1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje (April 14, 2018)



    FOX 8:00 pm ET
    Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje
    Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
    Carlos Condit vs Alex Oliveira
    Cortney Casey vs Michelle Waterson

    FOX 6:00 pm ET
    Tim Boetsch vs Antonio Carlos Junior
    Ricky Rainey vs Muslim Salikhov
    John Moraga vs Wilson Reis
    Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares

    UFC Fight Pass 3:30 pm ET
    Gilbert Burns vs Dan Moret
    Shana Dobson vs Lauren Mueller
    Dhiego Lima vs Yushin Okami
    Arjan Bhullar vs Adam Wieczorek
    Matthew Lopez vs Alejandro Perez
    Patrick Williams vs Luke Sanders



    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 04-11-18 at 05:56 PM.
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  2. #2
    PaperTrail07
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    Nice to see Yushin and Lima in there.....Fight pass main event ? lol
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  3. #3
    Shagdogy
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    Anyone that got Bhullar at -150 SCORED. Damn that was off.

  4. #4
    Shagdogy
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    Turbo, Iím gonna be lookin for your thoughts on Mueller/Dobson. Mueller opened -190 and was bet all the way down to dog real quick. Not sure I agree with that at all. She looked excellent in her DWTNCS fight on very short notice and she will have a full camp and be down at her normal fight weight for this one.

    I need to do more tape. Thereís not a lot of quality in the opponents of either girl except for Dobsonís TUF experience where she lost to both Roxanne and Nicco so itís hard to say sheís in that category.

  5. #5
    TPowell
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    I hit jotko at the opener and have a breakdown up here.

    http://cappedsports.com/articles/1878/jotko-vs-tavares

  6. #6
    TPowell
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    I taped bhullar but missed the opener. Think the over and maybe him by decision could still be ripe

  7. #7
    Hugo de Naranja
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    14 scheduled fights all right!
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  8. #8
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Turbo, I’m gonna be lookin for your thoughts on Mueller/Dobson. Mueller opened -190 and was bet all the way down to dog real quick. Not sure I agree with that at all. She looked excellent in her DWTNCS fight on very short notice and she will have a full camp and be down at her normal fight weight for this one.

    I need to do more tape. There’s not a lot of quality in the opponents of either girl except for Dobson’s TUF experience where she lost to both Roxanne and Nicco so it’s hard to say she’s in that category.
    Scratch that... looks like this will be her first fight at 125. Weight cut something to watch.

    Edit: Well... tapology says she's fought 135 throughout, but other articles say 125 is normal fight weight. I donno.
    Last edited by Shagdogy; 04-09-18 at 11:29 PM.

  9. #9
    firekillex
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    big bet on porier... Gaethje is an absolute beast and tough as hell
    but Porier is just the better mixed martial artist... no doubt Gaethje can KO anybody and his kicks / tenacity are nasty but i think Porier can stick and move and use his better skills to win this matchup by finish

    Porier vs Ferguson next would be a huge sleeper matchup
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  10. #10
    richie360
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    I think Poirer gets it done early. Justin is already on the decline I believe. His fighting style is incredibley exciting but you canít have war after war without it taking its toll.

  11. #11
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    big bet on porier... Gaethje is an absolute beast and tough as hell
    but Porier is just the better mixed martial artist... no doubt Gaethje can KO anybody and his kicks / tenacity are nasty but i think Porier can stick and move and use his better skills to win this matchup by finish

    Porier vs Ferguson next would be a huge sleeper matchup
    I love Gaethje but I'm with you on this one.
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  12. #12
    firekillex
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    Gaethje will be a top 10 guy in the most stacked division in the UFC imo which a great feat but the style he imposes just isnt sustainable to be a champion... guy is the most exciting fighter in MMA and he always has a shot at knocking a guy dead, but if Porier can withstand the first couple barrages i think his skill will take over and hell get a round 3/4 finish ..... Gaethje training his wrestling and saying hell blast some doubles on UFC Countdown to change up his game a bit so his opponent stays guessing, but Porier is a beast on the ground so im not even sure thatll help him out here... Porier is my darkhorse of the division right now , a ton of people sleeping on that guy... his chin always scares me a bit , but since moving up to 55 his chin looks better , -120/-140 range is a steal imo
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  13. #13
    rsynweap84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    14 scheduled fights all right!
    As long as McFukit don't crash the party, but am kinda wonderin' bout that whole business...somethin just ain't right.

    Very excited to see Adesanya again! I love me boy Gathje...but not feeling good bout his facetankin' strikes while throwin' his own method...didn't end well against Alvarez...not surprisingly. At least there is little question to a main event finish

  14. #14
    rsynweap84
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    big bet on porier... Gaethje is an absolute beast and tough as hell
    but Porier is just the better mixed martial artist... no doubt Gaethje can KO anybody and his kicks / tenacity are nasty but i think Porier can stick and move and use his better skills to win this matchup by finish

    Porier vs Ferguson next would be a huge sleeper matchup
    Just can't see face-tankin' shots from someone like Porier ending well... It's not like Gathje can't add a lil' defense(ANYATALL!!!), he just don't wanna...

    492958476-1 4/10/18 7:01am $100.00 $107.00 Open 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 4/14/18 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1009 Poirier wins inside distance +107* vs Not Poirier inside distance

  15. #15
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    agree with you all on Poirier KO over Gaethje.

    Poirier the more calculated and technical fighter against the blood thirsty zombie ...love Gaethje but think this is a bad matchup for him.

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  16. #16
    TPowell
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    Hard for me to trust Dustin in a war either. His strike defense isn't great and we know his chin can be tested and cracked even at 155. I'll be passing on this fight for sure. I may toss something on fight doesn't start round 4/5 or something as I don't see how this fight lasts

  17. #17
    TPowell
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    Lot of shaky favorites on this card with Carlos Jr and Sanders both laying pretty good juice. I could see someone paying for Carlos Jr -3.5 at closer to even money but 4 on 1 on Luke against a guy with some power seems like a bad idea. He's dominated the last two fights he's been in and then got flash finished (by sub and by KO). Williams is super old and not worth a play outside of maybe by TKO at +800 or so. Same for Boetsch really. Its TKO or nothing for him here. I plan on definitely taping the two women fights on this card, as well as the Lopez fight

  18. #18
    Richard Clock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Hard for me to trust Dustin in a war either. His strike defense isn't great and we know his chin can be tested and cracked even at 155. I'll be passing on this fight for sure. I may toss something on fight doesn't start round 4/5 or something as I don't see how this fight lasts
    I agree with you on this. We have seen a lot of earlier finishes from Dustin recently. I don't necessarily think Poirier has questionable cardio, but I think Justin MAY be able to make this fight close and even outlast Dustin if he is able to drag this fight into the later rounds and make this an ugly scrap. However, Justin may be at a point where the level of his competition is too high to sustain success fighting in this style. Poirier is as proven as they come and is still only 29, but has been in some wars himself. I don't have a strong lean either way, perhaps further research will clarify things.

  19. #19
    TPowell
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    Second official play is in

    Bhullar FGTD at -110

    Im leaning towards Lopez ml and the fgtd there as well. Hopefully I can tape it before it balloons

  20. #20
    TPowell
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    When you look at it, Perez should hdve lost his last 3 bouts potentially and was 2-0-1 in them. On the flip, Lopez ran into elite asuncao and then elite on the ground Yahya in his debut that neutralized him. I think he has a huge edge on the ground and I don't see how he struggles taking Perez down. All depends on how well he can control him imo

  21. #21
    PaperTrail07
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    UFC Fighting
    Selection : D. Poirier 4/14/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -140 for Game

    UFC Fighting
    Selection : I. Adesanya 4/14/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -270 for Game

    UFC Fighting
    Selection : A. Carlos Jr 4/14/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -280 for Game

    UFC Fighting
    Selection : Dh. Lima 4/14/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -110 for Game

    I would EXPECT a well prepared Lima here....
    Parlay @ 5:1
    Straight bet all but ACJ....
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  22. #22
    WolfTicketDealer
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    I think people are forgetting how easily Dustin can be dragged into a war. Will be a fun fight but I don't think Dustin's chin will hold up. Gaethje's pressure will make it difficult for Poirier to stick and move his way to a decision. Can anyone provide a fight of Gaethje's where he didn't dictate the pace? Maybe Alvarez? (I was at that fight and have yet to rewatch, though I've seen Gaethje's fight against MJ and some of his WSOF fights). I also think Gaethje's leg kicks will give Poirier problems (a la Jim Miller against Poirier, IIRC).

    Should be a fun scrap, but I'll be on Gaethje here.

  23. #23
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Lot of shaky favorites on this card with Carlos Jr and Sanders both laying pretty good juice. I could see someone paying for Carlos Jr -3.5 at closer to even money but 4 on 1 on Luke against a guy with some power seems like a bad idea. He's dominated the last two fights he's been in and then got flash finished (by sub and by KO). Williams is super old and not worth a play outside of maybe by TKO at +800 or so. Same for Boetsch really. Its TKO or nothing for him here. I plan on definitely taping the two women fights on this card, as well as the Lopez fight
    Patrick Williams has the worst gas tank in the UFC. Highly unlikely it goes the distance, that's the bet to make in that fight IMO.
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  24. #24
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Under might be in play too
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  25. #25
    UncleChael
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    Lol when everyone takes Mj, I take Gaethje. When people take Gaethje, I take eddie. When people take Poirier.. I will take Justin Gaethje.

  26. #26
    JIBBBY
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    Very good card and I'm looking forward to it.. Fading Okami for sure, his best MMA days are behind him...

    I'm thinking Dustin P will have the technical striking advantage over Justin Gathje.. I don't see DP standing a banging it out with Justin that's for sure.. Might be a tough fight for Justin to win, probably gonna KO or bust for him...

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  27. #27
    Sanity Check
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    Best scenario: Gaethje vs Poirier ends in a draw.

    I don't want to hear Gaethje "where's my equal" if he wins.

    And if Poirier wins, I don't want to hear the eye roll things that come out of his mouth, either.



    Those two definitely deserve each other.

  28. #28
    UncleChael
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    Justin Gaethje's going to eat that boy alive!!!

  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    Justin Gaethje's going to eat that boy alive!!!
    5 round fight, doubt it goes the distance.. Someone probably gets slept in this one...

    KO props not out yet...

    1005 Gaethje wins inside distance +141

    1009 Poirier wins inside distance -115

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  30. #30
    TPowell
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    Wow very unimpressed with Alejandro Perez. If I see decent things out of Lopez this becomes a play

  31. #31
    TPowell
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    In that Souk fight, Perez gets dropped 3 times and the majority were him throwing naked leg kicks and Souk dropping him with a left jab. Watching Lopez, he does NOT check leg kicks at all due to his wide stance on the feet but he returns fire win a TON of ill intent. With how high Perez's chin is during those naked leg kicks, I wouldn't be surprised if Lopez drops him and finishes him. On the other side, I don't see how Perez can finish this fight. Lopez is too good of a scrambler to get subbed against an average at best guy on the ground and on the feet, Perez doesn't offer any power really.

  32. #32
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    When you look at it, Perez should hdve lost his last 3 bouts potentially and was 2-0-1 in them. On the flip, Lopez ran into elite asuncao and then elite on the ground Yahya in his debut that neutralized him. I think he has a huge edge on the ground and I don't see how he struggles taking Perez down. All depends on how well he can control him imo
    About to tape this one, but I have the same thoughts in my head going in. I've been a fan of Lopez and have always felt like Perez squeeks by without being all that good.

  33. #33
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    In that Souk fight, Perez gets dropped 3 times and the majority were him throwing naked leg kicks and Souk dropping him with a left jab. Watching Lopez, he does NOT check leg kicks at all due to his wide stance on the feet but he returns fire win a TON of ill intent. With how high Perez's chin is during those naked leg kicks, I wouldn't be surprised if Lopez drops him and finishes him. On the other side, I don't see how Perez can finish this fight. Lopez is too good of a scrambler to get subbed against an average at best guy on the ground and on the feet, Perez doesn't offer any power really.
    I've never been able to unsee Perez getting dropped 3 times by stiff jabs. Never. No matter what he does going forward I will probably never be able to fully believe in him. I hope he loses this fight so I can get this monkey off my back and not have to keep doubting if he really is good.

  34. #34
    TPowell
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    Only have time to tape the Mueller half of her fight but in her last fight she looked good. Crazy short notice and she comes out guns blazing aggressive as hell striking and in the clinch delivering vicious knees. She looks like she has a finish so many times in this fight with those knees and strikes against the cage. She slows down in round two and she gets plodding (she is when not flurrying) but she still flurries enough to win the round according to the judges and then she goes nuts in the last 1:30 of the last round and almost finishes her multiple times again. That fight was at 135 and she looked very good strength wise. Cutting down to 125 should make her an absolute powerhouse physically but I'll wait for weigh-ins. Her cardio isn't bad as she kind of just takes a couple minutes off here and there to refresh and goes back to flurrying and even that was on crazy short notice. I really like her aggressiveness and think she can definitely compete at 125 with her volume and power if she can avoid being grounded/make the weight.

  35. #35
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    About to tape this one, but I have the same thoughts in my head going in. I've been a fan of Lopez and have always felt like Perez squeeks by without being all that good.
    He definitely lost to Souk IMO and I think Morales beat him as well. The Iuri fight was close at it was a staring contest mostly.

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