[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FS1, 10:00 pm ET
Jimmie Rivera vs Marlon Moraes
Gregor Gillespie vs Vinc Pichel
Walt Harris vs Daniel Spitz
Jake Ellenberger vs Ben Saunders
Julio Arce vs Daniel Teymur
Sam Alvey vs Gian Villante

FS1 8:00 pm ET
Sijara Eubanks vs Lauren Murphy
Nik Lentz vs Leonardo Santos
Belal Muhammad vs Niko Price
Desmond Green vs Gleison Tibau

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
Jessica Aguilar vs Jodie Esquibel
Johnny Eduardo vs Nathaniel Wood
Jarred Brooks vs Hector Sandoval

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Friday card up next...

[Sanity Check]

Julio Arce vs Daniel Teymur

David Teymur**
Daniel Teymur might be an error.

[Hugo de Naranja]

David Teymur**
Daniel Teymur might be an error.

***No that's his brother. Both Teymur fighters are on this card. Daniel Teymur fought Danny Henry in his first UFC fight.

[HurlSweatPants]

Saunders vs Ellenberger....if you would have told me 5 years ago this matchup would be on a UFC card I would've given you +500. I have been on Killa B auto fade since Sobotta. He is tough as a MF but his chin stays up, all the time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Saunders vs Ellenberger....if you would have told me 5 years ago this matchup would be on a UFC card I would've given you +500. I have been on Killa B auto fade since Sobotta. He is tough as a MF but his chin stays up, all the time.

So chinny these days.

[JIBBBY]

This event got next.. I like the quick turn over.

Ellenberger has been auto fade material for me for a while now.. This fight I'm not so sure about??? Sanders kinda of a can now himself.. Tough can fight to call???

Killer B will bring the fight and probably has a little better chin then Ellenberger.. Still Ellenberger is the fighter 2 years younger and to his credit he fought and got knocked out by some of the best strikers in the sport..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Ellenberger-13068

Pick a can any can?

Slightly leaning Ellenberger and by KO in this one.. Ellenberger still hits hard and most of his wins have came by KO.. Ben Saunders is very hittable in the chin...

UFC Fight Night 131 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Adirondack Bank Center - Utica, New York - FS1
Fri 6/1		1301 Ben Saunders		+145
11:00PM		1302 Jake Ellenberger		-175

[Sanity Check]

The biggest weakness in Ellenberger's game are those mental lapses he has where he freezes up in the middle of fights.

Its almost like he has wartime flashbacks(being a former marine) in the middle of his fights which lead to him being submitted or KO'ed.

Ellenberger was beating Kelvin Gastelum handily. In the middle of the fight Ellenberger froze in a scramble, allowing Gastelum to take his back and get the choke(with no resistance offered on Ellenberger's part IIRC). That was probably the most obvious time where something like that might have happened.

Similar things might have happened the times Ellenberger got KO'ed/TKO'ed. TBH I don't remember 100%.

[Biffsbook]

Without watching tape and off memory I have a few early leans

Rivera is quite possibly the most underrated fighter in the decision and as much as I rate morales I think he takes a decision

Villante could finally get that ko he's been after in his last few fights against alvey who seems like he's been struggling in his last few fights

Acre looked a good prospect in his last fight and could see him winning an easy decision.

Ellenberger vs Saunders is like jibby said, can on can action but I feel ellenbeger should take it by ko

All these are early leans and I'll adjust after watching tape. Does anyone have any idea when the lines will be out?

[JIBBBY]

The biggest weakness in Ellenberger's game are those mental lapses he has where he freezes up in the middle of fights.

Its almost like he has wartime flashbacks(being a former marine) in the middle of his fights which lead to him being submitted or KO'ed.

Ellenberger was beating Kelvin Gastelum handily. In the middle of the fight Ellenberger froze in a scramble, allowing Gastelum to take his back and get the choke(with no resistance offered on Ellenberger's part IIRC). That was probably the most obvious time where something like that might have happened.

Similar things might have happened the times Ellenberger got KO'ed/TKO'ed. TBH I don't remember 100%.

He does laps or gas in fights after looking good early on..





Masvidal really put a beating on him in that fight

[turbozed]

Took Alvey at -130. Think this is as good of a style matchup as possible for him in the LHW division. The only concern is how his power and chin hold up at 205. Prachnio was a small LHW. 20 lbs jump up is nothing to sneeze at. I expect Alvey to be at least 10 lbs lighter than Gian but Alvey should have the sharper boxing by far.

[firekillex]

rivera vs moraes going to be FIREWORKS

[JIBBBY]

Took Alvey at -130. Think this is as good of a style matchup as possible for him in the LHW division. The only concern is how his power and chin hold up at 205. Prachnio was a small LHW. 20 lbs jump up is nothing to sneeze at. I expect Alvey to be at least 10 lbs lighter than Gian but Alvey should have the sharper boxing by far.

Gian Villante is a brut and tough guy that comes forward.. Alvey IDK?? I'm kinda leaning Gian myself.. I'm trying to envision this match up?.. Gian comes forward and lands and Alvey backs up... Alvey connects but doesn't get the knock out in this one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sam-Alvey-35410

I think Gian brings a faster pace as both have pretty good chins.

Good stylistic match up though and something might give in this one if it stays standing which I think it will???. No one will be in full retreat mode.... Giam maybe by decision though as both have tough chins and the volume and pace has to go in favor of Gian... Sam Alvey fights to a slow counter punching pace.

UFC Fight Night 131 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Adirondack Bank Center - Utica, New York - FS1
Fri 6/1		1501 Gian Villante		+120
10:00PM		1502 Sam Alvey		-140

I find it hard to bet on Sam Alvey these days as it's usually either Sammy wins by a stunning KO or loses by decision anyways..

[stonebanks]

Against the clock this week and not much time to studytape as I’ll be travelling to the middle east on Thursday, drinks paid for via Mr Silva on the 129 card!

UK bookmakerscurrently making life difficult as no odds have been released. If anyone canassist with vegas odds it would be appreciated.



SB.

[stonebanks]

Apologies, I believe its above! Thanks

[Biffsbook]

Surprised to see that villante is a dog, which his size, power and athletic advantage he's got to be worth a play. I can see alvey been overly cautious because of this and think villante will dictate the fight.

Does anyone see value in Murphy as a dog?

[turbozed]

Surprised to see that villante is a dog, which his size, power and athletic advantage he's got to be worth a play. I can see alvey been overly cautious because of this and think villante will dictate the fight.

Does anyone see value in Murphy as a dog?

You do realize that Alvey has been asking for this matchup for a while right? Gian is the perfect fight style for Alvey. Only knows how to plod forward and only has power in his right hand. Will not attempt to wrestle. Alvey only knows how to counterstrike guys who come at him. Gian should have significantly slower hands than Alvey. The only negative for Alvey here is the size difference. 20 lbs is a big weight class jump.

[stonebanks]

Just reflecting on some tape, as predictable as Villante is with the overhand right, I don’t think there is any way Alvey can take those shots. Villante for me, more than likely by KO, possibly with a small hedge on alvey points.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just reflecting on some tape, as predictable as Villante is with the overhand right, I don’t think there is any way Alvey can take those shots. Villante for me, more than likely by KO, possibly with a small hedge on alvey points.

Are you mixing up which one is Villante and which one is Alvey?

[stonebanks]

Are you mixing up which one is Villante and which one is Alvey?

I don’t see anything in Alveys arsenal to hurt Vilante, I only see him winning that fight if he out works vilante in the later rounds like Cummings.

[stonebanks]

Surprised to see that villante is a dog, which his size, power and athletic advantage he's got to be worth a play. I can see alvey been overly cautious because of this and think villante will dictate the fight.

Does anyone see value in Murphy as a dog?

Very interesting match up. If Murphy can keep this standing I think she takes it, I think I’ll bookmark this one for later. Still not enough UK betting lines out at the moment to see what’s worth any value.

[Sanity Check]

Does anyone see value in Murphy as a dog?

I dislike Murphy.

On the ultimate fighter, Eddie Alvarez said Lauren Murphy might not have what it takes to make it in the UFC and rather than take it as constructive criticism, Murphy was super offended as if she was going to not sleep for 7 days or nights plotting revenge. I think Murphy has a bad attitude. On top of that she trains out of MMA Lab which could be one of the worst big name MMA gyms in the world.

MMA Lab fighters are good fade material a lot of the time. I haven't kept track of statistics but its possible their win / loss record can be as bad as 4 wins and 12 losses during the times they're doing poorly. Also if you look at some of their fighters like John Moraga, sometimes the only time they have a career resurgence or comeback is when they leave MMA Lab and train out of the UFC performance institute or move to a different gym.

Of course the overall level of competition in woman's MMA is often lower so maybe Murphy has a chance. But there are a few things that are against her.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don’t see anything in Alveys arsenal to hurt Vilante, I only see him winning that fight if he out works vilante in the later rounds like Cummings.

Alvey’s got powerful single strike counters (especially the Check Right Hook) that Villante seems likely to run into. Alvey’s not much of a volume puncher or roundwinner so I think he is more likely to win by finish than decision. On the defensive side, Alvey is extremely durable. He’s been Knocked Out just once in his career and that was against a very heavy hitter in Derek Brunson. I think if Villante wins this one, it is by picking and poking Alvey with distance punches and leg kicks for three rounds, a strategy that Villante is not really known to employ.

[JIBBBY]

I don’t see anything in Alveys arsenal to hurt Vilante, I only see him winning that fight if he out works vilante in the later rounds like Cummings.

ALvey has some pop to his punches, there's a chance he can counter and catch a pressing Vilante.. Drop him maybe.. If Alvey does win and get the KO I see it coming late when Villante is a little gassed and fighting carelessly with his hands down..

I don't think that's gonna happen though, Villante will press forward and just beat Smiling Sam Alveys asss.. The question is does it go the distance though or do we see a knock out? Both guys reasonably durable and can take a shot...

As a dog I think you gotta try Villante myself in this match up...

[firekillex]

not sure why people are talking like Alvey or Villante are some world beaters ???
both are gatekeepers/ middle pack guys... basically a toss up fight

[Shagdogy]

Alvey’s got powerful single strike counters (especially the Check Right Hook) that Villante seems likely to run into. Alvey’s not much of a volume puncher or roundwinner so I think he is more likely to win by finish than decision. On the defensive side, Alvey is extremely durable. He’s been Knocked Out just once in his career and that was against a very heavy hitter in Derek Brunson. I think if Villante wins this one, it is by picking and poking Alvey with distance punches and leg kicks for three rounds, a strategy that Villante is not really known to employ.

That's the problem I have with betting this fight. While Gian gets rocked in his fights, he has a tough chin and is tough to KO. Against Shogun, he was KO'd in a much more high volume fight than Alvey is likely to engage in. If Gian makes it to the bell, of course he has a solid chance since Alvey has so many moments of just complete inactivity.

[Shagdogy]

Turbo, you continue to school me in heads up WMMA fights. What is your read on Aguilar/Esquibel?

I see Aguilar as a very straight line fighter. She cuts almost no angles at all when she's moving forward or retreating, which makes her quite hittable. However, she's serviceable with volume and technique from top position where she's most likely to win IMO.

Esquibel on the other hand has good footwork and MUCH better lateral movement than Aguilar. As long as she avoids the TDs I imagine she will carry a clear edge in the standup over 3 rounds just in terms of strikes landed (don't expect either girl to really do much damage).

I have Esquibel favored by a little bit, which would make her worth a small play. You seeing the same? I also think this fight is pretty much a lock to go the distance. Fight goes to decision, even at -380, seems like a confident parlay piece if you can parlay props.

[stonebanks]

Turbo, you continue to school me in heads up WMMA fights. What is your read on Aguilar/Esquibel?

I see Aguilar as a very straight line fighter. She cuts almost no angles at all when she's moving forward or retreating, which makes her quite hittable. However, she's serviceable with volume and technique from top position where she's most likely to win IMO.

Esquibel on the other hand has good footwork and MUCH better lateral movement than Aguilar. As long as she avoids the TDs I imagine she will carry a clear edge in the standup over 3 rounds just in terms of strikes landed (don't expect either girl to really do much damage).

I have Esquibel favored by a little bit, which would make her worth a small play. You seeing the same? I also think this fight is pretty much a lock to go the distance. Fight goes to decision, even at -380, seems like a confident parlay piece if you can parlay props.

Couldn’t agree more

[strictlypaypal]

Hugo, Jibby, thoughts on main event fellas?

[turbozed]

Turbo, you continue to school me in heads up WMMA fights. What is your read on Aguilar/Esquibel?

I see Aguilar as a very straight line fighter. She cuts almost no angles at all when she's moving forward or retreating, which makes her quite hittable. However, she's serviceable with volume and technique from top position where she's most likely to win IMO.

Esquibel on the other hand has good footwork and MUCH better lateral movement than Aguilar. As long as she avoids the TDs I imagine she will carry a clear edge in the standup over 3 rounds just in terms of strikes landed (don't expect either girl to really do much damage).

I have Esquibel favored by a little bit, which would make her worth a small play. You seeing the same? I also think this fight is pretty much a lock to go the distance. Fight goes to decision, even at -380, seems like a confident parlay piece if you can parlay props.

I'll cap this fight soon and let you know my thoughts.

This matchup is just the type of thing I do well betting on. WMMA, close odds, relatively unknown girls, tape likely too excrutiating to watch for most bettors lol.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, Jibby, thoughts on main event fellas?

Slight lean to Rivera.

[Shagdogy]

Slight lean to Rivera.

Slight lean... but the kind of slight lean where he may just be a little bit better everywhere, which makes it a confident slight lean.

[SmellMyFinger]

moraes - better kicker, slightly more explosive, better pure jiu kitsu, better footwork

rivera - better wrestler, better boxer

cardio and chin are similar

i love this matchup, could make a good argument for both to win this, i don't expect any big line movements leading up to the fight, personally ill stay away from this one

[JC2008]

moraes - better kicker, slightly more explosive, better pure jiu kitsu, better footwork

rivera - better wrestler, better boxer

cardio and chin are similar

i love this matchup, could make a good argument for both to win this, i don't expect any big line movements leading up to the fight, personally ill stay away from this one

We have 12 other fights to deal with before the main event; anyways...

[Shagdogy]

moraes - better kicker, slightly more explosive, better pure jiu kitsu, better footwork

rivera - better wrestler, better boxer

cardio and chin are similar

i love this matchup, could make a good argument for both to win this, i don't expect any big line movements leading up to the fight, personally ill stay away from this one

Better wrestling = he will keep this fight standing, or at least dictate the position.

Better boxing = he will be winning with his hands while on the feet.

IMO Moraes will need to have a significant impact on this fight with his kicking game.