1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
    THE_LOCKSMITH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-25-08
    Posts: 7,237
    Betpoints: 5218

    UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington (May 12, 2018)



    Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
    Amanda Nunes vs Raquel Pennington (for bantamweight title)
    Kelvin Gastelum vs Ronaldo Souza
    Amanda Cooper vs Mackenzie Dern
    Brain Kelleher vs John Lineker
    Vitor Belfort vs Lyoto Machida

    FX 8:00 pm ET
    Cezar Ferreira vs Karl Roberson
    Junior Albini vs Aleksei Oleinik
    Nick Hein vs Davi Ramos
    Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Sean Strickland

    UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
    Sultan Aliev Warlley Alves
    Jack Hermansson vs Thales Leites
    Ramazan Emeev vs Alberto Mina



    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave THE_LOCKSMITH 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Kind of underwhelming for a PPV.

  3. #3
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    The fans in the comment section of promo video on YouTube are mad cause the title says "stacked"

    LOL

  4. #4
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    some good fights....PPV I think NOT.....lol....Joker Vs Leites looks interesting...

  5. #5
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 6,420

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Kind of underwhelming for a PPV.
    last weeks free card was better IMO
    cant see how this wont be a bottom 3 PPV viewing of the year

  6. #6
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,061
    Betpoints: 11802

    Long wait..

    Kinda like Kevin Gas if he can make weight.. He's a good wrestler and might be able to defend the take downs and get the better of the aging Jacre standing..

    This is a good card.. Fade the oldies like Vitor... Machida knocks him out even though he is kinda washed up and old now.. Machida will pick Vitor apart standing.

  7. #7
    spurginobili
    Llano Estacado
    spurginobili's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-09-09
    Posts: 3,065
    Betpoints: 20433

    Can Pennington survive 5 rounds with Nunes? She's only been finished once in 14 fights & never been KO'd

  8. #8
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 6,420

    Quote Originally Posted by spurginobili View Post
    Can Pennington survive 5 rounds with Nunes? She's only been finished once in 14 fights & never been KO'd
    no... no she cant

  9. #9
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    Keep in mind card is in Brazil when capping Brazilian vs non-Brazilian.


    article_0_07_A5_C45_C000005_DC_110_634x4  25
    Last edited by Thrilla; 05-02-18 at 05:18 PM.

  10. #10
    Teem
    Teem's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-11-17
    Posts: 343
    Betpoints: 3534

    Has anyone here seen that view from there? ^ ... Might have to do that one day.

  11. #11
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 25,799
    Betpoints: 5354

    Got to take jacare

  12. #12
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Keep in mind card is in Brazil when capping Brazilian vs non-Brazilian.


    article_0_07_A5_C45_C000005_DC_110_634x4  25
    I get so annoyed with these cards because I always find myself slightly favoring the non Brazilian and then asking “but how much exactly does the destination shift the odds?”

  13. #13
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Who is picking Gastelum? I can’t forget how Weidman just bullied him and I have to imagine the pure squeeze of having Jacare grab you and on top of you is much more than Weidman.

    If you’re on Gas, then you’re looking at Whittaker/Jacare as the most relevant fight for how this one plays out?
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Shagdogy 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  14. #14
    Sirius
    Sirius's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-03-13
    Posts: 173
    Betpoints: 612

    I've always felt that Gastelum may have gifted Chris that win when he should have ended his UFC career...he fked up huge there, lame weakened Bisping win, now he gets Jacare in Brazil...tall task.

    Souza

  15. #15
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Enjoyed the break but I'm ready to get back to it.

  16. #16
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711


  17. #17
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Think Pennington is actually live here. (+650) here is crazy.

  18. #18
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Think Pennington is actually live here. (+650) here is crazy.
    I agree with you. The prices are absolutely absurd. Who the hell is betting Nunes up to -1000?

  19. #19
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    ↑↑↑

    Did you watch the Timeline video by MMA Fighting?

    Find those very relaxing with the female narrator and chilling background music.
    Last edited by Thrilla; 05-07-18 at 09:34 PM.

  20. #20
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    Pennington talking about her injury, back in december 2017.


  21. #21
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 22,285
    Betpoints: 22119

    I can’t imagine the Belford/Machida fight being anything but awful. Most Machida fights are boring and every Vitor fight is. If Machida doesn’t throw a punch there may be no punches thrown at all. Machida has taken some risk in the latter part of his career and Vitor does nothing. His last fight against Nate was flat out brutal. Not even worth risking a penny on this unless you take Machida.

  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    I can’t imagine the Belford/Machida fight being anything but awful. Most Machida fights are boring and every Vitor fight is. If Machida doesn’t throw a punch there may be no punches thrown at all. Machida has taken some risk in the latter part of his career and Vitor does nothing. His last fight against Nate was flat out brutal. Not even worth risking a penny on this unless you take Machida.
    Why would anyone lay (-270) on Machida?

  23. #23
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 22,285
    Betpoints: 22119

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Why would anyone lay (-270) on Machida?
    They shouldn’t.

  24. #24
    SmellMyFinger
    SmellMyFinger's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-15-18
    Posts: 117
    Betpoints: 3316

    anyone else agree that the liniker ML is getting to be unbettable ? initially when i saw the matchup i was thinking to use liniker as a parlay leg with elizu dos santos but the more i think about it i don't see much value in it, and only and added variable to a parlay ...

  25. #25
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    If it isn't worth a single bet, it certainly isn't worth a parlay bet.

    Take your time and think about it. That is....if you understand the concept of value.

  26. #26
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Think Pennington is actually live here. (+650) here is crazy.

    Fo sho. I think +650 is the max here. I'd give +650 to Pennington vs Cyborg.

    Against Nunes it's a no brainer.

  27. #27
    Sanity Check
    A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships
    Sanity Check's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-13
    Posts: 10,972
    Betpoints: 12959

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Why would anyone lay (-270) on Machida?
    *Looks guilty*

    I was considering it.

    Vitor paces himself and looks to have lost his one shot KO power.

    Lyoto could outwork him. Lyoto looks overall healthier going into it.

  28. #28
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Long breaks kill my momentum. Always have a hard time getting up for the first card back. Wish I was getting stronger leans but I just don’t see too much on this card in terms of ML’s and o/u’s, and I’ve been trying to stay off props.

  29. #29
    SmellMyFinger
    SmellMyFinger's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-15-18
    Posts: 117
    Betpoints: 3316

    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    If it isn't worth a single bet, it certainly isn't worth a parlay bet.

    Take your time and think about it. That is....if you understand the concept of value.
    as much as i appreciate your smug remark about the concept of value, i think i was clear enough that i thought the ml line is unbeatable and my mention of the parlay was just to point out how i would have used the liniker bet. thanks for the advice, curious to see if you have any smug remarks about the line on dos santos

  30. #30
    Sanity Check
    A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships
    Sanity Check's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-13
    Posts: 10,972
    Betpoints: 12959

    Quote Originally Posted by SmellMyFinger View Post
    anyone else agree that the liniker ML is getting to be unbettable ? initially when i saw the matchup i was thinking to use liniker as a parlay leg with elizu dos santos but the more i think about it i don't see much value in it, and only and added variable to a parlay ...
    Lineker would probably win a kickboxing battle.

    Kelleher has a very good guillotine though. If he gets a hold of Lineker's neck, he could easily pull teh upset.

  31. #31
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,811
    Betpoints: 17711

    Quote Originally Posted by SmellMyFinger View Post
    as much as i appreciate your smug remark about the concept of value, i think i was clear enough that i thought the ml line is unbeatable and my mention of the parlay was just to point out how i would have used the liniker bet. thanks for the advice, curious to see if you have any smug remarks about the line on dos santos

    Smug? My new avatar already trolling people.



    I didn't read your post thoroughly. Was in a rush. You do!...know how it works... My bad if I came over too personal.

    It's just that there has been posters in the past here that think that these huge favourites are only valuable in parlays. They tell themselfs hey this is a bad number but if I parlay it with multiple fights it becomes a better number. Basically beginners stuff.

    My post was to give advise to the general public, nothing personal to you. As I felt the need to help. No smug here. Although I do consider myself the greatest sportsbettor in history.


  32. #32
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Lineker would probably win a kickboxing battle.

    Kelleher has a very good guillotine though. If he gets a hold of Lineker's neck, he could easily pull teh upset.
    He has one of the best, just not sure how he gets it on Lineker? Kelleher uses that guillotine when he gets taken down and is on bottom, or as a counter to TD attempts to work immediate sweeps. Is Lineker going to attempt a TD? Doubt it.

    Kelleher uses pressure and volume to force people to shoot just to get a break from the pressure (see Alcantara), but Lineker’s response to the pressure is to plant his feet and throw HEAVY shots back at you. He won’t panic wrestle. Neither guy has ever been KO’d and they both fight like it, but I think Lineker could end Boom’s streak here.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Shagdogy 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  33. #33
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,061
    Betpoints: 11802

    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Keep in mind card is in Brazil when capping Brazilian vs non-Brazilian.


    article_0_07_A5_C45_C000005_DC_110_634x4  25
    True that Thrilla...

    Just starting to cap this card now.. Will post up MMAMANIA write ups tomorrow...

  34. #34
    Sanity Check
    A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships
    Sanity Check's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-13
    Posts: 10,972
    Betpoints: 12959

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    He has one of the best, just not sure how he gets it on Lineker? Kelleher uses that guillotine when he gets taken down and is on bottom, or as a counter to TD attempts to work immediate sweeps. Is Lineker going to attempt a TD? Doubt it.

    Kelleher uses pressure and volume to force people to shoot just to get a break from the pressure (see Alcantara), but Lineker’s response to the pressure is to plant his feet and throw HEAVY shots back at you. He won’t panic wrestle. Neither guy has ever been KO’d and they both fight like it, but I think Lineker could end Boom’s streak here.
    There is such a thing as a "standing guillotine" or a guillotine via pulling guard. It doesn't have to be locked in off a takedown attempt. Look at how Brian Ortega finished Cub Swanson.

    Anyways if some of you are this cocky about it. I had better not see any sub hedges on Kelleher.

    TJ Dillashaw had a lot of success wrestling/grappling Lineker. There's always a small chance Kelleher called out Linker hoping to expose the same flaws that TJ did.

  35. #35
    Teem
    Teem's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-11-17
    Posts: 343
    Betpoints: 3534

    Kelleher and Lineker will be clubbing each other. Gonna be a fun one.

1234 ... Last
Top