[TJcaliente]

Hey fellas, quick intro. happy to be here. Been a big MMA fan since early UFC years. Live in San Diego and often go to Tijuana and place bets. Ive enjoyed this site some months now and finally joined. Hope to chime in and bust some balls.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Hey fellas, quick intro. happy to be here. Been a big MMA fan since early UFC years. Live in San Diego and often go to Tijuana and place bets. Ive enjoyed this site some months now and finally joined. Hope to chime in and bust some balls.

I live in SD as well, welcome! Why on Earth would you cross the border every time you want to bet? It is much more convenient to bet online from the comfort of your own home.

[Shagdogy]

Did a quick cap of Markos/Ansaroff and without overthinking it, this seems like a 50/50 split decision fight where I may favor Markos slightly due to recent improvements in grappling control and her willingness to use it. Being as it’s very likely a decision and Markos is Canadian and fighting out of Tristar I think this line should be flipped. Getting Markos at plus money seems like a 1u play for value.

Resident WMMA expert Turbo got any thoughts? Anyone else?

[Shagdogy]

^ okay Markos is NOT fighting out of Tristar any longer (old info I had). But it looks like she has focused heavily on strength, wrestling, and grappling throughout this camp, which I think is a good sign for a decision win.

[RussianMike]

People will definitely bring up the Conor fight as well, as it was a KO loss for Aldo. Beating Aldo in a technical kickboxing match that goes the three round distance would still be a major accomplishment for any fighter imo.

That Conor fight pretty is irrelevant when capping. Dude got caught early is all. Only relevance might be that that is when you can maybe pinpoint Aldo chin beginning to let him down. Way I see it, these dudes are dinosaurs. If Stephens was gonna beat Aldo, he woulda done it by now. Not quick enough for Aldo, but does have power to put him to sleep.

[Sanity Check]

Did a quick cap of Markos/Ansaroff and without overthinking it, this seems like a 50/50 split decision fight where I may favor Markos slightly

Blasphemies uttered on this forum are unbelievable.

[slikec]

What makes you think it’s OAM?

For 1 i saw him in 1 of your parlays lol. Still who knows could be hedge that is why i am asking. Ok also if i remember correct you liked him in past also. Aynway why you think i am asking lol? If you wonder well you are doing great in MMA but are impossible to follow every fight so i cherry pick few you put more units on.

[UncleChael]

TJ was +185 in the first fight. Seems like some people are catching on.
Video: Start of round 2.
*Crowds chanting "F*** you TJ".
2 seconds later TJ drops Cody with the nasty head kick.

[Shagdogy]

Blasphemies uttered on this forum are unbelievable.

Explain

[TJcaliente]

Delete

[TJcaliente]

I live in SD as well, welcome! Why on Earth would you cross the border every time you want to bet? It is much more convenient to bet online from the comfort of your own home.

I like the atmosphere out there and the tacos are great. I know I need to start an online account specially since I can't cross the border every time there's bets to place.

[Hugo de Naranja]

For 1 i saw him in 1 of your parlays lol. Still who knows could be hedge that is why i am asking. Ok also if i remember correct you liked him in past also. Aynway why you think i am asking lol? If you wonder well you are doing great in MMA but are impossible to follow every fight so i cherry pick few you put more units on.

Haha nice. Yeah I really like OAM here.

[UncleChael]

Explain

Why bet on a fight that you think could end in a split, when you know its gonna be a walk in the park for TJ

[HurlSweatPants]

TJ was +185 in the first fight. Seems like some people are catching on.
Video: Start of round 2.
*Crowds chanting "F*** you TJ".
2 seconds later TJ drops Cody with the nasty head kick.

"You're worthless Dillashaw!" 2:13

That guy must have felt like a real chode after TJ put him out seconds later.

[Thrilla]

The event will be the second that the promotion has contested in Calgary, following UFC 149 in July 2012.

A lightweight rematch between former two-time Bellator Lightweight Champion and former UFC Lightweight Champion Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier has been tabbed as the event headliner. Their first bout at UFC 211 in May 2017 was ruled a no contest after Alvarez hit a downed Poirier with illegal knees in the second round.

A light heavyweight bout between Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Ion Cuțelaba was previously scheduled for UFC 217. However, Antigulov pulled out of the fight due to injury and the bout was scrapped. The matchup is expected to happen at this event.

[turbozed]

Did a quick cap of Markos/Ansaroff and without overthinking it, this seems like a 50/50 split decision fight where I may favor Markos slightly due to recent improvements in grappling control and her willingness to use it. Being as it’s very likely a decision and Markos is Canadian and fighting out of Tristar I think this line should be flipped. Getting Markos at plus money seems like a 1u play for value.

Resident WMMA expert Turbo got any thoughts? Anyone else?

I bet Ansaroff at even odds because I expected the money to come in on her. I think she is the superior striker and will win the standup battle unless it becomes a back and forth grappling and clinching battle as well. Canada angle is something to consider so I'll have to do tape to see who I go with eventually. Any sort of dog odds on WMMA where fighters are relatively evenly matched is attractive due to a lot more fights ending up as split decisions. The low physicality and parity in women's fights makes it really difficult to get a clear advantage unless one fighter really dominates in either the standup (somewhat rare) or on the ground (more common). Recent winners like Carmouche and Latourneau were evenly matched in striking with their opponents and could've lost a split decision easily if they just stuck with striking and didn't push their ground advantage. Instead they sealed the wins easily with TDs and top position. Moyle lost despite having a ground advantage because she waited until late in the fight to even attempt a TD, so gameplan and IQ are also more important in these situations.

[HurlSweatPants]

Haha nice. Yeah I really like OAM here.

What do you like about the matchup? There just isn't too much tape on Hernandez, he absolutely mauled Dariush.

OAM comes from a more respected camp and seems to have the ground/sub advantage, and the fact that he put Dunham away is still impressive.

[Demonata]

Antigulov pretty much a lock

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania prelims preview.. https://www.mmamania.com/2018/7/23/1...ch-calgary-mma

155 lbs.: John Makdessi vs. Ross Pearson
John Makdessi (15-6) — owner of one of UFC’s great spinning knockouts against Kyle Watson — wound up on the wrong end of another legendary spin (watch it) when Lando Vannata knocked him cold with a wheel kick in Dec. 2016. “The Bull” returned to action 12 months later and claimed a much-needed victory over Abel Trujillo in his native Canada.
Nine of his 15 wins have come by (technical) knockout stoppage.
Ross Pearson (20-14) — who has now spent nine years competing in the Octagon — went from upsetting The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” winner Chad Laprise to losing four straight, including a savage knockout loss to Dan Hooker. With his back against the wall, “The Real Deal” returned to the win column this past February by defeating gritty Japanese veteran Mizuto Hirota in Perth.
Pearson is 2-5 in his last seven bouts and has not won consecutive fights since 2013.
The key to this fight is distance. Pearson loves working in the pocket with his cross and left hook, while Makdessi prefers potshotting with his jab and lead leg. Stylistically, it looks to be well in ‘The Bull’s” favor, as his kicks make Pearson’s preferred inside slip too dangerous and Pearson doesn’t really have alternative means to get inside on rangier foes.
Both men have been inconsistent in recent years, only occasionally flashing greatness, but I have a bit more confidence in Makdessi’s ability to execute his ideal gameplan. Linear kicks keep Pearson at bay and allow Makdessi to rack up points on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Makdessi via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Following a decision over Cindy Dandois, her fifth UFC victory, Alexis Davis (19-7) made the drop to the newly-minted women’s Flyweight division in Dec. 2017 against former foe Liz Carmouche. It went down to the wire, but “Ally-Gator” ultimately made it 2-0 against Carmouche with a split decision in Fresno.
She has submitted eight professional opponents, all by rear naked choke or armbar.
Katlyn Chookagian (10-1), sporting wins over Andrea Lee (in the amateurs) and Sijara Eubanks, enjoyed a successful UFC debut by defeating Lauren Murphy. A split decision loss to Liz Carmouche set her back, but she rebounded with close decisions over Irene Aldana and Mara Romero Borella, the latter at Flyweight.
She stands three inches taller than Davis at 5’9.”
I’m trying to come up with an appropriate adjective for Chookagian and nothing sounds better to me than “frustrating.” She’s towering for the weight and can throw an unreasonable number of punches over the course of 15 minutes, but she seems to have no sense of range (the Borella fight was downright farcical).
I’ll be pulling for Davis, as you might imagine, but I think Chookagian can “ish” her way to another decision.
Davis has just never developed the wrestling she needs to bring that killer jiu-jitsu game to bear. According to Fightmetric, she’s been taken down 11 times in her last three fights and landed just one of her own. That suggests that this will be a striking battle, one in which she’ll struggle to match Chookagian’s volume. Chookagian sprawls on Davis’ shots and outworks her for a decision win.
Prediction: Chookagian via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Dustin Ortiz vs. Matheus Nicolau
Dustin Ortiz (18-7) has struggled to maintain consistency throughout his UFC career, but enters the Octagon this weekend having won three of his last four bouts. That run includes a 15-second knockout of Hector Sandoval and a decision over standout Alexandre Pantoja in Boston.
He is one inch taller than Nicolau, but will give up reach in both the arms and the legs.
Despite exiting the TUF: “Brazil” 4 in the semifinals, Matheus Nicolau (13-1-1) has excelled in UFC, going undefeated (3-0) and beating some notable names. After tapping castmate Bruno “Korea” in his debut, Nicolau won decisions over veterans John Moraga and Louis Smolka, though he had to deal with USADA issues between the latter two bouts.
He has knocked out and submitted four professional opponents apiece.
Ortiz will never be a title contender, but he’s proven himself capable of giving almost anyone in the decision a headache. He’s looked rock-solid in his last three wins and was beating Brandon Moreno before getting clipped with a head kick, showing off solid power, relentless offense, and top-notch scrambling.
Though Nicolau is a dangerous striker with quality submissions to back it up, I’m not sure he can keep Ortiz off of him or dissuade his endless takedown attempts. Unless he can catch Ortiz coming in, expect him to get outworked and ground to dust against the cage for fifteen minutes.
Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Nina Ansaroff
Randa Markos’ (8-5) Cinderella story on TUF 20 saw her defeat Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig before falling to Rose Namajunas in the semifinals. Since then, she’s alternated losses and wins, most recently defeating fellow wrestler Juliana Lima in January.
She stands one inch shorter than Nina Ansaroff (8-5) at 5’4”.
“The Strina” got off to a rough start in the Octagon, dropping decisions to Juliana Lima and Justine Kish in her first two appearances. She has since rebounded, however, choking out Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger and outstriking Angela Hill to establish herself as a top Strawweight.
Her six stoppage wins include four by (technical) knockout.
I still believe Ansaroff deserved the win against Justine Kish — and even though Markos is deceptively skilled and powerful — I see her taking the win here. As heavy as Markos’ right hand is, her striking game doesn’t extend far beyond that, and Ansaroff’s footwork ought to preclude Markos’ takedown attack.
That said, Markos has a habit of coming up big with the odds against her and Ansaroff has struggled off of her back. It’ll be close and I expect a bit of controversy, but “The Strina” should land enough strikes to offset Markos’ top control.
Prediction: Ansaroff via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Devin Powell vs. Alvaro Herrera
Devin Powell (8-3) put together a six-fight win streak, capped off with a successful appearance on Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” to earn a spot in UFC. He has yet to taste victory in the Octagon, however, dropping decisions to Drakkar Klose and Darrell Horcher.
He will give up one inch of reach to “Chango.”
Despite losing to Hector Aldana in the opening round of TUF: “Latin America” 2, Alvaro Herrera got the opportunity to join UFC itself, which he made the most of by flattening Vernon Ramos in 30 seconds. He has since suffered consecutive submission losses to Vicente Luque and Jordan Rinaldi, the latter of whom finished him with a von Flue choke in little more than two minutes.
He has never seen the judges as a professional, his victories and defeats all coming inside of two rounds.
Well, this is a roster-trimming fight if I’ve ever seen one. Neither of these two have looked UFC-worthy during their brief Octagon careers and they haven’t been particularly entertaining in defeat, either. That said, Powell did give Horcher a decent fight, while Herrera had nothing for Luque or Rinaldi.
Herrera is the younger of the two and is training at Jackson-Wink, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see some improvement on his end, but I’m just not sure there’s all that much potential in him to maximize. Powell catches a choke in transition.
Prediction: Powell via first-round submission

170 lbs.: Jordan Mein vs. Alex Morono
Following a comeback knockout loss to Thiago Alves, Jordan Mein (30-12) announced his retirement from the sport, only to return nearly two years later and suffer consecutive decision losses to Emil Meek and Belal Muhammad. “Young Guns” managed to steer out of his three-fight skid in Dec. 2017 with a decision over Erick Silva at UFC on FOX 26.
Sixteen of his 23 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout, including two in UFC.
Alex Morono (14-4) stormed out of the gate in his Octagon career with consecutive upsets of Kyle Noke and James Moontasri, only to suffer a later-overturned knockout loss to Niko Price and drop a split decision to Keita Nakamura. “The Great White” got back in track in February with a lovely guillotine of Josh Burkman in Austin.
He will give up an inch of height and reach to Mein.
Every Jordan Mein fight these days boils down to whether he’ll fight up to his capabilities. He’s a devastating boxer when he’s firing on all cylinders, but there are times when he just looks flat-out disinterested in the cage despite someone trying to punch his head off. It’s infuriating and baffling.
If he’s in the right headspace, he should throttle Morono, who makes up for his ungainly striking with durability and aggression. After watching Mein struggle with lesser strikers like Emil Meek, though, I can’t have any faith in his ability to execute. So, Morono outworks him to a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Morono via split decision

145 lbs.: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Austin Arnett
Hakeem Dawodu (7-1-1) entered UFC with considerable fanfare after a destructive run in World Series of Fighting (WSOF), entering his debut opposite Danny Henry as a considerable favorite. Pundits like myself got some egg in the face, however, as Henry dropped him with a right hand and damn near tore his head off with a guillotine in just 39 seconds.
All but one of his wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Austin Arnett (15-4) came up short on “Tuesday Night Contender Series” against Brandon Davis, but impressed enough to earn a call up to the Octagon five months later. Cory Sandhagen had no intention of letting that feel-good story continue, though, and put away Arnett with vicious body shots in the second round.
He is four inches taller than Dawodu, but will give up an inch of height.
As disastrous as his debut was, I still have faith that Dawodu has a ceiling somewhere in the Top 5. His offensive striking is downright beautiful and his counter-grappling is solid when his brain hasn’t just been knocked somewhere into the third row. If he’s even remotely as good as I think he is, he should obliterate Arnett.
“Golden Boy” has been outclassed on the feet in two consecutive fights by guys whom Dawodu would take behind the woodshed should they fight. There’s really no clear avenue of victory for Arnett unless Dawodu’s chin is somehow irreparably broken after that knockdown against Henry. Dawodu tears him up on the feet and finishes it with his favorite left hook to the body.
Prediction: Dawodu via first-round knockout

155 lbs.: Islam Makhachev vs. Kajan Johnson
After getting knocked flat by Adriano Martins in his sophomore Octagon appearance, Islam Makhachev (15-1) proved he was still one to watch with one-sided decisions over Chris Wade and Nik Lentz. His latest victory was his most impressive yet, a 57-second one-punch knockout of Gleison Tibau in Boston.
He has submitted six opponents and knocked out another three.
The fortunes of Kajan Johnson (23-12-1) went from bad to worse when — fresh off a brutal knockout loss in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” semifinals — he suffered another nasty knockout loss to Tae Hyun Bang in his Octagon debut. He has since rattled off four straight, however, including a one-punch knockout of Adriano Moraes in which he was a four-to-one underdog.
He will have five inches of reach on Makhachev.
As much as Johnson has been defying expectations lately, it’s hard to picture this going well for him. Makhachev’s wrestling has been downright overwhelming during his UFC tenure and his striking is starting to come together as well. Johnson won’t have the opportunity to use his length advantage when he’s constantly on the fence or on his back, and he’s not enough of a one-shot knockout artist to make Makhachev leery of constantly pushing for the takedown.
Johnson’s good enough at staying on his bicycle to avoid most of Makhachev’s punches, but he’s going to struggle mightily to steer clear of those takedowns for 15 minutes. The Dagestani racks up top control and submission attempts en route to a clear victory.
Prediction: Makhachev via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Ion Cutelaba
Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-4) entered UFC on a 12-fight win streak, 11 of those by first-round finish and eight of them in two minutes or less. He’s thus far maintained that efficiency in the Octagon, tapping Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Joachim Christensen in a combined 2:28.
This will be his first fight in 14 months after injuries sank planned bouts with Ion Cutelaba (13-3) and Aleksandar Rakic.
Before reaching UFC, Cutelaba had never had a fight last longer than 0:29 into the second round and owned six knockouts in less than one minute apiece. He has since gone even (2-2) in the Octagon itself, most recently flattening Henrique da Silva in 22 seconds.
He’s coming off a 13-month layoff of his own after USADA took issue with his ozone therapy.
I will be astonished if this fight doesn’t produce at least one bonus. These are two of the most reckless, finish-focused fighters in the entire UFC, Antigulov specializing in quick-kill submissions and Cutelaba in bell-to-bell power punching.
Somebody’s napping or tapping before too long.
This boils down to the first five minutes, when both men are fresh and Cutelaba has yet to pile on the attrition. Antigulov has quality wrestling and Cutelaba’s insane pursuit of the knockout leaves him vulnerable. If “The Hulk” can escape the first few minutes, he should be able to wear Antigulov down and bury him in punches, but I say Antigulov bowls him over and taps him in a scramble within the first few minutes.
Prediction: Antigulov via first-round submission

[Sanity Check]

Explain

I think one of them is a lock.

[Shagdogy]

Why bet on a fight that you think could end in a split, when you know its gonna be a walk in the park for TJ

Do I know that? I think he likely has a slight edge but at -125 is there value? Given that I slightly favor Randa and she’s at plus odds, that’s more of a spot that I look for. Not saying I’m super confident in her but if someone’s giving you plus odds on a coin flip you take it every time.

Also, I thought this was a thread for UFC on FOX 30, no? Sorry I didn’t mention the headliner from a different card... one that is not in Canada.

[Shagdogy]

I bet Ansaroff at even odds because I expected the money to come in on her. I think she is the superior striker and will win the standup battle unless it becomes a back and forth grappling and clinching battle as well. Canada angle is something to consider so I'll have to do tape to see who I go with eventually. Any sort of dog odds on WMMA where fighters are relatively evenly matched is attractive due to a lot more fights ending up as split decisions. The low physicality and parity in women's fights makes it really difficult to get a clear advantage unless one fighter really dominates in either the standup (somewhat rare) or on the ground (more common). Recent winners like Carmouche and Latourneau were evenly matched in striking with their opponents and could've lost a split decision easily if they just stuck with striking and didn't push their ground advantage. Instead they sealed the wins easily with TDs and top position. Moyle lost despite having a ground advantage because she waited until late in the fight to even attempt a TD, so gameplan and IQ are also more important in these situations.

I agree Ansaroff holds the striking advantage but just like you said it’s more common to see a clear and decisive edge through a wrestling/grappling advantage than a standup one in WMMA. So yeah Nina may win the standup but I think it may not be a runaway, but if Markos is in top position the judges will know right away she’s leading at that moment. So that’s really why I edge it to her (and the judges will be looking for any reason to go her way). I also think she has fought with a bit more urgency recently.

[Thor4140]

agreed on Andrade, she throws down like Lineker.

And gets hit like Justin
Gaethje

[JIBBBY]

Jose Aldo might be on the decline.. I'm kinda liking little Heathen in this spot at plus odds...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Stephens-12179

Jeremy on the 3 fight win streak, Aldo losing 3 of his last 4 fights..

UFC on Fox 30 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Calgary, Alberta - Fox
Sat 7/28		1101 Jeremy Stephens		+110
9:00PM		1102 Jose Aldo		-130

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jose Aldo might be on the decline.. I'm kinda liking little Heathen in this spot at plus odds...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Stephens-12179

Jeremy on the 3 fight win streak, Aldo losing 3 of his last 4 fights..

UFC on Fox 30 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Calgary, Alberta - Fox
Sat 7/28		1101 Jeremy Stephens		+110
9:00PM		1102 Jose Aldo		-130

Quick Breakdown of Stephens' Results Against Technical Strikers:
Doo Ho Choi Win R2 TKO
Renato Moicano Loss SD
Max Holloway Loss UD
Cub Swanson Loss UD
Donald Cerrone Loss UD

[stonebanks]

Aldo points or Stevens ko. Take your pick.

[Thrilla]

Enjoyed watching this vid more than any of the fights in last two UFC cards.

[JIBBBY]

Aldo points or Stevens ko. Take your pick.

This makes sense... Hedge angle play could be the call here..

KO and UN Dec props not out yet, those will have better odds then these below...

1111 Aldo wins by 3 round decision

+109

1105 Stephens wins inside distance

+185

[UncleChael]

I think I might be taking Poirier, Stephens, and Torres for the win this weekend. Will post my plays before the event starts.

[UncleChael]

Enjoyed watching this vid more than any of the fights in last two UFC cards.

Joanna is delusional.

[firekillex]

Aldo points or Stevens ko. Take your pick.

yup... the only way this fight can really go tbh lol
Aldo is the more technical/better fighter... but Stephens has that HUGE power and Aldo has been finished a few times lately
ill be taking Aldo but its definitely safe to hedge a bit with a Stephens KO

[Thor4140]

Quick Breakdown of Stephens' Results Against Technical Strikers:
Doo Ho Choi Win R2 TKO
Renato Moicano Loss SD
Max Holloway Loss UD
Cub Swanson Loss UD
Donald Cerrone Loss UD

Normally i wouldnt take any of these Brazilians since the doping has taking place but Aldo first fight with Blessed was a real solid effort. The second was short notice so i threw that one out. He has had a full camp. I have been a huge Stevens fan since the day he fought Dean Thomas but I don't see much decline in Aldo's game. Im with ya on Aldo. I think he knocks Stevens out. I do worry about Stevens kicking game tho, but Stevens is a lot like Robbie Lawler. Both have tremendous kicking games but will rarely use it. I think the first time Aldo lands a kick Stevens kicking game will become obsolete. Bless is an absolute animal and Aldo had great moments in that first fight. I think like DC has said "there are levels in this sport" This to me is one of those levels.

[Demonata]

Johanna Poirier and aldo for the win

[Hugo de Naranja]

Aldo points or Stevens ko. Take your pick.

*Stephens

[Hugo de Naranja]

This makes sense... Hedge angle play could be the call here..

KO and UN Dec props not out yet, those will have better odds then these below...

1111 Aldo wins by 3 round decision

+109

1105 Stephens wins inside distance

+185

I got a pretty solid bet down on Aldo Decision (+160) with a hedge on Stephens ITD (+315) at the openers. At this point I think Aldo ML at slight favorite odds is the play to make here.