[turbozed]

Friday 07.06.2018 at 10:00 PM ET

• U.S. Broadcast: Fox Sports 1 | Prelims: UFC Fight Pass
• Name: The Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale
• Also Known As: UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Adesanya
• Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
• Ownership: WME-IMG
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena
• Location: Last Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Enclosure: Octagon

TUF 27 Finale Quick Card

• Brad Tavares vs. Israel Adesanya 185 lbs
• Roxanne Modafferi vs. Barb Honchak 125 lbs
• Julian Marquez vs. A. Di Chirico 185 lbs
• Mike Trizano vs. Joe Giannetti 155 lbs
• Rachael Ostovich vs. M. De La Rosa 125 lbs
• Oskar Piechota vs. G. Meerschaert 185 lbs
• Matt Bessette vs. Steven Peterson 145 lbs
• Alex Caceres vs. Martín Bravo 145 lbs
• Luis Pena vs. Richie Smullen 155 lbs
• John Gunther vs. Allan Zuñiga 155 lbs

[turbozed]

Watched Adesanya/Tavares tape today and think Adesanya is the right side now that the lines are closer to even. Can't be too big on Israel though because this is a 5 rounder and I'm not sure how Israel is going to look in rounds 4 and 5 if it gets there.

Although Vettori is not as skilled of a fighter as Tavares all around, I think he might have been a worse style matchup for Israel since Vettori brings more pressure and is a bit tougher. He also has second level attack after his first combo (either going for a takedown or throwing another combo) whereas Tavares pretty much has one salvo in every exchange. Tavares is bit more accurate and has a faster trigger. Unless Tavares has a great pressure offensive wrestling game that he's been keeping in his pocket all these years, I don't think he can bring the same type of pressure and pace that Vettori brought.

Israel did look like he had at least another round in him in the Vettori fight but maybe would have given ground a bit due to Vettori's pace and maybe might have let himself get taken down. I don't think Israel by decision is out of the question as the lines suggest, but agree that a stoppage is more likely for Israel. Some of those clean shots that Vettori took looked like trouble if landing on Tavares' chin. Tavares also dashes into his strikes, which is going to be necessary to overcome the reach disadvantage, but is going to be very dangerous against an accurate counter-striker like Israel. I can see Tavares overextending himself with an overhand right and eating a flush knee, for example.

Even with a decent sense of the matchup, I'm having a hard time thinking of ways to play this besides the ML. I'll wait until the o/u and round props come out, but would like your opinions.

[Teem]

Thanks for making the thread Turbozed. And nice analysis on Adesanya/Tavares. I like Adesanya for the KO. He's always going to hunt for it. And he's just fun to bet on ha.

Also, I feel like Adesanya will improve on what he needs to improve on. Tavares isn't going to change much at this point.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Watched Adesanya/Tavares tape today and think Adesanya is the right side now that the lines are closer to even. Can't be too big on Israel though because this is a 5 rounder and I'm not sure how Israel is going to look in rounds 4 and 5 if it gets there.

Although Vettori is not as skilled of a fighter as Tavares all around, I think he might have been a worse style matchup for Israel since Vettori brings more pressure and is a bit tougher. He also has second level attack after his first combo (either going for a takedown or throwing another combo) whereas Tavares pretty much has one salvo in every exchange. Tavares is bit more accurate and has a faster trigger. Unless Tavares has a great pressure offensive wrestling game that he's been keeping in his pocket all these years, I don't think he can bring the same type of pressure and pace that Vettori brought.

Israel did look like he had at least another round in him in the Vettori fight but maybe would have given ground a bit due to Vettori's pace and maybe might have let himself get taken down. I don't think Israel by decision is out of the question as the lines suggest, but agree that a stoppage is more likely for Israel. Some of those clean shots that Vettori took looked like trouble if landing on Tavares' chin. Tavares also dashes into his strikes, which is going to be necessary to overcome the reach disadvantage, but is going to be very dangerous against an accurate counter-striker like Israel. I can see Tavares overextending himself with an overhand right and eating a flush knee, for example.

Even with a decent sense of the matchup, I'm having a hard time thinking of ways to play this besides the ML. I'll wait until the o/u and round props come out, but would like your opinions.

I'm seeing things the same way. I'm taking Adesanya but I understand why people are taking Tavares here.

[Thrilla]

Remember Vettori asked (called out) for that fight with Adesanya. Needs to be factored in when judging the fight. Maybe it would have been a more convincing win for Adesanya otherwise.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Remember Vettori asked (called out) for that fight with Adesanya. Needs to be factored in when judging the fight. Maybe it would have been a more convincing win for Adesanya otherwise.

I don't see the relation between a callout and how a fight is judged. Care to explain your point of view here?

[Thrilla]

Damn last time I checked Tavares was +150ish. Missed the boat...too busy with World Cup Soccer.

@Hugo howcome I don't see you in the soccer forum? What kind of spanish guy are you not having a interest in the World Cup? You really are a MMA nerd...

[Thrilla]

I don't see the relation between a callout and how a fight is judged. Care to explain your point of view here?

More confident when calling the other guy out. Believe in himself.

By judging I meant...us analyzing the fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Damn last time I checked Tavares was +150ish. Missed the boat...too busy with World Cup Soccer.

@Hugo howcome I don't see you in the soccer forum? What kind of spanish guy are you not having a interest in the World Cup? You really are a MMA nerd...

I've got bets on the WC as well.

Not a Spanish guy haha

[Hugo de Naranja]

More confident when calling the other guy out. Believe in himself.

By judging I meant...us analyzing the fight.

Gotcha

[Thrilla]

I've got bets on the WC as well.

Not a Spanish guy haha

South American guy?

[Hugo de Naranja]

South American guy?

Nah dawg White af

[Thrilla]

Nah dawg White af

All of this time I thought you were southamerican. Spanish username and southamerican fighter avatars.

[Hugo de Naranja]

All of this time I thought you were southamerican. Spanish username and southamerican fighter avatars.

Who did I have besides Ferguson? I remember Cowboy for a bit but don't remember who else I had in the past.

[Thrilla]

Who did I have besides Ferguson? I remember Cowboy for a bit but don't remember who else I had in the past.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ah yeah my boy Lineker!

[Teem]

I don't know much about the majority of the fighters on this card. Didn't watch TUF so i'm just gonna drink a beer and enjoy Gunther/Zuniga and Trizano/Giannetti. I like Piechota and Marquez though. And it's so hard to back Caceres.

[Teem]

And I really hope "Violent Bob Ross" puts on a show. He's from Hillsboro MO, which is like 15 minutes north from me... I know Smullen trains at SBG but Pena is just a freak. 6'3" with a 78" reach and at Lightweight. Haha! Pena has solid wrestling. I envision him sinking in a choke fairly early.

[Shagdogy]

Watched Adesanya/Tavares tape today and think Adesanya is the right side now that the lines are closer to even. Can't be too big on Israel though because this is a 5 rounder and I'm not sure how Israel is going to look in rounds 4 and 5 if it gets there.

Although Vettori is not as skilled of a fighter as Tavares all around, I think he might have been a worse style matchup for Israel since Vettori brings more pressure and is a bit tougher. He also has second level attack after his first combo (either going for a takedown or throwing another combo) whereas Tavares pretty much has one salvo in every exchange. Tavares is bit more accurate and has a faster trigger. Unless Tavares has a great pressure offensive wrestling game that he's been keeping in his pocket all these years, I don't think he can bring the same type of pressure and pace that Vettori brought.

Israel did look like he had at least another round in him in the Vettori fight but maybe would have given ground a bit due to Vettori's pace and maybe might have let himself get taken down. I don't think Israel by decision is out of the question as the lines suggest, but agree that a stoppage is more likely for Israel. Some of those clean shots that Vettori took looked like trouble if landing on Tavares' chin. Tavares also dashes into his strikes, which is going to be necessary to overcome the reach disadvantage, but is going to be very dangerous against an accurate counter-striker like Israel. I can see Tavares overextending himself with an overhand right and eating a flush knee, for example.

Even with a decent sense of the matchup, I'm having a hard time thinking of ways to play this besides the ML. I'll wait until the o/u and round props come out, but would like your opinions.

I have Tavares slightly favored and I have since I heard this matchup. I don't think he kickboxes with Adesanya more than he has to, and I think he will grind away at him better than anyone else has. Tavares has excellent TDD which won't matter in this fight, but his strength in the clinch translates over and I think he will be able to control a lot of this fight on the cage, maybe even land some TDs. If Adesanya doesn't KO in the first 2 rounds I think it's Tavares's fight to take, and I think Tavares will know that and will fight accordingly. This fight will be fought in the smaller cage too, which I think just gives Adesanya even less space to stay off the cage. At +150 Tavares was the play. My book didn't open it until it got back down to +110 so unless Tavares gets back up there I will just sit back and enjoy this fight.

[Shagdogy]

I don't know much about the majority of the fighters on this card. Didn't watch TUF so i'm just gonna drink a beer and enjoy Gunther/Zuniga and Trizano/Giannetti. I like Piechota and Marquez though. And it's so hard to back Caceres.

I like Marquez a lot other than his cardio. He has bombs in his hands, and his grit is very high. He doesn't have 100% TDD but he fights every takedown and fights for his getups before he even hits the mat. He's relentless and always seems to drag guys into brawls with him, which has not been a good plan for his opponents. I harp on this all the time, but this fight is in the smaller cage, and I think that will benefit Marquez. Any time you spend inside with him you are within reach of his bombs. He's the kind of guy you want to fight all the way out or all the way in, and I don't think Di Chirico will have an easy time getting that done here. Also, Di Chirico might be a bit of a fraud. Not sure. He has some decently crisp hands, but the guys he has beat in the UFC... not great. Neither Bamgbose or Mclellan are in the UFC any longer, and Bamgbose didn't even fight him in the fight they had. We know Marquez can scrap so I think he's worth a shot here.

[turbozed]

I have Tavares slightly favored and I have since I heard this matchup. I don't think he kickboxes with Adesanya more than he has to, and I think he will grind away at him better than anyone else has. Tavares has excellent TDD which won't matter in this fight, but his strength in the clinch translates over and I think he will be able to control a lot of this fight on the cage, maybe even land some TDs. If Adesanya doesn't KO in the first 2 rounds I think it's Tavares's fight to take, and I think Tavares will know that and will fight accordingly. This fight will be fought in the smaller cage too, which I think just gives Adesanya even less space to stay off the cage. At +150 Tavares was the play. My book didn't open it until it got back down to +110 so unless Tavares gets back up there I will just sit back and enjoy this fight.

Good point about the smaller cage. Israel should never have accepted a fight in a small cage. That factor alone makes me hesitant to bet more on Israel. But I think until we've seen Tavares execute a pressure grappling and clinch game and mix that up well with his striking, we can at least assume that he won't be comfortable doing so. This is like the discussion in the other thread about Holm/Anderson and Rountree/Saki. Sure Rountree and Tavares might do something radically different, but they either (1) may not do it at all or (2) try to do it and not be particularly successful.

I got Tavares at +175 and, even though he's been my winning horse his past 3 fights, I still found it hard backing him at that price due to the striking style matchup. Maybe I've just drank too much of the Israel Kool-Aid but I did bet Vettori last time and intend on fading Israel in the future if he wins this fight because he's going to have a prospect loss soon. I just don't know if Brad is the guy to give him an L.

[Shagdogy]

Turbo any other thoughts on this card? I like Pena to win with ease (missed his wrestling background when I first glanced at this one), Marquez ML, Piechota as a parlay piece (maybe ML if it drops some. I think he beats Meerschaert everywhere but a point fighting striking match), and then I have small lean towards Bessette ML.

Gonna hit up Vegas for this one and 226 so trying to nail down some of my favs. Let me know if you line up with me on any of those.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good point about the smaller cage. Israel should never have accepted a fight in a small cage. That factor alone makes me hesitant to bet more on Israel. But I think until we've seen Tavares execute a pressure grappling and clinch game and mix that up well with his striking, we can at least assume that he won't be comfortable doing so. This is like the discussion in the other thread about Holm/Anderson and Rountree/Saki. Sure Rountree and Tavares might do something radically different, but they either (1) may not do it at all or (2) try to do it and not be particularly successful.

I got Tavares at +175 and, even though he's been my winning horse his past 3 fights, I still found it hard backing him at that price due to the striking style matchup. Maybe I've just drank too much of the Israel Kool-Aid but I did bet Vettori last time and intend on fading Israel in the future if he wins this fight because he's going to have a prospect loss soon. I just don't know if Brad is the guy to give him an L.

Which side are you on here Turbs?

[turbozed]

There was some reports of Tavares pulling out with injury a couple weeks back. Here's an article where he clears up what happened:

https://www.lowkickmma.com/brad-tava...le-fight-exit/

My read is that there is an injury of some sort but that he can still train and fight on it. Something to consider.

“So I had an old injury that basically got taken as a new, current injury,” Tavares explained to MMANytt. “A lot of misinformation and miscommunication because the UFC medical personnel that relayed this message to Dana [White] had never even spoken to me, had never ever spoke to their own UFC [physical therapy] staff who I had been working with at the UFC [Performance Institute]. Just a lot of miscommunication, misinformation and it blew up.”
“After it all happened, I posted a video of me working out doing heavy squats, jumping, stuff that you wouldn’t be able to do,” Tavares said. “It was an injury that I had a while ago and like I said they misconstrued it and it blew up but I’m fine. I’m ready to rock and roll.”

“That’s exactly my thoughts and that’s what I was saying — I don’t think that I’ve ever gone into a fight without any kind of injury,” Tavares said with a laugh. “That being said, there are injuries that are a lot more serious and there are fight preventing injuries.
“I feel like if I ever approached a fight and everything was perfect, like nothing [wrong], I would almost feel a little weird.”

[turbozed]

Which side are you on here Turbs?

Israel. I bought out of my Tavares bet and now have a small freeroll on Israel. Considering adding.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Israel. I bought out of my Tavares bet and now have a small freeroll on Israel. Considering adding.

Got it.

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

^^ Sh*t bag Colby

[Teem]

I'm sold on Pena, Marquez, and Piechota. Trying to pull the trigger on Bessette. What do you guys think of Ostovich/De La Rosa?

[Rich Benjamins]

I'm sold on Pena, Marquez, and Piechota. Trying to pull the trigger on Bessette. What do you guys think of Ostovich/De La Rosa?

I like those picks. Think Bessette is more of a pickem. For sure De La Rosa.

[Teem]

Who do you guys like to get the W out of the TUF this season?...

Giannetti/Trizano
Katona/Cucciniello
Pena/Smullen
Gunther/Zuniga
Diamond/Mitchell

[PaperTrail07]

I'm on Allessio.....Marquez's skills didn't seem that good to me....I agree on the small cage-why I wont go big....but Marquez really does not impress IMO

I like Marquez a lot other than his cardio. He has bombs in his hands, and his grit is very high. He doesn't have 100% TDD but he fights every takedown and fights for his getups before he even hits the mat. He's relentless and always seems to drag guys into brawls with him, which has not been a good plan for his opponents. I harp on this all the time, but this fight is in the smaller cage, and I think that will benefit Marquez. Any time you spend inside with him you are within reach of his bombs. He's the kind of guy you want to fight all the way out or all the way in, and I don't think Di Chirico will have an easy time getting that done here. Also, Di Chirico might be a bit of a fraud. Not sure. He has some decently crisp hands, but the guys he has beat in the UFC... not great. Neither Bamgbose or Mclellan are in the UFC any longer, and Bamgbose didn't even fight him in the fight they had. We know Marquez can scrap so I think he's worth a shot here.

[Rich Benjamins]

Giannetti, Katona, Pena, Zuniga, and ?

Who do you guys like to get the W out of the TUF this season?...

Giannetti/Trizano
Katona/Cucciniello
Pena/Smullen
Gunther/Zuniga
Diamond/Mitchell

[PaperTrail07]

Also on Tavares.... Style benders toughest fight of his career....another day in the park for Tavares... Stylebender is no Whittaker, Romero...come on now...

[UncleChael]

Brads not that good and rumour on the interwebs, hes hurt coming in?