1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards (June 23, 2018)



    UFC Fight Pass, 8:00 am ET
    Donald Cerrone vs Leon Edwards
    Tyson Pedro vs Ovince Saint Preux
    Jessica-Rose Clark vs Jessica Eye
    Daichi Abe vs Li Jingliang

    UFC Fight Pass 4:30 am ET
    Teruto Ishihara vs Petr Yan
    Felipe Arantes vs Song Yadong
    Hector Aldana vs Song Kenan
    Shinsho Anzai vs Jake Matthews
    Nadia Kassem vs Yan Xiaonan
    Naoki Inoue vs Matt Schnell
    Jenel Lausa vs Ulka Sasaki



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  2. #2
    PaperTrail07
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    Pedro-132 is a gift... GL
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  3. #3
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    how do you fade the asian when its asian on asian fight?

    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 06-13-18 at 07:11 PM.
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  4. #4
    Sanity Check
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    Surprised to see Teruto Ishihara near +400 against a relative unknown.

    Bet on the sambo guy / asian fade in effect?

  5. #5
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Surprised to see Teruto Ishihara near +400 against a relative unknown.

    Bet on the sambo guy / asian fade in effect?
    Yan is a top top Russian prospect. Think he penetrates Ishi up
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  6. #6
    turbozed
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    Jessica Rose-Clark vs Jessica Eye


    Jessy Rose-Clark made her way into the UFC with a win over a recognizable name in Carina Damm and was given her first UFC fight against fellow Aussie Bec Rawlings in a battle for the title of the tatted-up, dyed-hair, trashy Bogan Queen of Australia (for the record I like both girls).

    It's doubtful that she would've gotten the call up to the UFC at all if Joanne Calderwood didn't withdraw from that fight and the event wasn't in Sydney. Her record prior was not very impressive. Aside from beating an aging 38 year old Carina Damm (who had never won a fight outside of Brazil anyway), Jessy had lost to Sarah Kaufman, Pam Sorenson, and arguably against Janay Harding. The fight against Harding is counted as a decision victory but some may not be aware that Harding was automatically deducted 2 points for missing weight and would've won the decision otherwise.


    Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the recently training at Syndicate MMA and the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas. Her body has made a drastic transformation as well going from slightly pudgy bantamweight to a lean and mean flyweight. The question going into this fight with Jessica Eye is whether these improvements have been significant enough to turn Jessy from a questionable signing to a legit talent at 125 that can continue her winning streak and beat perennial bantamweight underperformer Jessica Eye. Unless Jessy has made a quantum leap in improvement, the answer is going to be a no for me (dawg).

    Though Paige VanZant and Bec Rawlings are recognizable names, they were never contenders at 115. Both girls moved up to the new flyweight class not because they were too big for 115, but because they had already lost too often there and didn't feel like cutting weight anymore (Rawlings due to a thyroid issue and VanZant just out of laziness apparently). Thus, when both fought Jessy, they were both at a full weightclass disadvantage, which is even more significant body percentage wise at 115 to 125.


    Despite having a size advantage over Rawlings (even coming in over the limit at 128 lbs), Jessy wasn't very confident in her BJJ (she's a blue belt), not doing much to Rawlings and standing up out of a dominant ground position. Rawlings had the right gameplan moving forward and pressuring Jessy, as Jessy would lose exchanges moving backwards against McMann, Sorenson, and Harding. Rawlings unfortunately didn't have enough physical presence and pop in her offense to make Clark retreat consistently. Instead, Clark often stood her ground and was able to land some crisp counter punches. Rawlings found more success in Rd3 keeping Jessy on her back foot and even wobbling Jessy with some hard shots, but not enough to change the outcome of the fight.


    Jessy wasn't exactly dominating in her win against PVZ either. In the first round, PVZ easily stuffed a poor takedown attempt from but bailed Jessy out by attempting a terrible head and arm throw that resulted in her ending up on bottom with Jessy in side control. PVZ was able to immediately work her away up before going to the ground again. It took all of Jessy's effort to just control PVZ on the ground and she was unable to do much damage for the next couple of minutes. Not comfortable in her range TDs, Jessy would pull guard in Rd2 before landing a TD against the cage. However, she would get reversed again by PVZ transitioning to mount but managed to salvage a bad position by tightening up an initially loose triangle attempt from the bottom. In the third frame, despite having a size and grappling advantage, Jessy would arguably lose the range striking battle with a broken-armed PVZ.


    Like Jessy Rose-Clark, Jessica Eye punched her ticket to the UFC beating Carina Damm but way back in 2013. Since then, she has been a poster child of unrealized potential and bad fight IQ, hitting rock bottom by losing her fourth straight fight at 135 to Bethe Correia her own hometown. I can understand why Eye is lined as the dog here. With her poor fight decisions, she is frustrating enough to watch without having money riding on her. Eye is way too comfortable looking for submissions from her back and dropping rounds. Against Correira in the 3rd round, Eye looked to have genuinely believed that she was up 2 rounds and employed a 'prevent defense' that prevented her from winning the fight. In her recent fight against Kalindra Faria, she inexplicably stood up from Faria's guard instead of riding out top position for an easy round win.


    Though billed as a 'technical striker' she's only lived up to that title in rare moments. Against Leslie smith, Eye landed some crisp punch combinations and fast kicks with high volume. Against Meisha Tate, Eye was successful early controlling range and landing counters and striking back with multiple punch combinations (before eventually getting caught and knocked down). Eye is very hittable coming forward however, so she's liable to get lose rounds by letting her opponents land the more memorable strikes.


    At 135, against strong competition, Eye has shown flashes of success grappling as well. Though overpowered against bigger and stronger girls like Tate, Pena, and McMann, Eye has had her moments. Most notably, in Rd2 of her fight against Pena, she was able to dominate round 2 on the ground and nearly lock in a arm triangle against a very strong grappler. Against Faria, Eye showed a significant grappling advantage, controlling Rd2 in dominant position and landing a strong blast double in the center of the cage in Rd3.

    It's on the mat where Eye will have a clear advantage. There's a huge difference between barely overpowering poor and undersized strawweights like Rawlings and PVZ and competing with big strong girls like Pena. Eye seems to have recently embraced her grappling at 125, recently competing in a few no-gi grappling contest and proclaiming in her victory speech against Faria that "takedowns wins fights" and "nobody cares if you can punch and kick, they want to see you wrestle."

    If it does comes to punching and kicking, it's not certain that Eye is going to be at a disadvantage against Jessy either. Eye will be the slightly longer fighter and has recently started mixing in more kicks at range. Jessy was clearly frustrated with the kicking game of VanZant, and Jessy may not have the power to keep Eye away with counters. If Eye does lose the striking exchanges, she has the option to take it to the mat and control the fight there. I wouldn't put it past Eye and her bad fight IQ to not take this fight to the ground and lose a close kickboxing match, but this seems less likely given that she went this route against Faria in the last 2 rounds of her most recent fight.


    I believe Eye should be the favorite in this fight and we're getting good underdog odds a bit due to recency bias and popularity. Jessy has had the two more higher profile wins against recognizable names while Eye has just won a split decision after going 0-4 previously. Still, Eye at even her worst looks to be a significant step up from the likes of Damm, Rawlings and PVZ. If Eye has figured out how to put the pieces together, Jessy may be in for a rough fight.
    Last edited by turbozed; 06-14-18 at 05:17 PM.
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  7. #7
    turbozed
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    ^^ Please pick the above apart and let me know what I'm missing because I'd rather not lose money betting on Jessica "Low-IQ" Eye if I'm wrong.

  8. #8
    Sanity Check
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    I 100% don't remember the Kalindra Faria vs Jessica Eye fight and need to see it to check if Jessica Eye progressed during her losing streak.

    My initial lean is towards Rose Clark. From what I remember of Jessica Eye, she hasn't looked *right* in the cage in a long time. There's something *off* about her. Rose Clark is the hungrier, more talented, skilled and better prepared fighter at this stage of things.

    The only thing I remember from last Jessica Eye's last fight is the audience and everyone being disappointed by her performance(?). (Am I remembering correctly here?) Eye winning her last fight might have been more due to Faria's shortcomings than Eye's strengths.

  9. #9
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    I 100% don't remember the Kalindra Faria vs Jessica Eye fight and need to see it to check if Jessica Eye progressed during her losing streak.

    My initial lean is towards Rose Clark. From what I remember of Jessica Eye, she hasn't looked *right* in the cage in a long time. There's something *off* about her. Rose Clark is the hungrier, more talented, skilled and better prepared fighter at this stage of things.

    The only thing I remember from last Jessica Eye's last fight is the audience and everyone being disappointed by her performance(?). (Am I remembering correctly here?) Eye winning her last fight might have been more due to Faria's shortcomings than Eye's strengths.
    Can you bet a bit more specific or is it really just a gut feeling?

  10. #10
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Can you bet a bit more specific or is it really just a gut feeling?
    IMO Jessica Eye is a special kind of stupid. She has a unique talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and losing fights she should have won. Aye. Gut feeling.

  11. #11
    Shagdogy
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    Turbo, seems like you and others agree the fight IQ of Eye is a big drawback. That alone would make me reconsider, or at least limit my play to being a small one. Nothing worse than betting big on an idiot and losing your bet not because of their skills but because theyíre an idiot.
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  12. #12
    Shagdogy
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    Turbo and others - Have you looked at Xiaonan Yan vs. Viviane Pereira? The line seems a bit off here... even after the initial movement. To keep it short, I have these girls even in terms of reach and power, but IMO Yan fights longer and much more varied on the feet. Should it stay standing, I think she accumulates strikes en route to a decision. Factor in that the fight is in Singapore and I like her a bit more. The only question IMO is if Pereira can bully into the clinch and control Yan and take her down enough to swing the decision her way. It's a possibility but not one that warrants Pereira being a 2-1 favorite. I'm not sure where that number comes from. I like Yan here at +160. I think this line should be even to -120 in Yan's favor. Am I missing something?

  13. #13
    Shagdogy
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUyAO_gi9Fo

    Shane Young vs. Jiang Zexian (Feb 2017). A couple of observations... Holy crap Young is incredibly hittable. He is square, chin high, hands low, plodding footwork. Good chin though. And also, does this ref seriously not know what a tap is? He stands there staring right at this dude tapping for his life and doesn't stop the fight until he's out cold. Wtf? MMA needs to do better than these jackasses. Gotta be a boxing ref who literally thought Zexian was trying to fight his way out.
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  14. #14
    Rich Benjamins
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    Yes, Young doesn't look very good in this fight, and it wasn't too long ago. That was an obvious open hand tap, the ref is blind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUyAO_gi9Fo

    Shane Young vs. Jiang Zexian (Feb 2017). A couple of observations... Holy crap Young is incredibly hittable. He is square, chin high, hands low, plodding footwork. Good chin though. And also, does this ref seriously not know what a tap is? He stands there staring right at this dude tapping for his life and doesn't stop the fight until he's out cold. Wtf? MMA needs to do better than these jackasses. Gotta be a boxing ref who literally thought Zexian was trying to fight his way out.

  15. #15
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  16. #16
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    Yes, Young doesn't look very good in this fight, and it wasn't too long ago. That was an obvious open hand tap, the ref is blind.
    I finished capping the Young/Dy matchup and I think Young is getting too much credit for surviving Volkanovski. He has a chin, and he has TDD and getups. This fight vs Dy is gonna be a kickboxing match so only the chin really matters. Offensively, Dy is faster and more powerful IMO, and outside of a single knockdown by Ishihara, his chin has locked pretty good as well.

    I see Young walking forward with fluid, high volume, varied striking. He mixes it up real well. BUT, heís very hittable, and Dy is a speedy, accurate, counter puncher. Itís a nice matchup. I think a lot of punches land in this one. I think Dyís left hook will be a big weapon over Youngís kicks. Given that Dy has both the speed and power IMO, I have to favor him slightly. He will need the cardio to fight a high volume fight for 3 rounds though because we know Young is tough to get out of there.

  17. #17
    JIBBBY
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    Cowboy should be able to beat Leon Edwards.. If Cowboy isn't completely washed up now I think he's worth the try in this spot at +175...

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  18. #18
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUyAO_gi9Fo

    Shane Young vs. Jiang Zexian (Feb 2017). A couple of observations... Holy crap Young is incredibly hittable. He is square, chin high, hands low, plodding footwork. Good chin though. And also, does this ref seriously not know what a tap is? He stands there staring right at this dude tapping for his life and doesn't stop the fight until he's out cold. Wtf? MMA needs to do better than these jackasses. Gotta be a boxing ref who literally thought Zexian was trying to fight his way out.
    I thought he looked bad in this fight too. But then watching him in the Siitia Leti fight (available on Fightpass) it looks like it takes him a few minutes to get going with his range volume striking. This fight might look a bit like low level Conor/Nate I. Though Rolando does have sharper striking and faster hands, he doesn't really have many KO's on his record and he didn't land a single knockdown against pretty low level UFC competition in Ishihara, Buren, and Caceres (who went down a few times to Wang Guan's punches).

    I think the touching jabs and flicking kicks might be enough of a timing interrupter that it'll make it tough for Dy to get his offense off. Even if Young does lose the striking battle, Young's wrestling may be at least as good as Ishihara. Young wrestled in high school and his counter-wrestling looked better against Alex Volk than even a strong wrestler like Jeremy Kennedy.

    The last reason not to bet Dy here is that he's proven himself a bit of a headcase. There's an instagram post of him from about a week or two a go apologizing to his girlfriend for getting drunk and cheating on her and begging for her to forgive him. Low fight IQ. I won some money off him last fight but am leaning Young here as he's at least a solid and consistent fighter.
    Last edited by turbozed; 06-17-18 at 11:58 PM.

  19. #19
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Turbo, seems like you and others agree the fight IQ of Eye is a big drawback. That alone would make me reconsider, or at least limit my play to being a small one. Nothing worse than betting big on an idiot and losing your bet not because of their skills but because they’re an idiot.
    The thing that makes me a bit more confident here is that Eye really can't make too many strategic errors here. I think Eye is going to be the stronger grappler, but I don't think she clearly loses the standup either. The worst case scenario is that Eye plays a guard game off her back looking for submissions but I don't think the fight consistently goes there since JRC's takedowns aren't the greatest.

    In any case, Eye has been saying in interviews that she plans to grapple. I think at worst this fight is a coinflip if Eye comes out with her usual poor IQ. If she comes with a decent gameplan and uses her strength advantage, even better.

  20. #20
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Turbo and others - Have you looked at Xiaonan Yan vs. Viviane Pereira? The line seems a bit off here... even after the initial movement. To keep it short, I have these girls even in terms of reach and power, but IMO Yan fights longer and much more varied on the feet. Should it stay standing, I think she accumulates strikes en route to a decision. Factor in that the fight is in Singapore and I like her a bit more. The only question IMO is if Pereira can bully into the clinch and control Yan and take her down enough to swing the decision her way. It's a possibility but not one that warrants Pereira being a 2-1 favorite. I'm not sure where that number comes from. I like Yan here at +160. I think this line should be even to -120 in Yan's favor. Am I missing something?
    I took Yan in the +200 range.

    I think the odds are good enough to take a stab at Yan. Her range striking seems good enough to outpoint Viviane in a close fight. However, the biggest concern is the strength and power difference. Viviane looks like an absolute tank and had enough cardio and toughness to survive on the ground with Suarez. Yan's grappling is sub par and my suspicion is that Suarez would've probably just subbed Yan in the 1st if they had fought. Yan just looks so uncomfortable being pressed up against the cage by some pretty bad fighters that there's a very good chance that just a decent grappler in Viviane just powers her down to the mat and has her way there.

    I'm hoping Viviane comes out a bit flat and kind of just relents to a range kickboxing match but I'm guessing she dives for the clinch at the first sidekick to the face if she feels she's losing that. We'll have to see whether Yan's counterwrestling game has improved enough to at least stall and make Viviane look bad in the judges eyes.
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  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I took Yan in the +200 range.

    I think the odds are good enough to take a stab at Yan. Her range striking seems good enough to outpoint Viviane in a close fight. However, the biggest concern is the strength and power difference. Viviane looks like an absolute tank and had enough cardio and toughness to survive on the ground with Suarez. Yan's grappling is sub par and my suspicion is that Suarez would've probably just subbed Yan in the 1st if they had fought. Yan just looks so uncomfortable being pressed up against the cage by some pretty bad fighters that there's a very good chance that just a decent grappler in Viviane just powers her down to the mat and has her way there.

    I'm hoping Viviane comes out a bit flat and kind of just relents to a range kickboxing match but I'm guessing she dives for the clinch at the first sidekick to the face if she feels she's losing that. We'll have to see whether Yan's counterwrestling game has improved enough to at least stall and make Viviane look bad in the judges eyes.
    Sounds like we've got a consensus play. Shaggy and I are on this too.

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  22. #22
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Pedro-132 is a gift... GL

    Why?

  23. #23
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Sounds like we've got a consensus play. Shaggy and I are on this too.


  24. #24
    turbozed
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    I initially bet Song Yadong on the strength of his last performance against Khandare. We all know he looked great out there looking like Conor McGregor and winning performance of the night.

    However, looking through his record, I noticed some red flags. He's got a decision loss to an 0-2 guy about a year and a half ago. Yadong was also an emergency short notice (2 week) replacement for his teammate Pingyuan Liu. Makes sense because his only good win was against Edgars Skrivers. Khandare based on his record and how terrible he looked possibly could be a completely horrible fighter and easy for a young fast fighter to look great against. There's enough there to suggest that possibly Yadong is not a UFC level fighter despite looking kinda good for 4 minutes.

    So I went on a deep dive looking for tape on the guy and found the China Henan TV official Youtube channel that airs WLF fights (the promotion Yadong fights for). Everything is in Chinese and not labeled and events are split into multiple videos that I had to scrub through to find his fights.

    Here's the fights I found:

    WLF EPIC 1 Vs Alexander Zaitsev (0-1)

    https://youtu.be/mrAD0S6TrvI2016-08-12

    WLF EPIC 6 vs Vachagan (0-0)

    https://youtu.be/aMgQfRJUt4A?t=1h13m37s2016-11-25

    WLF EPIC 9 vs Renat Ondar (0-2)

    https://youtu.be/UHKZRpgUg2Y?t=1h5m57s2017-01-
    13
    -

    WLF WARS 10 vs Renat Ondar (1-2 rematch)

    https://youtu.be/bJSLGZc3MnA

    Go watch it yourself but it looks like at least as of 1.5 to 2 years ago, Yadong looked to have a terrible ground game and got outboxed by an 0-2 fighter (a pretty good 0-2 fighter but still). Also his tapology record is wrong. Instead of fighting Shamil at WLF 10, he fought a rematch with Renat Odor and lost another decision in a 5 rounder.

    Hugo, Shagy, anyone else interested, please watch and let me know what you think. I might consider a big bet on Arantes unless someone talks me out of it. He's a durable BJJ brown belt and looks to have a huge advantage if this hits the mat.

    Really wish I could find that Edgars Skrivers fight or even a description of it since that fight would explain a lot and show if Yadong really has improved or not.

  25. #25
    Demonata
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    Cowboy will get destroyed. It sucks but it's going to happen.

  26. #26
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I initially bet Song Yadong on the strength of his last performance against Khandare. We all know he looked great out there looking like Conor McGregor and winning performance of the night.

    However, looking through his record, I noticed some red flags. He's got a decision loss to an 0-2 guy about a year and a half ago. Yadong was also an emergency short notice (2 week) replacement for his teammate Pingyuan Liu. Makes sense because his only good win was against Edgars Skrivers. Khandare based on his record and how terrible he looked possibly could be a completely horrible fighter and easy for a young fast fighter to look great against. There's enough there to suggest that possibly Yadong is not a UFC level fighter despite looking kinda good for 4 minutes.

    So I went on a deep dive looking for tape on the guy and found the China Henan TV official Youtube channel that airs WLF fights (the promotion Yadong fights for). Everything is in Chinese and not labeled and events are split into multiple videos that I had to scrub through to find his fights.

    Here's the fights I found:

    WLF EPIC 1 Vs Alexander Zaitsev (0-1)

    https://youtu.be/mrAD0S6TrvI2016-08-12

    WLF EPIC 6 vs Vachagan (0-0)

    https://youtu.be/aMgQfRJUt4A?t=1h13m37s2016-11-25

    WLF EPIC 9 vs Renat Ondar (0-2)

    https://youtu.be/UHKZRpgUg2Y?t=1h5m57s2017-01-
    13
    -

    WLF WARS 10 vs Renat Ondar (1-2 rematch)

    https://youtu.be/bJSLGZc3MnA

    Go watch it yourself but it looks like at least as of 1.5 to 2 years ago, Yadong looked to have a terrible ground game and got outboxed by an 0-2 fighter (a pretty good 0-2 fighter but still). Also his tapology record is wrong. Instead of fighting Shamil at WLF 10, he fought a rematch with Renat Odor and lost another decision in a 5 rounder.

    Hugo, Shagy, anyone else interested, please watch and let me know what you think. I might consider a big bet on Arantes unless someone talks me out of it. He's a durable BJJ brown belt and looks to have a huge advantage if this hits the mat.

    Really wish I could find that Edgars Skrivers fight or even a description of it since that fight would explain a lot and show if Yadong really has improved or not.
    Iíve tried diving into this one. Last time he fought I found his fight vs Polpudski or something like that, but like a dummy I didnít save the link and canít seem to find it again. I think I saw the ones you posted but Iíll go check them out again.

    I think heís quite a speedy striker and I donít discount how quickly he could progress being extremely young, fighting for a long time already, and spending time at TAM with Faber and Garbrandt. However I do question his pure power a little bit, and while he has looked pretty scrambly on the mat, itís hard to tell if his successes have been due to his skill level or his opponenetsí lack of skill. He has at times lost on the mat too. I think physicality could be a drawback he has and Arantes wonít lack in the size/strength department. But as young as he is, Yadong May grow into his frame a bit.

    All in all this fight is a bit of an enigma because of the mystery around Yadong. Iíll look at those links again but my plan is to avoid this one.

  27. #27
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Cowboy will get destroyed. It sucks but it's going to happen.
    Hard to disagree. How does it happen though?

  28. #28
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I’ve tried diving into this one. Last time he fought I found his fight vs Polpudski or something like that, but like a dummy I didn’t save the link and can’t seem to find it again. I think I saw the ones you posted but I’ll go check them out again.

    I think he’s quite a speedy striker and I don’t discount how quickly he could progress being extremely young, fighting for a long time already, and spending time at TAM with Faber and Garbrandt. However I do question his pure power a little bit, and while he has looked pretty scrambly on the mat, it’s hard to tell if his successes have been due to his skill level or his opponenets’ lack of skill. He has at times lost on the mat too. I think physicality could be a drawback he has and Arantes won’t lack in the size/strength department. But as young as he is, Yadong May grow into his frame a bit.

    All in all this fight is a bit of an enigma because of the mystery around Yadong. I’ll look at those links again but my plan is to avoid this one.
    I understand staying away from the last fight because he was fighting another mystery in Bharat Khandare. But simply being a young and fast kid who may be improving shouldn't make someone even money against someone like Felipe Arantes who is 5-5 in the UFC (with 2 of those losses being close split decision losses) and having competed with some of the better UFC featherweights. Nobody that Arantes has beaten in the UFC would even lose a round to a 0-2 Renat Ondar.

    I'll try to find some more info on how he's doing at TAM but there's a good possibility that Arantes should be a heavy heavy favorite here.

  29. #29
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Cowboy will get destroyed. It sucks but it's going to happen.

    Why?

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Jessica Rose-Clark vs Jessica Eye


    Jessy Rose-Clark made her way into the UFC with a win over a recognizable name in Carina Damm and was given her first UFC fight against fellow Aussie Bec Rawlings in a battle for the title of the tatted-up, dyed-hair, trashy Bogan Queen of Australia (for the record I like both girls).

    It's doubtful that she would've gotten the call up to the UFC at all if Joanne Calderwood didn't withdraw from that fight and the event wasn't in Sydney. Her record prior was not very impressive. Aside from beating an aging 38 year old Carina Damm (who had never won a fight outside of Brazil anyway), Jessy had lost to Sarah Kaufman, Pam Sorenson, and arguably against Janay Harding. The fight against Harding is counted as a decision victory but some may not be aware that Harding was automatically deducted 2 points for missing weight and would've won the decision otherwise.


    Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the recently training at Syndicate MMA and the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas. Her body has made a drastic transformation as well going from slightly pudgy bantamweight to a lean and mean flyweight. The question going into this fight with Jessica Eye is whether these improvements have been significant enough to turn Jessy from a questionable signing to a legit talent at 125 that can continue her winning streak and beat perennial bantamweight underperformer Jessica Eye. Unless Jessy has made a quantum leap in improvement, the answer is going to be a no for me (dawg).

    Though Paige VanZant and Bec Rawlings are recognizable names, they were never contenders at 115. Both girls moved up to the new flyweight class not because they were too big for 115, but because they had already lost too often there and didn't feel like cutting weight anymore (Rawlings due to a thyroid issue and VanZant just out of laziness apparently). Thus, when both fought Jessy, they were both at a full weightclass disadvantage, which is even more significant body percentage wise at 115 to 125.


    Despite having a size advantage over Rawlings (even coming in over the limit at 128 lbs), Jessy wasn't very confident in her BJJ (she's a blue belt), not doing much to Rawlings and standing up out of a dominant ground position. Rawlings had the right gameplan moving forward and pressuring Jessy, as Jessy would lose exchanges moving backwards against McMann, Sorenson, and Harding. Rawlings unfortunately didn't have enough physical presence and pop in her offense to make Clark retreat consistently. Instead, Clark often stood her ground and was able to land some crisp counter punches. Rawlings found more success in Rd3 keeping Jessy on her back foot and even wobbling Jessy with some hard shots, but not enough to change the outcome of the fight.


    Jessy wasn't exactly dominating in her win against PVZ either. In the first round, PVZ easily stuffed a poor takedown attempt from but bailed Jessy out by attempting a terrible head and arm throw that resulted in her ending up on bottom with Jessy in side control. PVZ was able to immediately work her away up before going to the ground again. It took all of Jessy's effort to just control PVZ on the ground and she was unable to do much damage for the next couple of minutes. Not comfortable in her range TDs, Jessy would pull guard in Rd2 before landing a TD against the cage. However, she would get reversed again by PVZ transitioning to mount but managed to salvage a bad position by tightening up an initially loose triangle attempt from the bottom. In the third frame, despite having a size and grappling advantage, Jessy would arguably lose the range striking battle with a broken-armed PVZ.


    Like Jessy Rose-Clark, Jessica Eye punched her ticket to the UFC beating Carina Damm but way back in 2013. Since then, she has been a poster child of unrealized potential and bad fight IQ, hitting rock bottom by losing her fourth straight fight at 135 to Bethe Correia her own hometown. I can understand why Eye is lined as the dog here. With her poor fight decisions, she is frustrating enough to watch without having money riding on her. Eye is way too comfortable looking for submissions from her back and dropping rounds. Against Correira in the 3rd round, Eye looked to have genuinely believed that she was up 2 rounds and employed a 'prevent defense' that prevented her from winning the fight. In her recent fight against Kalindra Faria, she inexplicably stood up from Faria's guard instead of riding out top position for an easy round win.


    Though billed as a 'technical striker' she's only lived up to that title in rare moments. Against Leslie smith, Eye landed some crisp punch combinations and fast kicks with high volume. Against Meisha Tate, Eye was successful early controlling range and landing counters and striking back with multiple punch combinations (before eventually getting caught and knocked down). Eye is very hittable coming forward however, so she's liable to get lose rounds by letting her opponents land the more memorable strikes.


    At 135, against strong competition, Eye has shown flashes of success grappling as well. Though overpowered against bigger and stronger girls like Tate, Pena, and McMann, Eye has had her moments. Most notably, in Rd2 of her fight against Pena, she was able to dominate round 2 on the ground and nearly lock in a arm triangle against a very strong grappler. Against Faria, Eye showed a significant grappling advantage, controlling Rd2 in dominant position and landing a strong blast double in the center of the cage in Rd3.

    It's on the mat where Eye will have a clear advantage. There's a huge difference between barely overpowering poor and undersized strawweights like Rawlings and PVZ and competing with big strong girls like Pena. Eye seems to have recently embraced her grappling at 125, recently competing in a few no-gi grappling contest and proclaiming in her victory speech against Faria that "takedowns wins fights" and "nobody cares if you can punch and kick, they want to see you wrestle."

    If it does comes to punching and kicking, it's not certain that Eye is going to be at a disadvantage against Jessy either. Eye will be the slightly longer fighter and has recently started mixing in more kicks at range. Jessy was clearly frustrated with the kicking game of VanZant, and Jessy may not have the power to keep Eye away with counters. If Eye does lose the striking exchanges, she has the option to take it to the mat and control the fight there. I wouldn't put it past Eye and her bad fight IQ to not take this fight to the ground and lose a close kickboxing match, but this seems less likely given that she went this route against Faria in the last 2 rounds of her most recent fight.


    I believe Eye should be the favorite in this fight and we're getting good underdog odds a bit due to recency bias and popularity. Jessy has had the two more higher profile wins against recognizable names while Eye has just won a split decision after going 0-4 previously. Still, Eye at even her worst looks to be a significant step up from the likes of Damm, Rawlings and PVZ. If Eye has figured out how to put the pieces together, Jessy may be in for a rough fight.
    I'm gonna take Eye by decision myself.. I think this one goes the distance.. Both chicks durable...

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  31. #31
    Sanity Check
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    People really think Jessica Eye is winning her fight?

    What is this world coming to? The world is becoming more like a post apocalyptic mad max parody erryday.

    Donald Trump must save us! Oh, Donald, please make MMA betting great again and save people from their sins of betting on fighters like Jessica Eye.





  32. #32
    Teem
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    Eye will try to wrestle f*** every fight she's in now. During her octagon interview in STL she yelled... "Wrestling is the shit!" Eye seemed pumped to finally get a win and that might give her some momentum going into this fight, but I'm taking Clark here to pick Eye apart and get a couple takedowns herself.

  33. #33
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teem View Post
    Eye will try to wrestle f*** every fight she's in now. During her octagon interview in STL she yelled... "Wrestling is the shit!"

    I'm half kidding about people being crazy for choosing Jessica Eye.

    Eye believes she has a "size and weight advantage" moving down to 125 to fight 115'ers like PVZ who passed out unconscious forcing themselves to make that weight.

    There are decent angles for Eye losing this fight.

    #1 Jessica Eye's cardio may not be good @ 125. Eye held Faria's back in round 2 and slowed down visibly afterward. Eye looked visibly tired to me in round 3 despite a lack of scrambles and the type of wrestling which would normally gas someone out.

    #2 Jessica Eye fought an opponent whose previous opponent finished her via sub inside 1 round. Eye not achieving much against someone with suspect jits finished in round 1, could mean her ground game looked overrated in that fight.

    #3 Faria's ground game looked unimpressive and underdeveloped. To me anyways. I'm no expert. She was in survival mode. No counters, no sweeps, no scrambles, no reversals. She may have been fighting to survive, not to win.

    Of course, all of these negatives could align well with Jessica Rose Clarks strengths. Clark has good cardio, a good ground game with good counters, defense and sweeps. All of the things Kalindra Faria lacked.

    I'm not gonna sell everything I own to go all in on JRC.

    There are obvious things some of you might be missing on this fight tho.
    Last edited by Sanity Check; 06-19-18 at 05:47 PM.

  34. #34
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    I'm half kidding about people being crazy for choosing Jessica Eye.

    Eye believes she has a "size and weight advantage" moving down to 125 to fight 115'ers like PVZ who passed out unconscious forcing themselves to make that weight.
    You're getting them confused. Jessica Rose Clark is the former 135'er who has come down to 125 and faced two lower tier 115 girls in Rawlings and PVZ after being unable to hang at 135 even against competition like Pam Sorenson, Pannie Kianzad, and Janay Harding. JRC has gotten better, but she originally lucked her way into the UFC by being a short notice replacement for Jojo Calderwood.

  35. #35
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    You're getting them confused. Jessica Rose Clark is the former 135'er who has come down to 125 and faced two lower tier 115 girls in Rawlings and PVZ after being unable to hang at 135 even against competition like Pam Sorenson, Pannie Kianzad, and Janay Harding. JRC has gotten better, but she originally lucked her way into the UFC by being a short notice replacement for Jojo Calderwood.
    Didnít Eye fight at 135 too?

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