1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman (May 19, 2018)



    FS1, 10:00 pm ET

    Demian Maia vs Kamaru Usman
    Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez
    Jared Cannonier vs Dominick Reyes
    Guido Cannetti vs Diego Rivas
    Andrea Lee vs Veronica Macedo
    Chad Laprise vs Vicnte Luque

    FS2, 8:00 pm ET
    Zak Cummings vs Michel Prazeres
    Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja
    Poliana Botelho vs Syuri Kondo
    Humberto Bandenay vs Gabriel Benitez

    UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
    Enrique Barzola vs Brandon Davis
    Henry Briones vs Frankie Saenz
    Claudio Pulles vs Felipe Silva



    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 05-14-18 at 04:37 PM.

  2. #2
    JIBBBY
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    So this got next.. Hmmmm?

    Damn they couldn't give Maia a more difficult stylistic matchup, damn!! .... Another elite wrestler and extremely hard fighter to take down and put on his back is Usman..

    I think I gotta go against my boy Damian Maia in this one.. He's not getting any younger and I just don't think he can take down Usman with ease.. If it stays standing it's gotta favor Usman....

    Odds are nuts though, one take down and Maia can win though as I can't imagine Usman being very good off his back, Maia will mount and take his back in no time....

    Probably Usman by Decision hedged with Maia by sub will be the call for me if I had to guess..

    UFC Fight Night 129 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Movistar Arena - Santiago, Chile - FS1
    Sat 5/19 1001 Demian Maia +325
    11:30PM 1002 Kamaru Usman -400

    Might even be a chance for the KO win with Usman.. He packs power...



    Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-14-18 at 03:28 PM.

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  3. #3
    Rich Benjamins
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    I got Tatiana Suarez early at -375. Easy money there. Grasso hasn't been great at stopping takedowns. Once it goes to the ground, Suarez will take the round for a 30-27 sweep decision win.

  4. #4
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    I got Tatiana Suarez early at -375. Easy money there. Grasso hasn't been great at stopping takedowns. Once it goes to the ground, Suarez will take the round for a 30-27 sweep decision win.
    Absolutely nuts that fight opened at a pickem -110 a piece.

  5. #5
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Absolutely nuts that fight opened at a pickem -110 a piece.
    OMG it did? Whoever made that line is clueless.

  6. #6
    firekillex
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    Usman bout to retire this boy
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  7. #7
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    Usman bout to retire this boy
    I think Maia probably needs an early submission to win this one.
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  8. #8
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I think Maia probably needs an early submission to win this one.
    unless he pulls off a miracle submission by pulling guard and getting a triangle/armbar/guillotine i see no way he wins...
    less athletic, less power, worse gastank, worse striking , worse wrestling

    id say Usman stops Maia in the 3/4th round after he starts getting tired from shooting those trash takedowns hell get tagged up from an accumulation of strikes and be done ...
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  9. #9
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    unless he pulls off a miracle submission by pulling guard and getting a triangle/armbar/guillotine i see no way he wins...
    less athletic, less power, worse gastank, worse striking , worse wrestling

    id say Usman stops Maia in the 3/4th round after he starts getting tired from shooting those trash takedowns hell get tagged up from an accumulation of strikes and be done ...
    I don't know if I'd pick any WW over Usman rn. Dude is coming for the strap.
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  10. #10
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I don't know if I'd pick any WW over Usman rn. Dude is coming for the strap.
    id like to see him versus Wonderboy/Till winner for the number 1 contender spot that matchup would really gauge where hes at,
    this fight against maia is a stylistic cakewalk for him , hes a much better version of CC and since Tyron will fight the RDA/Colby winner that all could realistically happen

    But i agree Usman has been the darkhorse of 170 for a while now even at 30%
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  11. #11
    JIBBBY
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    Write ups coming in.. MMA MANIA prelims




    170 lbs.: Michel Prazeresvs. Zak Cummings
    Michel Prazeres (24-2) put a 2-2 UFC start behind him to rattle off six straight wins, including an upset of Gilbert Burns and a bonus-winning, north-south choke of Josh Burkman. His recent victory over Des Green marked his third time missing weight in four fights, however, and prompted his return to !elterweight for the first time since 2013.
    “Trator” will give up six inches of height and eight inches of reach to Cummings.
    Though unsuccessful on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17, Zak Cummings (21-5) put together a 6-2 UFC record to emerge as an unexpected Welterweight contender. His last two fights have seen him secure first-round submissions of Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy, the former of whom had not been submitted since 2009.
    This will be his first fight in more than one year thanks to injury.
    Here we have a guy who couldn’t make Lightweight against a guy who has twice failed to make Welterweight, one time by such a huge margin that his opponent refused to fight. These are some right big lads, I tell you what.
    This is honestly a toughie: Prazeres is the more decorated grappler and his hand speed makes up for his stubby arms, but Cummings is a quality pressure fighter who uses his size and power to great effect. It’s worth considering, however, that Prazeres’ wins over Burns and Green are better than anything Cummings has on his resume (none of Cummings’ six UFC wins have come over current members of the roster).
    Prazeres’ superior wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu should be enough to get him the win here, as he’s more than strong enough to physically hold his own against solid Welterweight competition. Cummings has a chance if he properly exploits that monster reach advantage, but the more likely outcome sees Prazeres bully his way inside and grind him down.
    Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision

    125 lbs.:
    Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
    Brandon Moreno (14-4) essentially sprinted his way up the Flyweight ranks, picking up bonus-wining submissions of Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz to earn himself a main event slot. Said opportunity proved too much, too soon, as Sergio Pettis survived an early submission attack to soundly outpoint “The Assassin Baby” in Mexico City.
    Ten of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come via submission.
    After unifying the LFA and RFA titles with a submission of Damacio Page, Alexandre Pantoja (18-3) earned the No. 1 spot on TUF 24, defeating Moreno and Kai Kara-France before suffering an upset loss to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. He went on to defeat Eric Shelton and Neil Seery in the Octagon before losing a competitive decision to Dustin Ortiz in January.
    He replaces Ray Borg, who withdrew to take care of his newborn son, on just under three weeks’ notice.
    Related
    ‘Tough Times Ahead’ For Baby Borg


    Moreno is legit as hell and I have a bad habit of not giving him enough credit, but that Pettis fight was seriously underwhelming. He looked absolutely lost on the feet and, after a strong start, struggled to get his takedowns going against a guy with mediocre takedown defense. Without the element of surprise Moreno had on TUF, I see him struggling quite a bit more here.
    Pantoja has the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place and is markedly superior to “The Assassin Baby” in the stand up. Hard leg kicks, rapid punching combos, and a strong sprawl carry Pantoja to a wider victory than before.
    Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision

    115 lbs.:
    Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
    Poliana Botelho (6-1) took just two years to go from her debut to the XFC Flyweight title, losing only to fellow UFC competitor Viviane Pereira along the way. Her UFC debut wound up being one of the most bizarre in recent memory, as Pearl Gonzalez elected to basically lean on her against the cage for 15 minutes while Botelho landed short punches.
    Five of her six wins have come by knockout.
    Syuri Kondo (6-0) — a decorated professional wrestler — proved her skills were legit with a win over current Rizin standout Kanna Asakura in her pro debut. She ultimately won the Pancrase Strawweight title before scraping past Korean slugger Chan Mi Jeon in Saitama.
    She stands four inches shorter than Botelho at 5’4.”
    I really should come up with a term for “one fighter has the skills to win this but always fails to utilize them properly.” Botelho’s height, reach, and punching power make her a legit threat at 115, but she can be bafflingly lackadaisical in fights. Kondo is anything but; she’s incredibly busy, throwing almost 300 strikes in 15 minutes against Jeon and landing nine per minute.
    Though Kondo’s lack of head movement and predictability with her endless stream of 1-2s limit her potential, she’s so tough and aggressive that she’s a legit threat to the middle of the Strawweight pack. Unless Botelho can crack her chin, Kondo outworks her for a wide decision victory.
    Prediction: Kondo via unanimous decision

    145 lbs.:
    Humberto Bandenay vs. Gabriel Benitez
    Peru’s Humberto Bandenay (14-4) defied massive odds to destroy TUF: “Latin America” 3 winner Martin Bravo in 26 seconds via head kick. This will be his first appearance in nine months, however, as injury and **** issues scrapped fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Steven Peterson.
    He stands a massive 6’1,” five inches taller than Gabriel Benitez (20-6).
    “Moggly” choked out Diego Rivas on TUF: “Latin America” before losing to Leonardo Morales in the semifinals. He entered his last fight on a 1-2 skid, but defied the odds to earn a career-best win over Jason Knight in Fresno.
    Ten of his 16 stoppages have come by submission.
    Bandenay’s got some wicked kicks and solid footwork that would have served him well against the aforementioned Peterson. Benitez, unfortunately, has a much more rounded game than “Ocho,” not to mention quite a bit more experience at the highest levels than the Peruvian upstart. “Moggly” has the skills to win a kickboxing match and some sneaky chokes waiting should Bandenay elect to take it south.
    Bandenay is just 23 years old, towering for a Featherweight, and trains under the venerable Colin Oyama. I fully expect him to stay on the roster for a while. For now, though, Benitez’s experience wins the day in a competitive affair.
    Prediction: Benitez via unanimous decision
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  12. #12
    Sanity Check
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    Anyone surprised by Dominick Reyes being a favorite over Jared Cannonier?
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  13. #13
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Anyone surprised by Dominick Reyes being a favorite over Jared Cannonier?
    - That did catch my attention as well...

  14. #14
    JIBBBY
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    If Maia wins this fight I change my avatar picture back to my boy..

    Line is going nuts for Usman... I've won so much money over the years betting on MAIA.. He's old but one take down and I think he could get Usman in a world of hurt.. He didn't look all that bad against T-wood either..

    Maia sucks against wrestlers though but he has massive MMA experience against Usman, one mistake by Usman and Maia might get this.. I'm waiting at these odds to move more as they are only going one way obviously.. Maia doesn't get knocked out or stopped easily either..

    Gotta think Maia is already trained up to face a wrestler because he just fought T-Wood..

    UFC Fight Night 129 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Movistar Arena - Santiago, Chile - FS1
    Sat 5/19 1001 Demian Maia +425
    11:30PM 1002 Kamaru Usman -550

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  15. #15
    Sato
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    I dont think Usman is going to blow Maia out of there. Maia isnt going to allow that. I also think Maia is Usmans best opponent he has ever faced and lines tend to blow up slightly for undefeated fighters. Gonna have a look at the overs an dec. props once they come out.

    Edit: Usman has one loss but was long time ago. These days he has that undefeated feel to him. Different fighter altogether.
    Last edited by Sato; 05-17-18 at 01:09 AM.

  16. #16
    Teem
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    Had a dream last night Maia KO'd Usman. Bet it.

  17. #17
    SmellMyFinger
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    as much as i envy people who grabbed Suarez at -110, i think i'm going to throw half a unit on grasso at +500, i think the line got a bit too wide for such a one dimensional fighter as suarez

  18. #18
    PaperTrail07
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    Beneitz and Panto

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  19. #19
    PaperTrail07
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    Location of fight prob influenced the line...but a tad, yes
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Anyone surprised by Dominick Reyes being a favorite over Jared Cannonier?

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  20. #20
    Shagdogy
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    Not the most exciting fight but anyone like Cannetti as the dog?

    His command of range seems far superior to Rivasís and I donít see too much grappling in this fight. Rivas had no offense against Quinonez on the feet because he struggled with range and then he was dominated on the mat in his fight before that.

  21. #21
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Write ups coming in.. MMA MANIA prelims




    170 lbs.: Michel Prazeresvs. Zak Cummings
    Michel Prazeres (24-2) put a 2-2 UFC start behind him to rattle off six straight wins, including an upset of Gilbert Burns and a bonus-winning, north-south choke of Josh Burkman. His recent victory over Des Green marked his third time missing weight in four fights, however, and prompted his return to !elterweight for the first time since 2013.
    “Trator” will give up six inches of height and eight inches of reach to Cummings.
    Though unsuccessful on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17, Zak Cummings (21-5) put together a 6-2 UFC record to emerge as an unexpected Welterweight contender. His last two fights have seen him secure first-round submissions of Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy, the former of whom had not been submitted since 2009.
    This will be his first fight in more than one year thanks to injury.
    Here we have a guy who couldn’t make Lightweight against a guy who has twice failed to make Welterweight, one time by such a huge margin that his opponent refused to fight. These are some right big lads, I tell you what.
    This is honestly a toughie: Prazeres is the more decorated grappler and his hand speed makes up for his stubby arms, but Cummings is a quality pressure fighter who uses his size and power to great effect. It’s worth considering, however, that Prazeres’ wins over Burns and Green are better than anything Cummings has on his resume (none of Cummings’ six UFC wins have come over current members of the roster).
    Prazeres’ superior wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu should be enough to get him the win here, as he’s more than strong enough to physically hold his own against solid Welterweight competition. Cummings has a chance if he properly exploits that monster reach advantage, but the more likely outcome sees Prazeres bully his way inside and grind him down.
    Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision

    125 lbs.:
    Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
    Brandon Moreno (14-4) essentially sprinted his way up the Flyweight ranks, picking up bonus-wining submissions of Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz to earn himself a main event slot. Said opportunity proved too much, too soon, as Sergio Pettis survived an early submission attack to soundly outpoint “The Assassin Baby” in Mexico City.
    Ten of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come via submission.
    After unifying the LFA and RFA titles with a submission of Damacio Page, Alexandre Pantoja (18-3) earned the No. 1 spot on TUF 24, defeating Moreno and Kai Kara-France before suffering an upset loss to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. He went on to defeat Eric Shelton and Neil Seery in the Octagon before losing a competitive decision to Dustin Ortiz in January.
    He replaces Ray Borg, who withdrew to take care of his newborn son, on just under three weeks’ notice.
    Related
    ‘Tough Times Ahead’ For Baby Borg


    Moreno is legit as hell and I have a bad habit of not giving him enough credit, but that Pettis fight was seriously underwhelming. He looked absolutely lost on the feet and, after a strong start, struggled to get his takedowns going against a guy with mediocre takedown defense. Without the element of surprise Moreno had on TUF, I see him struggling quite a bit more here.
    Pantoja has the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place and is markedly superior to “The Assassin Baby” in the stand up. Hard leg kicks, rapid punching combos, and a strong sprawl carry Pantoja to a wider victory than before.
    Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision

    115 lbs.:
    Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
    Poliana Botelho (6-1) took just two years to go from her debut to the XFC Flyweight title, losing only to fellow UFC competitor Viviane Pereira along the way. Her UFC debut wound up being one of the most bizarre in recent memory, as Pearl Gonzalez elected to basically lean on her against the cage for 15 minutes while Botelho landed short punches.
    Five of her six wins have come by knockout.
    Syuri Kondo (6-0) — a decorated professional wrestler — proved her skills were legit with a win over current Rizin standout Kanna Asakura in her pro debut. She ultimately won the Pancrase Strawweight title before scraping past Korean slugger Chan Mi Jeon in Saitama.
    She stands four inches shorter than Botelho at 5’4.”
    I really should come up with a term for “one fighter has the skills to win this but always fails to utilize them properly.” Botelho’s height, reach, and punching power make her a legit threat at 115, but she can be bafflingly lackadaisical in fights. Kondo is anything but; she’s incredibly busy, throwing almost 300 strikes in 15 minutes against Jeon and landing nine per minute.
    Though Kondo’s lack of head movement and predictability with her endless stream of 1-2s limit her potential, she’s so tough and aggressive that she’s a legit threat to the middle of the Strawweight pack. Unless Botelho can crack her chin, Kondo outworks her for a wide decision victory.
    Prediction: Kondo via unanimous decision

    145 lbs.:
    Humberto Bandenay vs. Gabriel Benitez
    Peru’s Humberto Bandenay (14-4) defied massive odds to destroy TUF: “Latin America” 3 winner Martin Bravo in 26 seconds via head kick. This will be his first appearance in nine months, however, as injury and **** issues scrapped fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Steven Peterson.
    He stands a massive 6’1,” five inches taller than Gabriel Benitez (20-6).
    “Moggly” choked out Diego Rivas on TUF: “Latin America” before losing to Leonardo Morales in the semifinals. He entered his last fight on a 1-2 skid, but defied the odds to earn a career-best win over Jason Knight in Fresno.
    Ten of his 16 stoppages have come by submission.
    Bandenay’s got some wicked kicks and solid footwork that would have served him well against the aforementioned Peterson. Benitez, unfortunately, has a much more rounded game than “Ocho,” not to mention quite a bit more experience at the highest levels than the Peruvian upstart. “Moggly” has the skills to win a kickboxing match and some sneaky chokes waiting should Bandenay elect to take it south.
    Bandenay is just 23 years old, towering for a Featherweight, and trains under the venerable Colin Oyama. I fully expect him to stay on the roster for a while. For now, though, Benitez’s experience wins the day in a competitive affair.
    Prediction: Benitez via unanimous decision
    Prelims Part 2 -



    145 lbs.:
    Enrique Barzola vs. Brandon Davis

    Enrique Barzola (14-3-1) defeated Horacio Gutierrez in his Octagon debut to win TUF: “Latin America” 2, only to lose a controversial decision to Kyle Bochniak his next time out. He’s since rattled off three straight, including a mild upset of TUF: “Latin America” 1 competitor Gabriel Benitez.
    He will give up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Brandon Davis (9-4).
    “Killer B” defeated Austin Arnett in an excellent slugfest to earn a contract on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series.” Though he lost a decision to Kyle Bochniak in his Octagon debut, he returned less than one month later to out-slug Steven Peterson and earn “Fight of the Night” in the process.
    He has knocked out three pro opponents and submitted another two.
    This has the potential to be the most entertaining fight of the “Prelims” undercard, as both men are more than happy to bring it. Davis in particular is loads of fun, but unfortunately for him, Barzola has the tools to give him just as much grief as Bochniak did. “El Fuerte” is quite good at getting in and out of the pocket, keeping Davis from getting his longer combinations going, and he’s hit 21 takedowns in his last three fights, so any shenanigans from Davis will be punished by a trip to the mat.
    If Davis just had a bit more stopping power, this would be infinitely more intriguing. As is, “Killer B” doesn’t have enough firepower to keep Barzola from picking him apart and manhandling him on the inside. In short, Barzola potshots and slams his way to victory.
    Prediction: Barzola via unanimous decision

    135 lbs.:
    Enrique Briones vs. Frankie Saenz

    Enrique Briones (16-7-1) wound up on the wrong end of an incredible upkick knockout on TUF: “Latin America,” but came back strong with a “Fight of the Night” finish of Guido Cannetti at UFC 180. Things went right back to bad, and “Henry Bure” enters the Octagon on the heels of one-sided losses to Cody Garbrandt, Douglas Andrade and Rani Yahya.
    His stoppage wins are split 8/6 between knockouts and submissions.
    Frankie Saenz (11-4) got off to a red-hot start in UFC, winning three straight and scoring one of the biggest numerical upsets in UFC history over Iuri Alcantara. He went on to lose three straight, including a narrow decision loss to Augusto Mendes that earned “Fight of the Night,” before returning to the win column with an equally narrow decision win over Merab Dvalishvili in Dec. 2017.
    Briones is by no means a bad fighter, but this feels like a gimme for Saenz, who has proven he can at least be competitive against strong Bantamweight competition. He can match Briones’ grit and his wrestling, while not elite, should be more than enough to exploit Briones below average takedown defense.
    Saenz can hold his own or at the very least survive on the feet long enough to open up his grinding clinchwork and takedowns, which will carry him to a wide decision victory.
    Prediction: Saenz via unanimous decision

    155 lbs.:
    Felipe Silva vs. Claudio Puelles

    A first-round knockout of UFC vet Anton Kuivanen brought Felipe Silva (8-1) to the Octagon, where he made an immediate impression by stopping Shane Campbell in 73 seconds. He was a tiny bit less successful against Mairbek Taisumov, who put the Brazilian to sleep with one punch.
    All eight of his stoppage wins have come in the first round.
    Claudio Puelles — representing Team Chuck Liddell on TUF: “Latin America” 3 — fought his way to the finals before suffering a technical knockout loss to Martin Bravo. He’s been out of action since that Nov. 2016 bout, as injury scrapped a planned fight with Sage Northcutt.
    Though he’s just one inch shorter than Silva, he will give up five inches of reach.
    Puelles is a good-sized Lightweight with a wide skillset, but I’m not sure he’s quite UFC-ready yet. He struggled against Bravo’s rudimentary striking offense and his wrestling toolbox doesn’t look all that deep. Silva’s sheer power and lethality in the clinch make this a majorly rough matchup for the Peruvian.
    Puelles is just 22 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop, but Silva and his kickboxing pedigree will give him a rude reminder that there are levels to this. He batters Puelles with clinch knees and body shots for an early finish.
    Prediction: Silva via first-round knockout

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  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Location of fight prob influenced the line...but a tad, yes
    Why did location influence the line?
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  23. #23
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Why did location influence the line?
    HUGO -- are there any fights that you are specifically looking at to make big wagers on now? I love when you post your plays before the fight... Perez prop was awesome last weekend on Fight Pass to kick off the card right on the first fight; but I'm curious to know what you're leaning to now...?

  24. #24
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC2008 View Post
    HUGO -- are there any fights that you are specifically looking at to make big wagers on now? I love when you post your plays before the fight... Perez prop was awesome last weekend on Fight Pass to kick off the card right on the first fight; but I'm curious to know what you're leaning to now...?
    I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.
    Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 05-17-18 at 10:17 PM.
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  25. #25
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Want to see all the props. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.
    - I like it and agree. Thanks.

  26. #26
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Not the most exciting fight but anyone like Cannetti as the dog?

    His command of range seems far superior to Rivas’s and I don’t see too much grappling in this fight. Rivas had no offense against Quinonez on the feet because he struggled with range and then he was dominated on the mat in his fight before that.
    On second thought, this fight might be on to pass on entirely. I always tell myself not to bet on two bad fighters, and it looks like both these dudes can't get out of their own ways.

    Rivas has made no adjustments over the years to figure out how to close distance against length and continues to kickbox by himself until his opponents enter his range. He gets taken down, back taken, mounted, transitioned all over in every fight. He has good grit to fight through deep sub attempts, but he's always getting put in bad spots. Cannetti is the same way. He needs to avoid the mat. He has pretty good TDD when he prioritizes it, but he always either gets overzealous and rushes into grappling exchanges, or has moments where he's caught sleepwalking and gets taken down. Either way, he has a knack for losing fights even if he's winning them up until that point (Briones). He has lost 4 of 5 UFC level fights including TUF.

    Can't trust either guy. Need to avoid. I'm typing this out almost to hold myself accountable, since I think there's value in the line on Cannetti but I need to know better than to trust either one of these crappy fighters.

    Edit: Although if he climbs all the way to +200 I'm betting Cannetti.
    Last edited by Shagdogy; 05-17-18 at 10:40 PM.

  27. #27
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    On second thought, this fight might be on to pass on entirely. I always tell myself not to bet on two bad fighters, and it looks like both these dudes can't get out of their own ways.

    Rivas has made no adjustments over the years to figure out how to close distance against length and continues to kickbox by himself until his opponents enter his range. He gets taken down, back taken, mounted, transitioned all over in every fight. He has good grit to fight through deep sub attempts, but he's always getting put in bad spots. Cannetti is the same way. He needs to avoid the mat. He has pretty good TDD when he prioritizes it, but he always either gets overzealous and rushes into grappling exchanges, or has moments where he's caught sleepwalking and gets taken down. Either way, he has a knack for losing fights even if he's winning them up until that point (Briones). He has lost 4 of 5 UFC level fights including TUF.

    Can't trust either guy. Need to avoid. I'm typing this out almost to hold myself accountable, since I think there's value in the line on Cannetti but I need to know better than to trust either one of these crappy fighters.

    Edit: Although if he climbs all the way to +200 I'm betting Cannetti.
    I think Cannetti is a Kill or Be Killed type of guy. I've got 2.5u on Won't Go Distance (+100).
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  28. #28
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    Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question: First person to answer all three correctly gets 100 BetPoints.

    1. Zak Cummings has 6 UFC wins. How many of the opponents that he beat are still under UFC contract?

    2. What is Vicente Luque's UFC Record? How many finishes does he have in the UFC?

    3. According to UFC.com (via FightMetric), what is Jared Cannonier's Takedown Defense Percentage in the UFC?
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  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.
    Demian Maia vs Kamaru Usman - Welterweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1003 Maia / Usman goes 5 round distance +180
    11:30PM 1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -260
    Sat 5/19 1005 Maia wins inside distance +745
    11:30PM 1006 Not Maia inside distance -1575
    Sat 5/19 1007 Maia wins by 5 round decision +1100
    11:30PM 1008 Not Maia by 5 round decision -2300
    Sat 5/19 1009 Usman wins inside distance -170
    11:30PM 1010 Not Usman inside distance +130
    Sat 5/19 1011 Usman wins by 5 round decision +227
    11:30PM 1012 Not Usman by 5 round decision -307
    Sat 5/19 1013 Maia / Usman draw +10000
    11:30PM 1014 Fight not a draw -30000
    Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1103 Grasso / Suarez goes 3 round distance -230
    11:00PM 1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +170
    Sat 5/19 1105 Grasso wins inside distance +1390
    11:00PM 1106 Not Grasso inside distance -3510
    Sat 5/19 1107 Grasso wins by 3 round decision +675
    11:00PM 1108 Not Grasso by 3 round decision -1425
    Sat 5/19 1109 Suarez wins inside distance +200
    11:00PM 1110 Not Suarez inside distance -280
    Sat 5/19 1111 Suarez wins by 3 round decision -160
    11:00PM 1112 Not Suarez by 3 round decision +120
    Sat 5/19 1113 Grasso / Suarez draw +8500
    11:00PM 1114 Fight not a draw -23000
    Jared Cannonier vs Dominick Reyes - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1203 Cannonier / Reyes goes 3 round distance +115
    10:30PM 1204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -155
    Sat 5/19 1205 Cannonier wins inside distance +645
    10:30PM 1206 Not Cannonier inside distance -1335
    Sat 5/19 1207 Cannonier wins by 3 round decision +325
    10:30PM 1208 Not Cannonier by 3 round decision -475
    Sat 5/19 1209 Reyes wins inside distance -115
    10:30PM 1210 Not Reyes inside distance -125
    Sat 5/19 1211 Reyes wins by 3 round decision +260
    10:30PM 1212 Not Reyes by 3 round decision -380
    Sat 5/19 1213 Cannonier / Reyes draw +8000
    10:30PM 1214 Fight not a draw -21500
    Guido Cannetti vs Diego Rivas - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1303 Cannetti / Rivas goes 3 round distance -110
    10:00PM 1304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -130
    Sat 5/19 1305 Cannetti wins inside distance +312
    10:00PM 1306 Not Cannetti inside distance -435
    Sat 5/19 1307 Cannetti wins by 3 round decision +385
    10:00PM 1308 Not Cannetti by 3 round decision -585
    Sat 5/19 1309 Rivas wins inside distance +180
    10:00PM 1310 Not Rivas inside distance -260
    Sat 5/19 1311 Rivas wins by 3 round decision +196
    10:00PM 1312 Not Rivas by 3 round decision -276
    Sat 5/19 1313 Cannetti / Rivas draw +7500
    10:00PM 1314 Fight not a draw -20000
    Veronica Macedo vs Andrea Lee - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1403 Macedo / Lee goes 3 round distance -120
    9:30PM 1404 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -120
    Sat 5/19 1405 Macedo wins inside distance +615
    9:30PM 1406 Not Macedo inside distance -1245
    Sat 5/19 1407 Macedo wins by 3 round decision +420
    9:30PM 1408 Not Macedo by 3 round decision -650
    Sat 5/19 1409 Lee wins inside distance +120
    9:30PM 1410 Not Lee inside distance -160
    Sat 5/19 1411 Lee wins by 3 round decision +169
    9:30PM 1412 Not Lee by 3 round decision -227
    Sat 5/19 1413 Macedo / Lee draw +7500
    9:30PM 1414 Fight not a draw -20000
    Chad Laprise vs Vicente Luque - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1503 Laprise / Luque goes 3 round distance +120
    9:00PM 1504 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -160
    Sat 5/19 1505 Laprise wins inside distance +445
    9:00PM 1506 Not Laprise inside distance -735
    Sat 5/19 1507 Laprise wins by 3 round decision +350
    9:00PM 1508 Not Laprise by 3 round decision -530
    Sat 5/19 1509 Luque wins inside distance +110
    9:00PM 1510 Not Luque inside distance -150
    Sat 5/19 1511 Luque wins by 3 round decision +285
    9:00PM 1512 Not Luque by 3 round decision -405
    Sat 5/19 1513 Laprise / Luque draw +8000
    9:00PM 1514 Fight not a draw -21500
    Zak Cummings vs Michel Prazeres - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1603 Cummings / Prazeres goes 3 rd distance -160
    8:30PM 1604 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +120
    Sat 5/19 1605 Cummings wins inside distance +325
    8:30PM 1606 Not Cummings inside distance -475
    Sat 5/19 1607 Cummings wins by 3 round decision +167
    8:30PM 1608 Not Cummings by 3 round decision -222
    Sat 5/19 1609 Prazeres wins inside distance +305
    8:30PM 1610 Not Prazeres inside distance -425
    Sat 5/19 1611 Prazeres wins by 3 round decision +265
    8:30PM 1612 Not Prazeres by 3 round decision -385
    Sat 5/19 1613 Cummings / Prazeres draw +7000
    8:30PM 1614 Fight not a draw -18500
    Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1703 Pantoja / Moreno goes 3 round distance -210
    8:00PM 1704 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +160
    Sat 5/19 1705 Pantoja wins inside distance +280
    8:00PM 1706 Not Pantoja inside distance -400
    Sat 5/19 1707 Pantoja wins by 3 round decision +190
    8:00PM 1708 Not Pantoja by 3 round decision -270
    Sat 5/19 1709 Moreno wins inside distance +470
    8:00PM 1710 Not Moreno inside distance -810
    Sat 5/19 1711 Moreno wins by 3 round decision +170
    8:00PM 1712 Not Moreno by 3 round decision -230
    Sat 5/19 1713 Pantoja / Moreno draw +6500
    8:00PM 1714 Fight not a draw -16500
    Syuri Kondo vs Poliana Botelho - Strawweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1803 Kondo / Botelho goes 3 round distance -195
    7:30PM 1804 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +155
    Sat 5/19 1805 Kondo wins inside distance +750
    7:30PM 1806 Not Kondo inside distance -1580
    Sat 5/19 1807 Kondo wins by 3 round decision +183
    7:30PM 1808 Not Kondo by 3 round decision -263
    Sat 5/19 1809 Botelho wins inside distance +211
    7:30PM 1810 Not Botelho inside distance -291
    Sat 5/19 1811 Botelho wins by 3 round decision +178
    7:30PM 1812 Not Botelho by 3 round decision -252
    Sat 5/19 1813 Kondo / Botelho draw +6500
    7:30PM 1814 Fight not a draw -16500
    Gabriel Benitez vs Humberto Bandenay - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 1903 Benitez / Bandenay goes 3 round distance +110
    7:00PM 1904 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -150
    Sat 5/19 1905 Benitez wins inside distance +134
    7:00PM 1906 Not Benitez inside distance -174
    Sat 5/19 1907 Benitez wins by 3 round decision +210
    7:00PM 1908 Not Benitez by 3 round decision -290
    Sat 5/19 1909 Bandenay wins inside distance +430
    7:00PM 1910 Not Bandenay inside distance -690
    Sat 5/19 1911 Bandenay wins by 3 round decision +380
    7:00PM 1912 Not Bandenay by 3 round decision -570
    Sat 5/19 1913 Benitez / Bandenay draw +8000
    7:00PM 1914 Fight not a draw -21500
    Brandon Davis vs Enrique Barzola - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 2003 Davis / Barzola goes 3 round distance -210
    6:30PM 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +160
    Sat 5/19 2005 Davis wins inside distance +490
    6:30PM 2006 Not Davis inside distance -870
    Sat 5/19 2007 Davis wins by 3 round decision +330
    6:30PM 2008 Not Davis by 3 round decision -490
    Sat 5/19 2009 Barzola wins inside distance +290
    6:30PM 2010 Not Barzola inside distance -410
    Sat 5/19 2011 Barzola wins by 3 round decision -120
    6:30PM 2012 Not Barzola by 3 round decision -120
    Sat 5/19 2013 Davis / Barzola draw +7000
    6:30PM 2014 Fight not a draw -18500
    Enrique Briones vs Frankie Saenz - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 2103 Briones / Saenz goes 3 round distance -260
    6:00PM 2104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +180
    Sat 5/19 2105 Briones wins inside distance +445
    6:00PM 2106 Not Briones inside distance -735
    Sat 5/19 2107 Briones wins by 3 round decision +590
    6:00PM 2108 Not Briones by 3 round decision -1170
    Sat 5/19 2109 Saenz wins inside distance +400
    6:00PM 2110 Not Saenz inside distance -600
    Sat 5/19 2111 Saenz wins by 3 round decision -155
    6:00PM 2112 Not Saenz by 3 round decision +115
    Sat 5/19 2113 Briones / Saenz draw +7500
    6:00PM 2114 Fight not a draw -20000
    Claudio Puelles vs Felipe Silva - Lightweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 129
    Sat 5/19 2203 Puelles / Silva goes 3 round distance +170
    5:30PM 2204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -230
    Sat 5/19 2205 Puelles wins inside distance +444
    5:30PM 2206 Not Puelles inside distance -730
    Sat 5/19 2207 Puelles wins by 3 round decision +600
    5:30PM 2208 Not Puelles by 3 round decision -1200
    Sat 5/19 2209 Silva wins inside distance -140
    5:30PM 2210 Not Silva inside distance +100
    Sat 5/19 2211 Silva wins by 3 round decision +280
    5:30PM 2212 Not Silva by 3 round decision -400
    Sat 5/19 2213 Puelles / Silva draw +9000
    5:30PM 2214 Fight not a draw -25000

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  30. #30
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Thanks for the post Jibs but they still don't have the Full 20 Props out for any of the fights.
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  31. #31
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Thanks for the post Jibs but they still don't have the Full 20 Props out for any of the fights.
    Oh I know, these came out and just thought to copy and show... The rest of the props and odds should be out tomorrow I'd think or very early Saturday morning...

    I'm on it.. Trying to get a jump on it this time around as I do see lines moving aggressively with this event already in a few fights..

    I'm starting to like just the basic props these days like which I copied and pasted above.. Like the ITD props and Fight won't go the distance.. Gives you a higher probability to win over just a KO, SUB or Round Finishing prop.. You give up some value but your probability of hitting becomes greater.. It does always depend on the odds variations between props though.. The value on those individual SUB, KO and ROUND finishing props do get very appealing though.
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-17-18 at 11:58 PM.

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  32. #32
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question: First person to answer all three correctly gets 100 BetPoints.

    1. Zak Cummings has 6 UFC wins. How many of the opponents that he beat are still under UFC contract?

    2. What is Vicente Luque's UFC Record? How many finishes does he have in the UFC?

    3. According to UFC.com (via FightMetric), what is Jared Cannonier's Takedown Defense Percentage in the UFC?
    1. 2 out of 6 still in the UFC : Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy
    2. 5-2 UFC record with all 5 finishes
    3. TD Def.: 27% according to fight metric
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave firekillex 100 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  33. #33
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    1. 2 out of 6 still in the UFC : Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy
    2. 5-2 UFC record with all 5 finishes
    3. TD Def.: 27% according to fight metric
    We have a winner. Good job Fire!
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  34. #34
    firekillex
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    i remember nathan coy from that TUF series ATT vs Blackzilians i think it was

    anybody watching this season?
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  35. #35
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.
    Not worried about the size difference or Prazares' age?

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