klose’s low kicks will prevent the boxing-heavy “King” from finding success on the outside.
Though I’m glad to see Green actually, you know, fighting instead of just sitting on the outside and shaking his head every time someone punches him, he’s going to have issues with Klose’s pressure, leg attack, and takedowns. Klose’s versatility wins him a fun, back-and-forth battle.
Prediction: Klose via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Jared Gordon vs. Joaquim Silva
Jared Gordon (14-2) picked up his fourth consecutive victory in his UFC debut, pounding out Michel Quinones, before spoiling Hacran Dias’ UFC Lightweight debut four months later. Then came Carlos Diego Ferreira, who came back from a two-year hiatus to knock Gordon out in under tow minutes.
“Flash” is one inch taller than “Netto BJJ,” but will give up an inch of reach.
Joaquim Silva (10-1) reached the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 4 before tapping to eventual winner Glaido França, but started his Octagon career on the right foot with a split decision over fellow semifinalist Nazareno Malegarie. Two more victories followed, after which he lost a narrow decision to Vinc Pichel in Charlotte.
Despite the nickname, he has knocked out five opponents and submitted three.
“Netto BJJ” is kind of a misnomer — the Brazilian is quite capable on his feet and generally happy to keep it there, having attempted just one takedown in his four UFC appearances. It’s not quite enough to offset the wrestling disparity. Reza Madadi, a one-note wrestler stepping up on short notice, took him down five times, and the threat of Gordon’s takedowns will even the striking.
This will be similar to the Dias fight, in which the more capable submission artist is ground down by a relentless wrestler who dictates where and how the fight proceeds in all three rounds. Assuming no ill effects from the Ferreira fight, Gordon takes this with pressure striking and regular takedowns.
Prediction: Gordon via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jack Hermansson
Gerald Meerschaert (28-9) opened his Octagon career with a pair of first-round submissions, extending his finishing streak to seven. Though Thiago Santos beat him down at UFC 213, he showed his grit with comeback finishes of Eric Spicely and Oskar Piechota, the former of which earned him “Performance of the Night.”
“GM3” owns 20 wins by submission and another three via (technical) knockout.
Jack Hermansson (17-4) rebounded from his submission loss to Cezar Ferreira with consecutive ground-and-pound stoppages of Alex Nicholson and Bradley Scott, but soon ran into the aforementioned Santos and suffered the first (T)KO loss of his career. His next time out, he defied visible agony to improbably pound out Thales Leites midway through the third round.
“The Joker’s” 14 stoppage wins include 11 (technical) knockouts.
I’ve picked Meerschaert’s last three fights wrong, so I’m not exactly the authority on what he can and can’t do. Just keep that in mind.
Meerschaert’s last two wins both saw him survive early trouble to get the win, but Hermansson doesn’t slow down. In other words, if “GM3” finds himself in an early hole, he’s not getting out of it. Hermansson figures to be the better striker, and though Meerschaert is dangerous on the ground, his wrestling is inconsistent. If it does wind up going to the mat, it will be on Hermansson’s terms, and the Swede has some nasty ground-and-pound.
Meerschaert’s too tough to get finished by accumulated strikes, but Hermansson’s ground assault will seize the momentum early and never let go.
Prediction: Hermansson via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Dan Ige vs. Jordan Griffin
Dan Ige (9-2) — representing Xtreme Couture — used his relentless wrestling to grind down and ultimately submit Luis Gomez on the first season of “Contender Series.” Though he fell to fellow alumnus Julio Arce in his UFC debut, he came back strong with a 50-second technical knockout of Mike Santiago in June.
“Dynamite” is three inches shorter than Griffin and will give up 3.5 inches of reach.
Roufusport’s Jordan Griffin (17-5) had won eight of his previous nine fights when he entered the Contender Series against Maurice Mitchell. After eating a hard right hand, he dropped Mitchell in return and choked him out late in the second round.
His last eight wins have come by stoppage, five by submission and three via (technical) knockout.
This is a clash between pragmatism and dynamism. Ige is a gritty wrestler, Griffin an athletic southpaw bruiser with a bad habit of sprinting after opponents with wide-armed swings. The oddsmakers have this as the closest fight on the undercard and I’m inclined to agree.
At the same time, they also have Ige as the favorite, and I am again inclined to agree. Griffin is the lesser grappler, and though he packs more power than Ige, he’s also overly aggressive with his linear offense and looks to be overly hittable. Ige exploits Griffin’s charges with well-timed takedowns and consistent, effective top control before ultimately choking out “The Native Psycho” late.
Prediction: Ige by third-round submission


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 182-82-1

[praisebuddha]

Do you subscribe to the VIP subscription to this website and if so do you feel it's worth it?

Cheers!

27 people have plays on Mike Rodriguez, vs 3 for Adam Milstead on betmma.tips

Action all on the underdog Rodriguez, line is down to -145 at one shop, The Greek holding on at -170 ....

What am I missing here???

Milstead said within past few days he'll retire if he loses this fight, which I don't particularly care to here from a guy I am backing, but maybe I am thinking too far into that comment.

[JIBBBY]

Be good without covington, he's a bitch

Agreed lol...

[Sanity Check]

Rob Font, whats the deal? i just watched some tape, very not impressive against assuncao. I mean, he doesnt seem to have a big arsenal of strikes. If someone figures him out a bit, like in the tomas silva fight and also in the assuncao fight, he just stops striking. I dont like that. I like people whos good at adapting, and changing things up. He did smoke Silva though, se would never see how a fight with a silva with a good chin would have looked like. The assuncao fight is just a disaster when it comes to fighter iq. So yeah. But maybe you guys see something i dont see.

Let me know.

And, are you betting all the fights?

Sergio Pettis suffers from Lyoto Machida syndrome. He's been extremely passive in his fights, thrown light volume and a more active striker like Rob Font should be able to outwork him if nothing else. Font also has a height and reach advantage. On paper, it looks like Font should be the favorite here. Pettis has been talking about how he balloons up to 170 lbs in-between fights, which seems like a decent amount of weight to cut for a guy who fights @ 125. I remember John Dodson weighing in the 160's in between fights, its possible this is somewhat normal for flyweights.

I don't know what was up with Font in the Assuncao fight, he didn't show up for that one. Didn't look like himself in there. Of course, Assuncao is once of the best guys in the division and has a very high fight IQ all around. Anyone in the division would have trouble with him.

I might skip this card. I've been skipping a lot of recent events & dropping 10 to 40 or more units only on plays I thought were locks. Last UFC event my only real plays were Valentina Shevchenko and Diego Ferreira. Then I got lucky with light action on Jessica Eye, Brad Katona, Gilbert Burns and Nina Ansaroff.

I bet 90% of everything I have on Valentina ML thinking she would have an advantage in the striking and would be able to take Joanna down. Then some big plays on Ferreira who had me worried in the early going. Maybe sometimes, that's all you need.

27 people have plays on Mike Rodriguez, vs 3 for Adam Milstead on betmma.tips

Action all on the underdog Rodriguez, line is down to -145 at one shop, The Greek holding on at -170 ....

What am I missing here???

Milstead said within past few days he'll retire if he loses this fight, which I don't particularly care to here from a guy I am backing, but maybe I am thinking too far into that comment.

Rodriguez lost his last fight on his wrestling/grappling. He trains out of Joe Lauzon's gym it makes sense for him to struggle there, its something Joe Lauzon has also struggled with.

Most are expecting them to bang it out or for Milstead not to show the wrestling Devin Clark did, which makes sense for Rodriguez to be the fave for those who envision the fight going that way.

Milstead hasn't won a fight in 2 years, some thought he won that last fight with Jordan Johnson and got robbed by judges. He must be getting fustrated & thinking about quitting.

I have no strong feelings either way. Better to go light or skip these 50/50 fights and focus more on plays that resemble locks imo.

[Sanity Check]

Do you subscribe to the VIP subscription to this website and if so do you feel it's worth it?

Cheers!

There's a red button to SBR's point sportsbook in the upper right.

You can make bets there using your current points & redeem points for prizes under their upgrade system.

If they cancel your winning bets (like they did to me) I would recommend not upgrading.

I think I have more than 1,000 points in free bonus bets I don't even bother using cuz what's the point if they nixx your wins.

[KingHawkins]

Do you subscribe to the VIP subscription to this website and if so do you feel it's worth it?

Cheers!

No, I do not subscribe to their VIP section / content. Honestly, I never really looked at what they offered until you just asked. I'm not quite sure I would get much value from the tools offered there. Some of what they have written there has me interested, but in general, I just don't pay for picks.

[KingHawkins]

Thanks for the reply on the Milstead fight, Sanity Check, I do appreciate that.
Let me know of any lock plays you see that you like, this event or in the future, I am always interested to hear those and if it looks good to me I will look to tail. Thanks, take care.

[PaperTrail07]

Sergio loses if he is scared of getting taken down.....he you think he can keep it on the feet, he is a live puppy

[PaperTrail07]

Anyone with thoughts on the De La/Adams Fight? am I alone on this one.......

[Sanity Check]

Anyone with thoughts on the De La/Adams Fight? am I alone on this one.......

Its a heavyweight fight where one guy is 4-0 with little experience against questionable competition and the other guy is not much more experienced at 5-2 having faced higher level competition.

Heavyweight isn't a division known for the more skilled fighter consistently winning. Landing the first big punch or having the more durable chin can decide everything and it often does to the fustration of gamblers who often see fighters like Alexander Volkov outpoint Derrick Lewis for 3 rounds only to be KTFO when they slow down a little in the 3rd.

Chris De La Rocha seemed to have a lot of fight in him for a 39 year old when he fought Rashad Coulter earlier this year. I don't know if I would be so quick to count him out.

Good luck with whatever your pick is.

[Sanity Check]

Sergio loses if he is scared of getting taken down.....he you think he can keep it on the feet, he is a live puppy

He might be a live dog but it is hard to take him and his brother seriously when you know neither of them are 100% committed to fighting.

A flyweight like Sergio weighing 170+ lbs inbetween fights might be common for some fighters, it also could be very unprofessional. Both Pettis brothers are talented athletes but can be their own worst enemies when it comes to lack of motivation and finding excuses to cut corners on training.

Sergio looked very good when he fought Brandon Moreno. Probably the best I've ever seen him look in a fight.

I think the loss to Henry Cejudo demoralised Sergio a little and Sergio lost motivation after that. But hey who can say maybe he can turn this into a comeback fight?

[frankieunits2685]

Who do you guys have???

Al or Lee??

[Hugo de Naranja]

Who do you guys have???

Al or Lee??

Lee

[robert_wrath]

AL Iaquinta is currently MoneyLine (+290) on 5Dimes. Personally think this a supreme Value Play.

[Hugo de Naranja]

AL Iaquinta is currently MoneyLine (+290) on 5Dimes. Personally think this a supreme Value Play.

Tell me more

[robert_wrath]

Tell me more

Let's kick it:

1. AL Iaquinta's last performance against Khabib showed true grit going the distance to a 5 round decision. Despite the landslide loss, AL accepted the match with less than 1 week's notice.

2. Al's Fight Base - Wrestling. His take down defense IMO is just shy of tier 1. Again with Khabib, tremendous display of his capabilities against the shoot.

3. Power Fist Striker against Kevin Lee's Glass Jaw/Chin. Their last match exploits this fact.

Kevin Lee's sure shot at victory here - Rear Naked Choke. AL Iaquinta has 4 loses, 2 by Chokes.

Do the math here. Again, this is just my humble opinion of this match. I would like to hear your thoughts.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Let's kick it:

1. AL Iaquinta's last performance against Khabib showed true grit going the distance to a 5 round decision. Despite the landslide loss, AL accepted the match with less than 1 week's notice.

2. Al's Fight Base - Wrestling. His take down defense IMO is just shy of tier 1. Again with Khabib, tremendous display of his capabilities against the shoot.

3. Power Fist Striker against Kevin Lee's Glass Jaw/Chin. Their last match exploits this fact.

Kevin Lee's sure shot at victory here - Rear Naked Choke. AL Iaquinta has 4 loses, 2 by Chokes.

Do the math here. Again, this is just my humble opinion of this match. I would like to hear your thoughts.

Yeah I think these are all solid points. Al is not easy to take down and I was pretty impressed with his willingness to give Khabib a tough fight on such short notice. I actually got so see that one live which was cool. I do think Iaquinta KO/TKO is definitely a good value bet and to me that is by far his most likely path to victory.

As far as Lee goes, I think he can win by KO/TKO, Submission, or Decision. When Khabib was able to get Al down, he didn't have too much trouble controlling him and winning those rounds. I think Lee is more dangerous on the mat with both GnP and Submissions so if he gets Al down I think he'll have a better chance of finishing. Even in their first fight Lee had a lot of success grappling in R2. Of the two of them he has certainly been more active and has likely improved more since then.

If you do like Al here, I'd say his KO/TKO prop at (+500) might be preferable to the ML at (+290). Five rounds is a significant amount of time to catch Lee with a big shot. I'm personally sticking with Lee since I think his offensive wrestling and ferocity on the ground will get him a Technical Submission win but I'm interested to see how the striking exchanges play out if Al can defend TDs.

Cheers!

[Sanity Check]

AL accepted the match with less than 1 week's notice.

Good breakdown.

Al didn't get off the couch to take the fight with Khabib on 1 week notice though.

He was training for a scheduled fight with Paul Felder on the same card.

[robert_wrath]

Good breakdown.

Al didn't get off the couch to take the fight with Khabib on 1 week notice though.

He was training for a scheduled fight with Paul Felder on the same card.

Think again. Physical conditioning won't change preparation for a match. However, Tactical Training for a completely different opponent alters the coaches/trainers approach. It changes the perspective of what to expect from an opponent's fighting style:
- Wrestler
- Stand Up Striker
- Ground & Pound Striker
- Jujitsu
- all the others I fuckin missed LOL

[Sanity Check]

Think again. Physical conditioning won't change preparation for a match. However, Tactical Training for a completely different opponent alters the coaches/trainers approach. It changes the perspective of what to expect from an opponent's fighting style:
- Wrestler
- Stand Up Striker
- Ground & Pound Striker
- Jujitsu
- all the others I fuckin missed LOL

.

From experience, its more stressful on the guy with the big fight lined up. Its more stressful on Khabib than it is on Al Iaquinta cuz Khabib has a lot more to lose.

Examples from past history.

--Daniel Cormier fighting Anderson Silva on late notice cuz Jon Jones pulled out. No pressure on Anderson Silva there all the pressure was on DC to perform. (DC fought below his ability there.)

--TJ Dillashaw fighting Joe Soto on late notice after I think Renan Barao pulled out. No pressure on Joe Soto there either, all the pressure was on the champ. (TJ fought below his normal shtick.)

--Tony Ferguson fighting Lando Vannata on short notice after Khabib was it, pulled out. (Ferguson, yep, fought below his normal level.)

I wish my memory was better, there are other examples. Usually when someone has a big fight lined up and their opponent pulls out its very stressful for them. Then they go on to fight their late notice replacement below their ability.

But make no mistake, Khabib didn't fight as well as he normally does against Raging Al imo.

[robert_wrath]

.

From experience, its more stressful on the guy with the big fight lined up. Its more stressful on Khabib than it is on Al Iaquinta cuz Khabib has a lot more to lose.

Examples from past history.

--Daniel Cormier fighting Anderson Silva on late notice cuz Jon Jones pulled out. No pressure on Anderson Silva there all the pressure was on DC to perform. (DC fought below his ability there.)

--TJ Dillashaw fighting Joe Soto on late notice after I think Renan Barao pulled out. No pressure on Joe Soto there either, all the pressure was on the champ. (TJ fought below his normal shtick.)

--Tony Ferguson fighting Lando Vannata on short notice after Khabib was it, pulled out. (Ferguson, yep, fought below his normal level.)

I wish my memory was better, there are other examples. Usually when someone has a big fight lined up and their opponent pulls out its very stressful for them. Then they go on to fight their late notice replacement below their ability.

But make no mistake, Khabib didn't fight as well as he normally does against Raging Al imo.

You further proved my point with more facts. Let's also throw in another X Factor - Catch Weight.

[Sanity Check]

You further proved my point with more facts. Let's also throw in another X Factor - Catch Weight.

Bullshit.

What I said might have gone over your head, but maybe you'll get it someday~

[robert_wrath]

You just pointed out 3 examples of how a fighter's perspective changes due to a last second change in opponent. The mentality changes, in most cases, for the worst.