[bjpenn85]

Sergio Pettis suffers from Lyoto Machida syndrome. He's been extremely passive in his fights, thrown light volume and a more active striker like Rob Font should be able to outwork him if nothing else. Font also has a height and reach advantage. On paper, it looks like Font should be the favorite here. Pettis has been talking about how he balloons up to 170 lbs in-between fights, which seems like a decent amount of weight to cut for a guy who fights @ 125. I remember John Dodson weighing in the 160's in between fights, its possible this is somewhat normal for flyweights.

I don't know what was up with Font in the Assuncao fight, he didn't show up for that one. Didn't look like himself in there. Of course, Assuncao is once of the best guys in the division and has a very high fight IQ all around. Anyone in the division would have trouble with him.

I might skip this card. I've been skipping a lot of recent events & dropping 10 to 40 or more units only on plays I thought were locks. Last UFC event my only real plays were Valentina Shevchenko and Diego Ferreira. Then I got lucky with light action on Jessica Eye, Brad Katona, Gilbert Burns and Nina Ansaroff.

I bet 90% of everything I have on Valentina ML thinking she would have an advantage in the striking and would be able to take Joanna down. Then some big plays on Ferreira who had me worried in the early going. Maybe sometimes, that's all you need.




Rodriguez lost his last fight on his wrestling/grappling. He trains out of Joe Lauzon's gym it makes sense for him to struggle there, its something Joe Lauzon has also struggled with.

Most are expecting them to bang it out or for Milstead not to show the wrestling Devin Clark did, which makes sense for Rodriguez to be the fave for those who envision the fight going that way.

Milstead hasn't won a fight in 2 years, some thought he won that last fight with Jordan Johnson and got robbed by judges. He must be getting fustrated & thinking about quitting.

I have no strong feelings either way. Better to go light or skip these 50/50 fights and focus more on plays that resemble locks imo.

I agree, everyone struggles with assuncao, so its hard to assess, i do think this is something that has shown up twice, the inability to adjust, but im just not sure, as i only have 1 fight against assuncao and maybe 2 min of inactivity another fight where he then smashed silva just after.

Im looking more into Drakkar Klose and like what i see. Im just not happy with the value. It may correct. He should win. Bobby green at times had a lot of problems with Lando, while Drakkar didnt.

I just dont know if this is enough to say that there is a sizable discrepancy or if just is a good performance of Klose.

He do seems to evolve from fight to fight, while bobby green is still the same fighter and, from my perspective displays marginally small signs of decline fight by fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Sanity-Here was my thoughts on it....

Oliveira seems like he should get the W...as Does Cummings.... Taking De La Rocha +375 as well..assuming too much IMO and -450 is too much for Adams....De La Rocha not going away easy......IF adams comes in well trained after DWTNCS the -450 MAY be warranted but not in my opinion....Adams thinking he casually pass up names like Stipe, Ngannou, .....I think if he wins here, his next fight should be
Tai Tuivasa...that would put him on the map if he won....and be a true test of skills.....he'll JDS.....even...

[PaperTrail07]

You could be right---after cejudo he has been a deer in headlights.....was lucky to get the split in bene fight...then formiga dominated him as well....this COULD be a bounce back spot....he needs a W

He might be a live dog but it is hard to take him and his brother seriously when you know neither of them are 100% committed to fighting.

A flyweight like Sergio weighing 170+ lbs inbetween fights might be common for some fighters, it also could be very unprofessional. Both Pettis brothers are talented athletes but can be their own worst enemies when it comes to lack of motivation and finding excuses to cut corners on training.

Sergio looked very good when he fought Brandon Moreno. Probably the best I've ever seen him look in a fight.

I think the loss to Henry Cejudo demoralised Sergio a little and Sergio lost motivation after that. But hey who can say maybe he can turn this into a comeback fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

You could be right---after cejudo he has been a deer in headlights.....was lucky to get the split in bene fight...then formiga dominated him as well....this COULD be a bounce back spot....he needs a W

Or he could get KTFO’d

[PaperTrail07]

JUST as easily.....leaning he does NOT get KO'd though....-You all over your boy Font Hugo? Seems like only the tough guys beat Font.....Serg is not on that level....

Or he could get KTFO’d

[firekillex]

Kevin Lee by mauling

[frankieunits2685]

Kevin Lee by mauling

trying to figure out if i should lay that juicy ML on Lee, or parlay it

[firekillex]

trying to figure out if i should lay that juicy ML on Lee, or parlay it

I would parlay it imo
Don’t love betting straight money lines over -250

I’ll probably play Lee decision or maybe late finish and sprinkle him in some parlays

[praisebuddha]

Does anyone else feel that Rodriguez should be favored over Milstead? Where is Milstead better? Cardio?

[bjpenn85]

Man, Dan hooker is fun. Seems like a smart fighter, very precise. Not very athletic, but have good timing, and is calm. Can he finish Barboza? One of the most exciting fights on the card if you ask me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

JUST as easily.....leaning he does NOT get KO'd though....-You all over your boy Font Hugo? Seems like only the tough guys beat Font.....Serg is not on that level....

Yessir. Big power advantage, better offensive wrestling, underrated Front Headlock series, major size advantage, technical boxing etc

[PaperTrail07]

assumed that much....on board

Yessir. Big power advantage, better offensive wrestling, underrated Front Headlock series, major size advantage, technical boxing etc

[praisebuddha]

What do you see in Milstead? After watching both I felt as though Rod should be the fav. Huge reach advantage, younger, Milstead still has a full-time job, ha.

27 people have plays on Mike Rodriguez, vs 3 for Adam Milstead on betmma.tips

Action all on the underdog Rodriguez, line is down to -145 at one shop, The Greek holding on at -170 ....

What am I missing here???

Milstead said within past few days he'll retire if he loses this fight, which I don't particularly care to here from a guy I am backing, but maybe I am thinking too far into that comment.

[LBfightlife]

Good insights sanity check.. although seems like you have a little chip on your shoulder for some reason? Been watching a lot of ..ahem..news lately?

As for the avatar photo, two deranged clowns go together well if thats what you're going for.

Trying to see Hugo's picks but piecing it together from the earlier pages. Got a summary coming Hugo? Any final thoughts from Jibbz? Waiting with bated breath

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good insights sanity check.. although seems like you have a little chip on your shoulder for some reason? Been watching a lot of ..ahem..news lately?

As for the avatar photo, two deranged clowns go together well if thats what you're going for.

Trying to see Hugo's picks but piecing it together from the earlier pages. Got a summary coming Hugo? Any final thoughts from Jibbz? Waiting with bated breath

I’ll post a full write up of picks and bets tomorrow afternoon. Really like Font ML/ITD and Hooker SNA/ITD.

[praisebuddha]

Todays faceoffs! Does anyone else watch these before locking in bets?

https://youtu.be/-qiKkwDP1UY

[frankieunits2685]

Going to find a college hoops game today to parlay the Lee ML with. I can probably get it down to -150

[praisebuddha]

Is Silva just going to Hulk Smash Gordon? Does anyone know why Silva hasn't stayed more active? Saw that he had an injust July 16' but can't find anyting besides that.

[kcchiefs]

Looks like Jessica Rose Clark is out due to weight issue.

[RussianMike]

As a bettor, gotta absolutely love this fookin card. Two straight up gritty live dogs of over +250 that can very easily both cash. The kicker being each underdog has already beaten the favs. Kevin Lee, thankfully as overpriced as ever, because UFC remains the easiest sport to swing the public with manufactured hype. And I don't think I have ever put money down on Jim Miller in my entire life and decided after the outcome that it was a bad bet. Not once, not even on the fights he's lost. That guy remains underrated and gritty as a set of titties. Always live. Not too sure Oliveira is any better than he was when he lost to Miller. Same skill-set, he wasn't that raw back then.
I expect both fighters gonna eat, and I will be right there with them. Free money, son.

[RussianMike]

Feel tempted to play it like this.

Kevin Lee > Al Iaquinta
Edson Barboza > Dan Hooker
Rob Font > Sergio Pettis
Jim Miller < Charles Oliveira
Zak Ottow < Dwight Grant
Bobby Green < Drakkar Klose
Jared Gordon < Joaquim Silva
Gerald Meerschaert < Jack Hermansson
Dan Ige > Jordan Griffin
Jessica-Rose Clark > Andrea Lee
Adam Milstead > Mike Rodriguez
Trevor Smith < Zak Cummings
Chris de la Rocha > Juan Adams

.

I have to find ways to make money other than gambling.

Something more profitable.

Yeah, you probably do if you think for one minute there is a penny of value in taking Kevin Lee at anywhere near -300. LOL, that's absolutely retarded, even if it wins. Laughing just thinking about it.

[Sanity Check]

Yeah, you probably do if you think for one minute there is a penny of value in taking Kevin Lee at anywhere near -300. LOL, that's absolutely retarded, even if it wins. Laughing just thinking about it.

.

Go back to *Home Shopping Network*.

You're in the wrong game if you think its about shopping for deals like those sorry souls sleeping in front of target the night before black friday.

Go play bingo or do something more your speed.

"Value" plays are for suckas.

[Sanity Check]

Good insights sanity check.. although seems like you have a little chip on your shoulder for some reason? Been watching a lot of ..ahem..news lately?

I saw people saying Hugo is "solid" and felt like I was walking down the street witnessing RussianMike digging through trashcans for half eaten steaks remarking upon how "lucky" they were to sample "high society cuisine".



Like any good american, I felt tempted to raise the lvl of discussion here, to treat the sorry souls that post here to something they normally wouldn't experience or be privileged enough to encounter in the hope it would encourage people to raise their games a little. Charity work is truly a never ending struggle.

The end~

[RussianMike]

.

Go back to *Home Shopping Network*.

You're in the wrong game if you think its about shopping for deals like those sorry souls sleeping in front of target the night before black friday.

Go play bingo or do something more your speed.

"Value" plays are for suckas.

Yeah, maybe. But laying anything over even money, let alone -300 on Kevin Lee in that fight has "plebian UFC fan" written all over it. Guys start making waves on twitter and when they get a mic in their face, and all of a sudden I find I ain't gotta go dumpster divin no more. We eatin Sizzler, baby. Off UFC suckers like you, just buying the hype. Kevin Lee..... LOL. Does he really look that much better than 2014 Kevin Lee? Has he beaten anybody? Has he reconstructed the glassiest of jaws? Or bought some speed on Groupon? Slowest striker in the UFC. Athletic, muscular speciman that really can't even keep anybody down long enough to even initiate much ground and pound. Doesn't really have power in his hands, even though he may look like he does to the novice willing to lay -300. About all that's different about him is that he bounces around a little bit more and learned not to creep with his chin tucked in like a slow dummy. AI gonna submit submit that that dude faster than you can say Make America Gape Again.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Kevin Lee by mauling

I fail to see how Lee is just going to run through Iaquinta.

Everyone sleeping on Al again, no respect..

I used to not like Iaquinta at all but he has grown on me quite a bit...I actually enjoy the fact that he is real and not putting on an act like many of these other guys.

[bjpenn85]

I saw people saying Hugo is "solid" and felt like I was walking down the street witnessing RussianMike digging through trashcans for half eaten steaks remarking upon how "lucky" they were to sample "high society cuisine".



Like any good american, I felt tempted to raise the lvl of discussion here, to treat the sorry souls that post here to something they normally wouldn't experience or be privileged enough to encounter in the hope it would encourage people to raise their games a little. Charity work is truly a never ending struggle.

The end~

Ship on your shoulder or not, mans got a sense of humour

[Teem]

Think I'm backing:

Ige
Font
Cummings
Rodriguez

[frankieunits2685]

I definitely agree that there is no value whatsoever with taking Lee at -315 or whatever it’s at now. I parlayed Lee with Kansas which brought the odds down to just under -150, much better value IMO.

[RussianMike]

I definitely agree that there is no value whatsoever with taking Lee at -315 or whatever it’s at now. I parlayed Lee with Kansas which brought the odds down to just under -150, much better value IMO.

The point is that at -300 he's too overvalued to be a good bet. Parlaying it doesn't bring any value, man. You are still buying him at -300, just assuming more risk on the parlay. I get it, if you like him at -300. I just see the fight as an even money fight, if Lee so overvalued, then guess what AI is. Bingo.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

The point is that at -300 he's too overvalued to be a good bet. Parlaying it doesn't bring any value, man. You are still buying him at -300, just assuming more risk on the parlay. I get it, if you like him at -300. I just see the fight as an even money fight, if Lee so overvalued, then guess what AI is. Bingo.

agreed...I like Al to win this fight, Lee was crying between rounds last fight..Al knows this guy will crack when the chips are down.

[RussianMike]

Anybody here got any word on the street about what the story is with Jim Miller and his supposed Lyme disease? He either does or does not have that problem taken care of. Looked good last fight out, but has mentioned it before leading up to losses. Caint be fookin off my scrilla over some damn fruit disease.

[RussianMike]

agreed...I like Al to win this fight, Lee was crying between rounds last fight..Al knows this guy will crack when the chips are down.

It is relatively seldom in the UFC that opponents who have already met split fights in the UFC. Usually, one guy tends to hold the other guy's property papers..... At least until they meet again when they are in their 50s, apparently. Those stats alone make this an even money fight in my eyes. +265 simply means too many of Lee's fookin twitter followers have decided to road trip it to Vegas. It's not as stupid a line as Mayweather -250 or whatever it got down to vs McGregor, but it's enough to feed the beast. Yum yum....

On a side note, everything stated above also goes for Jim Miller vs Da Bronx.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

It is relatively seldom in the UFC that opponents who have already met split fights in the UFC. Usually, one guy tends to hold the other guy's property papers..... At least until they meet again when they are in their 50s, apparently. Those stats alone make this an even money fight in my eyes. +265 simply means too many of Lee's fookin twitter followers have decided to road trip it to Vegas. It's not as stupid a line as Mayweather -250 or whatever it got down to vs McGregor, but it's enough to feed the beast. Yum yum....

On a side note, everything stated above also goes for Jim Miller vs Da Bronx.

so Iaquinta goes the distance with Khabib and stuffs many of the takedowns, yet Lee is going to starch him inside the distance? I've got to see that to believe it. I know Lee has improved a lot since the last fight but so has Al. I really hope Al humbles the loudmouth again tonight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

so Iaquinta goes the distance with Khabib and stuffs many of the takedowns, yet Lee is going to starch him inside the distance? I've got to see that to believe it. I know Lee has improved a lot since the last fight but so has Al. I really hope Al humbles the loudmouth again tonight.

Yes. Lee is way more dangerous on the mat than Khabib with his GnP and Subs. Al could get a KO but I think that's his only way to win.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Yes. Lee is way more dangerous on the mat than Khabib with his GnP and Subs. Al could get a KO but I think that's his only way to win.

we shall see..